JAPANESE TRADING COMPANIES: EVOLVING ROLE IN WORLD TRADE

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CIA-RDP84S00928R000100060003-4
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September 1, 1983
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Approved For Release 2008/03/14: CIA-RDP84SO0928R000100060003-4 Directorate of Intelligence Japanese Trading Companies: Evolving Role in World Trade Secret EA 83-10167 September 1983 Copy 3 0 0 Approved For Release 2008/03/14: CIA-RDP84SO0928R000100060003-4 Approved For Release 2008/03/14: CIA-RDP84SO0928R000100060003-4 Approved For Release 2008/03/14: CIA-RDP84SO0928R000100060003-4 Approved For Release 2008/03/14: CIA-RDP84SO0928R000100060003-4 Directorate of Intelligence Japanese Trading Companies: Evolving Role in World Trade Chief, Northeast Asia Division, OEA queries are welcome and may be directed to the of the Office of East Asian Analysis. Comments and This paper was prepared by Secret EA 83-10167 September 1983 Approved For Release 2008/03/14: CIA-RDP84SO0928R000100060003-4 25X1 25X1 Approved For Release 2008/03/14: CIA-RDP84SO0928R000100060003-4 Secret Japanese Trading Companies: Evolving Role in World Trade[ Summary Japan's general trading companies are at the center of Japanese global Information available economic activity. Close ties to Japan's largest industrial and financial as of 1 September 1983 institutions, worldwide networks of offices, and strong links with Tokyo was used in this report. have helped to make the general trading companies a major force in expanding, developing, and protecting Japan's trade position: ? The top nine firms, with a total foreign trade turnover of roughly $350 billion in 1982, represent roughly 10 percent of world trade. ? These firms have also played a principal role in the rapid expansion of Japanese overseas investment, accounting for 40 percent of the actual outlays in the 1970s and 1980s and facilitating several billion dollars more. Their present position has been achieved by aggressive exploitation of changing international conditions and dedication to improving their clients' competitiveness in international trade arenas. In large part because of the success the Japanese trading companies have achieved, several nations- including South Korea and Brazil-have tried to design similar firms. C The past few years, however, have not been good ones for Japan's trading firms. Their share of Japanese domestic and foreign sales is declining, and, reflecting the recent global recession, profits have fallen sharply. Some observers-notably in the US and Japanese press-have suggested that the trading firms have peaked. Many, for example, point out that the new high-technology companies leading Japan's growth today already have overseas marketing networks and as a result have little use for the trading houses. We disagree; the doomsayers greatly underestimate the underlying strength of the large trading houses, primarily their ability to adjust. One or two may have to be merged into a stronger firm. The major houses, such as Mitsubishi and Mitsui, however, are branching out into third country trade and foreign investment projects that should improve their balance sheets. Secret EA 83-10167 September 1983 Approved For Release 2008/03/14: CIA-RDP84SO0928R000100060003-4 Approved For Release 2008/03/14: CIA-RDP84SO0928R000100060003-4 Most important, Tokyo believes these firms have a key role to play in Japan's future. The Ministry of International Trade and Industry, for instance, hopes to use the firms to help coordinate development efforts in the Although Tokyo and the trading houses have generally worked in tandem, we believe this link will weaken over time. As the companies expand their interests in foreign markets, their equities will probably shift away from a one-dimensional focus on Japan. Much of the overseas expansion is likely to Secret iv 25X1 25X1 Approved For Release 2008/03/14: CIA-RDP84SO0928R000100060003-4 Approved For Release 2008/03/14: CIA-RDP84SO0928R000100060003-4 Secret Japanese Trading Companies: Evolving Role in World Trade Introduction Japan's general trading companies ' are among the world's largest multinational corporations. In 1982 their combined assets reached $87 billion and net sales of the nine largest trading companies totaled $350 billion on trade in over 20,000 different com- modities. These firms accounted for more than half of all Japanese exports and imports; they also supplied much of Japan's domestic market and are expanding their role in third country sales (see table 1). The Japanese Trading Company The Japanese general trading companies in their simplest form act as the principal marketer and supplier for manufacturers, primarily within one industrial group. In the Japanese domestic market, they wholesale 20,000 different items, according to one study. Beyond this, however, they act as advisers to manufacturers on such issues as what and how much to produce. To retailers particularly the smaller outlets-they offer financing and product Evolution of Trading Companies The general trading companies have evolved over the past century in concert with Japan's move from a pre- industrial economy to the world's third-largest eco- nomic force. The nine general trading companies descend from the foreign trading arms of the giant commercial and industrial concerns-the zaibatsu (wealthy cliques) formed in the late 19th century. Economic historians generally agree that these for- eign trade companies were fostered to: ? Reduce the near monopoly in Japanese trade held by foreigners in the 1870s. ? Develop overseas outlets to pay for imports of raw materials, industrial equipment, technology, and other goods for Japan's nascent industries. ? Allow manufacturers to concentrate on production while delegating marketing and supply functions to a core of experts. By the early 20th century, a few huge holding compa- nies-vertically integrated and often under the con- trol of a single family such as Mitsui, Mitsubishi, and Sumitomo-dominated Japanese foreign trade. For example, the Mitsui trading company controlled ' In this paper, the nine largest trading companies will be referred to as general trading companies-the Japanese term sogo shosha means integrated or general trading company-to distinguish them from the multitude of more specialized enterprises engaging in foreign trade. In 1980 there were 12,128 foreign trade concerns, according to the Ministry of Finance; the vast majority were small, employing less than 10 persons. The general trading companies accounted for 45 percent of all assets of enterprises in foreign trade information. For most of Japan's modern industrial period they have been Japan's primary commercial representative abroad, seeking markets for exports and sources for critical raw materials. In doing so they have relied on the same techniques that enhanced their position domestically-a vast communications network, close ties to Japanese financial institutions, and a core of experts, either in particular products or markets. 25 percent of all exports in 1914. These holding companies contributed to Japan's growing military strength and militarism in the 1930s and 1940s. They and their major affiliates were dissolved by the Allies after 1945. Mitsubishi Shoji-a major trading house-was split into 140 separate units. The breakup of the huge trading companies gave the smaller but well-established trading firms, including C. Itoh and Company, Marubeni, and Nichimen the opportunity to expand. Following the end of the Allied Occupation in 1952, wide-ranging measures to spur exports, in- cluding financing, insurance, tax credits, as well as relaxation of the antitrust laws, allowed the old zaibatsu trading firms-Mitsubishi in 1954 and Mit- sui in 1959-to reunite many of their former parts. F 25X1 25X1 25X1 Approved For Release 2008/03/14: CIA-RDP84SO0928R000100060003-4 Approved For Release 2008/03/14: CIA-RDP84SO0928R000100060003-4 Table 1 Nine General Trading Companies Founded Headquarters Sales, Year 1983 Offices Ending March 1983 Percent of All Sales Derived From Trade Total Employees (million yen) Domestic Overseas Associates 1980 1983 Mitsubishi 1950 Corporation Tokyo 14,885,454 NA NA 56 63 9,793 Mitsui and Company 1947 Tokyo 14,147,368 50 153 51 62 9,735 C. Itoh and Company 1949 Osaka 12,490,220 16 Marubeni 1949 Osaka 11,631,385 19 8 26 59 65 8,199 Sumitomo Corporation 1919 Osaka 11,353,908 43 130 46 49 6,897 Nissho-Iwai 1928 Osaka 8,011,878 43 73 57 66 6,006 Toyo Menka 1920 Osaka 3,916,050 13 8 59 63 3,051 Kanematsu- Gosho 1889 Tokyo 3,450,759 7 84 49 51 2,697 It is hard to underestimate the role these trading houses played in Japan's postwar export drive (see figure 1). In the late 1960s, they were the principal agents for Japanese textile and steel producers. Their aggressive export campaigns-particularly their will- ingness to cut prices to improve their position in foreign markets-helped precipitate several US-Japa- nese trade disputes. Role in Industrial Groups Today, general trading companies are at the heart of the seven major enterprise groups that dominate Japan's economy (see table 2): ? The Mitsubishi, Mitsui, and Sumitomo groups con- tain trading houses bearing their names. ? The Daichi Kangyo Bank group, Japan's second- largest industrial group, is helped by C. Itoh and Company, with Kanematsu-Gosho playing an im- portant supporting role. ? Marubeni is the leader of the Fuyo group, while the Sanwa Bank group is headed by the trading firm Nissho-Iwai. ? Toyo Menka is the leader of the Tokai Bank group. The trading companies do not have as much power as the large banks within the groups, but banks and trading companies operate closely in establishing new ventures and organizing group projects (see figure 2). If the bank and trading house within a group agree on a project or policy, the other companies will undoubt- 25X1 25X1 25X1 25X1 I Approved For Release 2008/03/14: CIA-RDP84SO0928R000100060003-4 Approved For Release 2008/03/14: CIA-RDP84SO0928R000100060003-4 Figure 1 Net Sales, General Trading Companies, 1965-83 Table 2 Group Association of General Trading Companies Industrial Group Trading Companies Mitsubishi Mitsubishi Corporation Daichi Kangyo Bank C. Itoh and Company a, Kanematsu-Gosho b Mitsui Mitsui and Company Fuyo Marubeni Sumitomo Sumitomo Corporation Sanwa Bank Nissho-Iwai, Nichimen Tokai Bank Toyo Menka c a C. Itoh gravitated away from Sumitomo group to DKB group, but also absorbed Ataka and Company in 1977-a Sumitomo group member. b Kanamatu-Gosho belonged to Kangyo Bank Group and Nissho to Dai-Ichi Bank group before the banks merged in 1971. Major shareholder in Kanematsu-Gosho is Tokyo Bank. c Toyo Menka also has close connections with Mitsui Group- separated from Mitsui and Company in 1920. Relations between the general trading companies and the other traders are frequently close. Although some major industrial firms such as Toyota Motors have successfully developed large export corporations to handle their products, many of the specialized trading companies-dealing in a narrow range of products- are closely related to the general trading houses either directly or through their group affiliation. For exam- ple, in addition to Mitsubishi Corporation, the Mitsu- bishi group includes such specialized trading firms as Tokyo Sangyo and Kinsho-Mataichi for machinery, Ryoden Trading and Kanagawa Electric for electrical appliances, and Meiwa Trading for chemicals. The combined sales of these six companies total about 6 percent of Mitsubishi's sales. They work closely with the general trading company in arranging export, third country, and domestic deals. Forces of Change Helped by their position in the groups, support from Tokyo, and an extensive communications network, the general trading companies continue to play a unique role of supplier, marketer, financer, merchant banker, and source of information for Japan. Nonetheless, the companies have had to adjust to significant change, in large part driven by the openness of the Japanese- economy compared with the 1950s and 1960s. These changes have included: ? The rapid overseas expansion of Japanese manufac- turers and banks, reducing their dependence on the trading companies. ? Soft demand in Japan for products usually supplied by the trading houses, such as iron ore, oil, and coal. ? Slack world markets for those exports normally handled by trading companies-steel, petrochemi- cals, textiles. ? Alternative sources of trade financing, particularly from foreign banks, available to Japanese compa- Approved For Release 2008/03/14: CIA-RDP84SO0928R000100060003-4 Approved For Release 2008/03/14: CIA-RDP84SO0928R000100060003-4 Table 3 Sales by Sector of Six Major Trading Companies Percent of Total Sales Sales in 1982 1971 1976 1981 1982 (billion yen) Domestic 57.3 47.2 41.6 38.9 5,711 Exports 16.2 17.0 17.6 18.8 2,762 Imports 22.3 28.5 32.9 33.3 4,887 Third country 4.2 7.3 7.8 9.0 1,326 Mitsui a Domestic 53.4 52.0 42.8 42.5 5,623 Exports 22.9 19.6 20.0 19.4 2,569 Imports 20.2 20.9 23.3 24.1 3,188 Third country 3.5 7.5 13.9 14.0 1,845 C. Itoh Domestic 58.4 52.7 46.0 43.5 5,362 Exports 15.1 19.9 20.6 18.7 2,307 Imports 20.1 20.2 22.6 23.2 2,859 Third country 6.3 7.2 10.8 14.7 1,808 Domestic 59.7 44.2 37.6 36.0 4,160 Exports 19.3 26.4 26.0 27.1 3,131 Imports 18.3 18.5 19.2 18.9 2,183 Third country 2.7 10.9 17.2 18.0 2,074 Sumitomo Domestic 61.5 53.4 52.8 50.8 5,573 Exports 19.2 22.0 21.3 25.9 2,837 Imports 16.0. 14.5 16.6 15.3 1,677 Third country 3.3 10.1 9.3 8.0 878 Nissho-Iwai Domestic 51.5 46.2 40.2 37.4 2,782 Exports 15.7 23.8 17.8 18.1 1,345 Imports 25.6 20.3 28.2 27.4 2,037 Third country 7.2 9.7 13.8 17.1 1,268 a Figures for the year ending 31 March, except for Mitsui, where the year ends 30 September except in 1982. Nowhere is the change more apparent than in the Japanese domestic sector. Roughly 40 to 50 percent of sales for the top six general trading companies still come from goods sold by producers to wholesalers or retailers within Japan. This share, however, has been declining. Nearly 60 percent of Mitsubishi sales were domestic in 1971; in 1982 these transactions made up only 39 percent. For the largest firms, only Sumitomo looked to domestic sales for more than 50 percent of turnover in 1982 (see table 3). Part of this decline in domestic sales as a share of the total reflects the sharp increase in the value of foreign trade-particularly oil-in recent years. Another, however, is the slowdown in Japan's domestic econo- my. In 1971-75, for example, wholesale turnover increased at a 17-percent annual rate; since 1976 the rate has slowed to 6 percent. Diversification Changes in the Japanese domestic market have helped push the companies to enter other sectors, including overseas investments, third country trade, and project development activities. In addition, the companies have shifted away from dependence on a few product lines such as steel (see figure 3). In the early 1950s, Mitsui derived more than half o its sales from foodstuffs and Sumitomo depended on metals for 62 percent of its sales. Today, no trader relies on one product area for more than one-third of sales. Europe. Third Country Trade One direction in which the companies have moved is to act as brokers in third country trade-moving goods between countries other than Japan. These firms have a clear advantage in this area with their vast communications networks and their links to banks that provide trade financing (see figure 4). Reflecting these advantages, the trading houses now sell Indonesian timber to Western Europe, Romanian wine in Southeast Asia, and US machinery to Eastern 25X1 25X1 25X1 25X1 Approved For Release 2008/03/14: CIA-RDP84SO0928R000100060003-4 Figure 2 The Mitsubishi Group Approved For Release 2008/03/14: CIA-RDP84SO0928R000100060003-4 1u LU ME= Approved For Release 2008/03/14: CIA-RDP84SO0928R000100060003-4 Approved For Release 2008/03/14: CIA-RDP84SO0928R000100060003-4 Secret Oil and the Trading Companies Trading in crude oil became one of the most impor- tant sectors of trading company activity in the late 1970s as the traders helped bridge the gap that - resulted from severe cuts in exports to Japan by the major international oil companies during the Iranian crisis. Tokyo's re- strictions on foreign firms dealing in oil prior to 1978- limiting ownership of refining and distribu- tion networks to Japanese-owned firms-helped con- vince the international firms to ship their scarce supply of oil elsewhere. Trading companies initially relied on spot deals to offset cutbacks by the oil companies, but they soon concluded longer term agreements with the state oil corporations of producing countries. Direct deals rose to 45 percent of oil imports in 1980, compared with 21 percent in 1978. Such deals now account for over half the crude oil handled by the nine general trading companies (see table 4): The firms have been complementing downstream oil operations-importing, refining, distributing, bunker- ing, and stockpiling-by securing their own supplies of crude by investing in exploration and production, both at home and abroad. However, the trading houses have also kept their ties to the major interna- 25X1 tional oil companies. Mitsui is loosely tied to Exxon and Mobil and Mitsubishi to Shell and Getty. Getty owns half of Mitsubishi Oil Company and is one of 16 independents supplying crude oil, mainly Indonesian, to Japan. Almost 50 percent of the crude handled by 25X1 Mitsubishi Corporation came via the international majors in 1981. 25X1 Trading companies are active in other energy product areas such as rapidly growing imports of liquefied natural gas (LNG), mainly from Indonesia. Holdings in joint liquefication/marketing consortia in Indone- sia involve Nissho-Iwai-with a 10 percent interest- and six other general trading companies. Mitsubishi 25X1 owns one-third of a major project in Brunei, and Mitsui has major holdings in Abu Dhabi Gas Lique- ? The general trading companies handle the bulk of crude supplies arranged directly between producers and the independent Japanese refiners, which for the most part rely on the general trading companies for financial and organizational resources. ? They are also involved in the government-to-govern- ment deals, where the producing state and Japanese officials negotiate long-term contracts. Such ar- rangements are in effect in Mexico, China, Peru, Iraq, and Indonesia. the value of third country transactions by the nine leading companies reached $60 billion in 1981, or about 3.1 percent of world exports. The trading houses posted sales gains in third country trade of 52 percent in 1979, 33 percent in 1980, and 23 percent in 1981 despite a general slackening of world trade. These transactions have increased steadi- ly since the early 1970s. In 1971 third country trade fication Company. accounted for only 4 percent of all sales for Mitsubi- shi Corporation; in 1982 the share was 9 percent. Marubeni was the largest third country trader, with 18 percent of all sales from third country trade in 25X1 I 25X1 25X1 25X1 Approved For Release 2008/03/14: CIA-RDP84SO0928R000100060003-4 Approved For Release 2008/03/14: CIA-RDP84SO0928R000100060003-4 Table 4 Japan: Crude Oil Imports by Supplier Volume Percent Share Volume Percent Share Volume Percent Share Volume Percent Share Volume Percent Share Major eight oil companies 3,064 65.8 2,728 56.4 1,968 44.5 1,457 40.7 1,357 33.3 Independent oil companies 168 3.6 111 2.3 123 2.8 131 3.7 166 4.1 Direct deal/government-to- government arrangements a 963 20.7 1,531 31.7 1,980 44.9 1,669 46.7 2,294 56.4 Japanese producers overseas a 460 9.9 463 9.6 343 7.8 319 8.9 251 6.2 Total 4,655 100.0 4,833 100.0 4,414 100.0 3,576 100.0 4,068 100.0 a Trading companies play leading role in these transactions. Source: Oil Industry Reports. Plant Exports Another direction the companies have tried-with less success-has been the export of complete industrial plants. In many of these cases, the firms put together a package involving the machinery, spare parts, train- ing, and financing. In 1983, plant sales accounted for almost 24 percent of all exports handled by Japan's leading traders. The leader was Mitsui and Company, with sales of nearly $3 billion, according to an industry source. nies had expected. According to press sources, faced with competition from other developed countries and the long leadtime required, Japanese trading companies are no longer making as extensive an effort as in the past to expand sales of large plants. Another factor has been the LDC debt problem. Traders have been leery of extending large loans, and the LDCs have been scaling back development proj- ects. In 1981 C. Itoh deemphasized this effort follow- ing heavy losses in Algeria and China. In announcing their cutbacks, other firms have cited the economic difficulties in Eastern Europe, especially Poland. For all of the trading houses, new orders for plant exports to oil-producing countries were down sharply in 1982, as Saudi Arabia, Qatar, and Venezuela adjusted to lower oil revenues. Overseas Investment 2 Trading companies have played a key role in increas- ing Japanese investments overseas. Five of the top seven companies involved in overseas investment are trading companies; only Kanematsu-Gosho and Ni- chimen are not among the top 20 Japanese overseas investors (see table 5). General trading companies accounted for more than 40 percent of overseas investments in the 1970s and early 1980s. In the past these outlays have been in: ? Large-scale resource and energy-related industrial projects. ? The relocation of Japan's basic industries such as aluminum smelting, petrochemicals, pulp and paper, and energy-related industries. 25X1 25X1 25X1 Approved For Release 2008/03/14: CIA-RDP84SO0928R000100060003-4 Approved For Release 2008/03/14: CIA-RDP84S00928R000100060003-4 Secret Figure 3 Sales by Product Area, 1961 and 1983 Metals Others Foodstuffs Chemicals Machinery Metals Others Foodstuffs Chemicals Fuels Metals Others Foodstuffs Chemicals Machinery Others Fuels Foodstuffs Chemicals Machinery Metals Others Metals Others Textiles Textiles Machinery M l eta s \ Materials and others 17 48 Textiles 17 Foodstuffs M hi 7 6 ac nery 11 Textiles Approved For Release 2008/03/14: CIA-RDP84S00928R000100060003-4 Approved For Release 2008/03/14: CIA-RDP84SO0928R000100060003-4 Table 5 Top 20 Japanese Firms in Overseas Investment as of March 1982 Outstanding Balance of Investment a 1 Mitsui and Company 922.9 2 Mitsubishi Corporation 879.5 3 Iran Chemical Development 792.0 4 C. Itoh and Company 518.5 5 Nissan Motor 441.8 6 Marubeni Corporation 439.0 7 Sumitomo Corporation 390.0 8 Sanko Steamship 318.5 9 Nippon Asahan Aluminum 312.4 10 Matsushita Electric Industry 303.6 11 Toshiba Corporation 290.8 12 Japan Leasing 283.5 13 Kawasaki Steel 266.3 14 Honda Motor 258.6 15 Toyo Menka 237.3 16 Sony 222.9 17 Nissho Iwai Corporation 221.3 18 Kawasaki Heavy Industries 217.3 19 Toray Industries 215.7 20 Fujitsu 205.6 a Calculated based on the 1982 average exchange rate of 249 yen to the dollar. Figures are based on company reports of overseas investments and not official data. In the past few years the trading houses have become more active in establishing overseas manufacturing enterprises. For example, Mitsubishi Corporation re- cently expanded its plastic business in the United States by purchases of two polyvinyl chloride pipe plants in a joint venture with its US subsidiary. The plants will service automobile and electric product makers and the market for agricultural irrigation pipes. According to press reports, Mitsubishi hopes the new venture will make up for flagging chemical exports from Japan. With their extensive contacts overseas, the trading houses are also assisting small and medium-size Japanese manufacturing firms find joint venture partners. Hard Times Despite these diversification efforts, the general trad- ing companies have found the past few years difficult. Last year was particularly harsh; revenue and profits dropped substantially for the first time, and sales growth was below the rate of inflation. The worldwide recession, high interest rates in the United States, the financial crises in developing countries, and sluggish growth in the domestic market all contributed to this drop. For the first time since it was established in Approved For Release 2008/03/14: CIA-RDP84SO0928R000100060003-4 Approved For Release 2008/03/14: CIA-RDP84S00928R000100060003-4 Figure 4 Japan's Nissho-Iwai and Company and Its Overseas Trading Network,. 1981 ^ Head office 0 Head office subsidiary p Branch ? Branch subsidiary o Office 506026 (A03281) 9-83 The united Slates Government has not reoognlaed the inoorporalion of Estonia, Latvia, end Lithuania into the Soviet Union, Other boundary representation is not necessanty authoritative. Anchorage Bellevue ngeles Denvers D Chicago St Louis? Houston onterrey 11 Secret Belo Cruz Hort Sao ^L Paulo Secret Approved For Release 2008/03/14: CIA-RDP84S00928R000100060003-4 Approved For Release 2008/03/14: CIA-RDP84SO0928R000100060003-4 Secret In 1977 Ataka and Company-then Japan's tenth- largest trading company-collapsed and, with the assistance of the Sumitomo Bank, was absorbed by C. Itoh. Ataka-which had emerged as a general trading company from a background as a specialized steel trader-sought to diversify into other areas. To the company's ultimate ruin, management-particu- larly the home headquarters-failed to fully super- vise the efforts. In the early 1970s Ataka's US subsidiary agreed to act as the agent for the Newfoundland Refining Corpora- tion in Canada to buy crude oil from British Petroleum in the Middle East and to deliver it to Newfoundland for processing. In addition to letters of credit from Japanese banks, Ataka also provided Newfoundland Refining Corporation with a $42 million loan without collateral, not repayable until 1985. In addition, the letters of credit issued by the banks had provided no guarantee that payments would actually be made. When the flow of oil from the Middle East was cut off, Ataka piled up massive debts-initially covered by its US subsidiary by drawing on its credit in US banks. C. Itoh, with the help of the Sumitomo Bank, eventually settled the outstanding bills. 1947, Mitsui and Company, Limited cut employee salaries and did not pay dividends. The consolidated net profit of Mitsubishi Corporation in the year ending March 1983 dropped 25 percent, the second straight year of decline The lower ranking trading companies, Toyo Menka Kaisha, Limited; Nichimen Company, Limited; and Kanematsu-Gosho, Limited are in serious difficulty; speculation in the press is that at least one will fail. Japanese press reports also cite Kanematsu-Gosho, Marubeni, Nichimen, and Nissho-Iwai as potential merger partners. This would not be a new pattern for the major trading companies. A number of the big nine are products of such mergers-Nissho joined with Iwai, and Kanematsu absorbed Gosho in the mid-1960s, while C. Itoh and Company absorbed the virtually bankrupt trading firm Ataka in 1977 In the short run, however, the firms are attempting to deal with the problems by reducing overhead ex- penses. C. Itoh transferred 15 percent of its adminis- trative employees to the operational sector in 1981 and Mitsubishi has imposed an early retirement sys- tem. Despite the need the companies perceive to attract employees from increasingly technical back- grounds to assist in the development of their new sections, the number of new graduates hired from universities has been reduced'. Prospects The Japanese and US media have recently focused on the problems facing the trading firms, suggesting that their position in Japan has declined sharply and that this trend will continue. Although the trading houses have increased their efforts to enter new industries such as biotechnology and optical fibers, many ob- servers believe these industries are not likely to be of much help in the short run. 25X 25X We believe these reports are greatly overstated and ignore the companies' underlying strengths. The size and scope of the companies' activities should give them the resources to weather short-term problems, in part brought on by the extended global recession. A revival in world trade should improve balance sheets, and we believe the companies have laid the ground- work for the future by strengthening their overseas networks of offices and subsidiaries and attempting to 25X improve their position in third country trade and overseas investment. Perhaps more importantly, the Japanese Government believes these firms have an important future role to play in developing industries Tokyo considers vital. According to press reports, the Ministry of Interna- 25X tional Trade and Industry is urging six leading gener- al trading companies to participate in the new 150- seat jet civilian aircraft project in cooperation with three leading Japanese aircraft makers and Boeing of the United States. In part, MITI hopes the trading companies' international marketing network will 25X 25X1 Approved For Release 2008/03/14: CIA-RDP84SO0928R000100060003-4 Approved For Release 2008/03/14: CIA-RDP84S00928R000100060003-4 This link between government policy and trading company activities has always been strong. Tokyo has tried to keep the trading companies from working at cross-purposes with Japanese foreign economic policy by a careful mix of controls, persuasion, and incentives: Tokyo made liberal use of subsidized export credits to assist the trading firms in expanding sales in the Middle East and in funding raw material develop- ment projects in the United States and in Southeast Asia in the 1970s. To help Japan's balance of payments in the mid- 1970s, the government induced the trading compa- nies to borrow abroad by relaxing restrictions on capital inflows. MITI-which played a leading role in assisting the Japanese trading companies to develop their position in Japan and in world trade-came under increased pressure in 1974 from antitrust groups such as Ja- pan's Fair Trade Commission to reduce the influence of the trading companies in the Japanese economy. For the most part, the Ministry of International Trade and Industry has been able to blunt domestic criticism of the trading companies by citing their importance in maintaining Japan's competitive position. To placate the critics, Tokyo has limited the close ties between big banks and trading houses by establishing loan ceilings. Trading companies have sometimes found themselves caught between Tokyo's policies and what they per- ceive to be their own best interest. Nonetheless, the government and trading firms in general have held similar foreign policy goals and for the most part manage to work in tandem. Implications for the United States How the trading firms evolve will have a significant impact on the United States. Although their position in the Japanese domestic market will probably contin- ue to slip, the trading houses still will have the potential to spur imports or act as a trade barrier. As their investments in the United States increase, the trading companies will be inclined to move more US goods to Japan and other countries. On the negative side, however, the trading houses are intimately con- nected to many small Japanese firms which have strongly resisted the lowering of trade restrictions More importantly, as these firms continue their thrust into more complex international transactions, their relationship with the Japanese Government will change and perhaps weaken. We believe the trading firms will find it more difficult to identify as closely as We believe the present trend toward expanding gener- al trading company operations in the United States will continue. The trading houses place particular 25X1 25X1 25X1 25X1 25X1 25X1 25X1 25X1 25X1 Approved For Release 2008/03/14: CIA-RDP84S00928R000100060003-4 Approved For Release 2008/03/14: CIA-RDP84SO0928R000100060003-4 Approved For Release 2008/03/14: CIA-RDP84SO0928R000100060003-4 Approved For Release 2008/03/14: CIA-RDP84S00928R000100060003-4 emphasis on the United States as the most stable and lucrative market for investment and development. The US subsidiary of Mitsubishi Corporation has grown from $7.8 billion in total assets in 1977 to $13.9 billion in 1983. The US subsidiary of Mitsui and Company is already the fourth-largest exporter of US goods. At the same time, joint ventures linking US-based firms in Japan with the trading houses are expanding. In September 1982 IBM Japan, Limited and Kane- matsu-Gosho formed a joint venture to market office equipment in Japan. According to press reports, in March 1983 IBM Japan and Mitsubishi Corporation agreed to work together on a satellite communication system for business services in Japan. Reflecting their already large and probably growing equities in the United States, the trading firms may lean more toward the United States in disagreements between Washington and Tokyo, as they did in the recent issue of sanctions against the Soviets. On the other hand, these companies' growing role in third country markets could make them more difficult to 25X1 Approved For Release 2008/03/14: CIA-RDP84S00928R000100060003-4 Approved For Release 2008/03/14: CIA-RDP84SO0928R000100060003-4 Secret Secret Approved For Release 2008/03/14: CIA-RDP84SO0928R000100060003-4