NATIONAL INTELLIGENCE DAILY FRIDAY 22 JANUARY 1982

Document Type: 
Collection: 
Document Number (FOIA) /ESDN (CREST): 
CIA-RDP84T00301R000100010069-1
Release Decision: 
RIPPUB
Original Classification: 
T
Document Page Count: 
9
Document Creation Date: 
December 21, 2016
Document Release Date: 
August 28, 2008
Sequence Number: 
69
Case Number: 
Publication Date: 
January 22, 1982
Content Type: 
REPORT
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PDF icon CIA-RDP84T00301R000100010069-1.pdf233.49 KB
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Approved For Release 2008/08/28: CIA-RDP84T00301 8000100010069-1 ret Central Intelligence r LI National Intelligence Daily Friday 22 January 1982 State Dept. review completed Top Secret CO NID 82-018JX 22 January X82 COPY 249 Approved For Release 2008/08/28: CIA-RDP84TOO301 R000100010069-1 Approved For Release 2008/08/28: CIA-RDP84TOO301 R0001 00010069-1 25X1 Approved For Release 2008/08/28: CIA-RDP84TOO301 R000100010069-1 Approved For Release 2008/08/28: CIA-RDP84T00301 R0001 00010069-1 Top Secret o ARGENTINA-CHILE: Treaty Repudiation Argentina's denunciation yesterday of its settlement treaty th h' Z w2. L. i e was a bola effort to force Vatican mediation of the foreign arms purchases by the two countries. Argentina put the best diplomatic face on its de- nunciation by coupling it with its pledge to negotiate a new treaty with Chile, its reaffirmation of faith in the 25X1 Vatican mediation, and its call for a suspension of Beagle Channel dispute toward a political compromise. Buenos Aires' announcement is the latest step in the drawn out talks that followed Vatican intervention in 1979 in the dispute. Ever since the Pope announced his 1980 proposals--which heavily favor Chilean claims in the im- portant offshore region--Argentina has been caught in a conundrum. It wants to avoid rejecting outright the Vatican position and yet--because of hardline military sentiment--judges itself unable to accept he proposals Comment: Argentina's eventual denunciation of the treaty was anticipated, but its timing puts unexpected pressure on Vatican mediators, as Chile has been pressing for final action. Whatever Chile's immediate reaction to yesterday's announcement--and implicit warning--it is likely Santiago ultimately will have to countenance some political compromise of its strong legal case. Otherwise, it will face protracted controversy--and possible military conflict--with its dominant neighbor. 25X1 Argentina's call for a freeze on arms purchases is especially self-serving. Chilean military acquisitions since 1978 have narrowed Argentina's military advantage, and a halt would enable Buenos Aires' superior domestic weapons production capability to open a wider gap again. 22 January 1982 Approved For Release 2008/08/28: CIA-RDP84T00301 R000100010069-1 Approved For Release 2008/08/28: CIA-RDP84TOO301 R0001 00010069-1 25X1 Top Secret ,q. Poland: Pastoral Letter . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 1 22 January 1982 Approved For Release 2008/08/28: CIA-RDP84TOO301 R000100010069-1 Approved For Release 2008/08/28: CIA-RDP84TOO301 R000100010069-1 25X1 Poland's bishops on Sunday will read a statement calling for an end to martial Zaw. Local authorities in Poznan are showin_p 3 greater concern about security. A letter from Poland's bishops to be read in churches on Sunday calls on the regime to rescind its repressive (! martial law measures to avoid inciting violence or "even 7 civil war." The message emphatically repeats the Church's /.call for the release of detainees, an end to the regime's "verification" campaign, and the restoration of indepen- dent trade unions and youth groups. Comment: The pastoral letter, which apparently re- sulted from Archbishop Glemp's meeting Tuesday with senior bishops, gives broader dissemination to Glemp's fears that the current impasse in 25X1 Poland cou cause serious social turmoil. The Church leaders probably hope to impress upon Premier Jaruzeiski the urgency of announcing significant concessions in his policy address now scheduled for Monday. The bishops may have hit the point, even harder in their personal The US Consulate in Poznan reports signs of increasing concern by the local authorities and speculates there may j be a significant shift under way in the public mood. The security forces are making more frequent checks of pedes- trians' documents, are continuously manning roadblocks V around the city, and are watching more intently the local universities, which remain largely closed. The governor, who had been away for a week, seemed uninformed of security arrangements and claimed local interior ministry officials Comment: The governor's apparent ignorance of the security situation lends credence to other evidence that security authorities are playing the key role in running the country. If the mood in Poznan is turning sour, it would be a significant development. 25X1 22 January 1982 Top Secret Approved For Release 2008/08/28: CIA-RDP84TOO301 R000100010069-1 Approved For Release 2008/08/28: CIA-RDP84T00301 R0001 00010069-1 Poznan has been one of the quieter areas in Poland since the imposition of martial law, even though it houses several large universities and important industrial 25X1 that Poznan was under control it allowed Western journal- ists to visit the city as part of their first guided tour outside of Warsaw. The EC Commission has decided to withdraw plans to provide the martial law regime with an additional $260 million in subsidized food sales. Instead, the Commission will increase aid to nongovernmental organizations which it believes can better channel humanitarian aid directly to the civilian population. 25X1 Comment: The Commission's decision probably re- flects an assessment by the member states that continued concessionary food sales would undermine the recent NATO decision on food aid. Furthermore, EC countries may wish to be seen as having taken responsible action before the North Atlantic Council meeting tomorrow in order to de- flect possible criticism. The decision also betrays concern that the regime is manipulatin the distribution of subsidized food for its own ends. 25X1 22 January 1982 --continued Top Secret Approved For Release 2008/08/28: CIA-RDP84T00301 R000100010069-1 Approved For Release 2008/08/28: CIA-RDP84TOO301 R0001 00010069-1 Soviet Union Baltic Military District Carpath Military District Approved For Release 2008/08/28: CIA-RDP84TOO301 R000100010069-1 Approved For Release 2008/08/28: CIA-RDP84TOO301 R000100010069-1-X1 Next 15 Page(s) In Document Denied Iq Approved For Release 2008/08/28: CIA-RDP84TOO301 R000100010069-1 Top Secret Approved For Release 2008/08/28: CIA-RDP84TOO301 R000100010069-1 = .,= Approved For Release 2008/08/28: CIA-RDP84TOO301 R000100010069-1