NATIONAL INTELLIGENCE DAILY (CABLE) 22 JANUARY 1982

• Document Type: CREST
• Collection: General CIA Records
• Document Number (FOIA) /ESDN (CREST): CIA-RDP84T00301R000100010070-9
• Release Decision: RIPPUB
• Original Classification: T
• Document Page Count: 11
• Document Creation Date: December 20, 2016
• Sequence Number: 70
• Content Type: REPORT

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a mss` N Director of Top Secret
Central 25X1
Intelligence
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Italy:
Terrorist Attacks on US Target . . . . . . . . . .
. 2
Namibia:
Negotiations on Independence . . . . . . . . . .
. 4
Pakistan: Plan To End Army Rule . . . . . . . . . . . . .
NATO: Status of Spanish Membership . . . . . . . . . . .
. 5
. 6
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ITALY: Terrorist Attacks on US Targets
//The US Consulate in Milan and three US commercial enter-
prises in Rome have been targets of violent attacks during the past
week. //
//An organization calling itself the "Avant Garde
Communist Nuclei" has claimed responsibility for an un-
detonated bomb found at the Consulate. A self-styled
"Communist Group for Proletarian Internationalism" says
that it set off bombs that damaged the office in Rome of
the Italian Chamber of Commerce for the US and a Ford
Motor Company showroom and started fires at another Ford
facility and at an office of the Hoover Appliance Company.
Neither group has surfaced before.//
Comment: //The choice of targets, the timing of
the attacks, the similarity of the names of the two
groups, and the language in recent Red Brigade state-
ments all suggest that the Red Brigades' kidnaping of
General Dozier may have been the catalyst for these ac-
tions. Groups previously known by other names could be
responding to the Brigades' call for unity among Italian
terrorists and for violence against US officials and
concerns.//
//The attacks, on the other hand, could have been
carried out by individuals or groups hoping merely to
capitalize on the publicity created by the Dozier inci-
dent. In either case, additional attacks by such groups
are possible in the weeks ahead.//
Top Secret
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NAMIBIA: Negotiations on Independence
The Frontline States and the South-West Africa People's Orga-
nization probably will reach a hard-won agreement at a meeting in
Lusaka tomorrow on the constitutional principles. for an independent
Namibia proposed by the Western Contact Group, but prospects for
subsequent steps.in the peace process are uncertain.
//The major point of dispute among the African
states is SWAPO's strong dissatisfaction with the Contact
Group's proposal that half the constitutional assembly
be filled by proportional representation and the other
half by contests in single-representative constituencies.
SWAPO believes this proposal is designed to limit its
role in the assembly. Most of the Frontline States have
indicated that they are prepared to accept the principles
with little or no change.//
Comment: //The next phase of the negotiations will
focus on the methods to be used in the internationally
supervised truce and election and is likely to be more
difficult. Pretoria's recent public criticism of remarks
made by UN Secretary General Perez de Cuellar underscores
its distrust of the UN involvement in the settlement and
indicates that South Africa will be less flexible in the
negotiations.//
//Negotiation also will be hampered by divisions
among Frontline members. Some believe that Tanzanian
President Nyerere is pushing acceptance of the Contact
Group's proposals merely to increase his own international
prestige.//
//Zambia's cooperation may be affected by its neigh-
bors' refusal to sign a mutual trade agreement that
Lusaka promoted last month. Angola, probably with Mozam-
bique's backing, continues to lobby to include Libya,
Algeria, and Ethiopia in future Frontline meetings, a
move opposed by Tanzania and Botswana.//
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PAKISTAN: Plan To End Army Rule
//President Zia apparently is considering sweeping changes
that would end overt military rule and enable him to serve as a
civilian leader, possibly through elections.//
Comment: //Although Zia has been under increased
pressure from within the Army to end martial law and hold
elections, he will move cautiously. If the Federal Advi-
sory Council established earlier this month appears
to be succeeding, the President could call for a refer-
endum to legitimize the new structure or work out a plan
in the Council for general elections that would deny
participation to political parties. If Zia feels
threatened, however, he could use the Council to put off
elections and give himself another extension as Army
chief.//
The President and the generals evidently believe
that they run less of a risk of losing control from a
phased loosening of Army rule than from a continuation
of the present order. Zia would face an element of
uncertainty, however, since he would give up the most
powerful post in the country if he resigned from the
Army
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NATO: Status of Spanish Membership
//West Germany is likely to suspend its normal ratification
procedures to speed Spain's accession to NATO, but delays by the
Netherlands and Greece may stall the process.//
//The West German Foreign Office now believes that
final action on the application will be taken in April,
well before the NATO ministerial meeting in May. This
news, however, had little initial effect in the Nether-
lands, where the Socialists are using procedural tactics
to demonstrate their concerns about Spain's membership.
Foreign Minister Van Der Stoel predicts that it could
take up to a year for the parliament to complete rati-
fication.//
//The situation in Greece also is troublesome. The
government probably will respond only to sustained Allied
pressure to act on the application. Spain's backers,
however, do not want to approach Athens until they can
present a carefully timed united front.//
//Although most of the Allies have now indicated
their ability to approve membership by May, Spain would
prefer postponement of the NATO meeting if all members
have not ratified accession. The minority government in
Madrid has committed its prestige to joining NATO.//
Comment: //If the ratification process drags on
and becomes politicized in other capitals, domestic
opposition in Spain to NATO membership could grow and
perhaps lead Madrid to withdraw its application.//
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 Ti :)p Secret
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