NATIONAL INTELLIGENCE DAILY (CABLE)

• Document Type: CREST
• Collection: General CIA Records
• Document Number (FOIA) /ESDN (CREST): CIA-RDP84T00301R000100010074-5
• Release Decision: RIPPUB
• Original Classification: T
• Document Page Count: 11
• Document Creation Date: December 20, 2016
• Sequence Number: 74
• Content Type: REPORT

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Director of Top Secret
Central
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Contents
Venezuela-Nicaragua: Strained Relations. . . . . . . . . 2
Arab States: Foreign Ministers' Meeting. . . . . . . . .
5
Mexico-USSR-Cuba: Possible Oil Swap. . . . . . . . . . .
6
India: Impact of Na
Ghana: Political De
tionwide Strike . . . . . . . . . . .
velopments . . . . . . . . . . . . . .
6
7
USSR-US: Pentecosta
ls' Hunger Strike . . . . . . . . . .
8
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^
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The recent hardening of Venezuela's attitude toward the
Nicaraguan Government does not portend a break in relations.
Comment: The Herrera government's rapid moves
against the Nicaraguan diplomats and the rhetorical ex-
changes marking Sandinista charges of Venezuelan compli-
city in antigovernment plots is reminiscent of the manner
in which Caracas reacted in 1980 to Cuba's treatment of
Venezuelan personnel in Havana. Those steps led to the
reduction of representation in both countries. Current
political and economic considerations outweigh any short-
term satisfaction Venezuela might gain from breaking
relations.
Venezuela's backing of the Sandinista regime pro-
vides a useful counter to domestic criticism of its sup-
port for El Salvador. Moreover, the Herrera government
lacks broad support at home and will not risk a politi-
cal battle with the opposition party, which supports the
Sandinistas.
Caracas provides substantial economic aid to Managua
and recently pledged an additional $15 million for 1982.
The Venezuelans continue to believe that such aid demon-
strates the nonpolitical nature of their extensive for-
eign aid program. They also believe such aid gives them
economic leverage in Nicaragua and assists those the
view as moderate members of the Sandinista regime.
Top Secret
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ARAB STATES: Foreign Ministers' Meeting
Arab League Foreign Ministers will meet in special
session in Tunis tomorrow to discuss further action
against Israel's annexation of the Golan Heights. The
meeting, originally called by Syria for late December,
was postponed to await the outcome of the UN Security
Council debate that concluded on Wednesday.
Comment: The Syrians are unlikely to obtain Arab
agreement for any concrete actions against Israel. The
meeting, however, will serve Syria's interests by keep-
ing Arab attention focused on the Golan Heights issue
and afford another opportunity for urging increased Arab
political and financial backing of Syria. Damascus also
will push for an Arab summit and for Arab support for a
special session of the UN General Assembly to debate the
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MEXICO-USSR-CUBA: Possible Oil Swap
Representatives of PEMEX, Mexico's state-owned oil
company, and Soviet officials are meeting in Mexico City
apparently to discuss a longstanding proposal for Mexico
to supply Cuba with oil in return for Soviet petroleum
deliveries to Mexico's European clients.
Comment: The new Mexican Ambassador to the USSR,
former PEMEX director Jorge Diaz Serrano, may have
provided the impetus for renewed interest. Transporta-
tion savings in an oil swap would offer both Mexico and
the USSR limited financial benefits. In addition, the
Mexican Government, might use such an agreement to offset
expected domestic criticism of a -proposed increase in
sales of natural gas to the US.
INDIA: Impact of Nationwide Strike
The one-day national strike that opposition and
labor leaders organized on Tuesday to protest the overn-
ment's antistrike powers was largely ineffective. 25X1
only one-third of the 19 mil- 25X1
lion employees in the modern sector work force took part
and that there was minimal economic disruption. 25X1
Comment: Although the opposition claims it gained
valuable experience in its first effort to coordinate
multiparty trade union agitation, the strike is a sig-
nificant setback for those who are searching for some
means to undermine Prime Minister Gandhi's political
power. Moreover, the government's image probably has
been strengthened by its handling of the situation
through preemptive temporary arrests and the minimum
use of force. Gandhi clearly wants to eschew repres-
sive measures that could build public support for the
opposition.
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GHANA: Political Developments
The new regime is still having difficulty in orga-
nizing a government. A 16-member civilian cabinet, sub-
ordinate to the seven-man Provisional National Defense
Council, was announced on Thursday--three weeks after
the coup. The regime is stressing political action at
the local level by organizing People's Defense Com-
Comment: Like the Council, most members of the
cabinet are obscure individuals, except for the Foreign
Minister, a moderate whose appointment may be intended
to reassure Western governments. The proposed People's
Defense Committees that are being organized to fight
corruption may be the harbinger of efforts to structure
a "new" Ghana. The lack of organization and direction
in the new regime, however, makes it uncertain what the
committees will do.
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USSR-US: Pentecostals' Hunger Strike
The two Soviet Pentecostals that have been on a
hunger strike in the US Embassy in Moscow have said that
as of today they will refuse all liquids.
Comment: The Soviets are unlikely to change their
position that the Pentecostals will have to leave the
Embassy before consideration will be given to their re-
quest to emigrate. The five other members of the reli-
Top Secret
gious group probably would remain in the Embassy even if
one or both of the strikers were removed to a hospital.
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 Top Secret
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