NATIONAL INTELLIGENCE DAILY (CABLE) 29 JANUARY 1982

• Document Type: CREST
• Collection: General CIA Records
• Document Number (FOIA) /ESDN (CREST): CIA-RDP84T00301R000100010094-3
• Release Decision: RIPPUB
• Original Classification: T
• Document Page Count: 14
• Document Creation Date: December 20, 2016
• Sequence Number: 94
• Content Type: REPORT

29 January 1982
G cc
419
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Poland: Attacks on the US . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 1
El Salvador: Results of Sabotage . . . . . . . . . . . . 3
Italy: More Problems Ahead . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 4
Spain: Status of Basque Terrorism . . . . . . . . . . . . 5
EC: Internal Policy Talks Fail . . . . . . . . . . . . . 6
USSR: Chernenko Moves Up . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 7
China: Deng's Whereabouts Still Unknown . . . . . . . . . 8
Liberia: Calming Student Protests . . . . . . . . . . . . 9
Pakistan-India: Talks on Nonagression Pact . . . . . . . 10
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//The regime has begun a propaganda campaign against the US
Government. Last week, Warsaw told Western bankers it would impose
a moratorium on debt payments coming due in 1982. The coal mines
near Katowice in the south are a focus of unrest.//
The authorities appear to have begun a major propa-
ganda campaign against alleged US intelligence activity
in Poland. At a news conference yesterday, internal
security officials charged that US intelligence agents
played a substantial part in creating and supporting
dissident organizations in Poland.
The officials supported their claims by showing
film clips of activity by former US diplomats in Poland.
The same material is being used in a two-part television
series that ended yesterday. Polish media also are
beginning to portray the Solidarity Day television broad-
cast tomorrow as a joint production of the CIA and the
US International Communications Agency.
Comment: These intensified propaganda attacks seem
intended to reduce the impact of the broadcast, undermine
the credibility of all broadcasts controlled by USICA,
and shift the blame for unrest in Poland to the US. They
might also presage increased harassment of US diplomatic
personnel or a renewed crackdown on intellectuals for
alleged links with Western intelligence agencies.
//Warsaw last week told Western bankers that "for
the time being" it would pay no interest or principal
coming due in 1982. This moratorium announcement accom-
panied a promise to pay by 15 February interest due up
to the end of 1981.//
Comment: //The moratorium reflects Warsaw's con-
centration on covering interest arrears for 1981 to com-
plete the private debt rescheduling for last year before
paying any obligations for 1982. The banks probably will
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Top Secret
accept the moratorium until the agreement for 1981 is
concluded, but then they will insist that Poland meet
at least its interest payments for 1982 of nearly $200
million monthly. Warsaw stands little chance of paying
on time and will remain in danger of default.//
A Solidarity activist who recently made an "illegal"
trip to Katowice told that the atmosphere
there is much more militant an in Warsaw. He said
that miners and intellectuals were preparing for violent
resistance in the spring.
Comment: //This report generally dovetails with
Archbishop Glemp's statement to a Western diplomat ear-
lier this week that the Baltic coast, Warsaw, and Silesia
continue to be areas of tension. The region around
Katowice remains a center of resistance to martial law,
in part because of the deaths of miners last month during
clashes with security forces. Silesia is perhaps the
likeliest area for any violence.//
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EL SALVADOR: Results of Sabotage
//The heavy damage to military aircraft at IZopango Airbase
weakens the armed forces' capabilities and confidence and boosts
guerriZZa morale and prestige.//
//Our latest information is that five UH-1H heli-
copters, three C-47 transports, and five MD 450 "Ouragan"
ground attack jet aircraft were destroyed. In addition,
one UH-lH helicopter, one "Ouragan," two C1-47s, and one
Magister fighter-trainer were damaged.//
//Most of the remaining eight UH-1H helicopters and
three C-47s are grounded for varying lengths of time for
repairs. //
Comment: //The fact that charges were strategically
placed--and only on operational aircraft--strongly sug-
gests collaboration by base personnel. No contact with
guerrillas was reported before the explosions or after.//
//In addition to the materiel loss, the incident
will embarrass the armed forces, raise doubts about its
internal security, and generate interservice friction.
The long-term impact on morale will depend on how quickly
aircraft are replaced or repaired and on whether the guer-
rillas can follow up with similar successful operations.//
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The government is buoyed by its rescue of General Dozier, but
it may soon face new challenges from the Red Brigades and from its
coalition partners.
Meanwhile, the leaders of each coalition party will
meet today and tomorrow to review the political situation.
Earlier this month the coalition partners agreed infor-
mally to put off a "crisis" and possible early national
elections until parliament completed its review of the
budget--probably some time in March. The review is
prompted by the recent polemics between the Italian
Communists and Moscow.
Comment: The police have almost certainly dealt a
serious setback to the Red Brigades, but the extent of
the damage will not be clear for some time. Some ter-
rorists may prefer to go underground to escape antici-
pated followup action. The group's leadership, however,
will be anxious to demonstrate its continuing ability
to operate.
As for the political review, there is a growing
current of thought in Italy that the Italian Communists'
dispute with Moscow will enhance their political legiti-
macy. This is most threatening to Socialist leader Craxi,
who is Prime Minister Spadolini's most restless ally.
If Craxi concludes that the Communists' stand could
ultimately translate into votes, he would be inclined to
drop his support for the government. In doing so, he
would hope to precipitate elections before the Communists
can iron out internal stresses brought about by the
polemics with the Soviets.
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SPAIN: Status of Basque Terrorism
//Spanish police have made substantial progress recently in
combating Basque terrorism, but they still face stiff resistance
from the shrinking hard core of activists.//
//A drop in local support for the terrorists, re-
flected in anti-ETA statements made at the end of 1981
by prominent Basque politicians, has made it more diffi-
cult for ETA to mount successful operations.
Comment: //Although the terrorists have been oper-
ating in a more hostile climate for about a year, it
would be premature to discount their capabilities. The
more active "ETA-military" could easily incorporate
hardcore members of the "political-military" wing, who
would oppose a decision to disband.//
//The more militant members of one or both wings
may even feel compelled to increase terrorist operations.
There are some indications that police successes are
largely a matter of luck and that their current optimism
could evaporate if either wing of ETA carried off a spec-
tacular terrorist act. Moreover, popular support for ETA
in the Basque region could revive if Madrid curtails the
region's autonomy in response to the military's concern
about the declining authority of the central government.//
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EC: Internal Policy Talks Fail
Top Secret
//The longstanding disagreement among EC members over
ture and budget policies appears ready to erupt again.//
//EC Foreign Ministers failed earlier this week to
agree on continuation of the special rebate granted to
the UK in May 1980 to limit its excessive contribution
to the EC budget. The Thatcher government, with national
elections and domestic anti-EC sentiment in mind, seeks
a multiyear extension of the arrangement. The other
members contend that the rebate should decrease annually
at a predetermined rate, or at least in proportion to
increases in Community spending for regional development
and other programs in the UK.//
The ministers also could not agree on penalties for
dairy farmers to curb overproduction. EC support to the
dairy industry is the single most expensive program of
the Common Agricultural Policy.
//In addition, the ministers rejected a suggestion by
the EC Commission that the Ten indefinitely defer decisions
on these and related issues, and set the EC summit on
29 and 30 March as the deadline for reaching consensus.
London has hinted that it could block EC farm price
increases this spring if the budget impasse continues.//
//The Ten gradually have retreated from their commit-
ment to overhaul the EC budget--and the Common Agricultural
Policy--before the British rebate expires at the end of
the year. London's determination to secure a long-term
rebate threatens to reopen the dispute
unity during the first half of 1980.//
Comment: //This latest wrangling comes at a time
when it could complicate EC efforts to maintain a unified
stance on the Polish situation and on the Middle East
problem. It also coincides with Greece's tendency to
play a maverick role on major foreign policy issues.
Until now the Ten have managed to keep these issues
largely separate from their internal disputes.//
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USSR: Chernenko Moves Up
The leadership lineup yesterday in the hall where
Suslov lies in state indicates that party Secretary
Chernenko has moved into the number-two spot behind
President Brezhnev in the Politburo. Chernenko stood
next to Brezhnev and ahead of Premier Tikhonov and Secre-
tary Kirilenko, both of whom had previously outranked
him. This was Brezhnev's first public appearance in
more than a month, and he walked unaided to his position
in the honor guard.
Comment: This lineup provides further evidence that
Suslov's death has profited Chernenko politically, while
damaging the prospects of Kirilenko, his chief rival as
a candidate to succeed Brezhnev. On Tuesday, the offi-
cial announcement of Suslov's funeral commission listed
Kirilenko's name lower than its normal place in order,
behind Chernenko and the other two full members of the
Politburo named to the commission. Suslov's funeral
today will provide another opportunity to assess
Chernenko's apparent number-two position.
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CHINA: Deng's Whereabouts Still Unknown
Top Secret
Deng Xiaoping failed to make a public appearance
during the lunar New Year holiday. His last reported
appearance was on 12 January, although
claims to have seen an undated photo of Deng
in Army uniform in the Army newspaper on Monday. A
Foreign Ministry spokesman replied to inquiries yester-
day by saying Deng is well and that he spent the holiday
out of Beijing. Earlier, however, the director of the
government news agency's foreign affairs bureau--after
checking with his superiors--told a journalist that Deng
had the flu.
Comment: Beijing's mixed signals regarding Deng's
absence could be due to bureaucratic confusion. Although
illness may account for Deng's absence, policy differences
cannot entirely be ruled out. The publication of his
photo in the Army newspaper suggests, however, that he
does not have any current serious problems with the Army.
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Leftist fringe groups who have been spreading anti-
US propaganda staged an orderly demonstration yesterday
outside the US Embassy.
Comment: The demonstration apparently was approved
by the regime's radical secretary for information, but
it is not clear if Head of State Rawlings was aware of
this. The leftists want to poison relations between the
new regime and the West, and they probably hope that by
acting when the leading moderate in the government is
out of the country they can increase their influence in
the new regime. They also may be responsible for allegedly
asking Libya to help reorganize the Information Ministry.
LIBERIA: Calming Student Protests
Head of State Doe yesterday announced executive
clemency for leftist student leaders sentenced to death
for violating the regime's ban on politics. His decision
was well received by residents of Monrovia, who feared
extensive rioting if the executions were carried out.
Comment: //Doe probably has avoided a showdown
between the regime and its student critics. At the same
time, however, he may risk further alienating other mem-
bers of the military council who had sought the death
penalty. Some of these hardliners may be unhappy with
Doe's plans to return eventually to civilian rule.//
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PAKISTAN-INDIA: Talks on Nonagression Pact
Pakistani Foreign Minister Shahi arrives in New
Delhi today for three days of preliminary talks on a
nonaggression pact proposed last September by Islamabad.
India has stated that Pakistan will have to "revise"
its US arms acquisitions, stop its nuclear program, and
agree to settle the Kashmir dispute without reference to
any third party.
Comment: //The talks almost certainly will not re-
sult in any real progress. They are likely to drag on
inconclusively, however, because neither side will want
to take responsibility for a breakdown in negotiations.//
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