NATIONAL INTELLIGENCE DAILY (CABLE) 5 MARCH 1982

• Document Type: CREST
• Collection: General CIA Records
• Document Number (FOIA) /ESDN (CREST): CIA-RDP84T00301R000200010019-5
• Release Decision: RIPPUB
• Original Classification: T
• Document Page Count: 12
• Document Creation Date: December 22, 2016
• Document Release Date: February 7, 2011
• Sequence Number: 19
• Publication Date: March 5, 1982
• Content Type: REPORT

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Director of Top Secret
Central
Intelligence
National Intelligence Daily
(Cable)
Top Secret
CO NIDC 82-05i(
March
402
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Top Secret
Central America: Military Operations in EZ Salvador .
USSR: Chernenko's Status . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 3
Belgium: Economic Pressure . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 4
Iran - Saudi Arabia: Iranian Pilots Defect . . . . . . . . 5
International: Possible Deadlock on Disarmament . . . . . . 5
Venezuela: Sagging Oil Revenues . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 6
Spain: Trial of Coup Plotters . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 6
Yugoslavia-Italy: Support for Italian Communists . . . . . 7
North Korea: Reaction to Joint Exercise . . . . . . . . . . 8
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Top Secret
CENTRAL AMERICA: Military Operations in El Salvador
pected the Last of this month will not Likely be affected.
in scheduled guerrilla actions, but the major insurgent push ex-
Recent armed forces operations may have contributed to delays
killed.
Senior military officials have announced that the
operation in the Guazapa volcano area has been terminated.
Some units are to remain in the area, however, to deter
the buildup of uerrilla forces attack for gainst the
capital. as of Monday
40 soldiers had been killed or wounded and 76 guerrillas
Comment: The operation at Guazapa--while not a
clear-cut victory of the armed forces--may have tempo-
rarily disrupted the schedule for insur ent actions in
the capital and against other cities.
Nicaraguan Developments
The president of Nicaragua's businessmen's organi-
zation--who recently was released from jail because of
pressure exerted by Mexican President Lopez Portillo--
dismisses the possible effectiveness of outside interfer-
ence on the Sandinistas. Instead, he believes that US
support for his group and other elements of the democratic
onnosition would be a more effective check.
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Party secretary Chernenko appears to have assumed at Least
some of the responsibilities held by deceased party ideologue
Sus by.
position Suslov occupied on such occasions.
week, Chernenko stood next to President Brezhnev--the
This week, Chernenko filled Suslov's former role
as the key figure handling interparty relations in the
negotiations between Polish Premier Jaruzelski and
Soviet Politburo members. During an award ceremony last
rival, has maintained an unusually low profile. He did
not participate in the negotiations Jaruzelski or
attend the award ceremony.
tions in Moscow, Leningrad, Georgia, and the Ukraine.
Meanwhile, Andrey Kirilenko, Chernenko's chief
Chernenko's stature was further enhanced in a
major article he has written for a party journal stress-
ing that greater attention must be paid to Soviet public
opinion in the wake of events in Poland. He urged party
leaders to forestall discontent by broadening discussion
in the party by showing more receptivity to new methods
in resolving problems. He also used thearticle to build
his regional support by praising the major party organiza-
Comment: These recent events provide strong evi-
dence that Chernenko has taken over Suslov's position
as the second most important party leader as well as
Suslov's foreign policy responsibilities. The recent
article shows that, unlike the conservative Suslov,
Chernenko favors some reforms in domestic policy. Al-
though his position is strengthened, his new duties do
not assure him the type of power base he needs to succeed
Brezhnev.
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//Mounting economic problems are providing the most serious
challenge to Prime Minister Marten's center-right government since
it was formed two months ago.//
//The situation worsened this week when the European
Commission rejected a Belgian plan to restructure its
hard-pressed steel industry thereby jeopardizing the con-
tinuation of badly needed EC funds. The government is
convinced that the steel industry cannot show a orofit
by 1985 as the Commission had demanded.//
//The Commission's decision has prompted thousands
of workers throughout economically depressed Wallonia
to stage more strikes and demonstrations. During the
past few days, violence has grown and antagonism between
leaders in Wallonia and more prosperous Flanders has
intensified.//
//The steel strikes are only part of growing worker
resistance to deep cuts in public spending. The govern-
ment will begin talks next week with union leaders and
employers in an effort to win their support for its
overall economic program.//
Comment: //There is considerable pressure on Walloon
Christian Social and Liberal members of the cabinet, and
failure of the talks could lead to collapse of the govern-
ment. Martens, however, probably can buy a bit more time
by promising to reconsider some of the deeper cuts and
by returning to the European Commission for more talks.//
//Nonetheless, the Prime Minister cannot increase
spending and still hope to make economic progress. If
compromise cannot be reached on the steel issue, the
government would be more likely to defy the Commission
than risk being toppled by worker unrest.//
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permission to land at Dhahran Airfield.//
Navy ships. The Iranians requested and were cxranted
//Two Iranian pilots defected to Saudi Arabia in an
F-4E Phantom yesterday. While over the Persian Gulf,
the fighter was identified by US Air Force AWACS and
on Disarmament in June will be affected.//
group. If a deadlock develops at Geneva, the ability
of the US to influence the course of arms control dis-
cussions at the NATO Summit and the UN Special Session
Comment: //Action by the Committee requires unani-
mous consent, but, if the US uses the rule to prevent
formation of a group, the nonaligned nations appear ready
to obstruct work on other issues. The Soviet Bloc prob-
ably will support the nonaligned tactic to make the US
appear the only nation preventing progress in arms con-
trol. US allies, because of their own domestic concerns,
will refuse to help prevent establishment of a working
USSR from scoring a propaganda victory.//
are urging the US to show flexibility to prevent the
//Neutral and nonaligned states at the meeting of
the Committee on Disarmament in Geneva reportedly are
threatening to block any action by the Committee unless
the US agrees to the establishment of a working group
on a comprehensive nuclear test ban. Allied governments
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VENEZUELA: Sagging Oil Revenues
Venezuela, which faces stiff competition from Mexico,
this week reduced the price of its heavy crude oils by
$2.50 per barrel in another effort to increase sales.
Nevertheless, since early January, petroleum exports of
all kinds have averaged only 1.5 million barrels per day,
300,000 barrels per day below the goal for 1982. The
composite price for a barrel of Venezuelan petroleum and
products is now $28.80, or $1.60 less than that used to
project oil revenues for 1982.
Comment: At current rates, Venezuelan oil export
income this year would fall about $4.1 billion short of
original projections, and further declines are possible.
The possibility of such a large deficit will force the
government to revise spending plans, particularly for
several costly projects under way. The shortfall also
may affect plans for development of the heavy oil deposits
in the Orinoco Basin and for financial assistance to
Central American countries.
SPAIN: Trial of the Coup Plotters
Leaders of the principal political parties have
generally cooperated to keep the trial of the plotters
from becoming a partisan issue. Written statements
submitted by the two most prominent defendants--Generals
Armada and Milans del Bosch--disagree on which of them
led the coup attempt last year.
Comment: //The crucial moments in the trial will
arrive when the court attempts to resolve the contradic-
tions between the defendants' statements. The testimony
so far appears to have averted the greatest danger--
branding the King with a charge of first encouraging
and then betraying the coup. That accusation would not
be credible without support from Armada--a longtime close
associate of the King's
25X
25X
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law regime in Poland.
YUGOSLAVIA-ITALY: Support for Italian Communists
Yugoslav Party Presidium member Dolanc met with
Italian Communist Party chief Berlinguer in Rome this
week. The Yugoslavs previously have maintained a low
profile concerning the dispute between the Soviet Com-
munist Party and the Italian Party which arose because
of the Italians' condemnation of the USSR and the martial
movement.
Comment: The visit reflects a growing sentiment
in Belgrade to show more support for the Italian Party.
This attitude probably stems from the Yugoslavs' desire
to demonstrate to Moscow that its efforts to isolate the
Italian Communists or any other independent Communist
party cannot succeed. Moscow is irritated by Belgrade's
actions but probably will confine any disapproval to
private channels to avoid further deterioration in
bilateral relations and in the international Communist
Top Secret
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The military exercise conducted annually by US and
South Korean forces has caused North Korea to respond
with increased anti-US propaganda and repeated denuncia-
tions of flights by US SR-71 reconnaissance aircraft.
No significant changes have been detected in the alert
status of North Korean forces.
Comment: P'yongyang often conducts large-scale
maneuvers in late winter but may be delaying or scaling
back training this year in conjunction with the extensive
preparations for the celebration of Kim I1-song's birth-
day on 15 April.
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Top aecret
Top Secret
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