NATIONAL INTELLIGENCE DAILY THURSDAY 11 MARCH 1982

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Document Number (FOIA) /ESDN (CREST): 
CIA-RDP84T00301R000200010038-4
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RIPPUB
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T
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19
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December 22, 2016
Document Release Date: 
August 11, 2010
Sequence Number: 
38
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Publication Date: 
March 11, 1982
Content Type: 
REPORT
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PDF icon CIA-RDP84T00301R000200010038-4.pdf790.67 KB
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Sanitized Copy Approved for Release 2011/02/18: CIA-RDP84TOO301 R000200010038-4 Intelligence National Intelligence Daily Thursday 11 March 1982 Top Secret Copy 252 Sanitized Copy Approved for Release 2011/02/18: CIA-RDP84T00301 R000200010038-4 Sanitized Copy Approved for Release 2011/02/18: CIA-RDP84T00301 R000200010038-4 Sanitized Copy Approved for Release 2011/02/18: CIA-RDP84T00301 R000200010038-4 Sanitized Copy Approved for Release 2011/02/18: CIA-RDP84T00301 R000200010038-4 Contents / Central America: Military Offensive in EZ Salvador . . . 1 3 Israel-Egypt: Boundary Disputes . . . . . . . . . . . . 4 ,'"USSR: Debate Over Investment Strategy . . . . . . . . . 6 to Venezuela: Appeal to the US . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 7 Cl USSR-Iran: Sign of Soviet Displeasure . . . . . . . . . 9 ~Q Greece: Socialist Budget . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 10 EC: Roadblock to Sanctions Removed . . . . . . . . . . . 10 /~e UK: Amphibious Ships Retained . . . . . . . . . . . . . 12 /5-China: Accelerated Population Growth . . . . . . . . . . 12 Sanitized Copy Approved for Release 2011/02/18: CIA-RDP84T00301 R000200010038-4 Sanitized Copy Approved for Release 2011/02/18: CIA-RDP84T00301 R000200010038-4 Sanitized Copy Approved for Release 2011/02/18: CIA-RDP84T00301 R000200010038-4 Sanitized Copy Approved for Release 2011/02/18: CIA-RDP84T00301 R000200010038-4 Top Secret CENTRAL AMERICA: Military Offensive in El Salvador The armed forces in EZ Salvador are taking the military ini- tiative in order to upset insurgent plans to disrupt the elections. Meanwhile, the Guatemalan Government appears headed for a showdown with opposition parties protesting the election of General Guevara. In Mexico, the Secretary of Defense has expressed concern that the Guatemalan insurgency may eventually spread to his country. The Salvadoran Army has begun a large-scale offen- sive against a major insurgent base area in the central part of the country. Almost 2,000 troops are involved in the operation, which was launched with unusual secu- rity precautions to avoid tipping off the guerrillas. The base area is a key point in the distribution of ~/ insurgent supplies throughout El Salvador. It also is a potential staging area for an attack on one of the remaining bridges across the Lempa River. Comment: The Army's most recent offensive appar- ently upset insurgent plans to attack San Salvador, and this operation may disrupt guerrilla raids on cities in the country's central and eastern regions. 3 Postelection Crisis in Guatemala All three opposition leaders are calling for demon- strations against electoral fraud, including a daily 5 one-hour work stoppage. These protests are to culminate in a large demonstration on Monday, the day election results are to be validated by the congress. F Sanitized Copy Approved for Release 2011/02/18: CIA-RDP84T00301 R000200010038-4 25X1 25X1 25X1 ^ 25X1 25X~ 25X1 25X1 25X1 Sanitized Copy Approved for Release 2011/02/18: CIA-RDP84T00301 R000200010038-4 government probably will declare a state of siege. Top Secret Comment: A general strike supported by business and labor groups would embarrass the government but would not jeopardize Guevara's accession to the presidency. The Army shows every intention of using whatever force is needed to silence dissent over the election results. In the event of a strike or additional clashes between the security forces and the regime's opponents, the to maintain control there. Mexican Secretary of Defense General Galvan recently told a US official that he is convinced that the insur- gency in Guatemala will eventually have an impact on Mexico's internal security. Although Galvan acknowledged C6 that some members of the government prefer to ignore the problems posed by guerrilla activity along the border with Guatemala, he said that he intends to do his best with Guatemala. Comment: Galvan's comments reflect growing anxiety among senior Mexican military officials over the spread of insurgency in Central America and highlight differences 3 in the government over Central American policy. Never- theless, Mexican policymakers probably will continue to resist efforts for more effective military cooperation ua ema an gu p Galvan claimed to have reached an agreement late last month with his Guatemalan counterpart that will ensure greater bilateral cooperation. He also expressed a willingness to exchange information with the US on t, t 1 ervilla o era1-ions Top Secret Sanitized Copy Approved for Release 2011/02/18: CIA-RDP84T00301 R000200010038-4 Sanitized Copy Approved for Release 2011/02/18: CIA-RDP84T00301 R000200010038-4 Sanitized Copy Approved for Release 2011/02/18: CIA-RDP84T00301 R000200010038-4 Sanitized Copy Approved for Release 2011/02/18: CIA-RDP84T00301 R000200010038-4 Mediterranean Sea Egypt GAZA STRIP ,) {Israeli- f occupied Israel 0 Sinai-Israel boundary Israeli occupied f El Arish-Ras Mohammed Line (effective until 26 April 1982) Gulf of Suez Egypt Boundary rOpresenrariwn is net nmcassanly authodtatiue Gulf of Aqaba Res Mohammed Sanitized Copy Approved for Release 2011/02/18: CIA-RDP84T00301 R000200010038-4 Sanitized Copy Approved for Release 2011/02/18: CIA-RDP84T00301 R000200010038-4 2 withdraws on 26 April. ISRAEL-EGYPT: Boundary Disputes Israeli officials continue to insist that all disputes over Z demarcation of the Sinai-Israel boundary be settled before Israel 1973 show the beach in Sinai, not Israel. Sixteen of 100 border segments remain in dispute, but only one, at Tabah Beach, where the Israelis have built two tourist facilities, is being strongly contested / by Israel. The location of the border there was obscured during the late 1960s when the Israelis destroyed the border markers. Official Israeli plans for Tabah in Israeli officials say they are flexible about most of the disputed points but want the resorts at Tabah included within Israel. Until this dispute is settled, construction of crossing facilities at Tabah--one of the four entry checkpoints on the border--cannot begin. Tabah Beach. Comment: Egypt and Israel probably will complete the boundary demarcation before 26 April, although they may not be able to finish their customs facilities at the four designated crossing points by the date of with- drawal. The tourist facilities at Tabah are within the Sinai, and Egypt will continue to demand ownership of to discuss a compromise. Prime Minister Begin probably will not make the issue a pretext for delaying withdrawal. He will urge the Egyptians to compromise, however, and he also may seek US intervention. Israeli Foreign Ministry officials reportedly believe that Egyptian Foreign Minister Ali, during his recent tour of the Sinai border with Defense Minister Sharon, for the first time showed an inclination Sanitized Copy Approved for Release 2011/02/18: CIA-RDP84T00301 R000200010038-4 Sanitized Copy Approved for Release 2011/02/18: CIA-RDP84T00301 R000200010038-4 Sanitized Copy Approved for Release 2011/02/18: CIA-RDP84T00301 R000200010038-4 Sanitized Copy Approved for Release 2011/02/18: CIA-RDP84T00301 R000200010038-4 C benefit in the longer run. suggests support for these views within the top leader- ship, particularly from party Secretary Kirilenko, who has been the strongest supporter in the Politburo of machine-building. The dispute is not over the rate of growth of investment but over whether to allocate more to machinery, with less going to such sectors as land reclamation, chemicals, metallurgy, timber, and coal. These and other sectors, Kirilenko would argue, would USSR: Debate Over Investment Strategy the five-year plan, which ends in 1985. A recent Pravda article indicates that the debate is con- tinuing over the investment priorities adopted Zast November in standards. Prominent Soviet economist Abel Aganbegyan criti- cizes what he views as the insufficient expansion of capacity for production of more and better quality machinery, which, he maintains, is crucial to regain the higher rates of growth of the past. Growth below this level would prevent the USSR from raising living Aganbegyan--noting manpower shortages, a planned smaller share of output devoted to investment, and the rising cost of extracting natural resources--stresses the familiar theme that growth now heavily depends on raising output per worker. This, he says, can be attained only through much more rapid modernization and mechanization of industry. The Soviets, however, have been allocating only a. small share of total investment to the machinery sector. Comment: The publication of the article in Pravda antagonizing powerful interest groups. at the expense of growth in other sectors, thereby The shifts might well create new bottlenecks or intensify old ones. Moreover, they would have to come Sanitized Copy Approved for Release 2011/02/18: CIA-RDP84T00301 R000200010038-4 Sanitized Copy Approved for Release 2011/02/18: CIA-RDP84T00301 R000200010038-4 VENEZUELA: Appeal to the US Top Secret Venezuelan leaders are pleading for US help in dealing with economic and political problems caused by sagging oil prices, but so far they do not anbear to be considering specific long-term Energy Minister Calderon Berti estimates that revenue for 1982 will be $3.5 billion less than last year, and private estimates indicate a more severe drop. The Minister has told US officials privately that the losses cannot be offset by domestic spending cuts alone and 2 urged the US to help. Calderon Berti asked for a two-year agreement to / supply oil for the US strategic reserve, which would enable Venezuela to meet minimum export needs. He noted fj Venezuela's past services to the US, including supplying 4 petroleum during the OPEC boycott, and its current close The ruling Social. Christian Party is moving toward elections in 1983 burdened by an unpopular President, a stagnating economy, and political infighting over who should be the party's candidate. The opposition Demo- cratic Action Party, which dominates congress, has scheduled an inquiry into the government's oil policy and hopes to broaden this into an attack on domestic and foreign policies. Venezuela traditionally has offset unexpected drops in income by foreign borrowing, but, because of some past excesses, Herrera is committed not to use this method. Rather than cut back on social services, he may force the nationalized oil industry to absorb the drop in revenues. It could borrow abroad or cut investment, particularly in the multibillion-dollar Orinoco heavy Comment: Although President Herrera is making some effort to reduce spending, his alternatives are limited. oil development project. Sanitized Copy Approved for Release 2011/02/18: CIA-RDP84T00301 R000200010038-4 Sanitized Copy Approved for Release 2011/02/18: CIA-RDP84T00301 R000200010038-4 Top Secret USSR-IRAN: Sign of Soviet Displeasure Moscow's latest public displeasure over relations with Iran appears designed to caution Tehran that it will have to take new actions if the situation is to improve. An article in Pravda this week acknowledges improved economic cooperation but lists grievances against Iran. Among other things, it cites the reduction of Soviet diplomatic personnel in Tehran, the unilateral termination of the Society of Soviet-Iranian Cultural Relations, and the anti-Soviet rhetoric of Iranian media. The commen- tary also criticizes "conservative factions" in the leader- , / ship for obstructing closer bilateral relations. l~ Comment: The article appears to be a warning that Moscow's tolerance for anti-Soviet actions is limited and that Tehran should meet the USSR halfway if it wants continued economic and military support. The Soviets may hope that Iran's current economic problem will provide the necessary impetus for improving political relations. The singling out of "conservative elements" may be aimed at weakening their positions in relation to the factions that apparently favor closer cooperation with the USSR. Sanitized Copy Approved for Release 2011/02/18: CIA-RDP84T00301 R000200010038-4 Sanitized Copy Approved for Release 2011/02/18: CIA-RDP84T00301 R000200010038-4 deficit by 5 percent. GREECE: Socialist Budget The government's first proposed budget projects a deficit of $4 billion, almost 10 percent of GNP. Accord- ing to press reports, expenditures are to rise by 35 percent--roughly 10 percent in real terms--including increases of 27 percent for defense spending, 15 percent for salary and pension costs, and 42 percent for social welfare. Higher taxes are expected to produce a 58- percent increase in revenues, which would reduce the Comment: Revenue projections probably are too optimistic, particularly if output remains depressed. 1 In addition, salary and pension expenditures, which comprise over one-third of the budget, almost certainly will rise more than projected because of large raises already granted to lower income workers and government promises to index wages. Prime Minister Papandreou sees this budget as creating favorable conditions for the five-year development plan beginning in 1983, but, with falling private investment, income redistribution, and an inflationary budget, economic problems are likely to intensify by the end of the year. EC: Roadblock to Sanctions Removed Denmark's agreement to drop its procedural reserva- tion against EC restrictions on imports from the USSR removes the final roadblock to carry out the EC sanc- tions that were put in final form late last week. The measures reportedly will be imposed early next week by all EC members except Greece, which continues to oppose Washington to take action. Comment Other EC members probably convinced Copenhagen to drop its objection because of the minimal effect sanctions would have on Denmark's trade and because of the increasing pressures on the EC from Sanitized Copy Approved for Release 2011/02/18: CIA-RDP84T00301 R000200010038-4 Sanitized Copy Approved for Release 2011/02/18: CIA-RDP84T00301 R000200010038-4 Sanitized Copy Approved for Release 2011/02/18: CIA-RDP84T00301 R000200010038-4 Sanitized Copy Approved for Release 2011/02/18: CIA-RDP84T00301 R000200010038-4 UK: Amphibious Ships Retained amphibious capability at the current level. NATO that by keeping the ships it will maintain its The government has decided to keep two large land- ing ships that were to be scrapped, but it evidently will go through with the sale of a carrier to Australia. The carrier is to be delivered in late 1983, after a sister ship becomes operational. The UK has claimed to Comment: All major amphibious ships were to be taken out of service by 1985, and the UK would have had difficulty fulfilling its NATO mission of rapidly rein- forcing the northern flank or moving intervention forces outside the NATO area. Retaining the two ships will help but will not stop the decline of UK amphibious capabilities. Both Royal Navy officials and Conservative backbenchers apparently are resisting the decision to sell the carrier, and the government may have acted now in order to counter parliamentary opposition to the sale. CHINA: Accelerated Population Growth Beijing is forecasting a birth rate of about 2 per- cent per year for each of the next two years, up from an average of about 1.8 percent for each of the last two years. With a population of about 1 billion at the be- ginning of this year, this would result in an addition of some 28 million people by the end of 1983. Beijing now admits that the "one-child-per-couple" policy needs to be changed to make family planning more acceptable and realistic. Some provinces recognize that making the household rather than the commune the key agricul- tural production unit and assigning land on a per capita basis encourage large families. it will further impede economic development. below 1.2 billion through the end of the century, and Comment: The more rapid increase in population results in part from a higher proportion of couples of childbearing age in the population, a new law lowering the legal age for marriage, and the effects of the agri- cultural policy. The new trend threatens to prevent China from achieving its goal of keeping the population Sanitized Copy Approved for Release 2011/02/18: CIA-RDP84T00301 R000200010038-4 Sanitized Copy Approved for Release 2011/02/18: CIA-RDP84T00301 R000200010038-4 Iq Next 2 Page(s) In Document Denied Sanitized Copy Approved for Release 2011/02/18: CIA-RDP84T00301 R000200010038-4 Sanitized Copy Approved for Release 2011/02/18: CIA-RDP84T00301 R000200010038-4 Top Secret Sanitized Copy Approved for Release 2011/02/18: CIA-RDP84T00301 R000200010038-4