NATIONAL INTELLIGENCE DAILY (CABLE) 30 MARCH 1982

• Document Type: CREST
• Collection: General CIA Records
• Document Number (FOIA) /ESDN (CREST): CIA-RDP84T00301R000200010105-9
• Release Decision: RIPPUB
• Original Classification: T
• Document Page Count: 10
• Document Creation Date: December 20, 2016
• Document Release Date: November 1, 2007
• Sequence Number: 105
• Publication Date: March 30, 1982
• Content Type: REPORT

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/4,"I^Fx Director of Top Secret
7
Central
Intelligence
National Intelligence Daily
(Cable)
Top Secret
CO AUDC
30 March 1982
Copy 't U
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Top Secret
Contents
Israel: Begin's Prospects . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 2
Special Analysis
South Africa - Angola: Cross-Border Operations . . . . . . 4
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ISRAEL: Begin's Prospects
settlers in the Sinai.
The approval yesterday by the Knesset of an interim
budget improves Prime Minister Begin's chances of remain-
ing in office for the time being. The Knesset, however,
also may vote today or tomorrow on a controversial reli-
gious bill and on financial compensation for Jewish
Comment: The proposed religious legislation is
only in its initial stages, and its ultraorthodox sup-
porters may not seek a vote if passage seems unlikely.
Begin faces a tougher challenge on the sensitive compen-
sation issue, which he would like to resolve to help
reduce the possibility of violent resistance by the
settlers to final withdrawal from the Sinai. The
Knesset's spring recess begins on Thursday and lasts
until early May, and Begin almost certainly will use
the recess to renew overtures to three small parliamen-
tary groups whose participation in the coalition would
give him control of 66 seats in the 120-member legislature.
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SOUTH AFRICA - ANGOLA: Cross-Border Operations
South Africa has waged its war against the South-West Africa
People's Organization during the past year largely on Angolan terri-
tory. The South African military, operating from a buffer zone
established after a major incursion Zast summer into southern Angola,
has attacked SWAPO bases well inside Angola. South Africa's con-
tinuous presence in the area has prevented SWAPO from resuming its
high ZeveZ of activity of Zate 1980. Pretoria recently has acted
to prevent the guerrillas from skirting the buffer zone to infiltrate
Namibia and probably is now conducting another major operation deep
in southern Angola.
The incursions in 1981 were aimed at destroying the
guerrillas' infrastructure near the Namibian border and
inhibiting future infiltration. The insurgents' depend-
ence on Angolan transportation and storage facilities
led the South Africans to abandon their policy of avoid-
ing clashes with Angolan forces.
Moving Into Angola
Last summer Pretoria carried out its largest incur-
sion since 1975. The operation was designed to punish
Angola for its protection of SWAPO.
Virtually all of the 1,000 casualties were Angolans,
and the enormous quantities of captured military equipment
were primarily from Angolan bases. The destruction of
radar facilities at Cahama and Chibemba was a warning to
Angola and its Communist backers against any southward
extension of the air defense net along the Mocamedes-
Lubango-Matala line.
//South Africa has subsequently preserved a buffer
zone by conducting reconnaissance missions, "hot pursuit"
raids, and several followup operations. Small units
regularly patrol to intercept SWAPO or Angolan units
attempting to return.//
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nearer the coast.//
//Pretoria also has countered SWAPO's efforts to flank
the buffer zone. Earlier this month, South Africa de-
stroyed a new base near Cambeno in the mountainous area
//In an apparent warning to the guerrillas and to the
Zambian Government, South Africa moved additional aircraft
to Mpacha Airfield in the Caprivi Strip, once the primary
staging base for operations against SWAPO bases in Zambia.
suggests another major operation is under way.//
The stationing of Mirage fighters at Ondangua Airfield
ment.//
Relying on the Military Option
//Increasing the costs to Angola serves Pretoria's
negotiating objectives. The South Africans believe that
progress on related issues, particularly the Cuban presence
in Angola, is a necessary component of any Namibian settle-
stages of negotiations on Namibia.
Despite its military successes during the last year,
Pretoria's short-term political objectives have not been
achieved. The number of terrorist incidents is down, but
SWAPO's political strength in Namibia appears undiminished.
The increased military pressure also has not made SWAPO
and the Frontline States more compliant in the early
Pretoria, however, probably will not abandon its
emphasis on military operations for the sake of possible
political progress on Namibia. The incursion it launched
last November coincided with the arrival of Western
Contact Group representatives in Luanda to initiate the
current round of negotiations. The operation evidently
under way will further complicate efforts to break the
impasse in the negotiations over the electoral provisions
for a constitutional assembly.
against white rule.
The South Africans have pointed to the killing and
capture of Soviet advisers during the incursion late last
summer, the downing in November of a MIG probably piloted
by a Cuban, and the clash with Cubans in early January
as evidence of Communist backing of the "total onslaught"
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Pretoria's announcement last week that all white
males up to the age of 60 will be liable for military
training and service in home guard units suggests that
the South Africans are preparing for an extended conflict
in Namibia and for defending against other regional
security threats. In such an atmosphere, Pretoria may
be increasingly unwilling to take many risks in pursuing
a political settlement in Namibia.
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Top Secret
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