NATIONAL INTELLIGENCE DAILY (CABLE) 10 JULY 1982

• Document Type: CREST
• Collection: General CIA Records
• Document Number (FOIA) /ESDN (CREST): CIA-RDP84T00301R000400010098-6
• Release Decision: RIPPUB
• Original Classification: T
• Document Page Count: 14
• Document Creation Date: December 20, 2016
• Document Release Date: August 31, 2007
• Sequence Number: 98
• Publication Date: July 10, 1982
• Content Type: REPORT

Central
Intelligence
National Intelligence Daily
(Cable)
I -/ 0
10 July 1982
COPY 402
Approved For Release 2007/09/13 : CIA-RDP84TOO301 R000400010098-6
 Israel-Lebanon: Hostilities Increase . . . . . . . . . . . 1
Iran-Iraq: Poised for an Invasion . . . . . . . . . . . . 4
Turkey: Constitutional Proposals . . . . . . . . . . . . . 5
Israel - Arab States: Gaza Major Dismissed . . . . . . . . 6
EC - Middle East: Continuing a Cautious Policy . . . . . . 6
Japan: Prospects for Defense Budget . . . . . . . . . . . 7
International: Copper Exporters Meet . . . . . . . . . . . 7
Special Analysis
Honduras-US: President Suazo's Visit . . . . . . . . . . . 8
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 Fighting between Israeli and Palestinian forces in the south-
ern suburbs of Beirut intensified yesterday as Israeli ground and
naval batteries reportedly conducted the heaviest bombardment of
West Beirut in several days.
kilometer east of the crossing.//
Israel's Deputy Chief of Staff told the media yes-
terday that Israeli forces were preparing for a long stay
in Lebanon--through September and possibly through winter.
He also reported the latest figures on Israeli casualties
in the war as 281 killed, 1,570 wounded, and 11 missing
//According to Beirut radio, Syrian forces in the
Bekaa Valley are reinforcing their positions with large
quantities of ammunition and weapons.
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 to accept Israeli terms for a negotiated withdrawal.
Israel appears to be strengthening its position in
the Bekaa Valley, perhaps in anticipation of an extended
stay. Given the apparent Syrian reinforcements, Tel Aviv
Syrian Press Statement
Damascus radio yesterday quoted an unnamed official
spokesman as saying that Palestinian "fighters" in
Lebanon could not be transferred to Syria under "present
Comment: This is the first public Syrian statement
on the proposed evacuation of the PLO from Lebanon to
Syria. By stressing that "fighters" could not be trans-
ferred, the statement appears to leave open the question
of whether or not the PLO leadership could move to
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 Minister for Economics Meridor, the Israeli official
coordinating relief efforts in Lebanon, reportedly has
told the head of the UN Relief and Rehabilitation Survey
Team that the main category of homeless are the Palestin-
ians. He said an unspecified number of housing develop-
ments of about 200 units each would allow the integration
of the Palestinians into the communities in which they
Meridor also said there are 20,000 families in need
of housing. He asked the UN and foreign governments to
Comment: The Israeli Government has made it clear
that it does not want Palestinian refugee camps reestab-
lished because it believes camps would perpetuate the
refugee problem. The Israelis have already singled out
Catholic Relief Services as the voluntary agency that
should be involved in housing reconstruction.
In addition to the political and social problems
involved in dispersing the Palestinians among Lebanese
communities, financing will be a major difficulty
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 Comment: Iran could time its attack to coincide
with the anniversary of the martyrdom of Ali, the most
important personality in Shia Islam after Mohammad. The
anniversary begins today and ends on Tuesday.
About 200,000 troops will be involved in the impend-
ing battle, making it the biggest of the war. Iranian
forces will attack along the entire border northeast of
Al Basrah, but two main thrusts are likely. An Iranian
armored division probably will try to penetrate the weak
point in Iraqi lines, while other Iranian units drive
along the Shatt al Arab to cut off Iraqi units farther
The Iraqis will be fighting for the first time on
their own territory and may fight harder than they did
in Iran. Iraq's physical defenses are stronger and the
concentration of its regular units greater than at any
time in the war. Nonetheless, an Iranian breakthrough
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 the
ra ue to be published over the weekend--will include
many of the rights and judicial powers listed in the
liberal constitution of 1961. New features will be a
unicameral parliament, a "Republican Council" of 40 or
The assembly will debate the proposals during August
and September. The draft will then have to be endorsed
by the ruling National Security Council, which is com-
posed of Head of State General Evren and the four service
In a recent speech Evren reaffirmed that a constitu-
tion would be submitted to popular referendum in November.
The press has speculated that the first president may be
elected by direct vote simultaneously with the referendum.
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Comment: The military has guided the formulation
of the draft and may make additional minor changes.
Nevertheless, the presentation of the draft and the pro-
spective debate mark a crucial step in the generals'
schedule of gradual return to democracy. The move may
help mitigate the efforts of five West European govern-
ments to follow through on formal charges against Turkey
before the European Human Rights Commission.
The next steps after the referendum, all of which
will be closely monitored by the National Security Coun-
cil, include the drafting of election and political
party laws next spring, the formation of new political
parties, and parliamentary elections, perhaps as early
General Evren, who is widely respected both within
the military and among the public, is the logical choice
to become the next president. He has publicly disclaimed
 The Israelis yesterday ousted Gaza Mayor Shawwa,
ostensibly for refusing to cooperate with the Israeli
Comment: Shawwa, a well-respected, pragmatic poli-
tician who was frequently at odds with the PLO, was one
of the few leaders in the West Bank and Gaza who met
regularly with US officials. Although he rejected the
Camp David accords and refused to join the autonomy talks,
he had privately expressed interest in the process. The
Israeli decision to dismiss Shawwa apparently indicates
that Tel Aviv now has abandoned any pretense of attempt-
ing to lure established moderate Arabs into the autonomy
EC - MIDDLE EAST: Continuing a Cautious Policy
//The EC's Middle East Working Group agreed this week
that the Ten could undertake no useful actions at this
time concerning Lebanon. It recommended that the EC con-
sult closely with the US on Middle East issues and pay
special attention to the preferences of Egypt and to the
Venice Declaration of 1980, which called for Palestinian
Comment: //The group's discussions, combined with
those at the EC summit last month, indicate the EC will
pursue a cautious policy on the Middle East despite its
displeasure over the Israeli invasion. The West Europeans
probably have concluded that, because they have little
influence over Tel Aviv, their best course is to support
US mediation efforts. The West Germans, in particular,
oppose any new EC initiative at this stage. They argue
that Western Europe should support more practical diplo-
matic efforts, possibly using the Camp David accords as
 The increase in Japanese defense spending next year
probably will not be much higher than the 7.3-percent
preliminary ceiling the cabinet approved yesterday.
This would be less than the increase of 7.75 percent
last year but substantially more than the increase in
most other sectors of the budget. The growth in budget
outlays in fiscal 1983, which begins next April, will
Comment: The defense budget will not be finally
set until late this year, and Prime Minister Suzuki
may be willing to overrule the Finance Ministry and
adjust the ceiling somewhat higher, as he did at the
end of the last budget cycle. Nonetheless, in view
of Suzuki's commitment to fiscal austerity, any increase
is likely to be slight. The size of the increment will
depend on Tokyo's reading of the attitude in Washington,
which Japan will test at the annual security consulta-
tions in August and during the visit to the US b the
head of the Defense Agency in September .
The Intergovernmental Council of Copper Exporting
Countries meets in Lima today to consider establishing a
producer price above the current world market price of
55-65 cents per pound. In real terms this price is the
lowest in 30 years, and most producers are losing money.
Council members include the most important Third World
producers--Chile, Zambia, Zaire and Peru--but not the
US, the USSR or Canada, which produce almost half of
Comment: The Council may be able to raise prices
slightly because copper fabricators have reduced their
inventories and are buying copper as needed to fill
orders. Any attempt to raise prices substantially, how-
ever, is likely to be opposed by Chile, which favors a
free market, and by Zambia and Zaire, which would be
reluctant to withhold production and possibly reduce
export earnings. Higher prices, moreover, might lead
US and Canadian companies to reopen recently closed mines,
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 //The government of President Suazo, who visits Washington next
week, is providing Honduras with its most competent leadership in
years. Its strongly pro-US orientation and its firm response to
increasingly violent forces in Central America, however, have made
the country a target for Cuban- and Nicaraguan-backed subversion.
The chief elements of this threat--increased domestic terrorism,
Nicaragua's military buildup and aggressive posture, and the poten-
tial revolutionary spillover from EZ Salvador--wiZZ be high on
Suazo's agenda. Honduras also faces serious economic problems, and
Suazo wants to return home with a US economic and military aid
package.//
//Until recently, Cuba and Nicaragua had been will-
ing to forgo immediate efforts to promote subversion in
Honduras, while attempting to cajole or intimidate the
government into adopting a neutral stance toward Nicaragua
and the conflict in El Salvador. In response to the Suazo
administration's tough anti-Communist stance, however, the
Cubans and revolutionary forces in the region have become
more aggressive.//
//Efforts to unify Honduran leftist elements and pre-
pare them for armed struggle have increased. Terrorist
activities also are on the rise. Last week, for example,
a new action arm of the Salvadoran guerrilla front bombed
Tegucigalpa's major power plants and the Costa Rican of-
fices of Honduras's airline in retaliation for Honduran
military support of Salvadoran forces fighting guerrillas
along the common border.//
//Popular satisfaction with the return to civilian
rule will complicate efforts by Havana and Managua to
unify Honduran Communist groups. The rapid passage re-
cently of an antiterrorist law underscores growing public
 //Honduran leaders also are worried about Nicaragua's
military buildup, including the expected acquisition of
MIG fighter aircraft that would offset Honduras's regional
air superiority. This buildup is intended in part to
force Tegucigalpa to restrict anti-Sandinista units based
in Honduras and perhaps eventually to enable direct strikes
political stability and benefit the left.//
following the latest bombing in the capital.//
be compounded as a result of the hardship suffered by
the 500,000 residents who lost electric or water service
//The government lacks the resources to buy arms on
the open market, and a turn to non-Western sources may
be its only alternative to US military assistance. This
option appears unlikely for now because it might entail
shifts in foreign policy or other unpalatable commitments.
Nevertheless, in the absence of increased US backing,
Honduras may begin shifting toward a more neutral stance
rights to Honduran airfields.//
The Military Aid Issue
//Nicaragua's military predominance has heightened
the government's sense of vulnerability and contributed
to the disappointment over what Honduran leaders view as
an inadequate US response to the country's military needs.
Commander in Chief Alvarez contrasts the delayed deliv-
eries and cost of US military assistance with the sub-
stantial flow of free Cuban and Soviet military aid to
Nicaragua. He is especially disgruntled because of the
role he has played in ensuring the US emergency access
//After six months in office, the civilian govern-
ment has established excellent relations with the mili-
tary, which initially worried that the ruling Liberal
 would threaten its interests. Senior military officers
are now only concerned about Foreign Minister Paz Barnica,
whom they suspect may harbor pro-Sandinista sympathies.//
//Suazo has gone out of his way to back Alvarez.
The President firmly endorsed Alvarez's recent promotion
to Brigadier General despite strong opposition from some
key officers. Suazo's acceptance of the dominance of
the armed forces in the newly created National Security
Council reflects his sensitivity to the military's desire
to continue to play a major role in foreign policy and
defense matters.//
//While deeply committed to social progress, the
Suazo administration has realistically supported fiscal
austerity and the development of programs to deal with
the country's economic problems. Economic growth is
unlikely to show any improvement over the dismal per-
formance in 1981. As a result, Suazo and Alvarez hope
for additional US economic support.//
//Honduras will seek short-term aid to replace elec-
tric generators and to assist the victims of recent heavy
flood damage in the south. The government also wants
balance-of-payments support and relief from the recently
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