(UNTITLED)

• Document Type: CREST
• Collection: General CIA Records
• Document Number (FOIA) /ESDN (CREST): CIA-RDP84T00301R000600010003-8
• Release Decision: RIPPUB
• Original Classification: T
• Document Page Count: 13
• Document Creation Date: January 12, 2017
• Document Release Date: August 12, 2010
• Sequence Number: 3
• Publication Date: October 27, 1982
• Content Type: REPORT

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C,Q
National Intelligence Daily
(Cable)
Top Seeret-
27 October 1982
Copy 4 0 2
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Top Secret
Spain: Socialist Victory at Hand . . . . .
. . . . . . .
.
1
Greece-US: Base Negot
iations Begin . . . . . . . . . . .
.
2
China-USSR: Talks To
USSR-US: Summit Prosp
Resume Next Year . . . . . . . . .
ects Poor . . . . . . . . . . . . .
.
.
4
4
Japan: Election Sched
ule . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .
.
5
Syria-Lebanon: Syrian Troop Training . . . . . . . . . .
.
6
Kenya-Tanzania-Uganda:
Deteriorating Relatio
ns . . . . .
.
9
Canada: Lockout of Lon
gshoremen . . . . . .
. . . . . .
.
9
Top Secret
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Top Secret
SPAIN: Socialist Victory at Hand
//The Socialists are virtually certain to place first--and
could easily win an absolute parliamentary majority--in the national
election tomorrow.//
Comment: //The voting system, which is weighted
toward conservative rural areas, has worked against the
Socialists in the past. This year, however, the party
is doing well in nonurban parts of Spain long dominated
by the center-right.//
//The party also seems to be running stronger in
Catalonia and in the Basque provinces than it has pre-
viously. The center-right would have to control these
two regions to offset the likelihood of strong leftist
showings in Madrid and Andalucia.//
The Socialists also will be helped by the lack of
credible alternatives on both their immediate right and
left. The collapse of the Union of the Democratic Center
apparently has persuaded many of its followers to support
the Socialists rather than gamble on former Prime Minis-
ter Suarez's shaky new party. Dissension in the Commu-
nist Party will cause some of its members to vote for the
Socialists as the sole force on the left with a chance
of governing.
//After the election, these factors may result in a
polarized political landscape dominated by the democratic
right and the moderate left. The Socialist landslide
predicted in some opinion polls probably will accentuate
this trend. It will push voters who want to back a win-
ner to the Socialists and persuade others that the Pop-
ular Alliance is the only effective opposition on the
right.//
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GREECE-US: Base Negotiations Begin
The Greek Government appears to want a new base agreement with
the US, but it will drive a hard bargain in the negotiations that
begin today in Athens.
The government has announced it considers six to nine
months a "reasonable period" for concluding a new agree-
ment. According to a government spokesman, however,
the actual length of the talks will be worked out be-
tween Athens and Washington. Greece has ruled out any
unilateral move to terminate the talks or remove the
The bases are now operated under a bilateral agree-
ment of 1953. Talks with the previous government were
postponed just before the parliamentary elections in
October 1981 that brought Prime Minister Papandreou to
power. A number of the Greeks who will be involved in
the negotiations also were involved in the earlier talks.
bases.
Comment: The government probably is still developing
its specific bargaining positions, but any agreement will
have to deal with Greek concerns about maintaining a bal-
ance of power in the Aegean. In this regard, Athens is
more likely to demand high-quality weapons on concessional
terms than an explicit ratio of aid to Greece and Turkey
or a security guarantee. Negotiations also are likely to
address command and control arrangements, restrictions on
use of bases in non-NATO roles, and a timetable for re-
moving the bases or periodically reviewing the agree-
ment.
Athens almost certainly is prepared to negotiate
longer than the announced six to nine months. Official
emphasis on brief talks probably is only public postur-
ing, although it also may reflect a desire by Papandreou
not to be faced with defending an agreement shortly
before the next parliamentary elections. At a minimum,
Papandreou will be looking for some symbolic--and
readily demonstrable--concessions from the US that will
allow him to sell the agreement to both the Greek
public and his own party.
Top Secret
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says the Sino-Soviet talks have ended and will resume in
Moscow early next year. The two sides reportedly held
six meetings between 5 and 20 October, during which the
Soviets proposed issuing a joint document on the discus-
sions. The Chinese refused, reiterating their conditions
for improved relations--the withdrawal of Soviet troops
from the border, Mongolia, and Afghanistan, and an end
the US Embassy in Beijing
to Soviet support for Vietnam.
Comment: Premier Zhao Ziyang recently said China
will continue to talk with the Soviets even if they
maintain their "hegemonistic" policy. The next round
may deal with such matters as economic, cultural, and
scientific and technological agreements that would pro-
vide a basis for reducing tensions.
USSR-US: Summit Prospects Poor
A Soviet lecturer in Moscow claimed last week that
the absence of any reference to a US-Soviet summit in
US media reporting on the talks earlier this month between
Secretary of State Shultz and Foreign Minister Gromyko
indicates that neither side wants such a meeting now. He
warned his Soviet audience not to expect positive devel-
lopments in US policy toward the USSR, even after the
Congressional elections, primarily because of the con-
tinuing conservatism of US public opinion. A deputy
director of the USA Institute told a former US official
a few days earlier that Soviet leaders are not interested
in a summit because it might improve President Reagan's
chances of being reelected.
Comment: These statements suggest Soviet pique
over reports that the US has no interest in a meeting
before a political succession in the USSR, and they also
may reflect misgivings among the leadership about Presi-
dent Brezhnev's ability to conduct an effective summit.
Brezhnev first proposed such a meeting in February 1981,
and Soviet news agencies continued to publicize Moscow's
interest until the meeting between Shultz and Gromyko.
A high-level decision may have been made to inform the
Soviet public that there will be no summit or any other
improvement in bilateral relations in the near future.
Top Secret
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Top Secret
Liberal Democratic Party leaders have decided to hold
presidential elections that conform to the original
schedule. Ballots will be mailed to rank-and-file party
members between 1 and 4 November and are to be returned
to party headquarters by 23 November. They will be counted
the next day, and on 25 November the party members in the
Diet will elect a new party president from among the top
three votegetters.
Comment: Party officials had briefly considered
moving the elections up one week in order to minimize
the delay in government decisionmaking and the damaging
effect of a long, divisive primary. Now that they have
decided on the original schedule, government action on
any but the most routine issues is unlikely. The visits
of several high-level foreign officials already have been
postponed, and Japan may lower the level of its delegation
at the GATT ministerial meeting that opens on 24 November.
Minister of International Trade and Industry Abe had
planned to attend but he is one of the four presidential
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SYRIA-LEBANON: Syrian Troop Training
elements of Syrian raga es in the Be as
Valle of Lebanon may have returned to Syria for train-
ing.
Comment: If Syrian units in the Bekaa Valley are
detaching troops for training in Syria, the Syrians
probably do not expect a major clash with the Israelis
in the near future. The movement of vehicles and troops
as they rotate into and out of Lebanon for training could
be giving rise to recent allegations in the Lebanese
press that Syria is strengthening its forces in the
Bekaa Valley.
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The Philippine Government has announced that it
agrees in principle with the IMF on conditions for a new
balance-of-payments standby loan of $340 million, which
will be accompanied by another loan of $170 million
designed to cover shortfalls in expected export earnings.
Precise terms of both loans will be made public next
month, when the Philippines also is scheduled to announce
agreement with the World Bank on a $250 million credit
to domestic industry. Manila has anticipated a record
balance-of-payments deficit of about $900 million in
1982.
Comment: The loans will reassure private foreign
bankers that the IMF and World Bank approve of Manila's
economic policies. Disagreement over Philippine fiscal
policy has delayed the standby loan since March, with
the IMF claiming Manila's budget deficits were exces-
sive. Although both sides appear to have compromised,
the Philippine Central Bank claims that no major depar-
tures from current economic policies will be required.
Nevertheless, the Fund and the Bank will require that
policy reforms begun in 1980 continue.
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KENYA-TANZANIA-UGANDA: Deteriorating Relations
//A spokesman for Kenyan President Moi has criticized
Tanzania for providing refuge to two Kenyan rebels in-
volved in the coup attempt in Nairobi in August. Moi
believes the decision to give the Kenyans safety proves
that Tanzanian President Nyerere was involved in the plot.
Moi also believes Ugandan
President Obote had foreknowledge of and supported the
attempted takeover. According to the US Embassy, Moi may
now turn a blind eye to the activities of the Ugandan
dissidents operating in Kenya.//
Comment: //Moi apparently is heeding the advice of
politicians in his inner circle, who are eager to ingra-
tiate themselves with him or to settle scores with Nyerere
and Obote.
The de-
teriorating relations resulting from Moi's suspicions
reduce the likelihood that agreement can be reached any
time soon on distributing the assets of the defunct East
African Community, a key issue in regional relations.//
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CANADA: Lockout of Longshoremen
//A contract dispute in British Columbia between
long-shoremen and the Maritime Employers Association,
which led to a lockout on 19 October, has closed the
province's six grain ports and is beginning to disrupt
the rail system in western Canada. The number of grain
freight trains had fallen from 40 to 25 per day by the
end of last week and is expected to be down to 15 per
day by the end of the month. The railways have laid off
nearly 2,000 workers, almost 15 percent of the railworkers
in western Canada.//
Comment: //If the lockout continues for more than
a month., grain traffic on the railways may come to a
standstill as storage facilities at ports in British
Columbia are filled to capacity. A prolonged interrup-
tion of loading activity might force China, Japan, and
other Canadian customers around the Pacific to look to
the US as an alternative source of grain.//
Top Secret
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Top Secret
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