NATIONAL INTELLIGENCE DAILY MONDAY 6 DECEMBER 1982

• Document Type: CREST
• Collection: General CIA Records
• Document Number (FOIA) /ESDN (CREST): CIA-RDP84T00301R000600010130-7
• Release Decision: RIPPUB
• Original Classification: T
• Document Page Count: 9
• Document Creation Date: December 22, 2016
• Document Release Date: August 20, 2010
• Sequence Number: 130
• Publication Date: December 6, 1982
• Content Type: REPORT

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National Intelligence Daily
Monday
6 December 1982
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 Sanitized Copy Approved for Release 2011/02/18: CIA-RDP84T00301 R000600010130-7
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`% UK: Concern Over INF
opposition to INF.
British officials have told the US Embassy that
Prime Minister Thatcher is becoming concerned over the
domestic political repercussions of INF deployment in a
possible election year. An official close to the Prime
Minister has indicated increasing interest in "dual key"
arrangements, under which assurances would be given that
US nuclear weapons based in the UK are under the control
Other officials are pushing for completion of a NATO
study of possible reductions in shorter range nuclear
systems. Some reportedly are expressing sympathy for the
idea that INF equipment deliveries scheduled for spring
be delayed until late next year, closer to the time of
actual cruise missile deployment.
Comment: Thatcher almost certainly is aware that
any hint of British backtracking would endanger the pro-
gram in other basing countries. The British are on
schedule with their basing preparations, and they have
1 argued against West German pleas to delay arrival of INF
equipment. The Prime Minister is unlikely to take any
action that could be construed as a sign of faltering
The remarks of the British officials nevertheless
are the first evidence that the general election may
influence policy on INF. Tory strategists are concerned
about polls showing growing opposition to INF and skepti-
cism about US policies. They would like to undercut
support for the Campaign for Nuclear Disarmament's plan
to launch a civil disobedience drive.
To exploit voter support for a national deterrent,
the Tories will want to play up London's role in nuclear
weapons decisionmaking. They also probably will try to
forestall criticism that Thatcher is taking too hard a
line by emphasizing the need to make the Soviets appear
responsible for lack of pro ress in arms control negoti-
ations.
Top Secret
6 December 1982
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 KENYA: Increasing Tribal Tensions
Leaders of Kenya's largest and most influential tribe,
the Kikuyu, fear that President Moi is determined to purge
members of the tribe from the government. They believe
that election irregularities by Moi's supporters prevented
one of their members from winning a recent byelection for
a National Assembly seat in a predominantly Kikuyu dis-
trict. A member of Moi's small Kalenjin tribe won the
election. One Kikuyu official told the US Embassy that
the Kikuyu are dissatisfied with what they see as US and
British support for Moi's internal political policies, in-
Comment: Moi has rejected advice that he replace
several Kikuyu cabinet ministers. Nevertheless, the belief
that he is working against the tribe's interests may en-
able Kikuyu leaders to overcome factional divisions that
/ have damaged the group's political power. The President's
support has eroded during the past year, and it would be
impossible for him to maintain his position for long against
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 China has retreated from its hardline position on
bilateral textile trade in an effort to resume negotia-
tions before the agreement expires at the end of this
month. Chinese chief negotiator Li Dengshan on Saturday
offered to discuss several issues that he had been un-
willing to address during the talks last month. He
stressed, however, that China must receive more favorable
treatment than do large suppliers of textiles to the
US--Taiwan, Hong Kong, and South Korea--and suggested
an overall growth rate of 6 percent. The Chinese rejected
as "preconditions" Washington's suggested baselines for
resuming talks, but they did not criticize US textile
trade policy as they did when discussions began last
Comment: China probably is anxious to conclude a
new agreement before the end of the year to avoid possible
US-imposed unilateral controls that would sharply reduce
V its textile exports. The proposal reflects the consid-
erable pressure Beijing is under to increase exports,
3 and it provides a basis for further negotiations.
Top Secret
7 6 December 1982
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 Sanitized Copy Approved for Release 2011/02/18: CIA-RDP84T00301 R000600010130-7