NATIONAL INTELLIGENCE DAILY (CABLE) 27 DECEMBER 1982

• Document Type: CREST
• Collection: General CIA Records
• Document Number (FOIA) /ESDN (CREST): CIA-RDP84T00301R000600010194-7
• Release Decision: RIPPUB
• Original Classification: T
• Document Page Count: 11
• Document Creation Date: December 22, 2016
• Document Release Date: August 25, 2010
• Sequence Number: 194
• Publication Date: December 27, 1982
• Content Type: REPORT

Sanitized Copy Approved for Release 2011/02/18: CIA-RDP84T00301 R000600010194-7
^ tnrector of
Central
Intelligence
National Intelligence Daily
(Cable)
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CPAS NIDC 82-300C
27 December 1982
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 Mexico: Business Community's Concerns . . . . . . . . . . 2
Iran: Internal Liberalization . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 3
Portugal: Political Pressures Increase . . . . . . . . . . 4
Jamaica: Opposition Leader To Resign . . . . . . . . . . . 8
Peru-Argentina: Tank Coproduction Agreement . . . . . . . 8
 Top
InfZuentiaZ business Leaders are expressing concern that
no segment of Mexican society is ready to accept its share of the
The businessmen, in discussions with US Embassy
officials, are reacting to the public outcry following
the doubling of gasoline prices early this month. Imme-
diately after the announcement of price hikes, long lines
of irate customers appeared and some temporary takeovers
took place at gasoline stations. The businessmen see
some potential for violent incidents when new austerity
The business leaders expect that the minimum wage
adjustment on 1 January will be held to 25 to 30 percent
and that there will be a sharp drop in real wages in 1983.
Comment: The businessmen represent organizations
that support the austerity program and that are favorably
impressed by President de la Madrid's early actions.
Although they are skeptical about the program's feasibil-
ity, they probably will continue to back it.
If the pinch provokes serious labor unrest and if
protests against the austerity measures become widespread
and intense, the new administration is likely to back
away from some of its program. Such backsliding could
cause gaps in foreign financing and make the economic
 Iranian leaders are trying to create a more relaxed domestic
climate to increase popular support and encourage skilled exiles
to return home.
Ayatollah Khomeini has declared twice in the last
two weeks that Iran is no longer in a revolutionary
situation, stressing that the regime now has to focus
on guaranteeing civil liberties. He has called for re-
spect of property and personal rights and for relaxation
of strict religious and revolutionary credentials for
employment. Earlier, Tehran eased import and travel
Officials throughout Iran have moved quickly to
publicize steps being taken to put Khomeini's guidelines
into effect, including the establishment of offices to
investigate charges of misconduct by revolutionary organ-
izations, including the Revolutionary Guard and the Rev-
olutionary Courts. According to Iranian officials abroad,
Tehran also is considering new incentives for managers
and technicians and may even broadcast more entertaining
radio and television programs. Khomeini's remarks will
Comment: The leadership is responding to the grow-
ing discontent among lower class Iranians about economic
hardships and revolutionary excesses. The new policies
are in line with suggestions made in September by former
Prime Minister Bazargan that were criticized by leading
clerics. There are no indications, however, that Bazargan
or his followers will gain a more prominent role.
Revolutionary organizations, which have been vir-
tually autonomous for four years, will resist increased
controls on their activities. As long as the clerics
continue to insist that "counterrevolutionaries" will
be pursued aggressively, exiles--including technocrats
needed to make economic and social programs work--will
remain skeptical about the regime's promises to protect
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//Following former Prime Minister Mota Pinto's refusal to return
to office, the governing Democratic AZZiance is coming under increas-
ing pressure to find a successor to Prime Minister BaZsemao.//
//Balsemao's resignation has brought government activ-
ity to a halt, resulting in the automatic withdrawal from
the parliament of his austerity budget and leaving unde-
cided the status of senior military commanders. Bilateral
negotiations with the US have also been indefinitely
postponed, and high-level negotiations on EC entry are
being delayed.//
//The Socialist Party--the principal opposition--has
called for early elections. Militant Communist trade
unions are supporting this demand with nationwide demon-
Comment: //President Eanes has grown increasingly
dissatisfied with the Democratic Alliance over the past
two years, and mounting public concern over the govern-
ment's standstill will reinforce his inclination to dis-
solve the parliament. He wants to show that he can still
act decisively, despite the enactment last fall of con-
stitutional revisions trimming his powers.//
//Eanes nonetheless will probably delay acting until
early January. Among other things, he knows early elec-
tions could undermine any lingering hope he has of form-
//The two main parties in the Democratic Alliance,
Balsemao's centrist Social Democratic Party and the
conservative Social Democratic Center Party, are divided
over economic policy and the allocation of power in the
Alliance. Even so, they are united in the hope of avoid-
ing national elections so soon after the setback suffered
by the coalition in local elections earlier this month.
The odds are better than even that they will work out a
Top Secret
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//The French Communist Party and the Soviet Embassy
in Paris have accused the French media of conducting an
anti-Communist campaign. The party has charged that
the state-supervised television and radio networks are
publicizing "false reports" about the use of forced
labor on the Soviet gas pipeline to Western Europe and
about Bulgaria's involvement in the assassination attempt
against the Pope. The Soviet Embassy, in a letter to
prominent editors, has denounced the media for "impudent
Comment: //French Communist leaders have grown in-
creasingly angry about what they view as the government's
tolerance of anti-Communist reporting on television and
radio. Their willingness to side openly with the Soviets
will aggravate already strained relations with Socialist
coalition partners and could alienate those Communist
voters who oppose close identification with Moscow. The
Soviets have begun responding more actively to Western
charges of Bulgarian and Soviet complicity in the attack
 Top
The leading radical in former Prime Minister Manley's
entourage, D. K. Duncan, reportedly has offered to resign
as party general secretary. Duncan, a Marxist closely
linked to the Cubans and Soviets, is widely suspected of
involvement with political violence in past elections.
Comment: Manley probably is willing to let Duncan
step aside as a gesture to party moderates. The former
Prime Minister's interest in attracting middle class
support for his financially strapped party is part of a
campaign to improve its image. A recent opinion poll
showed him overtaking Prime Minister Seaga in popularity.
Duncan is likely to stay active in leftwing circles until
 Sanitized Copy Approved for Release 2011/02/18: CIA-RDP84T00301 R000600010194-7