FY 1980 GOALS PROGRAM, THIRD QUARTER

• Document Type: CREST
• Collection: General CIA Records
• Document Number (FOIA) /ESDN (CREST): CIA-RDP84T00316R000100070008-3
• Release Decision: RIPPUB
• Original Classification: S
• Document Page Count: 29
• Document Creation Date: December 15, 2016
• Document Release Date: December 18, 2003
• Sequence Number: 8
• Publication Date: July 25, 1980
• Content Type: MF

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NATIONAL FOREIGN ASSESSMENT CENTER
WASHINGTON, D. C. 20505
2,13 JUL 1980
MEMORANDUM FOR: Deputy Director of Central Intelligence
VIA . Director of Central Intelligence
SUBJECT : FY 1980 Goals Program, Third Quarter
L
Attached are the agenda and progress reports for our 7 August 1980
third quarter review of the FY 1980 Goals Program.
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Attachments:
A. Agenda
B. Goals Statements and Progress Reports
UNCLASSIFIED When
Separated From Attachments.
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24 July 1980
NFAC 1980 GOALS PROGRAM--THIRD QUARTER
7 August 1980
AGENDA
On 7 August 1980 we will be briefing on Goals 1, 2, 3, and 4. We
have included written progress reports on improving crisis and warning
management, the Continuity of Government project, and production planning,
although we will not be making oral presentations on these three topics.
We will, however, be available for questions regarding their content
following our formal presentation.
I. Goal #1: Establish centralized direction and support structure
to achieve better balanced production:
--The National Intelligence Richard Lehman
Council, Progress to Date Chairman, National Intelligence
Council
II. Goal #2: Improve the quality of analysis:
?--Southwest Asia Analytic Helene L. Boatner
Center Director of Political Analysis
--Physical Work Space
R. E. Hineman
Deputy Director, National
Foreign Assessment Center
III. Goal #3: Structure production plans for major, long-range
intelligence questions of the 1980s:
--Measures of Force Rae Huffstutler
Effectiveness Director of Strategic Research
-World-wide Energy Demand Maurice C. Ernst
Analysis Director of Economic Research
IV. Goal #4: Improve personnel management:
--Implementation of Agency-wide R. E. Hineman
Personnel Management Decisions, Deputy Director, National
PRAs, and NFAC/PMCD Working Foreign Assessment Center
Relations...-
--The Status of NFAC Professionall
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Women NFAC Federal omens Program Officer
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CONFIDENTIAL
Goal #1:
Establish centralized direction and support structure
to achieve better balanced production.
Focus on:
The National Intelligence Council - progress to date.
Presenter:
Richard Lehman
Chairman, National Intelligence Council
Objectives:
a)
Improve the quality of national intelligence
b)
c)
estimates and speed up their production;
Provide organizational framework for more efficient
operation of the NIO system; and
Foster increased interaction of Intelligence Com-
munity agencies in producing intelligence estimates.
Milestones:
1)
Establish and begin organizing the National Intel-
ligence Council (3 December 1979)
2)
Recruit officers from within CIA for first contin-
gent of NIC Analytic Group estimates officers
(April 1980)
3)
Recruit NIC Analytic Group officers from other
NFIB agencies and academic world,(1980)
4)
Recruit 2nd, 3rd, and 4th NIOs-at-Large (1980)
5) Clarify and redefine basic types of interagency
papers and streamline their production procedures
(1980)
6) Systematize the planning of NIO-produced inter-
agency papers (1980)
Progress to date: 1) DCI. approved establishing NIC 3 December 1979.
2) One additional NIO-at-Large in process and may
join NIC in August 1980.
3) Additional potential NIOs-at-Large contacted and
in negotiation.
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Progress to date: 5) Production of interagency papers has increased:
(cont'd) in first half CY 1980, NIC produced 6 NIEs, 2 SNIEs,
17 IIMs, 6 Alert Memos, as opposed to 4 NIEs, 2SNIEs,
8 IIMs, and 9 Alert Memos in first half CY 1979.
6) Analytic Group has already produced 3 informal
think-piece NIC Memoranda that NIC has discussed
and distributed.
7) Redefinitions of types of interagency papers and
revised procedures for producing them approved
and promulgated to NFIB by DCI.
8) NIC production plan for July 80-June 81 proposing
73 NIEs, SNIEs, and IIMs developed and circulated
to NFAC and NFIB.
9)
Issues/Problems: 1)
Procedures established within NIC for better system-
atizing the individual and collective activities
of the NIOs.
Dissents from estimative judgments recently sharper
and more difficult to deal with, particularly from
Pentagon agencies.
2) Still taking too long to complete some estimates,
principally because of unsatisfactory first drafts.
(Drafts from AG have been winning praise thus far.)
3) Personnel recruiting is going slowly, but this was
anticipated for most part.
4) Still some sorting out of overlapping functions and
jurisdictions among NIOsaard`NFAC offices to be done.
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GOAL #2: Improve the Quality of Analysis
Focus on: Southwest Asia Analytic Center
Presenter: Helene L. Boatner
Director, Political Analysis
Objectives: Integrate political, military and economic
analysis
Integrate work on Southwest Asia with related
work. on the USSR
Protect analytic assets for research and in-depth
analysis
Milestones: Establish Southwest Asia Analytic Center (May 1980)
Co-locate OPA South Asia analysts with former
Afghan Task Force (May 1980)
Co-locate Iranian team with remainder of Center
(July 1980)
Develop research program (July 1980)
Monitor production
Reassess the need for the Center (May 1981)
Progress to
date: 1. SAAC activated; daily meetings begun (SAAC,
OPA/USSR, NIOs, DDO, and RES)
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3. OPA South Asia analysts moved May 1980
4. Production since date of establishment--in
addition to PDBs, NIDs, briefings, and Sitreps--
has been substantial:
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Research Papers
May 1980 Iran: The Persian Gulf Islands
Dispute
Intelligence Assessments
June 1980
July 1980
Iran: Iraq and the Exile Opposition
Iran: Factional Conflict and Po-
litical Instability
Intelligence Memoranda
May 1980
Iran: Near Term Political Prospects
June 1980
Afghanistan: Factions in the Ruling
Party
Typescripts
June 1980
Iran: Hostage Trials
June 1980
US Options in Iran (three versions)
July 1980
US Options Toward the Shah's Funera
l
July 1980
Current Status of the Hostage Crisi
s
and the Implications of US Policy
Options
May 1980
Present Soviet Strength and Casualt
ies
in Afghanistan (for Brzezinski
through DCI)
June 1980
The Forces in Afghanistan (for
President's use at Venice Summit)
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The Forces in Afghanistan
5. Short-term production plan has been formulated:
USSR-Afghanistan: The First Six Months
The Unraveling of Soviet/Iranian Relations
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6. Several of the above papers (Iran's Role in
Afghanistan, Iranian Relations 25X1
are on topics developed in Jai y meetings and
probably would not have appeared under a more
.traditional organization.
7. A longer-term program for in-depth analysis of major
questions has been developed. Key projects now
planned either in SAAC or elsewhere in NFAC are
as follows:
August 1980 Mujahedin and Fedayeen: Iran's
Disenfranchised--SAAC
September 1980 Assessment of Soviet-Iranian Re-
lations (update of a major paper
done in February)--OPA/USSR
September 1980 Soviet Attitudes Toward the Baluchis--
OPA/USSR
September 1980 Soviet Assets and Interests in Iran--
SAAC
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December 1980 Military Trer2?X1
In a New ,nvironment--OSR
December 1980 Islamic Ideology and Its Prospects--
NIC
December 1980 Foreign Policy After 25X1
Afghanistan- -SAAC
December 1980 Search for Security Aft2e~X1
Alghanistan--SANC
January 1981 I Current and Future 25X1
rship
LLeadde --SAAC
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January 1981
January 1981
March 1981
March 1981
March 1981
April 1981
June 1981
June 1981
Iranian-Military Capabilities-.-OSR
Soviet Views of the Islamic In-
surgence--OPA/USSR
Soviet Foreign Policy--Implications
of the Afghanistan Occupation--
OPA/USSR
The Soviet Military: Implications
of Lessons Learned in Afghanistan--
OSR
Prospects for Stability-
-Geographic and Cultural Barriers
to Long-Term Soviet Control of
Afghanistan- -OGCR
Afghanistan a Year After Soviet
Occupation--NIC
8. One general discussion has been held on a major
paper; it led to substantial revisions in content
as well as organization. We plan similar round
table reviews of all major products of the SAAC.
9. Iranian team slated to move by the end of July.
Issues/Problems:
1. Current estimate is that SAAC space cannot be re-
configured for decent working conditions until
October or later--seven months after the decision
was made to establish the Center.
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--protecting analysts from incessant demands for
quick response
--election period likely to aggravate the nrohig--m
--heavy resource commitment
in the SAAC will be a target en new demands arise)
3. Potential friction because of overlapping responsi-
bilities.
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9 July 1980
Goal r2: Improve the Quality of Analysis
Focus on: Physical Work Space
Presenter : R. E. Hinman
Deputy Director, NFAC
Objective: To provide an improved environment hospitable to both inde-
pendent and interdisciplinary analysis and production.
Milestones:
1. Define space problem. (First Quarter, FY 1980)
2. Present directorate-wide requirements to Director of
Logistics. (Begin First Quarter, FY 1980 and update as
necessary)
3. Establish mechanism to systematically manage problem on
directorate-wide basis. (First Quarter, FY 1980)
4. Establish action and long-range expansion plan to achieve
objective. (First Quarter, FY 1980)
5. Begin implementing plan. (Second Quarter, FY 1980)
6. Plan and begin executing a,phased consolidation of OGCR
into Headquarters Building. (First Quarter, FY 1980)
Progress to Date:
1. Defined minimal acceptable average office'space at 115
sq. ft./person and completed survey of available space
and N-FAC-wide requirements in November 1979. (Updated
May 1980 memo attached)
2. Establish NFAC Space Advisory Council in December 1979
to centrally manage problems and determine priority
NFAC requirements.
3. Net with Director of Logistics in December 1979 to discuss
NFAC requirements.
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4. Action plan drawn up to rationalize use of current space
and acquire additional space.
5. Systematic renovations and relocations begun cording to
directorate-wide priority requirement list.
6. Have begun consolidation of OGCR in Headquarters Building;
first elements moved 27 March 1980.
Issues/Problems:
1. Could eventually mean a constraint on hiring.
2. Impact of further automation.
3. We have not yet approached 115 sq. ft. per person.
Machines still compete. Furthermore, we have no space
to use for ad hoc interoffice teams who should work
together for the duration of their projects. This
seriously impedes our ability to do inter-office, multi-
disciplinary work.
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Goal #3 Structure Production plans for major, long-range research
on measures of force effectiveness.
Focus on:
Presenter:
Director o Strategic Research
Objective: To develop new measures of effectiveness of military forces,
to discover and apply current Soviet measures, and to apply
both our own and Soviet measures to weapons systems and
order-of-battle data in order to improve the quality of our
finished intelligence.
-- In FY 81 increase the level of support for data base
development, model, construction and development of
new information sources 25X1
-- Begin a major new effort to develop and apply
measures of effectiveness for conventional forces
in addition to ongoing work on measures for strategic
forces. (No additional cost)
-- To focus collection and analysis efforts on improving
our understanding of Soviet measures of force
effectiveness. 25X1
Milestones:
1. Analyze Soviet Methods of Conventional Force
Measurement for tanks (Oct. 1980) and aircraft (Nov. 1980).
Expand these analyses as new information becomes available.
I I
2. Review, abstract and keyword accumulated resear h material
Implement
data retrieval sys proximately 600 texts and 400
articles. (FY 81,1
3. Develop integrated Measures of Effectiveness for combined
weapons systems in conventional and strategic forces.
Expand work on application of measures rom Soviet
sources in previous project. (FY 81,1 f
4. Develop a new Measure of Effectivess for Tank/Anti-Tank
forces primarily for application to t~e aaareaa I-e-T f such
forces in the NATO guidelines area.
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2. Two working seminars held (Nov. 79 and June 80) to evaluate
analysis and collection efforts to date. The second seminar,
a two day affair included Andy Marshall, Adm. Kollmorgan,
Pau o owitz (PA&E), Gen. Whitehead and key
analysts from the services, JCS, CAA and intelligence agencies.
DIA, however, declined our invitation.
3. Development of alternate Soviet and US views of tank
quality from 1950 to 1990. (The article for Studies
in Intelligence.)
4. Development of a Soviet view of aggregate NATO/WP Air Force
capability.
6. Development of MOE for Tank-Anti Tank forces (Apr. 1980)
8. Incorporation of performance measures into NFAC studies.
(See attached bibliography.)
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Issues/Problems:
1. Shortage of skilled personnel: NFAC has abou 25X1
analysts of the skill level required for these TUSKS.
these, Thus, there is direct competition
for the same resources a ween the demands of the NIE 11-3/8
strategic exchange calculations, the development of strategic defensive
MOEs and the development of MOEs for conventional forces. We have
expanded this cadre somewhat in the past year but progress is
difficult.
25X1
3. Funds: We have reprogrammed the level of contractor work this
fiscal year by shifting funds internally. 25X1
The primary emphasis has been to alter and utilize models created
for the DOD, or to get assistance in the exploitation of Soviet
materials. An additional l us being sought next fiscal 25X1
year to augment work in a variety of conventional and strategic
forces analyses and to undertake the new initiatives shown
under the milestones.
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Studies Using Measures of Effectiveness
1. Soviet Capabilities for Strategic Nuclear Conflict Through
the 1980s, NIE 11-3/8.79: Includes both quantitative and
qualitative indexes which illustrate the capabilities of
the Soviet strategic forces in both a SALT and No-SALT
environment. Provides evaluations derived from statistical
measures which illustrate the estimated growth in Soviet
defensive capabilities during the 1979-89 period. Also
includes an assessment of the effects of Soviet civil defense
in reducing casualties from a large-scale retaliatory US
nuclear strike.
2. Memorandum to Holders of the Interagency Intelligence Memorandum:
Soviet Civil Defense: Objectives, Pace, and Effectiveness,
NI IIM 77-029J Draft): Presents a detailed assessment of the
effects of Soviet civil defense in reducing casualties from a
large-scale US retaliatory nuclear strike. Expands on the pre-
sentation made in NIE 11-3/8-79, including sensitivity analyses
to show the impact of variations in the assumptions.
3. The Readiness of Soviet Naval Forces, NI IIM 80-10010JX:
Although this IIM does not use MOEs per se, it does address the
relative effectiveness of the Soviet Navy in terms of unit
availability given various alert rates, adequacy of command,
personnel training and flexibility, and availability of weapons
and platforms for assigned tasks.
4. Reassessment of Urban Evacuation in Soviet Civil Defense,
SR 80-10072: Presents a reassessment of Soviet plans for
urban evacuation and documents the effect on estimates of
Soviet casualties from a US retaliatory nuclear strike.
5. Comparisons of Soviet and US Forces for Intercontinental
Attack, Memorandum to NSC Staff, June 1980: Discusses
the vulnerabilities of the US and Socivet ICBM forces.
Addresses cases not included in NIE 11-3/8-79 and focuses
attention on residual capabilities of the Soviet forces
after they conduct an attack on the US ICBM forces with and
without MX and with and without SALT.
6. Soviet Quantitative Methods of Evaluating Potential Force
Confrontations, Draft. RP: Examines a Soviet system of com-
parative unit and equipment values, similar to the US WEI/WUV
system, which the Soviets use to compile a correlation of
forces tables as part. of their tactical quantitative force
assessments.
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7. US and Soviet Airlift capabilities, 1970-85: A Comparison,
SR 80-10053: Provides a perspective on Soviet airlift
capabilities by comparing Soviet and US aircraft inventories
and airlift capability using several.. basic MOEs such as daily
ton-mile capabilities, payload-range capacity, and tons
deliverable per day.
10. North Korean Tank Force Challenges ROK Defense, SR 80-10083:
First CIA quantitative study of key aspects of Korean balance.
Uses WEI and aggregate WEI measures to compare armor and anti-
armor capabilities of the two Koreas, focusing on critical
invasion routes. Includes projections for 1982.
11. Comparison of Ground Forces Near the Sino-Soviet Border,
Draft IA: First comparison of Soviet and Chinese ground
forces using WEI-WUV methodology, NIE 11-14/40-80 will
draw heavily on this study. Uses WEI, aggregate WEI, WUV,
and DE (divisions equivalent) measures to compare all
weapon categories. Other measures include rail and air
transport capacities, ammunition and POL stocks including
days and months of sustainability, and 1990 projections
for key force ratios.
13. China Au
Its Central Reserve of Ground Forces,
SIMR article, March 1980: Evaluates ground force realign-
ments in East China that agument reserves available to oppose
Soviet invasion. Uses aggregate WEIs to compute reserve
improvements for armor, antiarmor, artillery, and overall
effectiveness.
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Goal # 3: Structure Production Plans for Major Long-Range
Intelligence Questions of the 1980s
Focus On: Analysis of Energy Demand
Presenter: Maurice C. Ernst
Director of Economic Research
Objective: To assess the nature and dimension of the process
of the worldwide economic adjustment to energy
scarcity.
CIA research and analysis has been focused on
the prospects for energy supply, especially
oil. We expect a substantial decline in the
West's oil supply and little or no increase in
its total energy supply over the next decade
or so. We have treated energy demand only in
highly aggregative terms. A systematic analysis
of the possibilities for energy conservation
and of changes in patterns of energy consumption
is necessary in order to assess the impact of
energy scarcity on economic growth, inflation,
and trade. In turn assessment of economic
impact will provide clues as to how severe
future social and political disruptions .
associated with the energy crisis may be.
The analysis of energy demand must be approached
both through refinements of macro/economic
analysis and through studies of technical/
engineering possibilities for energy conservation.
For the second type, "from the ground up"
analysis, we have to rely heavily on external
contracts.
1. Intensify the on-going OER effort to model
energy demand on a macro/economic basis
(continuing)
2. To establish an Energy Demand Branch (1980)
3. To establish a preliminary research program
on energy demand (June 1980).
4. To consult with outside experts on the focus
and direction of OER's research on energy
demand (summer 1980).
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5. To begin contracting with outside organizations
for in-depth analysis of energy demand,-(by .
30 September 1980).
6. To request additional positions and external
contract funds in FY 1981-82 to cover the
added requirements for energy demand work.
Progress to Date;
1. OER is modifying its existing econometric
model for total energy demand to better
portray the process of adjustment to higher
oil prices and is developing a sectoral model
to permit better checks on the consistency of
energy forecasts considering changes in the
composition of energy demand and energy sources.
2. An Energy Demand Branch was formed on 14 April
1980 with a skeleton staff, pending acquisition
of new positions.
3. a. Energy demand issues and-related research
were1identified in detail in a study
presented to the Energy Intelligence
Steering Panel on 20 May 1980. DoE
was asked for comments and alternative
proposals were requested.
b. OER/NFAC research projects were established
for completion during 1980 on:
(1) The competing demand for lighter fuels.
(2) Possibilities for the use of coal
(3) Future energy requirements for
automobiles.
4. An OER conference with 10 leading academics
and industry experts on energy took place
20-21 July. The conference focused on OER's
energy demand analysis and the new directions
it might take.
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Goal # 4: Improve Personnel Management
Focus on: Implementation of Agency-wide Personnel Management Decisions,
PRAs and NFAC/PMCD working relations.
Presenter:. R. E. Hineman
DD/NFAC
and APA into NFAC Career Service as
Objective 1: To incorporaane~P N
panels
related to
Milestones:
decisions as issued
1. Formulate NFAC Tracking System rf all19 NAPA
).
by EXCO i and D/OP EiM (1st Quaor
2. Execute and monitor NFAC Tracking System to ensure all reforms
are instituted NFAC-wide (2nd Quarter FY-1980).
3. Begin plans for SIS Development in the form of inter-Agency
rotational assignments (2nd Quarter FY-1980).
Progress to Date:
1. Established a procedure to issue and monitor all approved NAPA
reforms within NFAC.
2. All approved NAPA reforms have been instituted within NFAC as
they are approved.
3. The NFAC Personnel Handbook is in the process of being updated
to conform with the new reforms.
4. With SIS Development in mind, inter-Agency rotational tours for
SIS officers have been finalized.
Problems/Issues:
1. Continued clerical shortage.
Objective 2: To validate and monitor NFAC PRAs
Milestones:
1. Mergers of 0SI/OWI and OCO/PPG (2nd Quarter FY-1980).
2. DDCI review of FY 1980 APP analysis (3rd Quarter FY-1980).
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Progress to Date:
1. Studied PRAs within NFAC to determine their validity before
and after; office mergers.
2. Instituted semi-annual review of NFAC PRAs to better monitor
validity and necessities.
Problems/Issues:
1. Multiple reorganizations within NFAC have created some necessary
PRAs that should be resolved NLT early FY-1981.
Objective 3: Enhance NFAC and OPPP$M/PMCD working relations.
Milestones:
1. Initiate discussions between NFAC and OPPPNI/PNICD (1st Quarter
FY-1980).
2. Assist NFAC offices in understanding position audit process
(1st Quarter FY-1980).
3. Formulate plans with PMCD for Senior Intelligence Analyst posi-
tions (1st Quarter FY-1980).
Progress to Date:
1. We have arranged meetings with NFAC and P;'1CD to coordinate
projected position changes.
2. We assist and serve as liaison for all NFAC offices for most
actions involving PMCD.
3. All NFAC offices have a better understanding of the entire
audit process.
4. In coordination with PMCD we have identified better Senior
Intelligence Analyst positions.
5.. NFAC reorganizations have transpired at a more even keel due
to prior discussions with PMCD.
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Goal #4 : Improve personnel management.
Focus On : The status of NFAC Professional Women
Objective: Increase the number of women in supervisory and managerial
positions (GS/13-15) and the number of minority women pro-
fessionals in all grades.
Presenter:
--Determine the barriers affecting the advancement of
women beyond the GS/12 level.
--Develop a program for managerial development of women.
Milestones: 1. Examine statistics on NFAC professional women.
(March 1980)
2. Examine Career Service Board records of women at the
GS/12-15 level to determine:
a. How they are ranked.
b. Whether they are receiving experience and
training necessary to move into supervisory/
managerial positions. (June 1980)
3. Examine the types of positions women at the GS/12 level
now occupy to determine whether a greater proportion of
women than men are in positions that peak at that level.
(First quarter, 1981)
4. Develop Managerial Development program for women, using
outside consultants.(by the end of FY 1981)
a. Research programs, courses, instructors.
(Dec. 1980)
b. Interview senior NFAC women for suggestions
and input. (Dec 1980)
c. Interview mid-level women (GS/12-13) for
suggestions. (Second quarter FY 1981)
d. Present plan to D/NFAC for approval. (Fourth
quarter, FY 81)
5. Seek new pools from which to recruit minority pro-
fessional women. (June 1981)
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Progress to Date:
1. Statistics obtained from ODP showing NFAC women by
office, by grade, by race.
2. Reviewed with Secretary, Career Service Board, training
received by women, GS/12-15.
3. Reviewed with Secretary, Career Service Board, women
(GS/12-15) ranked ND and HP.
4. Research available managerial and executive development
courses for women (on-going).
Issues/Problems:
1. Statistics show that women do well and are competitive
up to the GS/12 level. Our records show that NFAC pro-
fessional women receive equal training opportunities
except. for management training. We know (also from
statistics) that the proportion of women to men decreases
after grade GS/12. It can probably be assumed that social
and psychological barriers are the factors that prevent
women from experiencing their full potential. Unfortunately,
those two factors cannot be recorded on paper and proven.
Interviewing NFAC senior and mid-level women will, however,
give me some feedback on these theories.
2. There are myriad. and sundry management courses and
management trainers that focus on women. It will be necessary
to review many courses and interview many trainers in order
to obtain the best for NFAC's needs and purposes.
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Goal . Improve Warning and Crisis Management
Presenter : Richard Lehman
National Intelligencer Officer for Warning
Objective : Improve Community ability to issue timely and accurate
warning to the President, the NSC, and the Armed Forces.
-- Establish and improve procedures for issuing
warning.
-- Enhance substantive expressions of warning
intelligence.
Milestones:
1.
Establish a National Warning System.
2.
Establish a Community working group to advise on
warning policy matters.
3.
Define specific points of responsibility for issuing
warning.
4.
Establish a mechanism to advise on warning related
budgetary matters.
5.
Seek improvements in warning analytical methodologies.
6.
Progress to Date:
Develop a warning consciousness and discipline in the
Community.
1.
DCID 1/5, effective 23 May 1979, established a
National Warning System and defined responsibilities
for the Community.
2.
NIO/Warning position was upgraded when NIC was formed
and Lehman retained the warning account in addition
to the C/NIC function.
3.
Warning Working Group is well established. An RMS
representative has been added.
4.
NFIB subcommittee on warning has been formed and stands
ready to convene if required.
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5. Washington Area Operations Centers' Conference has
been revivified.
6. NIOs have accepted their warning responsibility, and
have been recognized by the rest of the Community.
7. Alert Memoranda Community procedure has been imple-
mented. Alert Memoranda have been well received by
policymakers.
8. RMS and WWG have concluded an agreement whereby the
WWG will act in an advisory role to RMS. re. warning
budgetary matters.
9. Community procedure for use of the NOIWON is in final
stages of NFIB approval.
10. Project WISP, with associated work on Force Packages,
continues as the primary experiment in improving
warning analysis and Collection Management. NIO/W,
DIA (JS), and DD/CT are currently sponsoring a
community evaluation of Force Packages.
11. NIOs meet as a body once a month with DD/NFA to
discuss warning issues.
Issues/Problems:
1. SWS is poorly staffed. State and Navy slots have
never been filled. Army billet is presently empty;
imminent departure of NSA representative may leave
a vacancy.
2. WISP funding in FY-81 and 82 is marginal at best.
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Goal: Structure production plans for major long-range intelligence
questions in the 1980s.
Focus On: The Production Planning Process
Presenter:
iie , Production Planning and Review GroupIFMES
Objective #1: Review and restructure the National Intelligence Topics
of current and continuing interest and make them more
useful as policy-level guidance to the intelligence
collectors and analysts.
1. Review of the NITs originally issued in July 1979.
2. Task concerned Agencies to provide a selective list
of current topics to which the Intelligence Community
is expected to respond in the six months or so after
their issuance - Feb-April 80.
3. Draft a matrix reflecting the very tailored and inter-
active aspect of the current NITs and a list of NITs of
continuing interest that provide greater amplification
to the longer term issues and assist in developing their
relationship to DCID 1/2.
4. Revise and complete NIT review by early June 1980.
Progress to Date:
1. The input from all concerned Agencies has been received
and consolidated into a final package, which is scheduled
to be reviewed by the PRC(I) on 25 July.
Issues/Problems:
1. Considerable delay in completing the process was
encountered because the initial effort to update did not
take fully into account the agreement reached at the
PRC(I) on the NITs in July 1979 to substantially limit
the topics of current interest.
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Objective #2: Consolidate in one document, utilizing a common format
and a uniform time frame, the research plans of the five
major NFAC producing offices to produce the NFAC Annual
Research Production Plan.
Milestones:
1. Publish the second NFAC Annual Research Production Plan
structured around thematic issues and computerizing the
product (July 1980).
2. Establish Research Planning Steering Group to guide the
further development of the Production Plan and the
development of thematic issues (July 1980).
3. Develop and refine new issues package for the next running
of the cycle (September 80).
4. Reconstitute the working groups to identify research to
be related to priority issues (September 1980).
S. Individual office research plans developed (October
1980).
6. Review and critique of the research proposals by inter-
office working groups (Nov-Dec 1980).
7. D/NFAC and Office Directors again review proposals with
special attention focused on priority areas. (Dec.
1980).
Progress to Date:
1. Completed.
2. In progress and on schedule.
Issues/Problems:
1. Problems remain in attempting to develop the best method
of identifying areas for priority research, defining
research in a manner that relates to all the Offices, and
developing an issue structured for the wide range of
research. With each running of the cycle we improve the
process and should have it satisfactorily refined in one
or two iterations.
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Objective #3: To develop, in response to the EXCOM charge of
April 1979, a selective list of critical long-range
intelligence problems that can assist in the structuring
and direction of the Agency's resources in the 1980s.
Milestones:
1. Establish a Long Range Planning Working Group comprising
representatives of the production offices, the NIC, SRP,
and CRES with the prime objective of developing a list of
priority issues for Agency concern.
2. Hold frequent meetings to refine issue packages.
3. Let an external contract to guide the process.
Progress to Date:
1. The Working Group has refined a list of issues that has
been submitted to the EXCOM Staff as the central foreign
policy issue package in the new Agency Planning Committee.
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