GUIDELINES FOR PRODUCTION PLANNING

• Document Type: CREST
• Collection: General CIA Records
• Document Number (FOIA) /ESDN (CREST): CIA-RDP84T00316R000100070015-5
• Release Decision: RIPPUB
• Original Classification: K
• Document Page Count: 6
• Document Creation Date: December 15, 2016
• Document Release Date: December 17, 2003
• Sequence Number: 15
• Publication Date: February 8, 1980
• Content Type: MF

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8 February 1980
MEMORANDUM FOR: All Office Directors
Chairman, National Intelligence Council
All NIOs
Chief, Collection Requirements and Evaluation Staff
Chief, Planning, Management, and Evaluation Staff
Senior Review Panel
SUBJECT : Guidelines for Production Planning
1. The NFAC review of the initial research production plan singled
out the lack of an issue-oriented guidance framework in that process as
a major weakness which should be overcome in the next running of the
planning cycle. Accordingly, a proposal to develop such a guidance
framework has been developed and is outlined below. A meeting to discuss
this approach will be held in Room 7E32 on Tuesday, 12 February at 0900.
The meeting will be in lieu of the regularly scheduled NIO meeting.
2. The process of developing an issue-oriented framework to which
the bulk of the planned research of the NFAC production offices and the
NIC can be related involves two phases. The first calls for agreement
on the cardinal points or issues we wish to emphasize in p lanning the
bulk NFAC research. A proposed list prepared by STAT
is attached for your review. At the 12 February meet, want
specitically to address the adequacy of the cardinal issues as formu-
lated in the attached list.
3. The second stage involves the drawing up of a list of specific
issues related to each of the cardinal issues. These should be developed
in such a way that they stimulate interdisciplinary and interoffice y
research at the same time that they provide a structure for more narrowly
focused and single Office efforts. Some examples of specific related
issues are included on the attached sheet.
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INDPI
SUBJECT: Guidelines for Production Planning
4. In the second phase, the development of the specific related
issues will be the responsibility of working groups assigned to each
cardinal issue. The groups will be developed through consultations
involving the existing Production Planning Working Group (made up of
Office Deputy Directors and res resentatives of the NIC and SRP),II STAT
representing D/NFAC, and of PMETE. The groups will e
composed of seni.or individuals wi substantive and/or managerial respon- STAT
sibility for a specific region or function. Each Office and the NIC
will be represented as appropriate. A chairman for each group will also
be named by D/NFAC. Ideally, the same groups should form the nucleus of
the working groups which will review the planned production of the
Offices at a later stage in the planning process.
5. The target date for completing phase 2 is 7 March. At that
point, I will again meet with Office Directors and. the NIOs to review,
refine, and approve the process. At the same time, I will identify
those aspects of the framework that I regard as particularly important
to the overall NFAC Research Program. The framework will then be issued
to the Offices and the NIC as the central guidance for the development
of individual research programs; that is, each planned research proposal
should be related to the overall guidance framework or justifiable on
some other stated basis.
STAT
Bruce - - _ -are-,-- - r.
Director
National Foreign Assessment Center
Attachment:
As stated
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ILLEGIB
1. The Thrust of Soviet Military Programs
(Specific related issues:
(a. The developing strategic force posture
(b. Soviet capabilities for projecting military force in the
Third World
Soviet perceptions of opportunities to intervene abroad
after Afghanistan
(d. The prospects for arms .utral)
2.
Soviet Political Prospects and Foreign Peliey Objectives
(Specific'related issues:
(a. Soviet internal problems, including economic, daring a
period of impending changes in top leadership
(b. The impact of these internal factors on external policies)
3.
Eastern Europe between Moscow and the West: political, economic
and military issues
4.
Security and Stability of the Western Alliance
(Specific related issues:
5. OECD: Trade, Economic Conditions and Prospects
(Specific related issues:
STAT
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6. Middle East: Trends towards Stability and Instability
(Specific related issues:
(a. The capability of Moslem countries to coalesce effectively
against Soviet threats and to accept US support for this
purpose
(b. The role and prospects of Israeli-Arab negotiations
(c. Trends towards nuclear proliferation)
7. China: Economic Modernization and Political Development
8. The Future Security :Prospects in the Far East:
and the USina
9. Major African Prospects
(Specific related issues:
(a. The outlook for Black-White relations in Southern Africa
(b. Ethiopia's role in the Horn).
10. Latin America: Upheavals in Central America and the Caribbean
(Specific related issues:
(a. Cuba's military development and its interventionary
intentions and capabilities in the region
11. Progress and Stability in Key States of the Developing World
(Specific related issues:
12. Pressures and Prospects in the Less Developed World
(Specific related issues:
(a. The NAM after Afghanistan
(b. The economic anad political impact of increasing energy
costs and world economic stagnation and inflation)
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13. Global Politico-Economic Problems
a. The politics and international security
implications of the energy problem
b. Present, and future vulnerabilities of selected
countries to economic sanctions and, vice versa,
present and future capabilties of selected
countries or coalitions for imposing economic
sanctions
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