NFAC RESEARCH PRODUCTION PLANNING

• Document Type: CREST
• Collection: General CIA Records
• Document Number (FOIA) /ESDN (CREST): CIA-RDP84T00316R000100070016-4
• Release Decision: RIPPUB
• Original Classification: K
• Document Page Count: 14
• Document Creation Date: December 19, 2016
• Document Release Date: December 14, 2006
• Sequence Number: 16
• Publication Date: March 5, 1980
• Content Type: MF

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AIIENISTRATIVE INTERNAL USE ONLY
NATIONAL FOREIGN ASSESSMENT CENTER
NFAC 1593-80
5 MAR 19 8'
MMRANDUM 'FOR: All Office Directors
Chairman, NIC
Chief, PMES
Chairpersons, Research Production
Plan Working Groups
SUBJECT: NFAC Research Production Planning
$ O 0 3I ~~ LI3
OFFICE or
Tr l'3 n'`-..:LYSIS
SECT Ev.P K /DJ'2 DIR
WR 198
1. As a result of the 27 February meeting of the Production
Planning Working Group and the NIOs, 14 working groups have been
established to develop thematic issues for broad regional and functional
categories as a framework for the next running of the research planning
cycle. I have reviewed the lists and selected Chairpersons to head
the groups. The list, of the group members and their Chairpersons to-
gether with earlier memoranda outlining the concept of a thematic
framework for the research plan are attached.
2. There will be a meeting of the Chairpersons and the Office
Directors chaired by the Chairman of the National Intelligence Council
in my stead on 7 March at 11:00 in Room 7E32. At that time, additional
material-on the thematic issues prepared by the Offices and the NIOs
will be provided together with further specific guidance on the
process.
Bruce r e, Jr.
Attachment:
as stated
STAT
ADMINISTRATIVE INTERNAL USE OKLY
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Memorandum For: Office Directors, C/NIC, NIOs,
PMES, CRE S , S RP
Subject: NFAC Research Production Plan
1. Attached to this memorandum is a new version of the
framework for the Research Production Plan which was discussed
with you by D/NFAC on 13 February. The framework has been
substantially modified to take into account comments provided
as a result of that meeting. Basically, the attempt to define
cardinal issues has been pared back so that the breadth of
research has been divided into 13 regional and functional
categories much as in the previous production plan. But the
central emphasis of the development of the framework remains
the refinement of those categories into issue oriented themes
to which NFAC research can be related. A number of proposed
examples of such themes are included in the attachment. They
are set forth only as examples of what will be needed. To a
large extent they already reflect the views of the Offices
and the NIOs but must be augmented and refined.
2. The development of these issues will be the responsi-
bility of working groups developed for each general category.
These groups will comprise representatives of each Office
concerned with a given topic and the appropriate NIO. The
individuals to be involved should be both substantively
qualified and able to speak with authority on behalf of their
Office. Of equal importance will be their ability to think
broadly and imaginatively about the specific area of concern
in the development of the issues.
3. Identifying the membership of these groups will be
the responsibility of the Production Planning Working Group
com risin the Deputy Directors of the Office the NIOs,
representing D/NFAC and of PME Staff. STAT
meeting o this group will be held February at
in Room . Each Office representative and NIO should
bring to the meeting a list of proposed candidates for the
working groups. If an Office or NIO feels that more than one
individual can make a substantial contribution to the exercise
they are encouraged to offer several names. D/NFAC will review
the lists and designate a chairman for each group.
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Subject: NFAC Research Production Plan
4. The task of these working groups will be important
in several respects. The research themes they develop will
determine the nature and thrust of the NFAC research effort
for the coming year and perhaps beyond. Those themes must
be sufficiently broad so that the bulk of NFAC's traditional
research effort can be related to them but also imaginative
and innovative so that they stimulate the development of more
demanding and multidisciplinary work. The extent to which
we can relate our research to these issues will reveal a great
deal about the quality and commitment of our resources and
perhaps point up the need of major concentrations of effort
that we are not now making. It must be understood, however,
that the issues are not intended to provide a framework for
all possible research. We want to identify the most important
intelligence research issues only. A number of NFAC research
proposals may not relate in any way and these will have to be
justified on some other basis. Conversely, NFAC may not be
prepared for whatever reason to conduct research under every
theme and indeed the list of themes under some given topic
may only contain one or two items.
5. Once the list of research themes has been developed,
D/NFAC will indicate those to which top priority is to be
given.
Bruce C. Clarke, Jr.
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IRISTRTIVE - INTERNAL E ONLY
NFAC 1096-80
13 February 1980
MEMORANDUM FOR: Office Directors, C/NIC, NIOs,
C/PME, ORES, SRP
SUBJECT: Guidelines for Production Planning
1. As agreed at the 13 February meeting on Research
ion, I would ask that each of you provide me or STAT
I Iwith your recommendations for modifications, ad itions STAT
or a etions to the list of Cardinal Issues by 19 February.
We will consolidate them into a final draft.
2. I want to emphasize that this thematic approach
to constructing the plan has several specific objectives
which must be kept in mind as we move forward. One is to
devise a structure to which we can relate the bulk of
NFAC research including much of the NFAC conventional
and basic research that serves as building blocks for
more complex undertakings. D/NFAC continues to want a
document that covers the range of NFAC research--recognizing
that there continue to be different definitions of what
properly constitutes research. Secondly, through the
careful definition of subcategories under the Cardinal
Issues, we must identify issues that will stimulate the
development of multidisciplinary research that can cut
across organizational and regional or functional lines.
These will be a significant but relatively small portion
of the overall research effort. Such projects will require
new departures and will possibly reveal weaknesses in our
ability to deal with more imaginative and complex issues
that are of policy importance.
3. The challenge to the working groups will be to
develop a mix of issues that relate these separate categories
of research and yet not simply be a shopping list covering all
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A II ISTRATIVE - INTERNAL USE ONLY
SUBJECT: Guidelines for production planning
the work that NFAC has traditionally done. This will
require dedication and imagination on the part of the
groups. I would endorse the proposal set forth at the
meeting that some review at the policy level of the
subcategories would be useful. In addition, D/NFAC will
be reviewing and prioritizing the issues in the framework.
STAT
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ADMINISTfiATIVE E INTERNAL USE l?wY
INTELLIGENCE IN THE 1980s
The surprising events in late 1979, and the way the US
and other countries reacted to them, pose an ineluctable
challenge to the Intelligence Community. It is too early
to tell whether these crises and their perception amount
to a watershed in international affairs and in the world
position and behavior of the United States. But they have
certainly precipitated serious enough questions to require
the Intelligence Community to face a vast array of new
problems, and of old problems seen in a new way. The fact
that there will be a newly elected President and, before
long, a change of leadership in the Soviet Union only adds
a further dimension to the task.
Iran's seizure of American hostages, Soviet intervention
in Afghanistan and the responses to these events were critical
in three distinct ways.
First, as discrete things, they impinged sharply on
various US interests and shed a revealing light on its
position in the world and on that of many other countries:
--Soviet military capabilities and will to
deploy and commit these abroad
--US relations with states in the Middle East
and Southwest Asia
--the cohesion of the Western Alliances
--the world oil problem
--nuclear proliferation
--arms control and the arms trade
--economic growth and stability, and
international trade
--the Non-Aligned Movement, to name but a few
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..r' fir
Second, these events epitomize the character of
emerging world politics, that is, of complex developments
in a highly' interdependent world that is fragile, disorderly,
nasty and dangerous even if it also offers opportunities for.
and needs constructive and cooperative effort.
Third, many Americans have experienced recent shocks
in a way that has began to disturb and perhaps transform
previous perceptions of this world, and of their country's
stake and role in it. Some of these preconceptions have
proved illusory or simplistic.
The impact on the responsibilities of the Intelligence
Community, although perhaps not clear as yet, is bound to
be substantial and pervasive. Indeed, the first priority
is to establish such clarity. The routine perpetuation of
accustomed practices will not be enough. What is needed
badly is an imaginative, self-imposed approach to defining
research tasks about the welter of dynamic problems which
the Intelligence Community must address.
The purpose of the Cardinal Issues is to begin the
process of planning NFAC research for 1981. The nex:
phase is the critical step of identifying research themes
and subjects that look forward imaginatively toward serving
the intelligence needs of policymakers.
To do so, we need to be unencumbered by barriers
between researches that focus on particular countries
and regions, on the one hand, and between research
disciplines on the other. This does not mean that
there should not be ample room for researches that
are specific to regions or disciplines. Such researches
are needed both because they address problems that are
important per se or because they are necessary building
blocks for tackling issues that interlink regions and
disciplines. We need, however, a substantially larger
proportion of researches that address inter-regional or
global issues and issues that demand an interdisciplinary
approach.
ADMINISTRATIVE = INTERNAL USE ONLY
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ADYINISTB.LTIVE tE INTE AL USE ONLY
Because many significant intelligence questions have
crucial Enter-regional or global dimensions (as they also
have national and subnational ones), a number of such issues
are represented on the following list of Cardinal Issues,
and we expect regional working groups formulating research
problems to do so in an inter-regional and global as well
as a regional context.
CARDINAL ISSUES
a. The following classification is to some extent
arbitrary, e.g., some issues under regional headings could
have been put under inter-regional or global ones, or vice
versa. The simple fact is that many interesting issues
have global, inter-regional, regional, state and sub-state
dimensions. In designing intelligence research, the
critical question relates to where significant action is
mainly located or likely to be located from the viewpoint
of US interests. Thus, some global problems may be
researched best within regional frameworks.
b. Despite suggestions to the contrary, we have
refrained from deriving specific research questions from
the broad issues. This fine tuning is the purpose of
Stage II. Many specific suggestions we have received
will be useful at that time.
AUXIA16MATIVE = INTERNAL USE ONLY
'AP -2t
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NFAC Research Production Plan
The following personnel have been selected by their
respective offices to participate in working groups which
will develop issues or research themes to which the bulk of
NFAC proposed research will be related in the next Research
Production Plan. D/NFAC has, in addition, specified individuals
to chair each group and thus are so designated.
1. USSR
A. Political-Military External
OSR -
OCR -
B. Political-Economic
OER -
Chairperson
~airperson
STAT
STAT
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C. Military-Strategic
OSR
NIO
OSWR -
OSR
(Chairperson
D. Military-General Purpose Forces
NIO -
2. Eastern Europe.
NIO/USSR-
OPA -
OER -
OGCR -
OCR -
~irperson
STAT
STAT
STAT
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3. Western Alliance - OECD
NIO -
OSR -
OGCR -
OSWR -
OCR -
4. Middle East (including South Asia)
jairperson STAT
OPA - I (Chairperson
OER -
OSR -
OIA -
OSWR -
NIO -
airperson STAT
STAT
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5. Far East--
OER Chairperson
OPA
OSWR -
OGCR -
OIA -
OCR -
OSR ?-
STAT
STAT
6. Africa
Chairpe
OGCR -
OSR
OCR -
STAT
STAT
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*410 NW
7. Latin America
,Chairperson
OGCR -
OSR
OCR
NIO
8. Indian Ocean
tairperson
STAT
STAT
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9. Global Is-sues
A. Politico/Military
OPA
OSR
OSWR -
Chairperson STAT
OIA
OCR
B. Political-Economic
OER -
NIO -
OGCR -
OCR -
C. Political
OPA -
OCR -
NIO -
OGCR -
Chairperson STAT
Chairperson
STAT
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