SUPERCOMPUTERS

• Document Type: CREST
• Collection: General CIA Records
• Document Number (FOIA) /ESDN (CREST): CIA-RDP85-00142R000100020020-9
• Release Decision: RIPPUB
• Original Classification: S
• Document Page Count: 28
• Document Creation Date: December 22, 2016
• Document Release Date: May 17, 2010
• Sequence Number: 20
• Publication Date: January 26, 1983
• Content Type: MEMO

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1MMEDIATE
Form
160c
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3 1 ~IR 7R:3t
SUSPENSE 4 Feb
Date
Remarks:
Please coordinate with all Directorates
and prepare a response for EXDIR's
signature.
Ph {
f}-)- 28 January 1983
3637 tto-a t) Date
0*?l
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EXECUTIVE SECRETARIAT
Routing Slip
ACTION
INFO
DATE
INITIAL
1
DCI
2
DDC
3
EMIR
4
D/ICS
5
DDI
X
6
DDA
X
7
DDO
X
8
DDS&T
9
Chm/NIC
10
GC
11
IG
12
Compt
13
D/EEO
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D/Pers
15
D/OEA
16
C/PAD/OEA
17
SA/IA
18
AO/DCI
C/IPD/OIS
2
/ODP
x
1
22
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The Director of Central Intelligence
Intelligence Community Staff
ODP
DCI/ICS 83-4224
26 January 1983
MEMORANDUM FOR: Director, Defense Intelligence Agency
Director, National Security Agency
Executive Director, Central Intelligence Agency
VIA: Acting Director, Intelligence Community Staff
Chief, Policy anning Staff
SUBJECT: Supercomputers
1. The ad hoc committee on Supercomputers convened by the Office of
Science & Technology Policy (O/S&TP) met on 24 January 1983 to review the many
issues on this subject. The opinions and proposals presented differed
dramatically; consequently, no consensus could be developed. Doug Pewitt,
Assistant Director, O/S&TP, tasked the members to respond to the following
questions by Monday, 7 February 1983.
A. Do you currently own and operate or time share a
supercomputer? How many or how much usage?
B. Do you have firm plans to acquire the next generation
supercomputer? What specs? When? How many? Approximate dollar
funds per supercomputer?
C. Is there a difference in your requirement between a "big number
cruncher" and an even bigger and more complex AI-based machine?
D. Have you identified a US source or sources?
E. What impact would a successful Japanese fifth generation and
supercomputer with the approximate performance characteristics
have on your agency? (See attachment)
F. Is there a role for the federal government in stimulating,
partially funding, or actually developing the fifth generation
supercomputer. One body of opinion asserts the US Government
should only indicate the range of performance characteristic
desired, the best estimate on quantity required and probable
time frame for delivery with a tolerable price range.
G. Do you have an opinion on the probable success or range of
performance the Japanese are likely to achieve? Basis for
opinion?
UNCLASSIFIED
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UIVLLHJ31 ltU
2. My assessment is that there is not now a strong commitment for US
Government involvement in any aspect of the next supercomputer, nor to any
concentrated reaction to the potential Japanese computer project.
3. Please provide me your comments (which may be classified if
appropriate) by noon, Monday, 7 February. I will provide them to
Dr. Keyworth's office and will obtain and circulate all members' comments for
your individual review and comment prior to developing an Intelligence
Community position.
Attachment:
Japanese Computer Specifications
(20 Charts)
UNCLASSIFIED
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SUBJECT: Supercomputers
Distribution: (DCI/ICS 83-4224)
1 - each addressee w/att
1 - ER w/att
1 - A-D/ICS w/o att
1 - ICS Registry w/att
1 - ICS/Info Handling Committee Staff w/att
1 - ICS/PPS Subject (Supercomputers) w a.tt
1 - ICS/PPS Chrono w/o att
DCI/ICS/PPS
(26 Jan 83)
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JAPANESE GOALS
JAPANESE GOVERNMENT (MITI) AND COMPUTER
INDUSTRY WANT TO BE LEADERS IN SUPER
r(1MDI ITIMr
THREE NATIONAL PROJECTS
- COMPONENTS(
HIGH-SPEED COMPUTER
FIFTH GENERATION COMPUTER
NUMEROUS INDIVIDUAL COMPANY PROJECTS
COMPUTING Los Alamos
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JAPANESE NATIONAL
SUPER-SPEED COMPUTER PROJECT
DURATION: 1982-89
FUNDING: $200M
nR IFrTIVPC. In r Ir. A RI r'DC
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1 GIGABYTE OF MEMORY WITH
.1.5 GIGABYTE BANDWIDTH
100 MEGAFLOPS IN DISTRIBUTED
PROCESSING
PARTICIPANTS: ETL
FUJITSU
HITACHI
NEC
MITSUBISHI
OKI
COMPUTING TOSHIBA
Lis Alamos
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HIGH LEVEL INQUIRY NATURAL LANGUAGE.
LANGUAGE SPEECH. PICTURE
LANfXUGE
KNOWLEDGE BASE
SYSTEM
r
RELATIONAL
ALGEBRA
BASE MECHANISM
(LOGIC PROGRAMING LANGUAGE
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MECHANISM
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DISTRIBUTED FUNCTION
NETWORK SYSTEM
DATA FLOW
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MEC ANISM
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MECHANISM
BASIC CONFIGURATION IMAGE OF THE FIFTH GENERATION
COMPUTER SYSTEM (JAPANESE)
COMPUTING
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Leos Alamos
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5TH GENERATION COMPUTER: SPECIFICATIONS
- HIGHER PERFORMANCE LEVEL AT A LOWER COST
"TRIPARTITE BRAIN"
1) INTELLIGENT INTERFACE SYSTEM
- ACCESS THROUGH NATURAL LANGUAGE AND PICTURES
2) PROBLEM-SOLVING AND INFERENCE SYSTEM
- HANDLE MANY MORE GENERAL PROBLEM-SOLVING TASKS
THAN TODAY'S MACHINES
- BE ABLE TO LEARN, ASSOCIATE, AND INFER
3) KNOWLEDGE-BASED MANAGEMENT SYSTEM
- BE ABLE TO UNDERSTAND AND USE STORED INFORMATION
- "KNOWLEDGE BASES" RATHER THAN "DATABASES"
EACH OF THE THREE SYSTEMS HAS OWN SPECIALIZED MACHINE WITH VLSI
ARCHITECTURE
COMPUTER SIZES TO RANGE FROM MICRO'S TO MAINFRAMES
SOURCE: TOM MANUEL, BYTE, 5/82
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5TH GENERATION COMPUTER: EXAMPLE:PROJECTS AND SPECIFICATIONS
PERSONAL WORK STATION
- PERFORM 2 Mips
- HAVE .5 TO 5 MEGABYTES OF MEMORY
HAVE 100 MEGABYTES OF DISK STORAGE, WITH AN AVERAGE ACCESS OF
1 MILLISECOND
"SUPER HIGH-SPEED PROCESSOR"
- PERFORM 1 TO 100 BILLION FLOATING POINT OPERATIONS PER SECOND (FLOPS)
- HAVE 8 TO 160 MEGABYTES OF MEMORY
PROBLEM -- SOLVING AND INFERENCE FUNCTION
- PERFORM 100 MILLION TO 1 BILLION LOGICAL-INFERENCE OPERATIONS PER
SECOND
(1 LOGICAL INFERENCE = 100 TO 1000 INSTRUCTIONS)
- NATURAL LANGUAGE PROCESSING SYSTEM
KNOWLEDGE-BASED MANAGEMENT FUNCTION
- RETRIEVE 1 UNIT OF KNOWLEDGE IN SEVERAL SECONDS FROM A BASE OF 100
TO 1000 GIGABYTES
SOURCE: MANUEL, BYTE, 5/82
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Machine translation system
? Translations among multiple languages
? Vocabulary size: 100.000 words
? Machine to guarantee 90% accuracy. with remaining 10% to be processed
through intervention by man.
? System to be an integrated system where computers participate in individual
stages ranging from text editing to printing and of translations.
? Total costs Involved to remain at 30% or lower than for human translation.
Consultation systems
? Specimen applications
? Medical diagnosis
? Natural Language Comprehension
? Mechanical equipment corttputer-aided design
? Computer user carmltIlt"
? Computer systems dleprtosts
? Number of objects: 5.000 or more
? Inference rules: 10.000 or more
? Semi-automated knowledge scqu Ition
? Interfaces with system: Natural languages and speech
? Vocabulary size: 5.000 words or more
Figure 1. Subjects and 10-Year Targets for Basic Applications Systems
SOURCE: REX MALIK, COMPUTERWORLD/EXTRA
11/17/82, P. 25
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5TH GENERATION COMPUTER: SOME JAPANESE EXPECTATIONS
RAISING PRODUCTIVITY IN LOW-PRODUCTIVITY FIELDS
- PRESERVATION OF INTERNATIONAL COMPETITIVE CAPABILITY BY DEVELOPMENT
OF NEW TECHNOLOGY
- CONSERVATION OF ENERGY AND RESOURCES
- PROMOTE UTILIZATION OF CAPACITY OF AGING CITIZENS
- INFORMATIONALIZATION OF SOCIETY
- BENEFITS TO BE GAINED
SOURCES: SID FERNBACH, BRIEF ON THE
JAPANESE COMPUTER INDUSTRY, MAY, 1981
ZEN YAMADA, MEMORANDUM ON RECENT
PUBLISHED INFORMATION, MAY 13, 1981
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ROUTING AND TRANSMITTAL SLIP
REMARKS
Date
3 Feb. 83
TD: (Name, office symbol, room number,
building, Agency/Post)
1. C/TID
Initials
Date
2.
DD/E
9.
D/OGI
FEB
4.
31 D/ODP 2D0105 H s.
L
v
ion
File
Note and Return
pprovat
For Clearance
Per Conversation
s Requested
For Correction
Prepare Reply
ircuiate
For Your Information
See Me
omment
Investigate
Signature
Coordination
Just.
_
(NOTE:
1 - DD/Ap
1 - SPS
MS/ODP sent cys to
NOT use this form as a RECORD of approvals, concurrences, disposals,
(Name, org. symbol, Agency/Post) Room o.--Bldg.
OGI/TID
3G22 Has.
OPTIONAL FORM 41 (Rev. 7-76)
Prescrbod by GSA
FPMR (41 CFIR) 101-11.206
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SECRET ODP-'- 21,0
FEB 1983
MEMORANDUM FOR: Director, Office of Data Processing
Director of Global Issues
SUBJECT: Japanese Supercomputer Developments
REFERENCE: DCI/ICS 83-4224, dated 26 January 1983
1. At the request of your Policy and Plans Group, we are providing our
assessment of Japanese capabilities and plans for supercomputer
developments. Specifically, the attachment responds to Question G of the
reference, concerning Japanese prospects for success in developing
supercomputer systems.
2. In addition to the attachment, we are preparing a detailed
Intelligence Assessment on Japanese supercomputer systems that should be
available in draft within the next few months. In addition to providing more
detailed information on the Japanese supercomputers, the study will
investigate Japanese marketing plans and discuss the apanese
competition on US economic and strategic interests.
you have any questions or comments please cal
Chief, Technology Analysis Branch,
Attachment:
As stated
This Memorandum is classified
Upon Removal From Attachment
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