USSR AND EAST EUROPEAN FINANCIAL STATISTICS

Document Type: 
Collection: 
Document Number (FOIA) /ESDN (CREST): 
CIA-RDP85-01156R000100010004-2
Release Decision: 
RIPPUB
Original Classification: 
S
Document Page Count: 
12
Document Creation Date: 
December 21, 2016
Document Release Date: 
June 20, 2008
Sequence Number: 
4
Case Number: 
Publication Date: 
March 11, 1981
Content Type: 
MEMO
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PDF icon CIA-RDP85-01156R000100010004-2.pdf253.6 KB
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SECitFr Approved For Release 2008/06/20: CIA-RDP85-011568000100010004-2 ~. National Intelligence Council MEMORANDUM SUBJECT: USSR and East European Financial Statistics 11 March 1981 1. Attached are balance of payments, hard currency debt and credit commitment tables for the USSR and East European countries for use b the members of the Buckley mission to Euro e. 2. The balance of payments tables are estimates. The data for 1980- 81-balance of payments series for Poland and Romania correspond with data available to West European creditors. Balance of payments data for the other countries should be treated as US government estimates. 3. The hard currency debt tables for Poland, Romania and Yugoslavia were taken from country or IMF data and are available to West European officials. The debt figures for Hungary, taken from open sources, understate that country's debt position by several hundred millions of dollars compared with numbers recently provided to the IMF which may or may not be now available to West European countries. .Debt figures for the other countries are estimates updating NATO series which now only go through mid-1980. 4. Data on commitments are estimated from Berne Union data for 30 September 1981 plus CCC as well as West German official guarantees to East Germany and Canadian Wheat Board commitments reported in NATO statistics. " ' % Maurice C. Ernst Attachments, As stated All portions SECRET SECRET ~Deriv C1 By Signer Revw on 11 Mar 88 / Approved For Release 2008/06/20: CIA-RDP85-011568000100010004-2 Approved For Release 2008/06/20: CIA-RDP85-011568000100010004-2 SUBJECT: USSR and East European Financial Statistics Distribution: Norman A. Bailey, NSC Stephen Canner, Treasury Thomas Niles, State ~~o1o55R C/NIC SECRET Approved For Release 2008/06/20: CIA-RDP85-011568000100010004-2 _...____r~_,~_~ Approved For Release 2008/06/20: CIA-RDP85-011568000100010004-2 ? ROMANIA: Estimated Balance of Payments (Million US $) 1980 1981 .1982 Current Account Balance -2399 -800 -950 Trade Balance -1534 175 500 Exports 6503 7250 7500 Imports -8037 -7075 -7000 Net Invisibles -865 -975 -950 Capital Account Balance 2730 1138 Drawings on Medium- and Long-term Credits 3106 2171 Officially-backed 325 400 Private 2781 1771 Repayments of Medium- and Long-term Credits -827 -1300 Officially-backed -275 -300 Private -552 -1000 IMF Credit, Net 3 262 Credits Extended, Net -110 -50 Change in Short-term Debt 359 -84 Drawdown in assets held in 199 139 Western banks* Errors and Omissions -331 -338 * + = drawdown of~reserves (Same on other tables) - = increase in reserves -~-. ~?? -- ~~~?~ Approved For Release 2008/06/20: CIA-RDP85-011568000100010004-2 Approved For Release 2008/06/20: CIA-RDP85-011568000100010004-2 PCLANn: Estimated Balance o[ Faymentsa (t?Sillion US $) ~~80 1981 1982 Current Account Balance: -~;.ti~i~J -2300 -2600 Trade Balance -700 -900 6C0 Exports 74:0 5600 5400 Imports -x100 -6500 -4800 Net Invisibles -190C -1400 -3200 Capital Account Balance 2600 1310 Drawings on Medium- and Long-term Credits 8300 8560 Officially-backer? 5~ 57x,0 Private 300u 2810 Repayments of Medium- and Long-term Credits -5606 -6400 Officially-backed NA -2600 Private NF. -3800 Credits extended, ret -200 -350 Change in Shcrt-term -700 -1000 Debt Drawdo-vn in assets held in Western banks* Errors and.Omissions 300 500 0 990 z Based on Poli::'; auta sub;~i_,.;ions to western creditors. * + = drawdown of reser?~es = increase in reserves Approved For Release 2008/06/20: CIA-RDP85-011568000100010004-2 =-.~.~~ ? Approved For Release 2008/06/20: CIA-RDP85-011568000100010004-2 ? ? USSR: Hard Currency Balance of Payments (Billion US $) 1980 1981 1982 (Estimated) (Projected) Current account balance 1.2 -1.5 -3.5 Trade balance 0.9 -1.0 -3.0 Exports including arms 27.1 29.0 28.0 Imports 26.2 30.0 31.0 Net. invisibles 1.0 1.0 1.0 Net interest -0.7 -1.5 -1.5 Capital account 0.1 3.9 Drawings (medium & long term) 2.4 4.0 Officially-backed 2.4 2.3 Private 0.0 1.7 Repayments (medium & long term) 3.1 3.3 Official 2.0 2.0 Private 1.1 1.3 Changes in short term debt Drawdown in assets held in 0.6 1.6 Western banks 0.2 1.6 . Gold sales 1.8 2.7 Errors & omissions -3.1 -5.1 Approved For Release 2008/06/20: CIA-RDP85-011568000100010004-2 Approved For Release 2008/06/20: CIA-RDP85-011568000100010004-2 - Eastern Europe: Estimated Commitments and Disbursements of Officially-backed Credits (Million US $) Commitments* Disbursed Undisbursed USSR X3500 8500 5000 Poland 11200 10440 760 Romania 3080 2100 980 East Germany 5025 2900 2125 Hungary 700 400 300 Czechoslovakia 1350 900 450 Bulgaria. 745 475 270 * Commitments of guarantees for principal only Approved For Release 2008/06/20: CIA-RDP85-011568000100010004-2 Approved For Release 2008/06/20: CIA-RDP85-011568000100010004-2 Eastern Europe: Hard Currency Debt in 1980 - 1981* (million US dollars) Poland Romania Yugoslavia East Germany 1980 1981 1980 1981 1980 1981 1980 1981 Gross debt 24,840 26,000 9,457 10,700 16,900 18,400 13,900 14,500 Officially guaranteed 10,350 13,500 2,000 2,100 2,250 2,350 2,500 2,900 Private 14,490 12,500 6,277 7,050 12,550 13,250 11,400 11,600 0 800 2 ---- IBRD/III' 0 0 1,180 1,550 2,10 , Reserves 650 150 489 350 1,370 1,800 2,150 1,750 Net debt 24,190 25,850 8,968 10,350 15,530 16,600 11,750 12,750 *Preliminary estimates Approved For Release 2008/06/20: CIA-RDP85-011568000100010004-2 Approved For Release 2008/06/20: CIA-RDP85-011568000100010004-2 ~ ~ USSRs The Structure of tterd Currency Debt .? (Billion U3 S? .. - 1980 i_ 88.1 -- Gross eommerciel debt 10.0 12,0 s 0 Medium and long term 5.6 ' 0 6hort term 4.4 6. Assets 6.6 ?.0 Net conrnercial 1.4 5.0 Net official 8.2 8'S Net debt 9.6 15.5 Gross debt 18.2 80.5 Approved For Release 2008/06/20: CIA-RDP85-011568000100010004-2 Approved For Release 2008/06/20: CIA-RDP85-011568000100010004-2 ~ ~ BULGAF.IA: Estimated Balance of Payments (Million US $) 1980 1981 1982 Current Accoun*_ Balance 940 560 470 Trade Balance 997 616 400 Exports 3056 3092 3370 Imports -2059 -2477 -2970 Net Invisibles -57 -56 70 Capital Account Balance -630 -560 Drawings on Medium- and Long-term Credits 500 410 Officially-backed 100 140 Private 400 270 Repay;nents of Medium- and Long-term Credi}s -660 -760 Officially-backed -110 -110 Private -550 -650 Change ir. Short-term -400 -140 Debt Drawdown in assets held in -70 -70 Western banks* Errors and Omissians -310 0 Approved For Release 2008/06/20: CIA-RDP85-011568000100010004-2 Approved For Release 2008/06/20: CIA-RDP85-011568000100010004-2 ~ ~ HUNGARY: Estimated Balance of Payments (Million US $) 198C 1981 1982 Current Account Balance Trade Balance Exports Imports Net Invisibles -486 -579 -420 279 443 460 4911 4862 4960 4632 4418 4500 -765 -1022 -880 Capital Account Balance 200 500 Drawings on Medium- and Long-term Credits 1360 1600 Officially-backed 110 100 Private 1250 1500 Repayments of Medium- and Long-term Credits -600 -800 Officially-backed -80 -110 Private -520 -690 ChangF in Short-term Debt Drawdown in assets held in Western bank$* , Errors ar~d Omissions * + = drawdown in reserves - = increase in reserves -400 -700 -160 400 286 79 ~~'- ~, : Approved For Release 2008/06/20: CIA-RDP85-011568000100010004-2 Approved For Release 2008/06/20: CIA-RDP85-011568000100010004-2 CZECHOSLOVAKIA: Estimated Balance of Payments (Million US $) Current Account Balance -393 -155 70 Trade Balance 7 375 530 Exports 4597 4827 5070 Imports -4590 -4452 -4540 Net Invisibles -400 -530 -460 Capital Account Balance 395 105 Drawings on Medium- and Long-term Credits 1020 455 Officially-backed 250 265 Private 770 190 Repayments of Medium-- and Long-term Credits -375 -550 Officially-backed -165 -190 Private -210 -360 Change in Short-term Debt 0 -150 Drawdown in assets held in _2 50 350 Western banks* Errors and Omissions -2 55 * + = drawdown of reserves - = increase in reserves Approved For Release 2008/06/20: CIA-RDP85-011568000100010004-2 Approved For Release 2008/06/20: CIA-RDP85-011568000100010004-2 ? ? East Germany: Estimated Balance of Payments (Million US $) 1980 1981 1982 Current Account Balance -1919 -1866 -1490 Trade Balance -1909 -1391 -1240 Exports 5185 5703 6000 Imports -7094 -7094 -7240 Net Invisibles -10 -475 -250 Capital Account Balance 2005 1200 Drawings on Medium- a nd Long-term Credits 3890 3220 Officially-backed 740 800 Private 3150 2400 Re a payments of Medium- nd Long-term Credits -2100 -2400 Officially-backed -350 -400 Private -1750 -2000 Ch ange in Short-term debt 400 0 Drawdown in assets held in Western bank5* - = increase in reserves _ .~-::. ~::.:...~ Approved For Release 2008/06/20: CIA-RDP85-011568000100010004-2 -;~.-