LDC DEBT/TRADE IMPLICATIONS/POLICY RESPONSES

• Document Type: CREST
• Collection: General CIA Records
• Document Number (FOIA) /ESDN (CREST): CIA-RDP85-01156R000200270006-1
• Release Decision: RIPPUB
• Original Classification: K
• Document Page Count: 1
• Document Creation Date: December 21, 2016
• Document Release Date: October 24, 2008
• Sequence Number: 6
• Content Type: REPORT

Approved For Release 2008/10/24: CIA-RDP85-01156R000200270006-1
LDC DE ./TRADE IMPLICATIONS/POLIC. RESPONSES
ILLEGIB 7.1
Analysis of Trade Implications
CEA analysis of general effects on U.S. trade/GNP of LDC debt.
- Analysis of U.S. trade flows with individual countries, by sector.
Trade Policy Problems
LDCs will be changing their net trade position to adjust to
debt problems, and will be introducing specific measures
to encourage exports.
- Possibility of increased protectionism in the U.S. and
other OECD countries in response to LDC trade measures.
-- LDCs adjustment may involve moving further away from GATT rules;
would represent setback to GATT attempts to encourage trade
liberalization in those countries.
-- Adjustment through increased exports will adversely affect
U.S. industries, in particular import-competing industries.
They can be expected to fj1le antidumping, countervailing
duty, escape clause and 301 cases in increasing number.
Policy Proposals to be Analyzed
-- U.S. should propose at OECD Ministerial that the OECD countries
commit publicly not to close their markets to LDC exports.
-- USG should announce domestically its intention to resist
protectionist pressures, while at the same time continuing to
implement U.S. trade laws fairly and equitably.
U.S. should decide whether to accord LDCs special treatment
in the development of our trade policy; e.g., in GSP renewal.
To encourage LDCs to avoid highly distortive trade practices,
U.S. should encourage IMF to give more attention to trade
practices in its lending programs and its Article IV consultations.
USG should provide U.S. Executive Director more systematic
and comprehensive comments on trade policy of countries
consulting or negotiating. with IMF.
-- U.S. should warn IMF and others that certain LDC trade practices
are particularly likely to generate U.S. unfair trade cases.
-- U.S. should push LDCs to take more seriously their commitment
to consult with GATT members when they apply trade restrictions
for balance of payments reasons. U.S. should examine
these practices more closely during BOP consultations.
-- U.S. should encourage enhanced GATT/IMF cooperation, keeping
cooperation at informal level for time being.
-- U.S. should consider longer-term measures to keep markets
open, such as a North-South round of trade negotiations,
multilateral liberalization of investment practices.
Approved For Release 2008/10/24: CIA-RDP85-01156R000200270006-1