SOVIET PROCUREMENT/RUBLE COSTING PAPER

• Document Type: CREST
• Collection: General CIA Records
• Document Number (FOIA) /ESDN (CREST): CIA-RDP85B00652R000100060020-7
• Release Decision: RIPPUB
• Original Classification: S
• Document Page Count: 2
• Document Creation Date: December 21, 2016
• Document Release Date: June 3, 2008
• Sequence Number: 20
• Publication Date: June 24, 1983
• Content Type: MEMO

Approved For Release 2008/06/03: CIA-RDP85B00652R000100060020-7
NOTE TO: Director of Central Intelligence
Deputy Director of Central Intelligence
FROM: Deputy Director for Intelligence
JECT: Soviet Procurement/Ruble Costing Paper
, G-A
1. This immense stack of paper brings to you for weekend
reading SOVA's draft ruble costing and procurement paper. It is
a very important paper and one that merits some time on your and
John's part.
2. Finally, I have attached the key judgments of several
recent papers that we recently have published or that I have
approved for publication on the Soviet economy.
Together they represent a massive research investment by CIA and
the overall body of their conclusions has great importance for
this country for at least the remainder of this decade. They,
provide a good deal of the supporting detail that stands behind
the assessments of economic problems confronting the Soviet Union
and that we believe affect military procurement. Several of the
papers also document the difficulties the Soviets are haying in
the mass production of more technologically sophisticated
military equipment and how this has slowed their production
rate. This is a lot of reading but I think you will find it
interesting and, as I said, it is important.
SF('RET
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3. I have had SOVA hold. this paper for several months
awaiting the outcome of the Selin Panel report and SOVA's work
with DIA. The results of these two efforts have allowed them to
make a number of improvements to the draft. At this point, after
you have satisfied yourself, I would like to publish as soon as
we can. Both we and DIA think the two agencies' papers should be
published separately. DIA's methodology is discussed in the SOVA
r -
? - . - . c?.a:c LO.L it' z paper.
4. As you know this is the paper over which I have had the
greatest doubts for the last two years. Nonetheless, between the
conclusions of the Selin Panel and my own reading of the paper, I
find it to be a highly professional effort -- and, I might add, a
persuasive one to me. I also am swayed in its direction
substantively (1) by the massive work SOVA has done in other
areas of the economy with conclusions that are consistent with
and support what this paper says, and (2) by the endorsements of
SOVA's work on the Soviet economy generally and their work on
defense costing specifically by the Selin Panel and apparently by
the Commerce/PFIAB Panel (the two most far-reaching,
comprehensive external evaluations of our analysis in many
vears)_
Robert M. Gates
(By the way, in terms of the underlying premise that procurement
has declined, did you see the Post story on Jim Williams' secret
testimony that was released Wednesday? The article is on the
next page.)
DDI/RMGates/de,_'24Jun83
DISTRIBUTION:
1 - DCI
1 - DDCI
1 - EXReg
1 - DDI Chrono
1 - DDI Reg., wo/atts.
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