LETTER (SANITIZED) FROM ROBERT M. GATES

• Document Type: CREST
• Collection: General CIA Records
• Document Number (FOIA) /ESDN (CREST): CIA-RDP85B00652R000100060064-9
• Release Decision: RIPPUB
• Original Classification: K
• Document Page Count: 8
• Document Creation Date: December 21, 2016
• Document Release Date: February 2, 2009
• Sequence Number: 64
• Publication Date: June 8, 1983
• Content Type: LETTER

Approved For Release 2009/02/02 : CIA-RDP85B00652R000100060064-9
Directorate of Intelligence
Office of African and Latin American Analysis
8 JUN 1983
NOTE FOR: Deputy Director for Intelligence
Bob,
Attached, per your recent request, are our
comments on a paper on The Military
Consequences of Military Rule in Sub-Saharan
Aca"
d
f
oun
We
useful paper that puts together in a
comprehensive way several aspects of military
rule in Africa. It will serve as a convenient
reference work for our analysts.
DIA review
completed.
Approved For Release 2009/02/02 : CIA-RDP85B00652R000100060064-9
 Approved For Release 2009/02/02 : CIA-RDP85B00652R000100060064-9 '
Central Intelligence Agency
Major General Walter R. Longanecker, Jr.
Special Assistant for Education and Training
Directorate for Attaches and Training
Defense Intelligence Agency
Washington, D.C. 20301
Dear Maj. Gen. Longanecker:
Thank you for forwarding a monograph on "The Military Consequences
of Military Rule in Sub-Saharan Africa" produced in connection with your
Defense Academic Research Support Program. Our analysts found this to
be well-reasoned, comprehensive, and effectively organized. We believe
it made especially good use of the corpus of writing on the military in
Africa--a favorite subject of academia 'and other observers of Africa. In
addition, we believe the paper accurately reflects growing evidence that
military governments are not immune--as was once thought--to the political
and economic pressures that undermine the stability of civilian governments.
Our analysts found a number of points to be thought provoking.
.Especially interesting were the judgments that the acquisition of additional
weapons by military regimes is usually a poor second on the priority list
to improving the standard of living of officers and troops, and that a
high level of regional tensions is a much more useful indicator of arms
acquisition than the type of regime. Without contesting the basic judgments,
we believe the paper deemphasizes too much the inclination of military
regimes to acquire new weapons. In addition, we would posit that a
government's economic position and a country's economic health are equal to
regional tensions as factors that influence a military regime to acquire new
weapons.
In your discussion of different types of conditions of military rule,
we found especially interesting the section on junior officer/NCO controlled
governments. We believe these types of coups are likely to become more
numerous in the years to come. As the world recession has accelerated
deteriorating economic conditions in the resource poor and nearly bankrupt
countries of Sub-Saharan Africa, many governments have had to curb develop-
ment plans and impose politically difficult austerity measures. As a
Approved For Release 2009/02/02 : CIA-RDP85B00652R000100060064-9
 Approved For Release 2009/02/02 : CIA-RDP85B00652R000100060064-9
result, there has been a further erosion of support for already weak
governments, and demands for radical change are gaining ground among the
lower level military ranks and other elements of society that see themselves
as have nots.
In sum, we found this a useful. paper and come essentially to the same
conclusion: military governments are not necessarily better equipped or
more able than civilian governments to resolve the political, economic,
and social problems that plague most African countries. Moreover, the
longer the military tries to cling to power in the absence of clear goals
or means to achieve its goals, the more vulnerable it becomes to debilitating
internal cleavages that argue for a transfer of power to civilians lest the
army collapse into indiscipline.
Robert M. Gates
Deputy Director for Intelligence
STAT
Approved For Release 2009/02/02 : CIA-RDP85B00652R000100060064-9
 Approved For Release 2009/02/02 : CIA-RDP85B00652R000100060064-9
SUBJECT: Letter to Major General Walter R. Longanecker, Jr.
Original -- Addressee
1 -- DDI
1 -- ADDI
1 -- DDI Registry
D/ALA
ALA/WE
ALA/SC
ALA/WEI I(8 June 1983)
STAT
Approved For Release 2009/02/02 : CIA-RDP85B00652R000100060064-9
 Approved For Release 2009/02/02 : CIA-RDP85B00652R000100060064-9
Approved For Release 2009/02/02 : CIA-RDP85B00652R000100060064-9
 .....Approved For Release 2009/02/02 : CIA-RDP85B00652R000100060064-9
Central Intelligence Agency
Office of the Deputy Director for Intelligence
,.,AY.
lLea
C
t ~ -[tea C~-~-~--?~e
...................
..........................
.............................. ...............................................................
. .. .
...... .:::::::::::
...............................................
...................._......... :
STAT
......................................................... ........................................................................................................................
...................................................................................................................................................................................
STAT
.............................
STAT
........................................................ .
................................................
.. .........................................
...................................................
....................................... ...............................
..........................................................................................
................................................................................................
.............................. ....... ...... .......................
.......................................
Approved For Release 2009/02/02 : CIA-RDP85B00652R000100060064-9
 Approved For Release 2009/02/02 : CIA-RDP85B00652R000100060064-9 ' (''-')
DEFENSE INTELLIGENCE AGENCY
WASHINGTON. D.C. 20301
U-560/AT-SA 29 APR 1983
MEMORANDUM FOR (DISTRIBUTION LIST)
SUBJECT: Defense Academic Research Support Program (DARSP)
1. In February 1982 DIA announced the inauguration of the Defense Academic
Research Support Program (DARSP) to obtain unclassified, publishable re-
search studies on key socio-political factors affecting the stability of
the Third World. Devised to support analysis within the General Defense
Intelligence Program (GDIP) community, one of the principal objectives
of this program is an expanded relationship between GDIP analysts and
academic area specialists and experts. Our initial research emphasis
was on Sub-Saharan Africa.
2. On 8 February 1983 we forwarded to you a monograph on "Factors
Affecting the Role and Employment of Peacekeeping Forces in Africa South
of the Sahara," the first research study completed under the DARSP. We
enclose a second monograph on "The Military Consequences of Military Rule
in Sub-Saharan Africa." We encourage your careful review and appraisal
of these studies, not only for their information, interpretations and
assessments, bu-t for their value as vehicles to stimulate working analyst-
scholar relationships. If analysts find it desirable, contacts may be
arranged with the authors of the studies, via W. R. Longanecker, Jr.,
Special Assistant for Education and Training, Directorate for Attaches and
Training (AT-SA) (694-4489 or AV 224-1385/2033).
3. Other reports will follow, and we ask that they be accorded equal con-
sideration so that we can properly evaluate the DARSP and plan its future.
4. We appreciate the comments so far received on the first monograph, and
request by 31 May 1983 the comments from those addressees who have not yet
supplied them. Additionally, we request your comments on the second mono
graph not later than 15 June 1983. The comments need not be lengthy.
Please address them to Mr. Longanecker.
1- Enclosure a/s
DISTRIBUTION LIST:
See page 2
Approved For Release 2009/02/02 : CIA-RDP85B00652R000100060064-9
 Approved For Release 2009/02/02 : CIA-RDP85B00652R000100060064-9
Approved For Release 2009/02/02 : CIA-RDP85B00652R000100060064-9