DISTRIBUTION OF FOCUS ON HUNGARY

• Document Type: CREST
• Collection: General CIA Records
• Document Number (FOIA) /ESDN (CREST): CIA-RDP85M00158R000300020040-5
• Release Decision: RIPPUB
• Original Classification: S
• Document Page Count: 7
• Document Creation Date: December 22, 2016
• Document Release Date: December 16, 2009
• Sequence Number: 40
• Publication Date: October 20, 1982
• Content Type: MEMO

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DIRECTOR OF CENTRAL INTELLIGENCE
Human Resources Committee
MEMORANDUM FOR: See Distribution List
Lxecutive ecre ary
SUBJECT: Distribution of FOCUS on Hungary
~0
HRC 82-175
20 October 1932
Attached is the final version of the FOCUS Report on reporting from our
Embassy in Hungary, which was approved by the DDCI and sent to the Department
of State in October 1982.
Attachment:
As stated
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1 October 1982
MEMORANDUM FOR: W. J. Lehmann
Chairman, Human Resources Committee
Assistant National Intelligence Officer
for USSR/Eastern Europe
SUBJECT: FOCUS Review for Hungary
1. Introduction
A FOCUS seminar on reporting from Hungary, attended by policy
officials and analysts from the Foreign Affairs Community who deal with
Hungary, was held under my chairmanship on 9 September. There were over
25 participants, including representatives from State, CIA, DIA, NSA,
and Commerce. The following report sums up the views of the Community
that were expressed orally at the meeting or in informal written evaluations
submitted for it. The consensus of the participants was that on an overall
level reporting from Embassy Budapest has been very good; however, they drew
attention to a few areas in which more reporting is desirable.
2. Foreign Affairs
The informal memorandum provided by the Department of State for the
seminar characterized foreign policy reporting from Budapest as "timely and
comprehensive, reflecting a good deal of spot reporting and in-depth analysis."
The State memorandum specified that, "The Embassy's reporting on Kadar's visit
to the FRG (2165), the Mitterand visit to Hungary (3964, 4052), as well as on
official Hungarian (and Soviet) reaction to both the Marjai visit to the US
and Hungary's entry into the IMF, are illustrative of the Embassy's adroitness
in spot reporting and follow-up analysis." The State memorandum also called
attention to "the Embassy's excellent five-part series of reports on 'Kadar's
Hungary' (3143, 3161, 4097, 4227, and 4609)." Participants at the seminar
generally concurred with this State evaluation and joined in praise of the
five reports on "Kadar's Hungary." (The latter were also commended during
the seminar's subsequent discussion on reporting on domestic political affairs.)
CL BY Signer
DECL OADR
DERIVED FROM MULTIPLE
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For future reference the participants agreed that while reporting
on the relationships of the Hungarian Catholic Church with the Government
and with dissidents inside the Church has been sufficient, more follow-up
reporting is wanted on relations between the Hungarian Catholic Church and
the Vatican. Participants also indicated that we do not know enough about
the relationship between Hungary and the Soviet Union, the influence each has
on the other, and the direction in which the relationship is moving. To the
degree feasible, more basic type reporting on this topic would be welcome.
3. Domestic Political Affairs
The informal CIA memorandum commenting on domestic political reporting
characterized it as good. "Spot reports are usually thorough, offering background
and useful comments." The CIA memorandum noted that "Embassy reporting on
socio-political issues has been valuable, including coverage of church-state
relations and the pacifist movement within the Catholic Church (Budapest 3481,
3346, and 1606), as well as problems of youth and cultural affairs (Budapest
0989 and 6751)."
For future reporting, the memorandum recommended "more comprehensive
overviews of the popular mood and living conditions in the cities and in rural
areas," and more information on dissident activities. While Embassy analysis
of recent leadership changes has been thoughtful, the memorandum noted "we
would appreciate more reporting on party dynamics, political maneuvering, and
any evidence of debate or factionalism within the leadership, although we
recognize the difficulties in gathering detailed information. Most consumer
requests focus on these issues."
The participants at the seminar, while joining in the praise of
recent Embassy reporting, also endorsed the foregoing requests. Participants
from State suggested a possible follow-on to the five-part series on Kadarism,
drawing if possible on expanded contacts within the party hierarchy as well as
on the opinions of "the man in the street." Participants from State also
specified that more reporting would be appreciated on the nexus between
political dissidents and main-line intellectuals such as the writers and
poets who have been supporting the political activists. Questions were
raised such as, what separates these groups attitudinally, and what are
their links outside Hungary? Finally, some participants expressed a desire
for faster reporting from the Mission if possible on key issues, particularly
those with implications for US interests.
4. Economic
The informal CIA memorandum on economic reporting contained the
following comments:
"The US Embassy in Hungary has done a good job of covering Hungarian
economic problems over the past year; its reporting on financial issues
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has been particularly first-rate. While Embassy reporting has emphasized
Budapest's financial problems--and quite properly in our estimation--there
has been good coverage of the impact of these difficulties on domestic
economic policies. Budapest 2534, Budapest 2665, and Budapest 0210, for
example, provided useful information on the debate over the pace and scope
of reform and Budapest 3161 supplied a well-balanced, in-depth analysis of
its current status. Budapest 4005 provided the first public confirmation
of the decision to reduce living standards.
"Spot reports on financial developments have usually proved accurate
and have given the first signs of new trends. The Embassy was the first
to alert us to Hungary's worsening liquidity problems in early 1982
(Budapest 0872 and Budapest 1752), the development of an austerity strategy
by the National Bank for coping with debt problems (Budapest 2135), and the
Bank's efforts to gain approval of its program from the leadership
(Budapest 3803). The Embassy has also been quick to report new statistics
given to the IMF and Western bankers (Budapest 1030 and Budapest 3561)
. . . The Embassy's interpretive reports have provided useful assessment
of Hungary's financial position and prospects. The analysis has generally
been quite sophisticated and well-supported by facts. The high quality
of reporting on Hungary's finances reflects the Embassy's good access to
senior Hungarian bankers and Deputy Premier Marjai."
During the discussion at the seminar, State concurred with these comments
and expressed the consensus of the participants that the memorandum deservedly
praised the Embassy's reporting on recent financial developments and on the
debate over economic reforms. For future reporting, CIA and other participants
at the seminar expressed the hope that the Embassy could extend its scope of
sources and contacts to more economic policymakers within the government and
the party.* As the CIA memorandum put it, "Although we recognize that access
to these policymakers is often more difficult than to the bankers, we could
use more reporting on debates within the leadership to impose more austerity."
The participants also expressed interest in additional reporting on Hungary's
economic and trade relations with the Soviet Union and the Soviet Bloc.
Subsequent to the assessment State noted that the role of the economic
ministries has declined recently as economic influence has shifted to the
National Bank.
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5. Military and Security
The memorandum by DIA commenting on reporting on the Hungarian armed
forces stated, "We have received some highly useful reporting on exercises in
which the evaluation by various attaches of NATO countries have given us a more
meaningful picture of the role of the Hungarian military in the Warsaw Pact
posture. . . Data received on troop rotation has been very valuable." The
memorandum encouraged continuing reporting on these topics. It continued,
"We have received useful and timely information on transportation issues.
Particularly useful were reports such as IR 684300-82-82 and 684300-84-82...The
reporting has been responsive not only to standing requirements but also to
special requests."
The DIA memorandum also noted, "reports on command and control have
met the needs of DIA. In this respect, noteworthy was the reporting on the
DRUZHBA-82 exercise. The follow-on photography, information on special
equipment, and the coordinated judgments of various attaches on the nature of
the exercise were greatly appreciated. Especially of value in the reporting on
exercises has been the focus on communications set up and train activity."
For requested future reporting, the DIA memorandum also specified
"information that can give us further insight into the modernization program
of the Hungarian armed forces, reports on the growing offense orientation of
the Hungarian Air Force, military personalities and changes in personnel,
newspaper articles that deal with Hungarian military personalities and other
military affairs, new road construction particularly in strategic areas such
as border areas and bypasses around cities, and identification of key
locations of critical areas and intelligence facilities in the Budapest area
as well as throughout the country."
The participants generally agreed with the foregoing evaluation. For
the future the participants would like the US Mission to stress in its military
reporting the kind of information that can only be acquired in Hungary.
Specifically, participants would like more reporting on the morale, discipline,
and political indoctrination of Hungarian armed forces, both officers and
enlisted men.
Participants also stressed the particular importance of the reliability
question, i.e., what the Soviet commanders can get the Hungarian armed forces to
do, or believe they can get the Hungarians to do, in various scenarios such as
a move into Poland or general hostilities in the area. Such reporting should
highlight the Soviet control mechanism, i.e., how they do it. It should also
cover Hungarian relations with Soviet commanders and military representatives
such as the Soviet defense attache officers and Soviet Warsaw Pact representa-
tives.
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State, noting reports of severe sentences for conscientious objectors,
recommended reporting on Hungarian attitudes regarding pacifism and on draft
evasion or draft resistance. State also recommended reporting on civil defense
preparations, particularly organization and underground construction on the
basis of personal observations.
6. Memoranda of Conversation
Both in the informal evaluation memoranda and during the seminar,
participants expressed particular concern over the adequacy of distribution
in Washington of memoranda of conversation sent in by the Embassy. It was
recommended that measures be taken to ensure the distribution of
non-telegraphic memoranda of conversation to appropriate consumers in CIA
and DIA. Participants felt that primary responsibility for adopting procedures
to ensure proper distribution is a responsibility of the Department of State
and the Mission. Participants recommended that Embassy Budapest specify CIA
and DIA as addressees on appropriate memcons.
7. Biographic Reporting
Biographic reporting from the Embassy has been timely and responsive
to requirements. The Embassy was particularly helpful in providing assessment
and biographic data for a research paper on Hungarian Economic Decisionmakers,
and also made a great contribution to the Potential Leader Biographic Reporting
List. In addition to providing a steady stream of memoranda containing bio
data and assessments, Embassy officers have been very conscientious in
annotating biographic reports from Washington.
8. Open Source
An informal evaluation paper from the managers of the Foreign
Publications Procurement Program reported that the Embassy's response to both
standing requirements and special requests for publications has been excellent,
citing many examples. No delinquencies on requests were noted.
Colonel, USAF
Attachment:
Priority National Intelligence Needs
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