DCI RESPONSE TO NUCLEAR WEAPONS MASTER PLAN, PHASE II INTELLIGENCE STUDY

• Document Type: CREST
• Collection: General CIA Records
• Document Number (FOIA) /ESDN (CREST): CIA-RDP85M00158R000300090022-8
• Release Decision: RIPPUB
• Original Classification: T
• Document Page Count: 5
• Document Creation Date: December 22, 2016
• Document Release Date: January 27, 2010
• Sequence Number: 22
• Publication Date: August 8, 1983
• Content Type: MEMO

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8 August 1983
MEMORANDUM FOR: Chairman, SIGINT Committee
Chairman, COMIREX
Chairman, HUMINT Committee
Chairman, Information Handling Committee
FROM: Director, Planning and Policy Staff
SUBJECT: DCI Response to Nuclear Weapons Master Plan, Phase II
Intelligence Study
1. As you are aware, PPS has served as the focal point for the ICS for
activities associated with DoD's Nuclear Weapons Master Plan (NWMP) since the
inception of that project. Our principal role has been to ensure, to the
extent possible, that the program presents a balanced view of Soviet warfight-
ing capabilities and philosophy; that the resulting recommendations enhance
rather than impact negatively on peacetime intelligence collection, processing
and dissemination activities; that the appropriate and responsible Intelli-
gence Community Program Managers have the opportunity to assess and input to
the study effort; and, that the DCI's responsibilities and authority in both
peacetime and wartime be adequately represented. u
2. We now must prepare the DDCI's response to DoD on the attached NWMP
Phase II study. The size and content of the study dictate that these comments
be provided in two phases. Accordingly, we believe we should provide an
interim reply by 1 September and a detailed response by mid-January. We need
your help in each instance and have outlined below our perception of what is
required to provide a credible response.
3. Interim Response. This should have a positive tone while at the same
time detailing those broad aspects of the program that could prove troublesome
to the overall US intelligence effort or that appear to require further study
bef ore any investment actions are initiated. It should specifically reserve
any commitment to a mix option until certain basic Intelligence Community
studies have been completed. We are soliciting comments from the NFIP
agencies that participated in, or are affected by, the NWMP-II Intelligence
Working Group (IWG) efforts for inclusion in this response. In order to
present a coordinated ICS/Program Manager interim response, we will need
formal DCI committee comments. These could probably be generated through a
joint COMIREX/SIGINT/HUMINT Committee Chairman valuation of the NWMP-II
intelligence study (as opposed to the Forces, C and Logistics studies) to
determine:
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how realistic the study is
the degree of bias it contains, if any
the validity of the methodology used to derive the mix options
the validity of the resultant mixes
the value/utility of the recommended mixes
your position regarding: Recommendation 3 (System Concepts and
Technology); Recommendation 4 (Follow-on Studies/New Initiatives);
and the 18 studies contained in Section 7.2.3 of the IWG report.
as agreed to chair a meeting for this purpose on
e nes ay, ugus at 1000 hours in his office ,and asks that you be pre-
pared to discuss these issues at that time.
4. In addition to co~ments on the IWG study, the interim reply should
also address the Forces, C and Logistics Working Groups' stud~es insof ar as
they impact on intelligence. The principal item here is the C Working Group,
and its report on Command, Control and Communications. We would like the
Information Handling Committee to provide an assessment of survivable communi-
cations in sup ort of intelligence operations, as detailed in the C Working
Group report.
5. Detailed Report. This should present the results of in-depth studies
by the National Intelligence Council (NIC), the SIGINT Committee, and the
COMIREX. We plan to ask the NIC to assess the operational utility of intelli-
gence derived from the sensors specified in the recommended and alternative
mixes across the spectrum of conflict (peace, crisis, theater conventional
war, theater nuclear war, general nuclear war, and back to peace), using the
NWMP-II scenario and requirements as a basis for evaluation. The recommended
mix and alternative mixes should be assessed also from a tasking, collection,
processing and dissemination perspective to evaluate the utility and feasibil-
ity of the various components in satisfying the intelligence requirements
developed for NWMP-II. We would like the SIGINT Committee to assess the
ability of the SIGINT components of the various mixes to satisfy the require-
ments, and to determine whether a different mix of assets would prove more
effective under the basic assumptions established for NWMP-II. Similarly, we
would like the COMIREX to evaluate the utility of the recommended mix (Recom-
mendation 1) to satisfy the stated requirements without the benefit of
imagery, assess the incremental improvements embodied in the alternative
recommendations, and recommend an imagery package that would satisfy minimum
intelligence requirements under wartime conditions. These studies should be
completed by 30 December 1983, in order to meet the mid-January 1984 deadline
noted above.
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Subject: DCI Response to Nuclear Weapons Master Plan, Phase II
Intelligence Study
Distribution:
Copy 1 - Chairman/SIGINT
Copy 2 - Chairman/COMIREX
Copy 3 - Chairman/HUrIINT
Copy 4 - Chairman/Information Handling Committee
Copy 5 - Director/PBS
Copy 6 - Director/PPS
Copy 7 - PPS Subject
Copy 8 - PPS Chrono
Copy 9 - ICS Registry
Copy 10- D/ICS
Copy 11- DD/ICS
ICS/PPS 8 August 1983 "DCIrespns" #5 25X1
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