STATUS OF NIE 11-12-83: SUGGESTED TALKING POINTS FOR 9 MARCH STAP MEETING

• Document Type: CREST
• Collection: General CIA Records
• Document Number (FOIA) /ESDN (CREST): CIA-RDP85M00363R000200390001-1
• Release Decision: RIPPUB
• Original Classification: S
• Document Page Count: 6
• Document Creation Date: December 20, 2016
• Document Release Date: October 1, 2007
• Sequence Number: 1
• Publication Date: March 8, 1983
• Content Type: MEMO

Approved For Release 2007/10/01 CIA-RDP85M00363R000200390001-1
STAP Quarterly Meeting
Please return to:
SA/DCI/IA
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SECRET
MEETING WITH SCIENCE AND TECHNOLOGY ADVISORY PANEL
9 March 1983
Contents
1. Agenda Tab A
2. Talking Points: General Tab B
3. Talking Points: NIE 11-12 Tab C
4. Membership List Tab D
SECRET
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 CO1NFTnFNTIAI
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National Intelligence Council
SP - 25/83
8 March 1983
Copy 9
MEMORANDUM FOR: Director of Central Intelligence
Deputy Director of Central Intelligence
THROUGH: Chairman, National Intelligence Councilft7
FROM: National Intelligence Officer for Strategic Programs
SUBJECT: Status of NIE 11-12-83: Suggested Talking Points
for 9 March STAP Meeting
1. The sections of the Estimate dealing with the Soviet weapons
acquisition process and their R&D resources have undergone preliminary
interagency coordination. I understand that they are in pretty good shape.
You may be interested in the judgment that deployed weapons of the 1990s will
be based primarily upon technolo levels and Politburo weapons decisions from
the 1975-1985 period. 25X1
2. The draft of the portion of the Estimate which assesses the status of
the key Soviet military technologies and compares this to US technology has
recently been completed. This is being circulated to the agencies for review
now. I understand that the section has come a long way but there are still a
number of problem areas. Some of these are due to lack of information; others
to lack of analysis. Among them are the absence of defined methods for
measuring the status of all these technologies, lack of some inputs on US
level of technology, and reluctance of some community analysts to make these
comparisons. We still have much to do in measuring the impact of technology
transfer.
3. In order to try to do a better job of comparing both status and rate
of change on at least a few technologies, we are convening a series of one-day
sessions, to which some of you have been invited, to look in detail at our
current comparisons, what additional we might say, and to identify real gaps
in our knowledge or analytical resources. Both Intelligence Community and DoD
technical experts will participate. 25X1
CONFIDENTIAL
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SP - 25/83
SUBJECT: Status of NIE 11-12-83: Suggested Talking Points
for 9 March STAP Meeting
4. The draft of that portion of the Estimate which projects Soviet
military systems of the 1990s is complete and has been disseminated for
interagency coordination. Some 128 systems are projected in the draft. We
still have some work to do in relating the improved performance expected of
these systems to the level of technology incorporated in them.
5. These various parts of the Estimate are more or less completed. They
may still have their faults, but are good and are improving. What remains is
to pull all these sections together into an integrated summary which truly
relates the Soviet R&D process, their resources, and available technology to
their fielded military systems of the 90s. This is currently being drafted
along with some preliminary key judgments.
Lawrence K. Gershwin
CONFIDENTIAL
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-3-
SP - 25/83
SUBJECT: Status of NIE 11-12-83: Suggested Talking Points
for 9 March STAP Meeting
Distribution:
Cy 1 - DC I
2 - DDCI
3 - ExDir
4 - SA/DCI/IA
5 - ER
6 - Chm/NIC
7 - VChm/NIC
8 - NIO/SP
9 - DDI Registry
NIO/SI1
I
(8Mar83)
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SECRET
MEMORANDUM FOR: Director of Central Intelligence
FROM: SA/DCI/IA
SUBJECT: Meeting with Science and Technology Advisory
Panel, 9 March 1983
1. The following papers are provided for your meeting with
STAP tomorrow at 1500.
- Agenda. STAP met today at NSA and will meet
tomorrow
They have a airy u and varied agenda.
- Talking Points. OSWR prepared talking points which
I believe are fairly superficial. They make passing
reference to key items on the agenda but contain
little substantive input. I suggest that you provide
STAP with your views as to what they might do that
would be most useful to yous'and the community in
general.
- Soviet Military Technology and R&D. A/NIO/SP
prepared talking on NIE 11-12. This Estimate
is the one most highly related to STAP's concerns
and many of them are well informed on portions of
the Estimate.
- Membership List. I have included for your informa-
tion the current list of members of STAP.
2. Please let me know if there is anything else I can do
for you for this meeting.
CL BY Signer
DECL OADR
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