A NSAS CAPABILITIES EVALUATION DOCUMENT

• Document Type: CREST
• Collection: General CIA Records
• Document Number (FOIA) /ESDN (CREST): CIA-RDP85M00363R000400960023-2
• Release Decision: RIFPUB
• Original Classification: K
• Document Page Count: 34
• Document Creation Date: December 21, 2016
• Document Release Date: July 7, 2008
• Sequence Number: 23
• Publication Date: June 24, 1983
• Content Type: REPORT

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A NASA CAPABILITIES EVALUATION DOCUA~ENT
June 24, 1983
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~
SIG DOC'lTg1JT
Table of Contents
Page
.1.0
2.0
D~TI7mDULTICIN
ME~10O010GY
1-1
2-1
2.1
Mission Model
2-1
2.1.1
2.1.2
Mission Model Develognent
Mission Categories
2.1.2.1 Astrophysics
2.1.2.2 F,arth Science And
Applications
2.1.2.3 Solar S~~stem Exploration
2.1.2.4 Life Sciences
2.1.2.5 Corm~anication Satellites
2.1.2.6 r:aterials Processing
2.1.2.7 Satellite Servicing
2.1.2.8 ?echnolog}? Develor-~.rnent
2-1
2-2
2-2
2-2
2-2
2-2
2-2
2-2
2-2
2-2
-~
2.2
Cost EstiJrating 2-3
2.2.1 DDT&E Costs 2-3
~ 3.0
SCC~ZARIOS 3-1
3.1
Scenario I _ _ _,_ 3-3
3.1.1 Description
3-3
3.1.2 Capabilities
3-3
3.1.3 Oust
3-4
3.2
Scenario Ia 3-5
3.2.1
Description
3-5
3.2.2
Capabilities
3-5
3.2.3
Oust
3-5
3.3
Soe~ario II 3-6
3.3.1
Description
3-6
3.3.2
Capabilities
3-6
3.3.3
Oust
3-7
3.4
Scenario Iia 3-8
3.4.1
Descriptiaez
3-8
3.4.2
Capabilities
3-8
~`
3.4.3
Oast
3-8
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3.5
Scenario Iib
3-9
1
5
3
Description
3-9
.
.
2
5
3
Capabilities
3-9
.
.
3.5.3
_
Oust _
3-9
3.6
Scenario Ilia
3-10
6.1
3
Description
3-10
.
2
6
3
Capabilities
3-10
.
.
3-11
3.6.3
Oast
3.7
Scenario IIIb
3-12
1
7
3
Description
3-12
.
.
2
7
3
Capabilities
3-12
.
.
3-12
3.7.3
Oast
3.6
Scenario IIIc
3-13
3-13
8
1
3
Description
.
.
3
2
8
Capabilities
3-13
,
,
3-14
3.8.3
Cost
3.9
Scenario N
3-15
1
9
3
Description
3-15
.
.
2
9
3
Capabilities
3-15
.
.
3-15
3.9.3
Cost
ApPD~IX B: CAPABILITIES OF StJPPORI'1NG E1~Tg1~TI'S B-1
4.0 SiI~R~RY
APPEt~IDIX A:. MISSION r~EL
ii
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~~
This docunw~t has been prepared by TV~SA to provide a set of scenarios that
boqux9 the options available to fulfill the nations civil space goals for the
time period 1991-2000. The doc-mient is a result of one year of developing
mission requirements, two months of evaluating architectural options to
fulfill those mission requirarp~ts, and one month of developing the cost data
for a Space Station concept and its operations.
4his assessment process required a set of missions which represent the civil
space requirements, a group of scenarios of capabilities to fulfill those
options, and the develogr~ental cost of each of the scenarios.
The approach used is to increase capabilities incrementally from one scenario
to the next. The scenarios begin with the "baseline" of today's STS capabil-
ity augrrr~ted by a Teleoperated r;aneirvering System (~iS) and progress through
options of varying capabilities to a manned Space Station scenario. Zfne
scenarios are shown in Table 3.1 and a description of each element of the
scenarios is presented in Appendix B.
It is necessary to point o!ut that the scenarios' capabilities and/or their
lirutations oo not ]end the;~.selves to a classical capture analysis M~,ere a
value, or figure of merit, can be placed on the increased capabilities. In a
classical capture analysis, the added capabilities, tJ-,eis develol-7.-.ent costs
and their life cycle cost would be used to 6etermine the b~*~=fit of the added
capability. Zb determine the value or benefit of each capability, a nor-
malization of scenario to scenario of long duration mis~io~s (years) would
require an exorbitant number STS launches. The cost of these additional
~~ launches (at S122 M average for Eastern Test Ranae or ~?:e_tern '~~est Rance
~..~ launch) causes the life cycle costs of the scenarios without lo~,g duration
mission capability to be very unrealistic.
Therefore, a qualitative evaluation of the~~capability of each scenario is
presented in Section 3.0 and the conclusions arawn fraR~ this evaluation are
presented in the S1IImtiary Sectioa~ 4.0.
The mission irodel is the result of a one year I~SA effort of planning mission
sets that represent the Aoe~cy's plans for the period 1991-2000 and are
within the Agency's forecast budget. The study was conducted MZthin the
frame work of exploiting the capabilities of a long term on-orbit facilit}?
with the added capability of manned interaction. Tne coupling of these two
unique aspects, the long duration in space and the pei-rr~anent presence of man,
is the key element of these missions sets. Upon ~;amination, many mission
requirements can be at least partially met with existing facilities, e.g., a
free flying satellite allows long mission duration and STS sortie missions
allow panned interaction, but only the Space Station provides both long
duration missions and manned interaction.
fbllvwing the mission analysis study and the architectural optioa~s survey,
the costs data for the Design, Develap~t, pest, and Evaluation (D~TbE) were
developed for the scenario efts that were incrementally added to the
present STS baseline. Alt~xx~gh the establishment of a figure of merit was
not possible, the DD'I'bE cost offers additional un3PSStanding to evaluate the
~~ added capabilities.
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Finally, Section 3.0 develops an evaluation of each soenau-io to determine if
? the scenario aooomndates the mission set and provides the cost for added
capability.
This doc~nent is beset] an a first iteratioa~ of a set of spao8 ~q~issioc~s and a
Space Station concept that will oo~ntinue to be refined in the ne~c~t few
months.
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2.0 I-~~'t~0ED0IDGY
~, 2.1 MISSIQ~I MODII.
2.1.1 Mission Model Development -
Rhe mission model was developed by merging the "STS Mission Model 1983-2000
-- Nominal Version" (Advanced Planning Division, NASA He~dguarters, Dece~er
20, 1982) and the results of the Space Station Mission Requirements Workshop
which was the culmination of one year of 1~1A-SA and private industry study of
missions for the Space Station era. The study and the Workshop were neces-
sa~cy because previous mission planning had generally considered only STS,
Spacelab, and Free Flyers and aid not include the availability of a Space
Station SYst?n. The Mission Requirements Workshop utilized advocacy groups
in three major areas: Science and Applications, CoRr~ercial, and 7~echnology
as a means to merge the results of the industry rlission JSnalysis Study
results of the past year with 11ASA's space mission plans. This activity can
be perceived as one of refocu_ing I~R.SA mission plans to include a capability
in excess of the present STS in terms of orbit stay time. This need ha= been
recognized for nany years, but mission planning has been constrained by the
lack of long-term, manned on-orbit capability.
Tne term "mission" is used very broadly in this model. In sane cases, the
term refers to (1) a single instruu~-nt (e?g? ~ a telescope) , or (2) a single
launch of a sraeecraft, or (3) a series of experiments.
2-1
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?.1.2 Mission Categories
The mflclel includes missions in the following categories:
2.1.2.1 Ast sics. The astrophysics missions use telesovpes or other
' detectors that are lvwn as missioo~s requiring one to ten years on~rbit to
ocnplete their mission objectives. The long duration is reguirerl because the
observation of just one object can require integration of photons wer a
period of hoairs or Lays and many objects must be surveyed and oQrpared;
siJrultaneous observations at several different wavelengths are often rewired
foz each object; and detection of changes aver periods of years are often
important. In addition, several missiou~s desire ready manned intervention
far adjustment and servicing of instruments.
2.1.2.2 Earth Science And Applications. Earth Science and Applications
missions are ges~erally fla-T in Pugh inclination orbits. Long duration
missions are essential for the observations of the slowly varying changes on
the earth's surface.
2.1.2.3 Solar System I~,p]oration. Tne Solar System F~ploration missions
utilize either ea'pendable upt.~er stages or Orbital Transfer Vehicles (OTV's)
for irsEition into the proper trajectory.
2.1.2.4 Life Sciences. Tne life sciences nissions rewire extended, unin-
terivpted timE on-orbit Mith extensive crew involve-r~ent. The major atjective
of these missions is to understand, and develop counterrr~sures for, the
effects of lack of gravity on hens.
2.1.2.5 Corrrisnication Satellites. The camrunications satellites require
launch capability to gc-osynchronous orbit.
2.1.2.6 Materials Processing._ Effective develogrent of N.aterials Processing
in Space (MPS) requires a research and develop~r~ent facility that affords long
duration, uninterrupted time on orbit with extensive manned interaction.
This facility would allow realization of the potential of MPS research to
yield new oorm~ercial enterprises and technology advances.
2.1.2.7 Satellite Servicing. On-orbit satellite servicing in law earth
orbit is expected to bec-'ame a rwtine Proced~e an the 1990s. Satellite
servicing includes routine and contingency maintenance of free flyers and
platforms, resupply of propellants, adjustment or change-out of scientific
instn~nents, and, in some cases, earorbit assembly and deplayrrp~t of satel-
lites. Servicing satellites at geosynchronous orbit. is also proposed.
2.1.2.8 Tec}u,ology Developnent. The Technology Develognent missions that
are listed in this model were designed specifically to take advantage of lone
duration in space with inrteraction by man. Most of these missions are
designed to provide verificatioa~ of Space Station technology for the enhance-
ment of Space Station evolution. Same of the missions prrn~ide signi ~i or
technology developn~~t for areas such as large ante-nna develogren
oorm~ercial ecmnunicatiosi.
2-2
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2.2 COST ESTD4ATDJG
The cost estimates used for the Space Station System were derived fran a cost
nvdel developed by NF~SA. This model is based on a historical manned space-
craft IGermini, Apollo, Skylab, bpaoelab, STS orbiter) and wvrarwed spacecraft
(I.andsat, }ffAp, ATS, and others) data base. This model uses oQst estimating
relationships (CER's) to determine the subsystem and system level costs. The
Cwt's in the cost model were developed from a norn~alized historical Data base
by parametric costing and similarity between present and past programs.
The cost estimates are for Design, DevelopR~ent, Test, and Evaluation (DDT&E)
and are based an 1984 dollars.
2.2.1 DDT&E Costs
When new elements (i.e., PLR, Platform, Space Station, see Appendix B for
Details) are zeguireo to support a scenario, a DDTbE cost for the ele~rnie t is
factored into the total cost. The cost includes design and development of
such items as structures, thermal control, electrical pacer, ccRninications,
data handing, attitude control, and environmental control a~,d life support
subsvsterns. It also includes the systems test hard~.-are, integration,
asse-n51y, checkout, ground support equipment, and program ra,-~aoe-re_*~t cost
estimates. Z'ne initial DDTbE cost inc]udes the cost of the first unit. If
additional elements (second buy's) are required, these ele-r~ents are procurer
at a significantly laser price since the initial units include the Design arc
developmr.~t oust.
Exa-~les of second unit cost can be seen by revie~~?ing D71'6E cost for Scenario
II. The cost of the 28.5? Space Platform is $650 t7. The cost for the 90?
Space Platform (a second unit) is $305 M.
Another exarrple of reduction in cost for like elements can be,seen in Scen-
ario IIIc. The cost for the first 28.5` Space Platform is $550 b~L less than
in Scenario II since scrne developrT~ent cost is covered b}' the Space Station
development. The second Space Platform (90?) for this Scenario is also less
($260 I~IIL) .
The cost for insts~r~ents or mission/payload equipment are not included in any
scenario cost.
Operations/Life Cycle Costs
An operations/life cycle cost was developed for the element within each
soP~ario from 1991 through 2000. The life cycle cost utilized for the STS
was based on STS historical data which includes the ground processing sn5
flight operations costs for each flight. However, as stated in the introdu~-
tion, this operational life cycle oust was not used.
2-3
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3.0 SC'D~lAR106
~~ The elements of each scenario are outlined in Table 3.1. The further detail
description of the elements is contained in Appendix B.
An extended orbitor capability, in the form of a power extension package, has
been added to same of the scenarios to evaluate its ability to fulfill the
mission model requirements
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X~ND s
STS - SPACE TRNJSPORTIITION TMS - ~ TOR M1114T?Z1VCitING SYS'CL?I'1 SBONT - SPM~ Bi~SED ORBITER TRANSFER VEHICLE
SY.~'I7T'1 PEP - P(7~^1[~Ft ~CrF~lSION PrC7U~GE (PEi'1 N[PS - IWITERIIILS PROCESSING IN SP~VCE
S/L - SPACEI~IB - 9O1rTIIS SP - UNMl1NNL~ 5P1~CF. FTJITPOTn`1 L/5 -LIFE SCIENCE
U/S - UPPtsR STAGES UTV/SS - tyl'V SP71CE STnTIC7N CJTV @ SS - O-PV G~P~IBILITY ADD? '1~ EXISTING
FF -FREE FLYt,RS SS - SP1VC~ STIITICIN SPMT STATIC~1 i ~
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? 3.1 SC:D~RIOI
3.1.1 Description
Scenario I utilizes the present STS syst+en augrr~ted with -~ STS based
Teleoperatar Maneuvering Systan t~'LSI to enhance capabilities for .depleym~t,
ar~d on~rbit maint,enanoe of free flying satellites.
retravial, service, io are free flying satellites, and exp~er,dable
Other elements 3n the scenar
ups ages (PAM-A, PAP7-D, IUS, and Crntaur) t~,at are used to lift payloads
from the shuttle orbit to geosynchronous and other high energy orbits.
3.1.2 Capabilities
.The Materials .processing missies preferred mode ~of accamndatie is the
Spade Station. These missions require long duration, uninterrupted time
on-orbit with ~.-tensive manned interaction. These missies caru~ot be accom-
modated by the capabilities of this scenario. A limitea amount of research
can be acca~lished b}- S"I5 sortie flights. These limited R&D missions could
provide early precuzser equipment 6evelogr~ent ]eading to the eventual product
ca ili but the potential of materials processing in space cannot be
pab ? t}',
fully developed with intermittent missions that cause mach lost time an
require the ehpense of re-integrating and relaunching the i,r,sti-~~ts for
only a wee3;'s ea-periurentation.
The astrophysics missions reauise long time on-orbit (one tc, ten years) ono
many of these missions also desire panned involvement for servicing and
adjustment of instiv~nents. The total mission set cannot be ac~nruaated
within the capabilities of Scenario I. Some of the missions will be flown as
free-flying satellites. The retraining missions will be placed on STS sortie
flight, where they do receive the benefit of manned involve~t; but in this
- case, the attair~nent of missioa~ object-fives 3s severely limited because of the
short duration of the STS flights. For example, experiments such as Starlab
and Solar Optical Telescope that need three~to four years of o~-orbit obser-
vation time are limited to one or more STS missions of ap*prwimately seven
days each, Since several days of autgassing time are required before good
observations can be perfozmed with these instrvQnents, the amount of good
quality data obtained is questionable.
Life science missions require . uninterrupted time on-orbit with
extensive crew involvement. These missions caTn~otlishecl inlthi~s scer~rio
scenario. Only precursoz experiments can be acoor*p
(flying these experiments as sortie missions 1 Shed with a~permanent manned
objectives of these missions can ely ~ 8O?Q~
orbiting faciilty.
The earth science and application missions in general require high in-
clination orbits and a few missions require man involvement. The high
inclination missies will be flown an free flyers in t~s soenar~e?~r~
missions requiring man interventie because of the ornp ty
~~' will ~ flown as ~attaimne~ of missie~go alp the short duratioa~ on
orbit severely buts the
missions preferred aocorm~a3ation merles are, satellite
Satellite servicing facili at reJriote servicing at the
return to the on-orbit servicing ~'?
3-3
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. satellite location. These missions can be accarplished with the STS, 'D~'LS,
and expe~r3aDle launch veJiic]es. However, the servicing ewigrent mist be
',~ brought to orbit an planned STS flights for each mission.
`~\pcrm~uiications satellites which require geosynchr~~aus orbit wilt be launched
via the STS with an experx3able upper stage (PAM A, PAM D, It?S, o~ Qentaur) .
Since the technology developrn~t missions in this model were designed
specifically as Space Station missions, most of the objectives cannot be
aocarQlished in this scenario. However, different versions of many of these
missions could be done an the STS. Additionally, the STS can be used to
enhance the tectu~ology required to build the initial Space Station.
The STS can be utilized for the development of sane techniques and eauiP'e-nt
for eventual use by the Space Station in fulfilling same of its nsssion
objectives (e.g., satellite servicing).
In Scenario I, the solar system exploration missions will be accarrplished
with expendable upper stages (IUS or Centaur) launched frar~the STS.
3.1.3 Cost
The follo~wi,ng are the cost associated with Scenario Z:
D7I`&E Cost
Cost
STS
(Developed)
0
Spacelab
(Developed)
0
Upper Stages
(Developed)
0
~
$ 232 MIL
*Free Flyers
(26 FF x $200)
$5200 ILL
Zbtal Cost $ 5432 NIIL
The Free Flyers cost is for the bus only, not instsurrients.
3-4
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? 3.2 BCII~ARIO IA
3.2.1 Descriptias~
This scenario utilizes the present STS system auc~nented with (1) a power
Pacte~sian package (PEP) which extends the shuttle o?>rbit stay time from a
maximsn of 7 to 20 days a~ (2) a STS based teleoperator maneuvering systan
('D~iS) to -enhar~oe capabilities far c7eploynar,t, retrieval, sezvioe, and
oo~~rbit maintenance of free flying satellites. Other elements in the
scenario are free flying satellites and Pxpendable upper stages (PAN A,
pAMb, IUS, and Oentaur) that are used to lift payloads from the shuttle
orbit to geosyr,chroa~o~us and other high energy orbits.
3.2.2 Capabilities
The major change in capabilities to this scenario from Scenario I, is the
additioa~ of the PEP (Power Drtension Package). This addition has a small
iJrpact on the fulfilling of the mussion miodel. The significant impact is in
the increased orbitor stay time for the Spaoelab/sortie missions. Lost
sortie missions benefit is an increase in the on-orbit staytime,~but still
fail to acccr~lish a significant fraction of the missioa~ objectives.
DDT~E
Cost
STS
(Developed)
0
S~acelab
(Developed)
0
~'
Upper Shoes
(Developed)
0
~
S232 MIIr
-*FYee Flyers ~~~
~ (27 x $200 Zb Support
5900 MIL
The Scenario)
_.
~
150 MIL
p~ ~ ~
~S $ 25 MIL
Zbtal Cost $ 5807 MIL
* The free flyers cost is for the bus aezly, not instn~nents.
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? 3.3 8(~~-RIOII
~1 3.3.1 Description
Scenario II utilizes the present STS system auc,~e'nted with a power ext ~sirn
package (P]~) which extends the Shuttle on~rbit SAY time sty (T LStj to
maximum of 20 days and a STS based Teleoperator t~;aneuvering Sy
eoh~noe capabilities for deployment, retrieval, service, and on~rbit n~ yinten-
anoe of free flying satellites. Other elements in the scenario arc free
flying satellites and experx3able upper stages PAM-A, PAr~ D, IUS, an?~ Cen-
taur) that are used to lift payloads from the shuttle orbit to geosyr,c}.-onous
and other high energy orbits.
. --?-The majoz e]eme~ts added to this scenario- over previous seP~arios are space
platforms located at 28.5? and 90? inclis-ations.
3.3.2 Capabilities
In Scenario II, the long duration astrophysics nsssions are acccsrrnoc3ated on
the platforms. They provide indefinite an-orbit stay time; haaever, there is
a mall percentage of time that rianned interaction is available. N.an is
present only during periodic STS servicing/supply russions -- probably t,,~ice
a year. .The addition of P~ to the STS in this scenario does not incr~se
the mission accarirnodation capability, but does prrn~iae longer servicinc
periods. knottier consideration for the astrophysics missies in this scen-
ario is that the platforms are cost-effective because the ir~stru+r~~ts are
placed on a ectmion bus, thus saving design, development, and pro;uction
(~' costs .
`~--' Zrne long duration earth science and applications rsssions are accam-odated an
the platforms ?~aith the save advantages and restrictions as for the astro-
physics missions. ?-- -~
Tyne solar sl?stem exploration and oeosynchronous satellite missions are
launched from the STS with e~cpen