CENTRAL AMERICA/MEXICO--OVERVIEW

• Document Type: CREST
• Collection: General CIA Records
• Document Number (FOIA) /ESDN (CREST): CIA-RDP85M00363R000501130005-1
• Release Decision: RIPPUB
• Original Classification: U
• Document Page Count: 12
• Document Creation Date: December 20, 2016
• Document Release Date: July 13, 2007
• Sequence Number: 5
• Publication Date: March 21, 1983
• Content Type: REPORT

Approved For Release 2007/07/13: CIA-RDP85M00363R000501130005-1
UNCLASSIFIED 21 March 1983
CENTRAL AMERICA/MEXICO -- OVERVIEW
I. Democratic trends in Latin America
23 of 32 countries with 70 of population are democratic (17) or liberalizing (6)
II. Soviet Bloc/Cuban/Nicaraguan support for guerrillas/subversion
- Targets include democratic as well as authoritarian regimes
-- recall 1960s Marxist Leninist guerrillas against Venezuela, Uruguay
-- since 1978 a massive increase and targets include democratic Colombia, Costa Rica
- Large scale of Cuban support for subversion illustrated by actions on three continents
Africa.- 70,000 military and other personnel; active in 14 countries
Middle East - working closely with Libya, South Yemen, PLO
Latin er ca - 8,000 Cubans in Nicaragua; Cubans helping dictatorships
consolidate power in Grenada, Nicaragua, Suriname... plus current
major subversive operations in Central America, Colombia,
Dominican Republic, Haiti, Chile
III. Conclusive evidence of Soviet Bloc/Cuban sort for the violent left in Central America
prov ides location of training camps, command centers, arms supp STAT
routes
WP have evidence of Nicaragua based command and control of guerrilla forces
- adds by showing massive Soviet Bloc arms inflow to Nicaragua, airfields 'STAT
arms supply to guerrillas (PAPALONAL example), 40 new military bases
- Capture of safe houses, arms supply cars and trucks in Costa Rica Honduras; illustrate-.
cooperation among regional Marxist-Leninist terrorists and Cuban/Nicaraguan support
(example July 1982 Colombian M 19 member caught in Costa Rica with Nicaraguan embassy
officers as his controls also caught in terrorism campaign against the anti-communist
social democratic president, Luis Alberto Monge
IV. Nicaragua - the real situation
internal
-- Marxist-Leninist Directorate in control with new secret police army, 8,000 Cubans, 500
or more Soviet Bloc, Libyan, PLO personnel
-- genuinely democratic groups (parties, trade unions, church, business) still exist but
have no power
-- Sandinistas have broken the democratic promises made in July 1979 and OAS required
-- Anti-Sandinistas are NOT SOMOCISTAS, rather want to implement democracy
external
-flu 1-cooperation with Soviet Bloc/Cuba...treaties since March 1980 Moscow visit
-- massive military build-up and export of subversion continues
Western economic aid has been generous and has had no moderating effect
-- Since July 1 Western aid billion of which billion bilateral
-- all the rest of Central America received only $750 million in bilateral aid
-- European socialist international legitimation of the Sandinistas has been a major
factor
V. Three forces are competing in El Salvador
-
violent right - many large landowners angered by the land reforms plus non-governmenta
groups, some elects of the ARENA party and no more than 10-15% of the
military/security leadership
-
violent left -
led by the FMLN/DRU formed in Havana at Castro's initiative
-- consists of six Marxist-Leninist groups including the Communist
Party
-- non-Marxist-Leninist component is very small (400 among 4,000-6,000
guerrilla fighters), has no real-influence and is self-admittedly
under the command of the Marxist-Leninists.
-
responsible Political forces ranging from Christian democrats, other centrists,
conservatives also includes democratic trade unions (UPD/UCS), most of the business
community, Catholic Church leadership and 85% of the military officers.
Accomplishments
-- continuing the battle against the violent left and substantially weakening the power c
the violent right.
-- elections in 1982 with 85% participation and those scheduled for late 1983.
-- land reforms implemented since March/April 1980 with benefits for 550,000 peasants.
UNCLASSIFIED
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Last
Next Election/
Democratic
Election
Target Date
Antigua and Barbuda
Apr 80
Jul 85
Bahamas, The
Jun 82
Jun 87
Barbados
Jun 81
Jun 86
Belize
Nov 79
Dec 84
Bolivia
Jun 80a
86
Colombia
May 82
May 86
Costa Rica
Feb 82
Feb 86
Dominica
Jul 80
Jun 85
Dominican Republic
May 82
May 86
Ecuador
Apr 79
May 84
Honduras
Nov 81
Nov 85
Jamaica
Oct 80
Oct 85
Peru
May 80
May 85
St. Lucia
May 82
Aug 87
St. Vincent and the
Dec 79
Mar 85
Grenadines
Trinidad and Tobago
Nov 81
Nov 86
Venezuela
Dec 78
Dec 83
In Transition
Argentina
73
Oct 83
Brazilb
Nov 82
Jan 85
El Salvador
Mar 82
late 83
Guatemala
Mar 82
86`
Panama
Oct 78
late 84
Uruguay
71
Nov 84d
C Authoritarian/One Party Rule
Chile
70
89n
Cuba
Nov 81
Nov 86
Grenada
Guyana
Dec 76
Dec 80
85
Haiti
Feb 79
Apr 83
Mexico
Jul 82
Jul 88
Nicaragua
85
Paraguay
Feb 83
Feb 88
Suriname
Oct 77
"Military government turned over control on
10 October 1982.
b Elections for most offices held in November 1982;
president to be elected indirectly in 1985.
`Constituent Assembly elections proposed in 1984; date
for national elections not set,
dNational elections and constitutional plebescite set for
November 1984.
"National plebescite on successor to Pinochet scheduled
for 1989, but plan likely to be modified as date
approaches.
Boundary repro entahon is
not necessarily authoritative.
The Bahamas
Cuba
Dominican
Republic
Aniyua
,and Ba rh uda
St Vincent and cqt. o.
the Grenadines` "Barbados
Grenada
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Democratic or Liberalizing: 23 of 32 Countries with 71% of the Population
FORMS OF GOVERNMENT IN LATIN AMERICA
Region Democratic Rule (17)
25 April 1983
Has Initiated a Process Authoritarian/One
for Transition to Demo- Party Rule (9)
cratic Government
Elections
Elections
Elections
Most
Scheduled
Most
Scheduled
Most
Scheduled
Recent
or Target
Recent
or Target
Recent
or Target
Central America
Belize
Nov 79
Dec 84
El Salvador
Mar 82
late 83
Mexico
Jul 82
Jul 88
Costa Rica
Feb 82
Feb 86
Panama
Oct 78
late 84
Nicaragua
85
*Honduras
Nov 81
Nov 85
Guatemala
Mar 82
86?2
Caribbean
Antigua & Barbuda
Apr 80
Jul 85
Cuba
Nov 81
Nov 86
Bahamas
Jun 82
Jun 87
Grenada
Dec 76
Barbados
Jun 81
Jun 86
Guyana
Dec 80
85
Dominica
Jul 80
Jun 85
Haiti
Feb 79
Apr 83
*Dominican Republic
May 82
May 86
Suriname
Oct 77
Jamaica
Oct 80
Oct 85
St. Lucia
May 82
Aug 87
St. Vincent & the
Dec 79
Mar 85
Grenadines
Trinidad & Tobago
Nov 81
Nov 86
South America
*Bolivia
Jun 801
86
Argent na
73
Oct 83
Chile
70
895
Colombia
May 82
May 86
Brazil
Nov 82
Jan 85
Paraguay
Feb 83
Feb 88
*Ecuador
Apr 79
May 84
Uruguay
71
Nov 844
* Peru
May 80
May 85
Venezuela
Dec 78
Dec 83
Total Population: 94 million Total Population: 174 million Total Population: 108 million
1
military government turned over control on 10 October 1982
2
Constituent Assembly elections proposed in March 1984; date for national elections not set
3
elections
for most offices held in November 1982; president to be elected indirectly in 1985
4
national
elections and constitutional plebescite set for November 1984
5
national
plebescite on successor to Pinochet scheduled for 1989, but plan likely to be modified as date approaches
*
have become democracies since 1978
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GNP per capita
(US $)
External
Public Debt
(billion US$)
Life Expectancy
At Birth (years)
2.1 3.2
1967 70
Central America South America
and Panama
7.6
68 63
61 58
Secondary
Education
Enrollment
(percent of
age group)
Adult
Literacy Rate
(percent)
Most
Recent
Estimate
1,205 2,114
1,719
1960 70 Most 1960 70 Most
Recent Recent
Estimate Estimate
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UNCLASSIFIED
OVERVIEW OF ECONOMIC AND SOCIAL IMPROVEMENTS IN CENTRAL AMERICA
1960-1978
Economic Growth
Country Population Adult Literacy Life Expectancy (% Increase in Real GNP)
1960
1980
1960
1980
1960
1980
1960-1977
11982 est
-IT ml ion
percent
COSTA RICA
1.2
2.2
NA
88
62
70.0
+5.7
-6.0
EL SALVADOR
2.4
4.7
49
62
50
63
+5,3
-5.5
GUATEMALA
3.8
7.3
31.5
46
47
57
+5.7
-3.5
HONDURAS
1.8
3.7
45
57
46
57
+7.8
-1.2
PANAMA
1.1
1.9
73
78
62
70
+6.3
+1.0
NICARAGUA
1.4
2.6
NA "
57
47
55
+6.2
-5.0
AVERAGE INCREASE FROM
1960 - 1980:
10 years
11%
*Represents 1980 or estimate of most recent year
"Since 1978, the combination of global economic problems and increased guerrilla violence
and terrorism have combined to bring about far lower economic growth.
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UNCLASSIFIED
JL_
MILITARY ADVISORS IN LATIN AMERICA: U.S. USSR CUBA
-MILITARY ADVISORS WITH LATIN AMERICAN
COUNTRIES
6,000
5,OJU
4,000
3,000
2,000
1,000
41-
m r.n. I,.b
Vw
mcum
NA A R Tf N N
Source: From the testimony of Dr. Fred C. We to the US Senate
Terrorism
hearings on The Role of Cuba in tIonal heeComnittee on the
and Subversion; 5. Senate, February 26 to March 12. 1982.
r
Judiciary,
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UNCLASSIFIED
SOVIET MILITARY DELIVERIES TO CUBA: 1962 TO 1981
Thousands
of Tons
300. _......,a..
-Sovirr MIUTAIY Dsuvn m To Cu
Source: From the testimony of Dr. Fred C. We to the US Senate
hearings on The Role of Cuba in International Terrorism
and Subversion; Hearings before the Committee on the
Judiciary, U.S. Senate, February 26 to March 12, 1982.
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UNCLASSIFIED
CUBAN PRESENCE IN NICARAGUA
8,000
7.000
6.000
5,000
4.000
3,000
2.000
1.000
#uly~26 October Fe ruary my tober a ruary
1979 1979 1980 1980 1981 1983
M = Military/Security Personnel
c Civilian Personnel
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I Au C
4110M IN TIE ARIEO EXTWE LEFT IN CEMTMAL AMERICA 1960-1062 (u)
1060-1970 1971-1977 1978 1,979
Armed Armed Armed h mea Area Armed Armed
Extreme Extreme Extreme Extreme Extreme Extreme Extreme
Left Lift Left Let t Left Left
TOTAL: )SO 1.200 3.450 7.500 1.500 1.600 7.700
vieara9ua
ISO
300
2.000
6.600
greet Targets
El Salvador
0
300
ISO
2.000
3.600
4.500
4.500
iwtav l a
400
600
400
1.000
2.000
3.000
3.000
Mbnduras
0
0
gems
We
same
100
200
Cotta Rica
some
Sul-TOTAL:
VM
IIM
1.
J.QDO
b.500
.
?
UNCLASSIFIED
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UNCLASSIFIED
US/LADS-ECONOMIC AID AND SANDINISTA ACTIONS - THE FIRST TEN WEEKS - 1979
DATE
SOURCE
AMOUNT PURPOSE DATE
SANDINISTA ACTIONS
(in meson)
Aug 79
USAID
$1.9
Food through GRN Aug 79
Newspaper, El Pueblo.
$6.9
Ministry of
Health & Social
Welfare
Govt to Govt
shut down
Sandinistas begin military
build up, including
$17.6
loan commodities
for distribution
Loan to GRN to
construction of new
bases and airfields
Sandinistas move to
Sept 79
IADB
$20
finance sale of
agric. commodities
Multi-purpose Sept 79
consolidate labor
unions under 2 Sandinista
umbrella organizations.
606 Nicaraguan students
go to Isle of Youth, Cuba
A new militia begins
$36.5
loan
Agricuture/
to be organized
Sandinistas begin to aid
$25
Industrial
Industrial
Salvadoran insurgents by
facilitating shipment of
arms, supplies; providing
training facilities
Pham Van Dong, premier
of Socialist Republic
of Vietnam arrives
Daniel Ortega and Alfonso
Robelo meet with Pres.
Carter at White House
TOTAL
$102.6
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El Salvador: Development and Status of the Extreme Left Coalition
Marxist-Leninist
1932/Communist led insurrection
fails
1979/Unity meeting in Havana
led by Castro
May 1980/Unity Meeting
in Nicaragua
PCES (Communist Party of
UDN
Non-Marxist-Leninist
MNR
1
970
FPL*
BPR
1972
ERP*
LP-28
1975
FARN
FAPU PRTC*
MLP
Jan 1980
Mar 1980
MPSC
r
O
_
Apr 1980
May 1980
(FMLN)
Jan 1981/FMLN/DRU "Final
Offensive" Fails (Estimated 4,000-6,000 full time
guerrillas plus an equal number
of Activists)
(Estimated 200-400
unarmed party
members)
Legend:
--------Faction which left the Communist Party
L1
4M
Front Organization
Umbrella Organization
* Violent Extreme Left Group or
Command Authority
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Date
25 November 1975
May 1979
25 February 1980
August 1980
May 1981
June 1981
March 1982
May 1982
October 1982
Event
Suriname granted independence from the Netherlands.
Diplomatic relations established with Cuba.
Sergeant Bouterse and "The Group of 16" seize power.
Bouterse accuses Cubans of encouraging a leftist coup.
Parliament dissolved. Seven leftist including
Sgts-Sital, Mijnals and Joeman arrested for planning a coup.
Pro-Cuban sergeants are released after Coup attempt
Government issues manifesto putting Suriname on
socialist footings; six member-Policy Center created.
Havana established an official mission in Paramaribo
Coup attempt foiled; Sgt Hawker executed.
Increased contacts with Cubans
Cuban Ambassador Cardenas presents his credentials in
Paramaribo. Grenadan Prime Minister Bishop visits
Suriname:*
8 Decmeber 1982 Fifteen opponents of the Bouterse regime executed,
including Cyrill Daal (head of the largest trade union
federation-Moederbond); the editor of the local news
agency and three other leading journalists; the chairman
of the lawyers association and three other attorneys.; the
university's dean of economics; and two former cabinet
mini sters--one.a local sports hero.
30 January 1983 Deputy Army Comander Horb and 14 others arrested.
2 February 1983 Horb is alleged to have "committed suicide."
28 February 1983 New cabinet is named with PALU leader Alibux as Prime
Minister.
4 March 1983 Bouterse flys with Castro and Bishop to NAM summit in
New Delhi.
* This Cuban Ambassador is an intelligence agent and was in Granada before,
during, and after the 1979 coup. It resulted in a pro-Cuban government there.
Socio-economic facts: GNP = $1 billion (2,800/capita); 85% literacy
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