C.I.A. SAYS SOVIET CAN ALMOST DO WITHOUT IMPORTS

• Document Type: CREST
• Collection: General CIA Records
• Document Number (FOIA) /ESDN (CREST): CIA-RDP85M00363R000601440021-8
• Release Decision: RIFPUB
• Original Classification: K
• Document Page Count: 1
• Document Creation Date: January 4, 2017
• Document Release Date: April 7, 2008
• Sequence Number: 21
• Publication Date: January 9, 1983
• Content Type: OPEN SOURCE

Approved For Release 2008/04/15: CIA-RDP85M00363R000601440021-8
NEW YORK TIMES
LXT i CI APPiARED
9 JANUARY 1983
C.I.A. Says Soviet Can Almost Do Without
at odds with European allies an wi World War II. lack of economic efficiency, "the
some American businessmen. wr.. V_o? rnnnr! m~ _?*rdi at 1
sought to tighten Western controls on did not recognize Soviet tons.
trade to the Soviet Union to bring politi- a the -, As a result of recent declines in the
cal pressure on Moscow, a policy often regime, and it continued as a result of rate of growth, the gap between per-
il th the isolation the country experienced in formance and expectations, and the
The Reagan Administration has dates from the earnest days after the he said, noting the apparent contradici-
1917 revolution when most foreign
The report, to the Joint "~' '~~ Y' ? _~~ `~?, UE',GrLI avvlcl ca.ULW LUa ,VL1V1L"aU%,V
' dustrialized economies. as `poor' or 'deteriorating' at a time
Economic Committee of Congress on "Consequently,". he concluded, "the when Soviet defense
Dec. 1 by Henry Rowen, chairman of spending continues
the C.I.A.'s National Intelligence Conn- susceptibiity of the- Soviet union to eco- to rise, overall Soviet gross national
cil, seems to support the argument that nomic leverage tends to be limited. product in real terms continues to in.
American trade embargoes against the The Soviet Union has always put crease and Soviet G.N.P. is second in
Soviet Union have only limited effect great emphasis on self-sufficiency. This size only to that of the United States,"
By BERNARDNARD GWERTZMAN 1 An Ability `to Remain Viable
s .-r~tri Imports from the West, Mr. Rowen
WASHINGTON, Jan. 8-The Central said, "can play an important role rig /''~
Intelligence Agency, in a study of thetechno hevtno critlogical icalprog greress s a annd d gen en spurring
Soviet economy.. concludes that the
improving Soviet economic peform-1 Mr, Rowen said uie U.I.A. agreed
Soviet Union's ability to live without im- ; ance." But he added that "the ability of with Mr. Proxmire that "confusion sur-
ports is much greater than that of most, the Soviet economy to remain viable in rounding the Soviet economy abounds."
possibly all, other industrialized econo- the absence of imports is much greater
"Western observers have tended to
But. Mr. Rowen said that "despite the Energy Production Rises
large-scale expansion in agricultural Mr. Rowen said that natural gas pro-
imports, the Soviet Union remains basi- duction had continued to increase at a
tally self-sufficient with respect to rapid rate, 8 percent in 1982, and that
food
He" said the avers a Soviet citizen . energy as a whole was increasing, with
Oil
about consumes about 3,300 calories a day, as ceentpi by the past 1 percent and cRus ans
against 3,520"for an American. The re- lYthei The R ~cc_ihe
have also improved their trade with the
port showed that the Soviet diet consists West, cutting their deficit from $4 bil-
ot far more grain and potatoes than the lion in 1981 to $2 billion in 1982.
American diet, but less fish and meat The Soviet gross national product in
and less sugar. And Mr. Rowen said 1982 was estimated at $1.6 trillion, or
that grain production in the Soviet
Union "is more than sufficient to meet t American p piths ~8ho 55 percent of
consumer demand for bread and other the e Agross national product.
cereal products." The C.I.A. estimated Soviet gold re-
The report said trade with the West serves at 200 million troy ounces, giving
amounted to only 5 percent of the Soviet it 35 percent of the world total. Produce
' gross national product. But it seemed to tion in 1981 was estimated at tons
and its stock at about 1,900 tons, , worth.!
agree with some Administration policy over$25 billion at current prices.
makers when it said the Russians would The report said a major weakness in
have to import 15 million to 20 million 1 the economy was the declining growth
tons of steel pipe in the next seven years of the work force, with only 9 million ex
to build the pipelines it has planned, and pected to join in this decade as against
will need "sophisticated" exploration ' 19 million in the 1970's.
equipment for its oil and natural gas Agriculture remains the weakest
fields. The Administration has tried to link. Grain production achieved a
block those exports in particular, record high of 237 million tons in 1978
provoking feuds with Western govern-, but has not reached 190 million tons
ments that have contracted to provide since then. The report also highlighted
the equipment. problems in poor administration, bot-
had "become critical" to maintaining a month to point out strengths in the tamed decline in G.N.P. - even a re- .~
quality diet. Soviet economy. mote possibility," he said.
Imports of grain and other agricul- The- C.I.A. projects, he said, that
tural products, it said, meant primarily ' Soviet economic growth "will remain
to prevent a decline in meat consump- slow but positive," averaging 1 to 2 per-
tion, cost the Russians $12 billion in cent "for the foreseeable future," al-
1981, or 40 percent of their hard-cur- though per capita consumption might
rency purchases that year. level off ordrop slightly.
Capital, Technology and Food the request of Senator William Prox- in recent years bas indeed been poor!'
The C.I.A. report said that for the last mire, Democrat of Wisconsin. The he said.
decade the Soviet Union has used trade Senator, who is vice chairman of the "Results that are unsatisfactory
with the West to help modernize its subcommittee on international trade, when measured by this yardstick, how-
economy and make it more efficient. It finance and security economics, hid ever, do not mean that the Soviet econ-
said that the Russians had relied on im. asked for "a balanced assessment" of omy is losing its viability as well as its
ports of capital and technology to in- the strengths and. weaknesses of the dynamism," the C.I.A. official said.
crease or maintain production of some Soviet economy. "In fact, we do not consider an eco-
tlenecks in industry, an overworked
'railroad system and depletion of many
mineral reserves.
Approved For Release 2008/04/15: CIA-RDP85M00363R000601440021-8