CONTINUITY OF LANDSAT DATA

• Document Type: CREST
• Collection: General CIA Records
• Document Number (FOIA) /ESDN (CREST): CIA-RDP85M00363R001002260005-0
• Release Decision: RIFPUB
• Original Classification: K
• Document Page Count: 7
• Document Creation Date: December 20, 2016
• Document Release Date: January 4, 2008
• Sequence Number: 5
• Content Type: MEMO

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'ArES oe P
MEMORANDUM FOR MEMBERS OF THE CABINET COUNCIL ON
COMMERCE AND TRADE (CCCT)
Malcolm Baldrige, Chairman Pro Tempore
Cabinet Council on Commerce and Trade
Continuity of Landsat Data
Should the Administration purchase an additional Landsat?
II. BACKGROUND
President Reagan announced on March 8, 1983, the Administration's
intent to seek transfer of the Nation's civil land and weather
satellites to the private sector. The transfer is contingent upon
protecting U.S. national security and foreign policy interests,
and securing a favorable business proposition for the taxpayer.
When the preparatory work leading to the President's decision
was completed, the Landsat-4 satellite had been sccessfully
launched and was fully operational. A follow-on satellite, called
Landsat-D', was nearing completion.
It was expected that Landsat-4 would operate until approximately
July 1985, and be replaced by Landsat-D' to continue service until
approximately July 1988. This would have permitted a reasonably
smooth transition to a private sector system, because a selection
of a private entity in 1984 would have preceded by four years
the failure of Landsat-D'. Four to five years is a brisk, but
acceptable, period for the production of a modern space system.
The smooth transition is no longer possible because of the immi-
nent failure of Landsat-4. Three major subsystems have fully or
partially failed and the best available estimate shows that the
satellite-will fail completely within a few months. Enclosure 1
describes the status of Landsat-4.
Preparations are under way to launch Landsat-D' sooner, possibly
as early as the spring of 1984. If the launch is successful,
service should be available until the spring of 1987. This will
lead to a data gap from Landsat-4 class systems for approximately
eighteen months after the demise of Landsat-D'. Alternatively,
the gap at the end of life could be replaced by delaying the
launch of Landsat-D' and increasing the gap in 1984 and 1985.
Washington. D.C. 20230
`s~FC
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This option is not addressed below because it adds storage costs
to the approximately $25 million that will be required to launch
Landsat-D', and undermines the already modest market for Landsat
data.
The above considerations lead to the question whether a service
gap seriously affects data users or the private sector transfer
process, and whether a follow-on Landsat should be purchased to
avoid the gap. Because schedules and dates play an important
role in the succeeding discussion, Enclosure 2 lists the major
milestones and their dates.
Significant current users of Landsat data include the Department
of Agriculture, national security agencies,, the academic community,
the private sector, and a variety of international users. The
total Federal Landsat data purchase for fiscal year 1983 is
expected to be approximately $7 million. The combined foreign
ground station access fees and sales, plus the remaining U.S. over-
the-counter sales, were expected to equal another $8 million.
This latter number may have to be revised downward because of the
condition of Landsat-4. The year-to-date total for all Landsat
revenues is nominally $10 million. It should be noted,that this
figure does not reflect secondary or tertiary uses of the data,
where most believe the true economic value of Landsat lies.
Current uses of Landsat data, many of which are .sFi'11 largely in
a research status, include contributing to crop production esti-
mates, assessments of vegetation condition, mineral exploration,
water resource estimation, and land use planning.
The new sensor flown on Landsat-4, the Thematic Mapper, has
(?"J produced significant results in all of the above areas. It has
also produced results suggesting new applicatons as well. The
Multispectral Scanner on Landsat-4 is essentially the same instru-
4 ment flown on the earlier Landsats.
The ultimate economic value and operational utility of Landsat
remain uncertain, but each succeeding Landsat has produced
increasingly encouraging results, even though. no major rush of
private investment has occurred.
The private sector transfer of the civil satellites is proceeding.
A request for proposals is planned for November of this year.
Vendor selection is scheduled for May 1984.`
If a satisfactory arrangement is found with private industry, and
legislation is passed by Congress, a firm could place an order
for a commercial Landsat as early as October 1984. Service could
then begin in October 1988 or somewhat later. This schedule leads
to the eighteen-month data gap mentioned above.
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It could also be determined in May 1984 that no proposition is
satisfactory. Although it is not current policy to assure Landsat
data continuity, if it were then determined that Landsat data
should continue through Government operation of at least the
space segment, procurement of a follow-on Landsat could begin at
that time. Depending on the extent of changes to the current
design, service could begin in 1989 or 1990. This leads to an
even longer. data gap.
The interruption of Landsat-4 class data must be considered against
the potential availability of data from the French SPOT system and
the satellite planned by American Science and Technology (AS&T).
The French are planning to launch their satellite in early 1985.
AS&T has not established a firm date, but it appears certain to
be later than the French system. Both systems are considerably
different from Landsat-4.
AS&T proposes to launch a system that is largely a xtensio of
Multispectral Scanner technology. The initial sensor wi. have
two visible and two infrared bands, with a spatial resolution of
80 meters. For comparison purposes, the Thematic Mapper on
sat-4 has seven bands and provides a spatial resolution of
eters in the visible and near infrared. The AS&T system
cks the middle and far infrared bands that are of interest to
the geological community. Landsat-D' will provide service to
that community during its lifetime.
The French 'SPOT system is complementary to the Landsat-4 system.
It has somewhat better spatial resolution in the multispectral
mode (20 meters instead of 30 meters). It also has a higher
resolution (10 meters) panchromatic mode and an offset pointing
and stereo capability. It shares largely the spectral limitations
of the American Science and Technology system. It is, therefore,
not a direct replacement for Landsat-4.
Last year the National Security Council staff disapproved an
agency's request to obtain sample SPOT data on the basis that it
would lend support to a foreign system. While no general policy
has been developed, restrictions on the use of data from a foreign
system could suggest the need for continuing support for a U.S.
system. Further, there is a related open issue as to whether the
a U.S. should rely on a foreign system for earth resources data.
The conclusion of the above is that a data gap after Landsat-D'
and before fruition of the commercialization activities may be
filled by reliance on a small and unproven U.S. company, or by
accepting reliance on a foreign supplier--assuming in the latter
instance that any policy issues are resolved satisfactorily.
Alternatively, a data gap could be minimized by the purchase of
an additional Landsat. The total cost, including launch, of a
Landsat of the current design is approximately $300 million. The
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fraction of the cost that would be required in fiscal year 1984
is approximately $65 million. On the assumption that work could
begin in the spring of 1984, launch could occur in the spring of
1988. This still leaves a data gap, but reduces it by six months
or possibly more. It also produces a system more likely to
sustain the availability of data during the transfer process,
but increases the Federal investment that would be subject to
some cost recoupment formula during the transfer process.
There are two options: (1) Procure a follow-on Landsat. (2) Do
not procure a follow-on Landsat and accept either a data gap or
reliance upon the AS&T or SPOT systems.
OPTION 1 - Procure a follow-on Landsat.
1. Minimizes data gap from Landsat-4 class systems
after the demise of Landsat-D'.
2. Assists current market development by providing
increased confidence in data availability.
3. Eliminates U.S. need to rely upon a foreign system
or an unproven U.S. venture for daa.
1. Increases Federal budget, and no agency has agreed
to allocate funds within its outyear guidelines.
2. Increases purchase cost of the system to the private
sector, if cost recoupment is sought.
3. Gives appearance of a reluctance on the part of
the Government to get out of the.Landsat business.
4. Will create a Government competitor. to firms such
as AS&T that could dissuade their investors from
continued participation in the venture.
OPTION 2 - Do not procure a follow-on Landsat.
Pros:
1. Requires no addition to Federal budget.
2. Demonstrates U.S. intent to establish a private
sector presence in space remote sensing.
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3. Minimizes the amount of capital equipment to be
transferred.
4. Places greatest reliance upon the private sector
and the marketplace in defining the system
characteristics for the satellite that will follow
Landsat-D'.
1. May make the U.S. reliant upon a French system for
earth resources data.
2. Produces greatest data gap for Landsat-4 class
systems.
3. Produces less assurance of data availability to
the value-added industry.
4. Current system is subject to complete failure in
the event Landsat-D' is not successfully launched
or does not last a full three yeats..
In meetings of the CCCT working group on Landsat
Interior and State favored Option 2. NASA, NSC,
were undecided. The Department of Commerce supp
USDA,
and Defense
Option 1.
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r:nciosure 1
The newest of the U.S. earth resources satellites,
Landsat-4, was launched in July 1982. Although the satellite
has provided spectacular new views of the Earth, it has
experienced a series of major system failures. This is
a frequent occurrence in the first satellite of a new series.
Three major subsystems have experienced failures:
(1) the central control unit which channels upcoming commands
to the proper destination on the satellite, (2) the X-band
transmitter which provides satellite-to-ground transmission
of high resolution data from the Thematic Mapper, and (3) the
solar array cable which connects to the power processing
module.
The failure of the central control unit has left
the satellite with a possibility of complete failure at
any time. Operation continues on a redundant system, but
should it fail there would be no way to control the satellite.
The X-band transmitter has interrupted the flow of
Thematic Mapper data. This prevents the transmission of
high-resolution data to foreign ground stations, and
prevents the collection of all foreign data at the 30-meter
resolution level. When the Tracking and Data Relay Satellite
System (TDRSS) completes its checkout, collecon of high-
resolution data can resume through that channel. Unfortunately,
the TDRSS will be heavily loaded in August and September with
preparations and conduct of the STS-8 and STS-9 missions and
may be unable to provide service to Landsat before the third
subsystem failure brings the mission to a close.
There are four panels which make up the solar array on
Landsat-4. The wires connecting two of those panels to the
satellite's power supply have broken, and the satellite is
operating on half power. The wires break because of a design
error in the cable assembly and the nature of that error makes
it inevitable that a third panel will fail soon. That failure
will end the mission. The best engineering judgment is that
the failure will occur this Fall, and October is being used
as a planning date.
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Enclosure 2
Present Private
Satellites Sector and Landsat
(Landsat-4 & -D') Foreign Follow-on (D")
Failure of Landsat-4 10/83
Release of Commerciali-
zation Solicitation 11/83
Receipt of Commerciali-
zation Proposals
Earliest Launch of
Landsat-D' and Start
on Landsat-D"
3/84 3/84
Decision on Commerciali-
zation Proposals 5/84
Earliest Start on Commer-
cial Satellite Resulting
from Solicitation
10/84-.
Launch of French SPOT
Satellite 1/85
Speculative AS&T Launch
Date
End of Life for Landsat-D'
Launch of Landsat-D"
Earliest Launch of Commer-
cial Satellite Resulting
from Solicitation
1/86
3/87
10/88
3/88
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