PROSPECTS OF IRAN CLOSING THE PERSIAN GULF

• Document Type: CREST
• Collection: General CIA Records
• Document Number (FOIA) /ESDN (CREST): CIA-RDP85M00363R001102600010-5
• Release Decision: RIPPUB
• Original Classification: T
• Document Page Count: 1
• Document Creation Date: December 20, 2016
• Document Release Date: January 16, 2008
• Sequence Number: 10
• Publication Date: September 27, 1983
• Content Type: REPORT

Approved For Release 2008/01/16 :CIA-RDP85M00363R001102600010-5
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Prospects of Iran Closing the Persian Gulf
Talking Points for the DCI
27 September 1983
S aroma ry
The Iran-Iraq war remains a stalemate with neither side able to win a
decisive military victory on the ground. Ayatollah Khomeini is determined to
continue the war until Iraqi President Sad dam Hussein falls from power and we
see no evidence of progress toward a negotiated settlement. Iraq is
desNerately searching for an action that will either end the war or relieve
the country's financial burden.
Current Situation
After its defeats early this year, Iran decided to pursue a war of
attrition punctuated by limited attacks.
? No mayor fiyhtiny has taken place since early last month, Iran achieved
some limited gains in Iraq's Kurdish area in July but failed in attacks
along the central border in August.
? The Iranians are preparing for new limited attacks in Iraq's Kurdish
area before late October.
With oil exports limited to the Turkish pipeline, Iraq's economy soon
will be strained to its limits. Iraq's current account deficit will reach an
estimated $15 billion this year and its foreign reserves will plummet to less
than $5 billion by years end.
The Super Etendard
We believe Iraq is planning to break the stalemate by attacking Iranian
oil exports. Baghdad's weapon for this escalation apparently is the French-
built Super Etendard aircraft armed with Exocet missiles.
~m to use the Super Etendard to attack oil tankers serving Iran.
Saddam's military advisers have urged
25X1
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We have attached two copies of a typescript memorandum, Iran-Iraq War:
Increased Threat to Gulf Uil Exports, which we have delivered to the working
levels of key departments of the intelligence community, in case you would
like to pass one to Mr. Clark.
Approved For Release 2008/01/16 :CIA-RDP85M00363R001102600010-5