DEMOCRATIZATION TRENDS IN LATIN AMERICA

• Document Type: CREST
• Collection: General CIA Records
• Document Number (FOIA) /ESDN (CREST): CIA-RDP85M00363R001403210023-0
• Release Decision: RIFPUB
• Original Classification: U
• Document Page Count: 5
• Document Creation Date: December 20, 2016
• Document Release Date: January 9, 2008
• Sequence Number: 23
• Publication Date: March 9, 1983
• Content Type: REPORT

Approved For Release 2008/01/09: CIA-RDP85M00363R001403210023-0
UNCLASSIFIED
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Democratization Trends in Latin America (see attached table)
The trend toward democratic government in Latin America continues.
Among the 32 independent states of Latin America, 17 are democratic and
6 others, including Brazil and Argentina, have begun a process to achieve
full democratic government. Taken together, these 23 countries account
for 268 million citizens, or nearly 71 percent of Latin America's popula-
tion of 376 million. Since 1978 alone, 5 countries have made a peaceful
transition from military regimes to elected democratic governments.
0
0
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? """`~ " y`" NIO/LA
9 March 198
FORMS OF GOVERNMENT IN LATIN AMERICA
Region
Democratic Rule (17)
Has Initiated a Process
for Transition to Demo-
cratic Government (6
Authoritarian/One
Party Rule 9
Elections
Elections
Elections
Most
Scheduled
Most
Scheduled
Most
Scheduled
Recent
or Target
Recent
or Target
Recent
or Target
Central America
Belize
Nov 79
84
El Salvador
Mar 82
late 83
Mexico
Jul 82
Jul 88
Costa Rica
Feb 82
86
Panama
Oct 78
late 84
Nicaragua
85
*Honduras
Nov 81
85
Guatemala2
Mar 82
86?
Caribbean
Antigua & Barbuda
Apr 80
Jul
85
Cuba
Nov 81
86
Bahamas
Jun 82
87
Grenada
Dec 76
Barbados
Jun 81
86
Guyana
Dec 80
85
Dominica
Jul 80
Jun 85
Haiti
Feb 79
83
South America
*Dominican Republic
Jamaica
St. Lucia
St. Vincent & the
Grenadines
Trinidad & Tobago
*Bolivial
May 82
Oct 80
May 82
Dec 79
Nov 81
Jun 80
86
Oct 85
Aug 87
Mar 85
Nov 86
86
Argentina
73
Oct 83
Suriname
Chile5
Oct 77
70
88
Colombia
*Ecuador
May 82
Apr 79
May 86
Jan 84
Brazil
Uruguay4
Nov 82
71
Jan 85
Nov 84
Paraguay
Feb 83
Feb 88
*Peru
Venezuela
May 80
Dec 78
May 85
Dec 83
Total Population 94 million Total Population 174 million Total Population 108 million
* have become democracies since 1978
1 military government did not turn over control to civilians until 10 October 1982
2 Constituent Assembly elections are proposed for early 1984
3 elections for most offices held in November 1982; president to be elected indirectly in 1985
4 national elections and a plebescite on constitution are scheduled for November 1984
5 although democratic national elections are scheduled, the actions of the government to date raise questions (for NIO/LA)
about its willingness to permit genuine, open competition
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,.. _,..,_. _.. 7 March 1983
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CARIBBEAN BASIN: POPULATION AND COUNTRY STATISTICS
Country or Region Population (millions)
Mexico 73.8
Central America (6) 20.8
Guatemala 7.2
El Salvador 5.0
Honduras 3.7
Nicaragua 2.5
Costa Rica 2.3
Belize .1
0
Caribbean (14 independent countries 28.61
and 11 dependent entities)
Cuba 9.9
Haiti 6.05
Dominican Republic 6.01
Jamaica 2.2
Trinidad & Tobago 1 .1
Guyana .9
Suriname .35
Barbados .25
Bahamas .24
St. Lucia .12
St. Vincent .12
Grenada .11
Dominica .08
Antigua .08
Dependent Entities 1.1
South America (10) 252
Brazil 127.7
Argentina 28.6
Colombia 27.0
Peru 18.6
Venezuela 18.4
Chile 11.3
Ecuador 8.5
Bolivia - 5.6
Paraguay 3.3
Uruguay 3.0
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377.21 TOTAL
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? VI\VLqPL I ILU
9 March R3
OVERVIEW OF ECONOMIC AND SOCIAL IMPROVEMENTS IN CENTRAL AMERICA
1960-1978
Country
Population Adult Literacy
Life Expectancy
Economic Growth
(% Increase in Real GNP)
,
1960
1980
1960 1980
1960
190
1960-1977
, million
percent
COSTA RICA
1.2
2.2
NA
88
62
70.0
+5.7
EL SALVADOR
2,.4
4.7
49
62
50
63
+5.3
GUATEMALA
3.8
7.3
31.5
46
47
57
+5.7
HONDURAS
1.8
3.7
45
57
46
57
+7.8
PANAMA
1.1
1.9
73
78
62
70
+6.3
NICARAGUA
1.4
2.6
NA
57
47
55
+6.2
AVERAGE INCREASE FROM
1960 - 1980:
10 years
11%
*Represents 1980 or estimate of most recent year
**Since 1978, the combination of global economic problems and increased guerrilla violence
and terrorism have combined to bring about far lower economic growth.
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Chart from the NIO/LA commpendium
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'TABLE C
iAOYT11 IN THE ARMED EXTREME LEFT IN CENTRAL NCRICA 1960-1982 (U)
Armed
Extreme
Armed
Extreme
Armed
Extreme
Armed
Extreme
ft
Armed
Extreme
Left
Armed
Extreme
Left
Armed
Extreme
Left
Left
Left
Left
Le
TOTAL:
750
1.200
3.450
7.500
5.500
7.600
Nicaragua
ISO
300
Cur Targets
El Salvador
0
300
850
2.000
3.500
4.500
4.500
Guatemala
600
'CO
600
1.000
2.000
3.000
3.000
Honduras
0
0
sme
some
100
200
foes
I SUB-TOTAL:
T?
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