AGENDA FOR 18 NOVEMBER 1983 EXECUTIVE COMMITTEE MEETING: LONG-RANGE PLANNING: (1) EMPLACED SENSOR STUDY; (2) EXTERNAL ANALYSIS STUDY

• Document Type: CREST
• Collection: General CIA Records
• Document Number (FOIA) /ESDN (CREST): CIA-RDP85M00364R000500720005-6
• Release Decision: RIPPUB
• Original Classification: S
• Document Page Count: 8
• Document Creation Date: December 21, 2016
• Document Release Date: July 11, 2008
• Sequence Number: 5
• Publication Date: November 9, 1983
• Content Type: MEMO

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EXCOM 83-015
9 November 1983
MEMORANDUM FOR: Executive Committee Members
FROM: Executive Assistant to the Executive Director
SUBJECT: Agenda for 18 November 1983 Exe ee
Meeting: Long-Range Planning:
(2) External Analysis Study
An Executive Committee Meeting to discuss the Emplaced
Sensor Study and the External Analysis Study is scheduled for
Friday, 18 November, at 1600-1700 hours in the DCI Conference
Room. Attached for your review is a paper prepared by the DI on
external analysis.
Attachment:
As stated
cc: Inspector'General
Comptroller
EA/DDCI
Chief, Planning Staff
ALL PORTIONS OF THIS DOCUMENT
CLASSIFIED SECRET
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Distribution:
Original - ExDir (File: EXCOM Subject)
1-DDI
1 - DDA
1 - DDS&T
1 - DDO
1-IG
1 - EA/DDCI
1- Comptroller
1 - Chief, Planning Staff
1 - ER via ES
1 - EXCOM Agenda
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THE CIA EXTERNAL ANALYSIS PROGRAM:
- Executive Summary
August 1983
DDI Planning and
Management Staff
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Executive Summary
This paper presents the results of an in-depth review of the
CIA External Analysis Program. It addresses the rationale for
having this Program and for its apparent growth in recent
years. It delineates the roles and responsibilities of the many
organizational elements involved and identifies minor problems
associated with administration of the Program. More importantly,
this paper addresses specific aspects of the External Analysis
Program that are in need of some management attention or
procedural changes. Finally, this paper provides a response to
Congressional criticism concerning use of external analysis by
the Intelligence Community, to the extent that it might be
applicable to the CIA Program.
Principal Findings
Based on information acquired from well over 100 personal
interviews with CIA analysts, managers, and staff officers over a
five-month period, we have the following findings to report:
1. There is a sound rationale for the External Analysis
Program. In essence, it complements our internal analytic
capability by providing: expertise in a particular area or
discipline; access to sources or capabilities that we do not
have; or additional manpower that happens to be needed for a
certain task or for a short time.
2. Contrary to popular perceptions about the funding of
CIA external analysis, the Program is currently in a recovery
mode rather than being in a period of continuing growth. It is
now clear that the Agency actually suffered a significant drop,.
in terms of constant dollars, in its external analysis capability
during the FY 1979-82 period. (See Figure 1)
3. Real growth in external analysis over the next two
years appears to be justified because of the need to:
a. Remedy the combined effect of past austerity
programs and high inflation;
b. Meet rising demands from intelligence consumers
for coverage of new topics of concern and for
improved quality and timeliness; and
c. Take advantage of enhanced intelligence
collection capabilities.
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4. An earlier concept--that, as the Agency received and
filled more analyst positions, the need for external analysis
would gradually diminish--has proved to be a fallacy. Growing
consumer demands and enhanced collection capabilities meanwhile
have magnified the combined workload of our analysts and
contractors.
5. The Agency is especially dependent on its External
Analysis Program at the present time because of the time lag in
developing skilled analysts. Approximately 30 percent of our
analysts are still within their three-year probationary period of
employment with CIA. Indeed, some 50 percent of the DI
analytical corps has five years or less of Agency experience.
6. The more than 100 Contracting Officer's Technical'
Representatives (COTRs) in the Directorate of Intelligence (DI),
as a group, seem to be avidly interested in their external
analysis projects and serious about getting useful results for
the monies invested. But some are inexperienced and many are
uncomfortable with the amount of training they have received.
COTR training needs to be strengthened, regularized, and tailored
to DDI projects. (Recommendation No. 1)
7. The DDI Contract Team has proved to be a highly
effective mechanism for the procurement of.external analysis; but
the team will require some augmentation to keep pace with planned
expansion in the Program in FY 1984. (Recommendation No. 2)
__ 8. Increased attention is needed by some DDI components to
the completion of COTR inspection reports, the monitoring also of
non-commercial contracts, and to the evaluation of results from
external analysis projects. (Recommendations No. 3 and No. 8).
9. Participants in the DDI Quarterly Contract Review agree
on the need for a mechanism to provide directorate-level guidance
and oversight to the External Analysis Program, but a number of
problems with the current approach were surfaced. Opinions
differ on what changes are needed, however, and all of these were
considered in arriving at a recommended approach for-the DI.
(Recommendations No. 4 through No. 9)
10. Closer integration of external analysis with in-house
analytic research is needed. Examples of some progress in this
area are cited in this report. Plans by the Product Evaluation
Staff to convert from a calendar-year to fiscal-year cycle for
production of the DDI Research Program by FY 1985 should
facilitate office efforts toward this integration.
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12. Concrete examples of CIA coordination, communication,
and cooperation with other members of the Intelligence Community
were found to be numerous and varied from professional, working-
level contacts to more formal mechanisms. Notable progress also
has been made by the Intelligence Producers Council (IPC) in
recent months to establish a mechanism for the exchange of
information on external analysis contracts. But the Agency lacks
a comprehensive data base for tracking all active external
analysis contracts, for monitoring multiyear projects, or for
retrieving historical data on the Program. Such a data base is
needed for internal management as well as to fulfill the
commitment made through the IPC to share such information with
other producers of intelligence. (Recommendation No. 10)
Recommendations
Recommendation No. 1: That the DDI establish a systematic
training program for COTRs, with emphasis on the various types of
external research and analysis contracts being conducted by the
Directorate of Intelligence.
Recommendation No. 2: That the DDI request that the
Director of Logistics-assign afourth contract officer to the DDI
Contract Team beginning in FY 1984.
Recommendation No. 3: That a DDI Notice on the subjects of
COTR inspection reports and the need to monitor non-commercial
contracts be approved by the DDI for circulation to all DDI
components.
Recommendation No. 4: That the threshold for contract
proposals that have to be approved by the A/DDI before funds can
be committed be raised from the current level of $25,000 to
$50,000.
Recommendation No. 5: That the A/DDI continue to review
office proposals for external analysis on a quarterly basis but
rely more on staff support for advice in making routine funding
decisions than on formal meetings. (This would mean that a
formal meeting of the A/DDI with office directors to review
contract proposals would be called only when-actually necessary
-- i.e., during the first quarter of the year and on an ad hoc
basis when and if major interoffice or Directorate problems
arise. Individual office issues could be taken up during routine
bilateral meetings that the DDI and A/DDI have with each office
on a biweekly basis.)
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Recommendation No. 6: That a full-time External Analysis
Coordinator position be established within the DDI Planning and
Management Staff as the focal point for coordination of the DDI.
External Analysis Program.
Recommendation No. 7: That the DDI require individual
office directors to personally approve (i.e., sign off on) all
proposed projects from their respective offices. (While this
responsibility generally is understood, it may be worthwhile
reaffirming in view of the above-recommended changes in the
quarterly review process.)
Recommendation No. 8: That the DDI request each office
director to state by 1 October 1983 what mechanisms or procedures
will be employed, starting in FY 1984, to critique the results of
external research and analysis projects in his/her office and
report fully and candidly the results of such reviews annually to
the A/DDI.
Recommendation No. 9: That the DDI establish 1 August as
the annual deadline for external analysis projects to be
initiated (i.e., funds committed or RFPs sent out). Funds for
projects not initiated by that date would revert to the control
of the A/DDI, who would then consider new proposals for using
these funds, from any DDI office having unfunded requirements or
new initiatives that it wishes to pursue.
Recommendation No. 10: That the DDI authorize the Planning
and Management Staff to investigate the feasibility of developing
an on-line data base of external research and analysis
information.
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