CPPG MEETING: SOVIET ACTIVITIES IN NEAR EAST AND SOUTH WEST ASIA

• Document Type: CREST
• Collection: General CIA Records
• Document Number (FOIA) /ESDN (CREST): CIA-RDP85M00364R000600850015-0
• Release Decision: RIPPUB
• Original Classification: T
• Document Page Count: 7
• Document Creation Date: December 21, 2016
• Document Release Date: November 24, 2008
• Sequence Number: 15
• Publication Date: January 14, 1983
• Content Type: MEMO

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January 14, 1983
MEMORANDUM FOR THE HONORABLE LAWRENCE S. EAGLEBURGER
Under Secretary of State for Political Affairs.
SUBJECT: CPPG Meeting: Soviet Activities in Near East
and South West Asia (S)
The Soviet Union may have embarked on a more adventurous and activist
course in the Near East and South West Asia. The deployment of an
integrated air defense system in Syria, including SA-5s, can be seen
in this light. At the same time, there are indications of increased
Soviet presence in Libya, increased Soviet support for Iraq, height-
ened activity in Afghanistan and.the ever present possibility of a
move toward Iran. (TS)
These activities have serious implications for U.S. interests in the
region. Our response to Soviet behavior will be viewed by neutrals,
allies and adversaries*as an important sign of U.S. willingness to
oppose Soviet expansion in the region, and could affect their willing-
ness to support our other objectives. These developments require that
we prepare a counterstrategy and contingency plans to cope with
possible near-term Soviet moves. Our planning should include a full
spectrum of measures to deter and improve our readiness. (TS)
The CPPG will address this issue at a meeting in the White House
Situation Room, tentatively set for Thursday, January 20. In
preparation for the meeting, would you convene on a "close hold"
basis an Interdepartmental Group (IG) comprised of representatives
at the Assistant Secretary (or equivalent) level from the office of
the Vice President, the Department of Defense, the JCS, DCI and
NSC Staff to develop a paper on this issue. (S)
It is requested that the format at Tab A be used, as appropriate, in
preparing the paper, and that the paper specifically address the
issues indicated at Tab B. Copies should be delivered to CPPG prin-
cipals by noon Wednesday,,-January 19, 1983. CPPG principals will be
contacted by Oliver North, NSC Staff, regarding a specific time for
the meeting to discuss/decide the paper prepared by the IG. (C)
puty Assls to the President
for National Security Affairs
Attachment
Tab A - Format for CPPG Issue Paper
Tab B - CPPG Issues
T~13oo~,3
cc: Donald P. Gregg, V.P. Office Paul Gorman, OJ"CS
Fred C. Ikle, DoD Geoffrey Kemp, NSC
1obert M.'Gates, DCI Phillip Dur, NSC
Oliver L. North, NSC
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CPPG iSSUR'
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? SITUATION - (Nature of Potential Crisis)
? INTERESTS
U.S. Interests
Parties involved.
International and Domestic political concerns.
Soviet Interests
International
Domestic
Known -
Surnised-
Key Third Party Interests
Allied
Adversaries
Neutral/Non-Aligned
? Current U.S. Objectives.and Policy/Plans
Political
Economic
Military
International Agreements
Domestic/Legal Constraints
Informational/Media Policy and Plans
? Spectrum of U.S. Options
Intelligence Assets Available
Available
Political/Diplomatic; Economic; Military Options
,,,,J-Copies
CIA
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. Potential in, pact (Domestic/international)
Likely Effect On
... Local Situation
... Soviets
. Adversaries
.... Allies ? .
... -Non-Aligned/Neutrals
Resources/Assets Available
.. Political- Instruments
.. Economic Measures
Military Forces
... U.S.
... Allied
.. Covert Action
... DCI/Military/Third Party
Informational Capabilities (VOA, ICA, etc.)'
For A Recommended Course of Action:
Timing Considerations
Coordination Requirements
National
International
Implications of Decision
.. Depredation of Operational Capabilities
(Military, Intel, Political) Elsewhere
Political Impact
,., International
... Domestic.
.. Economic Impact
:.. Trade
Cash Flow
Media Asset Coordination
... Black
... White
Security, Requirements
International
... Domestic
Coordination
Legislative Coordination Requirements
Senate Sel. Committee on Intel (SSCI)
House Perm. Sel. Comm. on Intel (HPSCI)
Other? Q
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Issues for Consideration in CPPG Issue Paper
o Do we have adequate collection. assets in place to provide
adequate warning of Soviet moves in the region? If not,
what needs to be done?
o .What are the strategic consequences of the growing Soviet
o What preparatory diplomatic/military measures would we
presence in Syria (similar to.what we saw in Egypt during
the War of Attrition)?
What would the most telling strategic warning indicators
of impending Soviet military action against the Northern
provinces of Iran? How much unambiguous warning would we
have of such an attack?
want to consider in response to tenuous indication o
Soviet preparation for military action against Iran?
What military staging areas do we presently have access to
in order to reduce response time in the event of unambiguous
warning of Soviet, action in northern Iran?
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