REMARKS BY WILLIAM J. CASEY DIRECTOR OF CENTRAL INTELLIGENCE AT WESTMINSTER COLLEGE FULTON, MISSOURI

• Document Type: CREST
• Collection: General CIA Records
• Document Number (FOIA) /ESDN (CREST): CIA-RDP85M00364R000600980015-6
• Release Decision: RIFPUB
• Original Classification: K
• Document Page Count: 19
• Document Creation Date: December 20, 2016
• Sequence Number: 15
• Content Type: REPORT

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REMARKS BY WILLIAM J. CASEY
DIRECTOR OF CENTRAL INTELLIGENCE
AT
WESTMINSTER COLLEGE
FULTON, MISSOURI
SATURDAY, 29 OCTOBER 1983
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FINAL
WHAT WE FACE
PRESIDENT SAUNDERS, AMBASSADOR LUCE, HONORED GUESTS,
TEACHERS, PARENTS AND STUDENTS OF WESTMINSTER COLLEGE- I THANK
YOU MY DEAR FRIEND CLARE LUCE FOR THE GENEROSITY OF THAT ELOQUENT
INTRODUCTION- I AM HONORED AND GRATEFUL AT BECOMING AN HONORARY
ALUMNUS OF WESTMINSTER AND THE WARMTH OF YOUR WELCOME AND AT
THE HONOR OF BEING ASKED TO SPEAK HERE AT WESTMINSTER IN THE
GREEN LECTURE SERIES ON WHICH WINSTON CHURCHILL AND THOSE WHO
FOLLOWED HIM HAVE BEEN CONFERRED SUCH DISTINCTION-
I FEEL MORE AT HOME HERE THAN YOU MIGHT IMAGINE-
CAME HERE FROM THE CIA CAMPUS IN VIRGINIA, ACROSS THE POTOMAC
FROM WASHINGTON- CONTRARY TO THE SPY NOVELS AND MOVIES, MOST
OF OUR PEOPLE IN INTELLIGENCE SPEND THEIR TIME SITTING AT COMPUTERS
OR IN LIBRARIES EVALUATING AND ANALYZING INFORMATION. TODAY'S
JAMES BONDS HAVE GRADUATE DEGREES AND ARE MORE CONVERSANT IN
ECONOMICS, SCIENCE, ENGINEERING, DEMOGRAPHY AND HISTORY THAN
WITH GAMBLING CASINOS, FAST CARS, SMOKEY BARS OR RUN-DOWN HOTELS
AROUND THE WORLD. THEY DEVELOP AND USE TECHNICAL MARVELS AND
APPLY THE FINEST SCHOLARSHIP TO GATHER, ANALYZE AND INTERPRET
FACTS AND RELATIONSHIPS FROM EVERY CORNER OF THE EARTH AND BEYOND-
THE MOST DIFFICULT TASK IN INTELLIGENCE IS FORECASTING
DEVELOPMENTS A FEW MONTHS OR YEARS AHEAD- WINSTON CHURCHILL HAD
AN UNCANNY, PERHAPS UNIQUE, CAPACITY TO LOOK INTO THE HEARTS AND
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MINDS OF CIVILIZATIONS ADVERSARIES AND ACCURATELY FORETELL
THEIR INTENTIONS YEARS AND EVEN DECADES AHEAD. HE WAS A PROPHET
ALONE IN THE EARLY 1930s AND, MORE SIGNIFICANTLY, HE WAS STILL
A PROPHET NEARLY ALONE IN HIS VISION OF RUSSIA HERE AT WESTMINSTER
COLLEGE IN 1946.
ON THAT OCCASION, HE DEFINED A CHALLENGE WITH WHICH MY
GENERATION HAS STRUGGLED FOR A THIRD OF A CENTURY AND WHICH
THE GENERATION NOW AT WESTMINSTER MUST ALSO FACE. LISTEN TO
HIS WORDS:
"FROM STETTIN IN THE BALTIC TO TRIESTE IN THE ADRIATIC,
AN IRON CURTAIN HAS DESCENDED ACROSS THE CONTINENT.... THE
COMMUNIST PARTIES WHICH WERE VERY SMALL IN ALL THREE EASTERN
STATES OF EUROPE, HAVE BEEN RAISED TO PRE-EMINENCE AND POWER FAR
BEYOND THEIR NUMBERS AND ARE SEEKING EVERYWHERE TO OBTAIN
TOTALITARIAN CONTROL."
HE WENT ON TO SAY:
"IN A GREAT NUMBER OF COUNTRIES, FAR FROM THE RUSSIAN
FRONTIERS AND THROUGHOUT THE WORLD, COMMUNIST FIFTH COLUMNS ARE
ESTABLISHED AND WORK IN COMPLETE UNITY AND ABSOLUTE OBEDIENCE TO
THE DIRECTIONS THEY RECEIVE FROM THE COMMUNIST CENTRE."
SPEAKING OF THE AMERICAN ATOMIC BOMB AND THE PERIL THAT
WOULD EXIST IF A COMMUNIST STATE HAD THAT CAPABILITY, HE SAID:
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"THE FEAR OF THEM ALONE MIGHT EASILY HAVE BEEN USED
TO ENFORCE TOTALITARIAN SYSTEMS UPON THE FREE DEMOCRATIC WORLD,
WITH CONSEQUENCES APPALLING TO HUMAN IMAGINATION-"
ALL THIS, LESS THAN A YEAR AFTER WE HAD WON THE LONG
STRUGGLE AGAINST HITLER WITH RUSSIA BY OUR SIDE, WAS NEW AND
STARTLING TO THE AMERICAN PEOPLE- CHURCHILL ALLOWED HIMSELF A
CRY OF ANGUISH THAT AGAIN HIS WARNING WOULD GO UNHEEDED:
"THE LAST TIME I SAW IT ALL COMING, AND CRIED ALOUD TO
MY OWN FELLOW COUNTRYMEN AND TO THE WORLD BUT --- NO ONE WOULD
LISTEN AND ONE BY ONE WE WERE ALL SUCKED INTO THE AWFUL WHIRLPOOL-"
HOW MUCH MORE ALARMED WOULD CHURCHILL BE IF HE LOOKED AROUND
THE WORLD TODAY AND SAW HOW THE SOVIETS HAVE GROWN IN STRENGTH
AND HOW FAR THEY HAVE EXTENDED THEIR POWER AND INFLUENCE BEYOND
THE IRON CURTAIN HE SO APTLY LABELED. HE WOULD SEE SOVIET POWER:
--IN VIETNAM ALONG CHINA'S SOUTHERN BORDER AND ASTRIDE
THE SEA LANES WHICH BRING JAPAN'S OIL FROM THE PERSIAN GULF;
--IN AFGHANISTAN, 500 MILES CLOSER TO THE WARM WATER
PORTS OF THE INDIAN OCEAN AND TO THE STRAITS OF HORMUZ THROUGH
WHICH COMES THE OIL ESSENTIAL TO WESTERN EUROPE;
ON THE HORN OF AFRICA OVERLOOKING THE PASSAGEWAY OF
SUEZ WHICH CONNECTS THE MEDITERRANEAN SEA AND THE INDIAN OCEAN;
IN SOUTHERN AFRICA, RICH IN MINERALS, WHICH THE
INDUSTRIAL NATIONS MUST HAVE;
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--AND IN THE CARIBBEAN AND CENTRAL AMERICA ON THE VERY
DOORSTEP OF THE UNITED STATES-
AND WHAT WOULD CHURCHILL THINK OF THE CATACLYSMIC EVENTS IN
LEBANON AND GRENADA DURING THE LAST SEVEN DAYS. FOR REASONS
WHICH YOU WILL UNDERSTAND, I AM NOT IN A POSITION TO GO INTO
IN ANY DETAIL BEYOND WHAT YOU HAVE LEARNED FROM THE MEDIA, AND
LIKE ANY GOOD REPORTER I'M PREPARED TO GO TO JAIL TO PROTECT
MY SOURCES. BUT I WILL HAZARD AN ATTEMPT TO RELATE THE EVENTS
TO WHAT CHURCHILL CALLED THE SINEWS OF PEACE WHEN HE SPOKE HERE.
THE DISASTER IN LEBANON WOULD HAVE REMINDED HIM OF THE AWFUL
PRICE THAT CAN BE LEARNED TO MAINTAIN PEACE. THE RESPONSE OF
BOTH OUR MARINES IN LEBANON AND THE FLOOD OF NEW RECRUITS HERE
WOULD HAVE REMINDED HIM OF THE COURAGE AND SPIRIT HIS COUNTRYMEN
DEMONSTRATED WHEN THEY STOOD ALONE AGAINST THE FORCES OF DARKNESS
IN EUROPE-
HE WOULD HAVE BEEN GRATIFIED TO SEE IN GRENADA A FREE NATION
ACT TO CHECK THE POTENTIAL COMMUNIST AGGRESSION WHICH HE WARNED
AGAINST HERE AS HE HAD FAILED TO GET HIS OWN COUNTRY TO ACT
AGAINST THE FASCISM OF THE THIRTIES. HE WOULD REJOICE THAT FOR
THE FIRST TIME THE WEST HAS RESTORED TO A COLONY OF THE SOVIET
EMPIRE THE FREEDOM WHICH HAD BEEN STOLEN FROM IT-
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TODAY, WE ARE AS A NATION CHALLENGED ON MANY LEVELS- THE
MOST POTENTIALLY DEVASTATING THREAT COMES FROM THE NUCLEAR MISSILES
WHICH ARE AIMED AT US. THE SECOND COMES FROM THE LAND, AIR AND
SEA FORCES OF THE WARSAW PACT NATIONS IN EUROPE WHICH CONTINUE
TO GAIN ON NATO FORCES IN QUANTITY AND QUALITY. THE THIRD IS
THE GROWING ABILITY OF THE SOVIETS TO PROJECT POWER OVER LONG
DISTANCES, AN ABILITY VIVIDLY DEMONSTRATED BY THEIR USE OF
AIR AND SEA TRANSPORT TO LINK UP ADVANCED SOVIET WEAPONS WITH
CUBAN TROOPS THOUSANDS OF MILES FROM THEIR BORDERS- WE SAW
THEM DO THIS FIRST IN ANGOLA AND AGAIN IN ETHIOPIA-
THE FOURTH LEVEL OF THREAT IS SOMETHING WE MIGHT CALL
CREEPING IMPERIALISM. THE KREMLIN USES A VARIETY OF TECHNIQUES
TO EXPLOIT ECONOMIC, RACIAL AND RELIGIOUS DIVISIONS AROUND THE
WORLD AND TO DESTABILIZE AND 'SUBVERT OTHER COUNTRIES BY FOSTERING
INTERNAL INSURGENCY. THE SOVIET UNION THEN SUPPLIES WEAPONS,
TRAINING AND ADVISORS TO BRING IN RADICAL GOVERNMENTS WHICH WILL
EXTEND SOVIET POWER AND FURTHER SOVIET INTERESTS-
IT IS TO THE STRATEGIC NUCLEAR THREAT AND THAT OF CONVENTIONAL
FORCES IN EUROPE THAT WE DEVOTE MOST OF OUR CONCERN AND COMMIT
MOST OF OUR DEFENSE RESOURCES- YET, THE APPALLING DEVASTATION
WHICH WOULD RESULT FROM THE USE OF THESE WEAPONS IS SUCH THAT
THIS THREAT IS LESS LIKELY TO MATERIALIZE THAN THAT OF AGGRESSIVE
PROTECTION OF POWER AND INTRUSION INTO OTHER COUNTRIES-
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ALL OF THESE THREATS ARE INTERRELATED, AND THE MEASURES
NEEDED TO DEAL WITH THEM ARE CLOSELY INTERCONNECTED- WE MUST
MAINTAIN A STRATEGIC POSTURE THAT CONVINCES THE SOVIETS THAT THE
RISK OF ANY ATTACK ON THE US OR ITS ALLIES FAR OUTWEIGHS ANY
POSSIBLE BENEFITS. BUT MORE THAN THAT IS NECESSARY. THE GROWTH
IN OVERALL SOVIET MILITARY POWER, UNMATCHED BY THE WEST OVER THE
LAST 15 TO 20 YEARS, HAS ENCOURAGED THEM TO TRY INTIMIDATION TO
SPLIT OUR ALLIES AWAY FROM US AND UNDERMINE OUR CREDIBILITY- IF
THE ADVERSE SHIFT IN THE STRATEGIC BALANCE OF RECENT YEARS IS
PERMITTED TO GO FAR ENOUGH, IT WILL BECOME EASIER FOR THE SOVIETS
TO EXPLOIT SOFT SPOTS AROUND THE WORLD. IT WILL SEEM TO HAVE
BECOME LESS RISKY FOR THE SOVIETS TO INVOLVE THEMSELVES IN SMALLER
CONFLICTS ESPECIALLY IN LESS DEVELOPED PARTS OF THE WORLD.
TO FACE THESE THREATS EFFECTIVELY WE HAVE TO DEAL WITH THE
SOVIET UNION NOT AS WE WOULD LIKE IT BUT AS IT IS. WE LIVE ON
THE SAME PLANET, WE HAVE TO GO ON SHARING IT. WE MUST THEREFORE
STAND READY TO TALK TO THE SOVIET LEADERSHIP. THE CHARACTER OF
MODERN WEAPONS, NOT ONLY NUCLEAR BUT CONVENTIONAL, MAKES THIS
DIALOGUE INDISPENSABLE. BUT WE MUST RESOLVE NOT TO HAND AN
ADVANTAGE TO THE OTHER SIDE, TO DO NOTHING THAT WOULD EITHER
RISK THE CREDIBILITY OF THE WESTERN ALLIANCE OR UNSETTLE THE
MILITARY BALANCE ON WHICH PEACE ITSELF DEPENDS-
WE MUST RECOGNIZE, TOO, THAT THE SOVIETS WILL EXPLOIT ARMS
CONTROL TALKS AND AGREEMENTS TO SLOW DOWN IMPROVEMENTS IN WESTERN
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MILITARY CAPABILITIES WHILE THEY CONTINUE TO BUILD UP AND
MODERNIZE THEIR OWN FORCES. THUS FAR THEY HAVE SUCCEEDED IN
THIS OBJECTIVE. THEY HAVE NEGOTIATED CEILINGS WHICH PERMIT
THEIR CONTINUED MILITARY BUILDUP OR THEY HAVE AVOIDED RESTRICTIONS
ON NEW WEAPONS THEY INTEND TO BUILD. THE SOVIET UNION HAS
BEEN UNWILLING TO FOREGO ANY OF ITS MAJOR MILITARY PROGRAMS IN
ORDER TO INDUCE US TO DROP OUR OWN PROGRAMS-
NEVERTHELESS, WE SHOULD PERSIST IN ARMS NEGOTIATIONS IN
ORDER TO CONTAIN THIS COMPETITION- WE MUST CONTINUE TO HOPE
THAT AT SOME POINT THERE WILL BE A CHANGE IN SOVIET PERCEPTIONS
AND BEHAVIOR-
HERE AT WESTMINSTER, CHURCHILL WONDERED:
"NOBODY KNOWS WHAT SOVIET RUSSIA AND ITS COMMUNIST
INTERNATIONAL ORGANIZATION INTENDS TO DO IN THE IMMEDIATE FUTURE,
OR WHAT. ARE THE LIMITS, IF ANY, TO THEIR EXPANSIVE AND PROSELYTIZING
TENDENCIES-"
A MONTH AFTER CHURCHILL MADE HIS SPEECH HERE AT WESTMINSTER
COLLEGE, HIS QUESTION WAS ECHOED IN MOSCOW. THE NEW US AMBASSADOR
TO RUSSIA, GENERAL WALTER BEDELL SMITH, MET WITH STALIN IN THE
KREMLIN TO ASK, "WHAT DOES THE SOVIET UNION WANT AND HOW FAR IS
RUSSIA GOING TO GO?" STALIN ACCUSED THE US Of TRYING TO THWART
RUSSIA AND DECLARED THAT CHURCHILL'S SPEECH HERE AT FULTON WAS
AN UNFRIENDLY ACT. ASKED AGAIN, "HOW FAR IS RUSSIA.GOING TO
GO?" STALIN COOLLY REPLIED, "WE'RE NOT GOING MUCH FURTHER-"
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WE KNOW TODAY THAT RUSSIA HAS GONE A LOT FURTHER- IT IS
ESSENTIAL THAT WE UNDERSTAND HOW THIS WAS ACCOMPLISHED. DURING
THE MID TO LATE 1970s, THE SOVIETS UNFURLED A NEW STRATEGY ON
A NEW FRONT--THE THIRD WORLD. AND THEIR STRATEGY HAS WORKED-
THE MOST EFFECTIVE TECHNIQUE EMPLOYED IN THIS STRATEGY
HAS BEEN THE USE OF PROXIES. THIS IS NOT EXACTLY NEW IN HISTORY-
THE ROMANS USED MEN FROM CONQUERED COUNTRIES TO FIGHT THEIR
ENEMIES. LATER, SWISS AND GERMAN MERCENARIES WERE AVAILABLE TO
THE HIGHEST BIDDER ALL OVER EUROPE. THE BRITISH ARMY HAD ITS
GHURKAS AND THE FRENCH THEIR FOREIGN LEGION. BUT THE SOVIETS
USE THE CUBANS, EAST GERMANS, LIBYANS AND VIETNAMESE IN A QUITE
DIFFERENT ROLE-
THESE PROXIES ACT IN PEACE AS WELL AS WAR. THEIR ROLE IS
AS MUCH POLITICAL AS MILITARY. EAST GERMANS IN AFRICA, CUBANS
IN LATIN AMERICA, VIETNAMESE IN ASIA HAVE A CERTAIN LEGITIMACY
AND FREEDOM FROM IMPERIALIST TAINT THAT SOVIET TROOPS WOULD NOT
ENJOY. DIFFERENT PROXIES HAVE SPECIALIZED FUNCTIONS- OF THE
MORE THAN 40,000 CUBANS IN AFRICA, 80 PERCENT OF THE SOLDIERS
ARE ON ACTIVE DUTY- VIETNAM, WITH THE FOURTH LARGEST ARMY IN
THE WORLD, KEEPS CHINA AND THAILAND WORRIED AS IT SOLIDIFIES ITS
POSITION IN KAMPUCHEA- MOST OF THE THOUSANDS OF EAST GERMAN
EXPERTS IN AFRICA OR LATIN AMERICA ARE ACTIVE IN ADMINISTRATION,
EDUCATION, INDUSTRY, HEALTH, AND, ABOVE ALL, THE SECURITY FORCES
WHICH PROTECT THE REGIMES FROM THE PEOPLE-
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LIBYA, CUBA, SOUTH YEMEN, EAST GERMANY, AND BULGARIA OPERATE
CAMPS FOR TRAINING TERRORISTS AND INSURGENTS WHO ARE THEN SENT
AROUND THE WORLD. THE LIBYANS HAVE HELPED PROMOTE SOVIET FOREIGN
POLICY GOALS THROUGH THEIR INVASION OF CHAD AND THROUGH THEIR
ASSISTANCE TO REBELS IN THE PHILIPPINES, MOROCCO AND CENTRAL
AMERICA. LET US ALSO NOT FORGET THEIR COUPS, PLOTS AND
ASSASSINATION ATTEMPTS AGAINST THE LEADERS OF PRO-WESTERN COUNTRIES,
NOR THEIR FINANCIAL HELP TO SO-CALLED "LIBERATION" GROUPS AND
TERRORIST ORGANIZATIONS IN THE MIDDLE EAST AND AT LEAST TEN
COUNTRIES IN LATIN AMERICA-
GRENADA PROVIDES A VIVID ILLUSTRATION OF HOW THE SOVIETS
PRACTICE CREEPING IMPERIALISM BY PROXY. EARLY REPORTS INDICATE
THAT, IN ADDITION TO THE CUBANS ON THE ISLAND, THERE WERE ON
THE ISLAND SOVIETS, NORTH KOREANS, LIBYANS, EAST GERMANS AND
BULGARIANS WORKING TOGETHER TO ESTABLISH A MILITARY BASE IN
THE EASTERN CARIBBEAN. THIS SHOULD COME AS NO SURPRISE- IT
IS A MICROCOSM OF NICARAGUA. FOR MORE THAN TWO YEARS MANAGUA
HAS BEEN AN INTERNATIONAL CITY WITH CUBANS, SOVIETS, EAST GERMANS,
VIETNAMESE, NORTH KOREANS, BULGARIANS, LIBYANS AND PLO ELEMENTS
WORKING TOGETHER TO FASTEN A TOTALITARIAN GRIP ON NICARAGUA,
TO MAKE NICARAGUA MILITARILY DOMINANT OVER ITS NEIGHBORS AND TO
PROJECT REVOLUTIONARY VIOLENCE INTO EL SALVADOR, HONDURAS,
COSTA RICA AND GUATEMALA-
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WITH THE EXCEPTION OF THE ALLENDE GOVERNMENT IN CHILE,
COMMITTED PRO-SOVIET GOVERNMENTS HAVE NEVER COME TO POWER
THROUGH PEACEFUL MEANS BUT ALWAYS THROUGH VIOLENCE, COUPS AND
CIVIL WARS. THE SOVIETS RECOGNIZE THAT IN MOST THIRD WORLD
COUNTRIES POWER RESTS WITH THE MILITARY. THEY HAVE FOCUSED,
THEREFORE, ON EITHER WINNING OVER THE OFFICERS' CORPS OR HELPING
TO OVERTHROW AND REPLACE THEM WITH OTHERS MORE LIKELY TO DO
THEIR BIDDING- HAVING FOR DECADES DENOUNCED THE "MERCHANTS
OF DEATH," THE SOVIETS HAVE BECOME THE WORLD'S LEADING SUPPLIER
OF ARMS. OVER RECENT YEARS, THEIR ARMS SHIPMENTS TO THE THIRD
WORLD HAVE BEEN FOUR TIMES GREATER THAN THEIR ECONOMIC ASSISTANCE.
THIS HAS MADE THIRD WORLD ARMS RECIPIENTS DEPENDENT ON THE SOVIETS
FOR THOUSANDS OF ADVISORS, FOR SPARE PARTS, AND FOR CONTINUED
LOGISTICAL SUPPORT.
YET THE SOVIET UNION IS CRIPPLED. IT IS CRIPPLED IN HAVING
ONLY A MILITARY DIMENSION. IT HAS NOT BEEN ABLE TO DELIVER
ECONOMIC, POLITICAL OR CULTURAL BENEFITS AT HOME OR ABROAD.
WITHOUT EXCEPTION, THE ECONOMIC RECORD OF THE COUNTRIES WHICH
HAVE COME UNDER SOVIET INFLUENCE HAS RANGED FROM POOR TO VERY
POOR. ECONOMIC PROGRESS HAS BEEN FAR GREATER IN THE FREE AREAS
OF EAST AND SOUTHEAST ASIA, IN CENTRAL AMERICA UNTIL DISRUPTION
BY SOVIET AND CUBAN-BACKED INSURGENCY, IN THE IVORY COAST AND
OTHER NON-SOCIALIST COUNTRIES IN AFRICA.
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MILITARY SUPPORT CAN ESTABLISH A RELATIONSHIP BETWEEN A
SUPERPOWER AND A SMALL COUNTRY. BUT IN THE LONG RUN IT IS
ECONOMIC, FINANCIAL, SCIENTIFIC, TECHNICAL AND CULTURAL EXCHANGES
WHICH ATTRACT, DELIVER BENEFITS, AND MAINTAIN CLOSE RELATIONSHIPS
WITH THIRD WORLD COUNTRIES. THE SOVIET UNION CANNOT COMPETE IN
THESE AREAS. THIS FORCES THE SOVIETS TO RELY, ON SUBVERSION AND
DISRUPTION OF STABLE POLITICAL AND ECONOMIC RELATIONSHIPS TO
WEAKEN WESTERN RELATIONSHIPS AND CREATE A CONDITION OF CHAOS IN
WHICH THEIR SURROGATES AND INTERNAL ALLIES CAN SEIZE POWER.
IN THIS STRATEGY OF DISRUPTION, THE AREAS MOST HEAVILY
TARGETED ARE CLEARLY THE MIDDLE EAST AND CENTRAL AMERICA. BY
FANNING THE FLAME OF CONFLICT BETWEEN ARAB AND ISRAELI, SUNNI
AND SHIA, RADICAL AND MODERATE ARAB, BY PLAYING BOTH SIDES
AGAINST THE MIDDLE IN THE IRAN-IRAQ WAR, AND BY NAILING DOWN A
MILITARY POSITION IN SYRIA AND AFGHANISTAN, THE SOVIETS HOPE TO
KEEP THE MIDDLE EAST IN TURMOIL AND THE OIL RESOURCES ON WHICH
THE WESTERN WORLD DEPENDS UNDER CONSTANT THREAT. THE OTHER
SENSITIVE TARGET IS THE CARIBBEAN AND CENTRAL AMERICA- SOVIET
POWER IS ALREADY SOLIDLY ESTABLISHED IN CUBA AND NICARAGUA.
THIS THREATENS THE PANAMA CANAL AND THE SEA LANES OF THE CARIBBEAN-
INSURGENCIES AND REVOLUTIONARY VIOLENCE HAVE BEEN UNLEASHED TO
TOPPLE GOVERNMENTS IN EL SALVADOR, HONDURAS AND GUATEMALA.
SINCE WORLD WAR II, WE HAVE SEEN THAT COUNTRIES FALLING
UNDER COMMUNIST CONTROL PROMPTLY PRODUCE A HEAVY FLOW OF REFUGEES--
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PEOPLE VOTING WITH THEIR FEET TO GO ELSEWHERE- MILLIONS OF
REFUGEES HAVE LEFT EASTERN EUROPE AND CUBA SINCE THE COMMUNISTS
TOOK OVER. HUNDREDS OF THOUSANDS OF PEOPLE HAVE PUT THEIR LIVES
AT STAKE TO ESCAPE FROM INDOCHINA IN LEAKING SHIPS- MORE THAN
ONE-FOURTH OF THE POPULATION OF AFGHANISTAN HAS FLED TO PAKISTAN
AND IRAN. THE FLOW OF REFUGEES FROM CENTRAL AMERICA IS ALREADY
UNDER WAY-
A CUBANIZATION OF CENTRAL AMERICA WOULD QUICKLY CREATE NEW
REFUGEES BY THE MILLIONS. THE SOVIETS CAN CALCULATE THAT A
GREATLY INCREASED MILITARY THREAT ON OUR SOUTHERN FLANK AND
THE INTERNAL DISRUPTION THAT WOULD RESULT IF MILLIONS OF LATIN
AMERICANS WALKED NORTH WOULD DISTRACT THE UNITED STATES FROM
DEALING WITH WHAT COULD BE MORE LETHAL THREATS ELSEWHERE IN THE
WORLD. AT THE SAME TIME, AMERICAN INFLUENCE IN CENTRAL AMERICA
WILL BE DAMAGED IF THE WEST IS UNABLE TO SENSITIVELY AND
CONSTRUCTIVELY ASSIST THE PEOPLE OF CENTRAL AMERICA AND MEXICO
IN DEFENDING THEMSELVES AS WELL AS SOLVING THEIR SOCIAL AND
ECONOMIC PROBLEMS ON THEIR OWN TERMS-
THE US NEEDS A REALISTIC COUNTER-STRATEGY- MANY COMPONENTS
OF THAT STRATEGY ARE FAMILIAR, BUT THEY MUST BE APPROACHED AND
LINKED IN NEW WAYS. THE MEASURES NEEDED T-0 ADDRESS THE SOVIET
CHALLENGE IN THE. THIRD WORLD HAVE THE ADDITIONAL APPEAL THAT THEY
ALSO REPRESENT A SENSIBLE AMERICAN APPROACH TO THE THIRD WORLD
WHETHER OR NOT THE USSR IS INVOLVED:
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1- WE HAVE TOO OFTEN NEGLECTED OUR FRIENDS AND NEUTRALS
IN AFRICA, THE MIDDLE EAST, LATIN AMERICA AND ASIA UNTIL THEY
BECAME A PROBLEM OR WERE THREATENED BY DEVELOPMENTS HOSTILE TO
OUR INTERESTS. THESE COUNTRIES NOW BUY 40% OF OUR EXPORTS; THAT
ALONE IS REASON ENOUGH TO PAY GREATER ATTENTION TO THEIR PROBLEMS
BEFORE OUR ATTENTION IS COMMANDED BY COUPS, INSURGENCIES OR
INSTABILITY. THE PRIORITY OF LESS DEVELOPED COUNTRIES IN OUR
OVERALL FOREIGN POLICY NEEDS TO BE RAISED AND SUSTAINED-
2. WE MUST BE PREPARED TO DEMAND FIRMLY BUT TACTFULLY
AND PRIVATELY THAT OUR FRIENDS OBSERVE CERTAIN STANDARDS OF
BEHAVIOR WITH REGARD TO BASIC HUMAN RIGHTS- IT IS REQUIRED BY
OUR OWN PRINCIPLES AND ESSENTIAL TO POLITICAL SUPPORT IN THE US-
MOREOVER, WE HAVE TO BE WILLING TO TALK STRAIGHT TO THOSE WE
WOULD HELP ABOUT ISSUES THEY MUST ADDRESS TO BLOCK FOREIGN
EXPLOITATION OF THEIR PROBLEMS'-ISSUES SUCH AS LAND REFORM,
CORRUPTION AND THE LIKE- WE NEED TO SHOW HOW THE SOVIETS HAVE
EXPLOITED SUCH VULNERABILITIES ELSEWHERE TO MAKE CLEAR THAT WE
AREN'T PREACHING OUT OF CULTURAL ARROGANCE BUT ARE MAKING
RECOMMENDATIONS BASED ON EXP-ERIENCE-
3. WE NEED TO BE READY TO HELP OUR FRIENDS DEFEND
THEMSELVES- WE CAN TRAIN THEM IN COUNT-ERINSURGENCY TACTICS AND
UPGRADE THEIR COMMUNICATIONS, MOBILITY, POLICE AND INTELLIGENCE
CAPABILITIES- WE NEED CHANGES IN OUR FOREIGN-MILITARY-SALES
LAWS TO PERMIT THE US TO PROVIDE ARMS FOR SELF-DEFENSE MORE
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QUICKLY- WE ALSO NEED TO CHANGE OUR MILITARY PROCUREMENT POLICIES
SO AS TO HAVE STOCKS OF CERTAIN BASIC KINDS OF WEAPONS MORE
READILY AVAILABLE-
4? WE MUST FIND A WAY TO MOBILIZE AND USE OUR GREATEST
ASSET IN THE THIRD WORLD--PRIVATE BUSINESS. FEW IN THE THIRD WORLD
WISH TO ADOPT THE SOVIET ECONOMIC SYSTEM. NEITHER WE NOR THE
SOVIETS CAN OFFER UNLIMITED OR EVEN LARGE-SCALE ECONOMIC ASSISTANCE
TO THE LESS DEVELOPED COUNTRIES- INVESTMENT IS THE KEY TO ECONOMIC
SUCCESS IN THE THIRD WORLD AND WE, OUR NATO ALLIES AND JAPAN
NEED TO DEVELOP A COMMON STRATEGY TO PROMOTE INVESTMENT AND
SUPPORT IT WITH KNOW HOW IN THE THIRD WORLD. THE SOVIETS ARE
HELPLESS TO COMPETE WITH PRIVATE CAPITAL IN THESE COUNTRIES-
WITHOUT A SUSTAINED, CONSTANT POLICY APPLIED OVER A NUMBER
OF YEARS, WE CANNOT COUNTER THE RELENTLESS PRESSURE OF THE USSR
IN THE THIRD WORLD- IT IS PAST TIME FOR THE AMERICAN GOVERNMENT"
EXECUTIVE BRANCH AND CONGRESS--TO TAKE THE SOVIET CHALLENGE IN
THE THIRD WORLD SERIOUSLY AND TO DEVELOP A BROAD, INTEGRATED
STRATEGY FOR COUNTERING IT. THE LESS-DEVELOPED NATIONS OF THE
WORLD WILL BE THE PRINCIPAL US-SOVIET BATTLEGROUND FOR MANY
YEARS TO COME.
THERE IS ALSO A POLITICAL WEAPON WE CAN DEPLOY AROUND THE
WORLD WHICH IS MORE POWERFUL THAN THE SOVIETS' MILITARY ARSENAL
AND SUBVERSIVE BAG OF TRICKS. ALL THE PEOPLE OF THE WORLD ON
BOTH SIDES OF THE IRON CURTAIN REMAIN UNITED AS THEY WERE IN
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CHURCHILL'S DAY ON ONE ISSUE--THEIR ABHORRENCE OF DICTATORSHIP
IN ALL ITS FORMS, MOST PARTICULARLY TOTALITARIANISM AND THE
TERRIBLE INHUMANITIES IT HAS CAUSED IN OUR TIME-'THE GREAT PURGE,
AUSCHWITZ AND DACHAU, THE GULAG, AND CAMBODIA. THEY HAVE CERTAINLY
NOTED IT WAS NOT THE DEMOCRACIES THAT INVADED AFGHANISTAN OR
SUPPRESSED POLISH SOLIDARITY OR USED CHEMICAL'AND TOXIC WARFARE
IN AFGHANISTAN AND SOUTHEAST ASIA-
AROUND THE WORLD TODAY, THE DEMOCRATIC REVOLUTION IS
GATHERING NEW STRENGTH, IN ASIA, IN AFRICA, IN OUR OWN HEMISPHERE-
IN LATIN AMERICA, 18 OF 34 COUNTRIES HAVE FREELY-ELECTED
GOVERNMENTS AND 6 ARE WORKING TOWARD DEMOCRATIZATION, ALTOGETHER
REPRESENTING 70% OF THE PEOPLE OF THAT CONTINENT- IN THE
UNITED NATIONS, 8 OF THE 10 DEVELOPING NATIONS WHICH HAVE JOINED
THAT BODY IN THE PAST FIVE YEARS ARE DEMOCRACIES- WE MUST FOSTER
THE INFRASTRUCTURE-OF DEMOCRACY, THE SYSTEM OF A FREE PRESS,
UNIONS, POLITICAL PARTIES, UNIVERSITIES, WHICH ALLOWS A PEOPLE
TO CHOOSE ITS OWN WAY TO DEVELOP ITS OWN CULTURE, TO RECONCILE
ITS OWN DIFFERENCES THROUGH PEACEFUL MEANS-
FINALLY, IF WE ARE TO WIN THE STRUGGLE FOR THE WORLD'S
FREEDOM AND LIBERTY, WE NEED TO REESTABLISH WHAT SIR JOHN PLUMB
DESCRIBED SO ELOQUENTLY AS THE TRUE DOMINION OF HISTORY WHEN HE
SPOKE ON THIS CAMPUS AT LAST MAY'S KEMPER LECTURE- IT IS IN
THE TRUE STUDY OF OUR HISTORY AND OUR VALUES THAT WE CAN
ESTABLISH THE SAME HISTORICAL CONFIDENCE IN OUR SOCIETY THAT
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WINSTON CHURCHILL HAD IN HIS AND WHICH ENABLED HIM TO SPEAK SO
ELOQUENTLY TO HIS PEOPLE AND THEY TO RESPOND SO WHOLEHEARTEDLY-
IT IS YOUR CHALLENGE, AS OUR FUTURE LEADERS, TO BRING A PROPER
SENSE OF OUR DESTINY TO OUR AFFAIRS AND THAT CAN ONLY COME THROUGH
A KNOWLEDGE OF OUR PAST AND A FEELING FOR THE HERITAGE WHICH IS
OURS TO PRESERVE AND PASS ON. AND I CAN IMAGINE NO SETTING AND
NO ATMOSPHERE MORE CONDUCIVE TO KINDLING AND DEVELOPING THAT
LEARNING AND THAT SENTIMENT THAN THE ONE WHICH BLESSES YOU
IN THESE SURROUNDINGS AND IN THE TRADITION OF YOUR CHALLENGE-
PRESIDENT KENNEDY SOME TWENTY YEARS AGO OBSERVED THAT WE
WERE INVOLVED IN A LONG TWILIGHT STRUGGLE- WINSTON CHURCHILL'S
SPEECH HERE AT WESTMINSTER COLLEGE MARKED THE INITIAL RECOGNITION
BY THE WEST THAT THE STRUGGLE HAD BEGUN- CHURCHILL ALSO OBSERVED
THAT, "WHAT WE HAVE TO CONSIDER HERE TODAY WHILE TIME REMAINS,
IS THE PERMANENT PREVENTION OF WAR AND THE ESTABLISHMENT OF
CONDITIONS OF FREEDOM AND DEMOCRACY AS RAPIDLY AS POSSIBLE IN
ALL COUNTRIES-"
IT IS NOW NEARING 40 YEARS SINCE WINSTON CHURCHILL SPOKE
HERE. THE THOUGHT THAT I WOULD LEAVE WITH YOU IS THAT THE
STRUGGLE WITH WHAT THE SOVIET UNION REPRESENTS IS NOT CONFINED
TO CHURCHILL'S GENERATION, OR TO MY GENERATION, OR THE GENERATION
OF YOUR FACULTY AND PARENTS, OR YOUR GENERATION. THIS IS A
CONFLICT DEEPLY ROOTED IN IDEAS. THIS CONFLICT IS AS OLD AS
RECORDED HISTORY. THE THREAT POSED BY THE SOVIET UNION IS THE
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LINEAL DESCENDENT OF THE SAME THREAT WESTERN CIVILIZATIONS HAVE
FACED FOR BETTER THAN TWO THOUSAND YEARS: IT IS THE THREAT
POSED BY DEPOTISM AGAINST THE MORE OR LESS STEADILY DEVELOPING
CONCEPT THAT THE HIGHEST GOAL OF THE STATE IS TO PROTECT AND TO
FOSTER THE CREATIVE CAPABILITIES AND THE LIBERTIES OF THE
INDIVIDUAL- IT IS A CONTEST BETWEEN TWO ELEMENTAL AND HISTORICALLY
OPPOSED IDEAS OF THE RELATIONSHIP BETWEEN THE INDIVIDUAL AND THE
STATE. THE CHIEF THREAT POSED BY THE SOVIET UNION, THEREFORE, IS
NOT NECESSARILY IN THE VASTNESS OF ITS MILITARY FORCES--THOUGH
VAST THEY ARE--BUT IN THE RELENTLESSNESS OF THEIR ASSAULT ON
OUR VALUES-
THREE DAYS AFTER HIS SPEECH HERE IN FULTON, MR- CHURCHILL
ADDRESSED THE VIRGINIA STATE ASSEMBLY, THE OLDEST LEGISLATIVE
BODY IN THE WESTERN HEMISPHERE- IN THAT SPEECH HE STATED:
"IT IS IN THE YEARS OF PEACE THAT WAR IS PREVENTED AND
THOSE FOUNDATIONS LAID UPON WHICH THE NOBLE STRUCTURES OF THE
FUTURE CAN BE BUILT. THAT PEACE WILL NOT BE PRESERVED WITHOUT
THE VIRTUES WHICH MAKE VICTORY POSSIBLE IN WAR- PEACE WILL NOT
BE PRESERVED BY PIOUS SENTIMENTS EXPRESSED IN TERMS OF PLATITUDES,
OR BY OFFICIAL GRIMACES AND DIPLOMATIC CORRECTITUDE, OR BY CASTING
ASIDE IN DANGEROUS TIMES OUR PANOPLY OF WAR-LIKE STRENGTH. THERE
MUST BE EARNEST THOUGHT. THERE MUST BE FAITHFUL PERSEVERANCE
AND FORESIGHT. GREATHEART MUST HAVE HIS SWORD AND ARMOR TO GUARD
THE PILGRIMS ON THEIR WAY- Iff
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I AM CONFIDENT THAT SIR WINSTON WOULD AGREE THAT DESPITE
OUR FONDEST HOPES TO FULFILL ISAIAH'S PROPHECY, ALL OF HUMAN
HISTORY, AND ESPECIALLY ALL OF RUSSIAN HISTORY, POINTS TO OUR
NEED AND THE NEED OF OUR CHILDREN FOR SWORDS AS WELL AS PLOWSHARES-
I SEE, THEREFORE, THE SAME FUTURE CHURCHILL SAW HERE SO LONG
AGO--NOT AN EASY FUTURE--BUT, WITH PERSEVERANCE AND DEVOTION TO
OUR DUTY, A FREE ONE IN WHICH OUR VALUES AND OPPORTUNITIES ARE
PRESERVED-
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