PORTRAYING LIFE IN A PROLIFERATED WORLD

• Document Type: CREST
• Collection: General CIA Records
• Document Number (FOIA) /ESDN (CREST): CIA-RDP85M00364R000801330053-2
• Release Decision: RIPPUB
• Original Classification: S
• Document Page Count: 5
• Document Creation Date: December 21, 2016
• Document Release Date: July 7, 2008
• Sequence Number: 53
• Publication Date: November 12, 1982
• Content Type: MEMO

Approved For Release 2008/07/07: CIA-RDP85M00364R000801330053-2
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Central Intelligence Agency
Office of the Deputy Director for Intelligence
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Approved For Release 2008/07/07: CIA-RDP85M00364R000801330053-2
 Approved For Release 2008/07/07: CIA-RDP85M00364R000801330053-2
MEMORANDUM FOR: Deputy Director for Intelligence
FROM
SECRET
epu y rec or of Scientific and Weapons Research-
SUBJECT: :Portraying Life in a Proliferated World
REFERENCE: : DCI Memorandum "How to Live in a Proliferated
25X1
1. On 10 November we held a brainstorming session to develop
ideas about conducting an assessment of Life in a Proliferated World.
.Included were nuclear Proliferation specialists from various offices
in the Directorate, from the NIC, and an analytical 25X1
methodology specialist from PAS.. Several ideas were considered
during wide-ranging discussions of the problem and how to approach
it. There was no consensus on the best way to respond to the Director's
request. There was a consensus on one point: that the pitfalls en-
countered in-previous attempts to tackle this issue comprehensively
still remain. Very little has been done externally in, this area to date,
probably because the simplification of. world models necessary for
individuals to deal with the subject detracts from the reliability or
usefulness of the ultimate conclusions. (S)
2. Several years ago (Carter administration) OSWR (then O5I) put
.together a ten year list of future milestones, in nuclear proliferation--
important events that would affect US nuclear proliferation interests
and when they would be likely to occur. This paper was done for (and
well received by) State in order to give them a better understanding of
the kind of decision points they would be facing down the road in
nuclear proliferation policy and when these decisions would have to
be made. Although not a "proliferated world" paper as such, it could
be updated and the national security aspects could be fleshed out to
provide a first step in responding to the Director's request. (S)
SECRET
_ Approved For Release 2008/07/07: CIA-RDP85M00364R000801330053-2
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.. .. u1.1V 1V.J1
SUBJECT: Portraying Life in a Proliferated World
3. The broader subject of Life in a Proliferated World could
be addressed in several ways--some more ambitious than others. The
attached list identifies possible projects in order of increasing
levels of effort, likely payoff, and time required. In my view we
should either do only the milestone paper update mentioned above as
the most useful near term.(Feb 83) thing that could be done or go to
the building block approach (18 months) if we want to give it our
best shot. (S)
4. The milestone paper could and should be done in the DI)I,
without problem as far as I can tell. The comprehensive, building
block effort would best be carried out under NIC auspices because of
the many community equities involved. (U)
Attachment: a/s
SECRET
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 Approved For Release 2008/07/07: CIA-RDP85M00364R000801330053-2
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Approved For Release 2008/07/07: CIA-RDP85M00364R000801330053-2
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SUBJECT: Portraying Life in a Proliferated World
Distribution:
Orig - addressee
1 - ADDI
1 - DDI Registry
1
1
W AG/SWR 25X1
1 - rono
OSWR/AG
(12 Nov 82) 25X1
3
SECRET
Approved For Release 2008/07/07: CIA-RDP85M00364R000801330053-2