QUESTIONS SUBMITTED BY PBS FOR INTERVIEW ON TECHNOLOGY TRANSFER

• Document Type: CREST
• Collection: General CIA Records
• Document Number (FOIA) /ESDN (CREST): CIA-RDP85M00364R001001530015-9
• Release Decision: RIPPUB
• Original Classification: S
• Document Page Count: 14
• Document Creation Date: December 20, 2016
• Sequence Number: 15
• Content Type: REPORT

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QUESTIONS SUBMITTED BY PBS FOR
INTERVIEW ON TECHNOLOGY TRANSFER
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1. HOW SERIOUS IS THE TECHNOLOGY FLOW TO THE USSR?
-- OUR INTELLIGENCE ANALYSIS SHOWS THAT THE FLOW OF MILITARY-RELATED
WESTERN TECHNOLOGY TO THE SOVIET BLOC IS A MUCH LARGER AND MORE
SIGNIFICANT PROBLEM THAN ANYONE HAD PREVIOUSLY SUSPECTED.
THE UNITED STATES AND ITS ALLIES HAVE TRADITIONALLY RELIED ON OUR
TECHNOLOGICAL SUPERIORITY TO OFFSET THE NUMERICAL SUPERIORITY OF THE
WARSAW PACT.
-- BUT THAT TECHNOLOGICAL SUPERIORITY IS ERODING AS THE SOVIET UNION AND
ITS ALLIES INTRODUCE MORE AND MORE SOPHISTICATED WEAPONS -- WEAPONS
THAT ALL TOO OFTEN ARE DEVELOPED AND MANUFACTURED WITH THE DIRECT HELP
OF WESTERN TECHNOLOGY.
-- WITHOUT THIS WESTERN TECHNOLOGY SOVIET WEAPON SYSTEMS, SUCH AS THEIR
ICBMS, SUBMARINES, AIRCRAFT AND TANKS, WOULD BE MUCH LESS CAPABLE AND
THEIR DEFENSE INDUSTRY WOULD BE SIGNIFICANTLY LESS EFFICIENT.
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2. WHY DO THE SOVIETS NEED OUR TECHNOLOGY AND HOW DO THEY APPLY IT?
ALTHOUGH THE SOVIETS DO HAVE GOOD SCIENTISTS AND ENGINEERS, THEIR
POLITICAL AND ECONOMIC SYSTEM IS NOT CONDUCIVE TO INDIGENOUS
TECHNOLOGICAL INNOVATION. LOOK AT THEIR CIVIL SECTORS THAT NEED
WESTERN TECHNOLOGY JUST TO BE PRODUCTIVE:
OIL AND GAS
CHEMICALS
AGRICULTURE
AUTOMOTIVE, BOTH AUTOMOBILES AND TRUCKS.
-- THEIR MILITARY SECTOR'S CAPABILITY TO DEVELOP AND APPLY NEW TECHNOLOGY
IS ESSENTIALLY NO DIFFERENT. IN FACT IT NEEDS EVEN HIGHER-LEVELS OF
WESTERN TECHNOLOGY TO PRODUCE THE' MODERN WEAPONS DEMANDED BY THEIR
MILITARY CUSTOMERS.
-- SOVIET WEAPONS DESIGNERS AND DEFENSE MANUFACTURERS NEED ADVANCED
WESTERN COMPONENTS, SUCH AS MICROELECTRONICS AND MODERN INDUSTRIAL
EQUIPMENT AND TECHNOLOGY TO PRODUCE THE MODERN AND MORE SOPHISTICATED
WEAPONS DEMANDED BY THEIR MILITARY LEADERS.
-- SOVIET INDUSTRY AND ITS SCIENTIFIC COMMUNITY ARE GENERALLY INCAPABLE
OF?PRODUCIrG THESE ADVANCED COMPONENTS AND EQUIPMENT IN THE TIME
ALLOWED WITHOUT WESTERN TECHNOLOGICAL ASSISTANCE.
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-- AS THE SOVIETS STRIVE TO KEEP UP WITH WESTERN MILITARY SYSTEMS THEY
CONSTANTLY FIND THAT THEIR INDUSTRY DOES NOT HAVE THE MODERN
TECHNOLOGY AND MANUFACTURING EQUIPMENT TO DO SO....SO THEY MUST
ACQUIRE MORE FROM THE WEST.
---HOW DO THEY APPLY IT?
-- THE SOVIETS ACQUIRE WESTERN TECHNOLOGY FOR SPECIFIC MILITARY PURPOSES,
SELECTED BECAUSE OF ITS UNIQUE APPLICATION TO AN ONGOING DEFENSE
PROJECT. THUS IT HAS DIRECT AND OFTEN IMMEDIATE BENEFIT.
WESTERN WEAPONS DESIGNS, ACQUIRED MAINLY BY CLANDESTINE MEANS, ARE
USED TO DEVELOP AND IMPROVE THE PERFORMANCE OF SIMILAR SOVIET WEAPONS,
SUCH AS GUIDED MISSILES AND FIGHTER AIRCRAFT. KNOWLEDGE CONCERNING
HOW THESE WESTERN WEAPONS OPERATE ALSO HELP THE SOVIETS DESIGN
COUNTERMEASURES AS WELL.
WESTERN COMPONENT TECHNOLOGY SUCH AS MICROELECTRONIC CIRCUITS ARE ALSO
ILLEGALLY ACQUIRED AND COPIED FOR USE IN SOVIET WEAPONS. THE DESIGN
AND MANUFACTURE OF SUCH ADVANCED COMPONENTS OFTEN REQUIRE THE SOVIETS
TO ACQUIRE 100'S OF PIECES OF EMBARGOED MANUFACTURING EQUIPMENT THRU
ILLEGAL TRADE CHANNELS.
WHEN THE SOVIET DEFENSE MANUFACTURES NEED MODERN PRODUCTION EQUIPMENT
-- WHICH IS OFTEN EMBARGOED -- THEY PREFER TO ACQUIRE A FEW ITEMS AND
THEN ILLEGALLY COPY ALL THEY NEED. IF THEY ARE UNABLE TO DO THIS THEN
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THEY'LL MOUNT A MAJOR ILLEGAL TRADE ACQUISITION EFFORT TO GET ALL THEY
NEED.
THE SOVIETS HAVE ACQUIRED LARGE VOLUMES OF WESTER S&T LITERATURE, FROM
RUTH OUR INDUSTRIAL AND ACADEMIC COMMUNITIES. THERE ARE OVER 100,000
PEOPLE INVOLVED IN THE ACQUISITION, TRANSLATION, AND DISSEMINATION OF
THIS WESTERN S&T INFORMATION THROUGHOUT THE USSR. IT CONTRIBUTES
SIGNIFICANTLY TO THE USSR'S TECHNOLOGICAL BASE AND IS USED THROUGHOUT
THEIR EDUCATION, RESEARCH, AND MILITARY DESIGN COMMUNITIES. IT ALSO
SERVES AS THE MEANS OF IDENTIFYING NEW AREAS FOR ACQUISITION.
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3. HOW DO THEY ACQUIRE IT --- THAT IS, ARE THEY TURNING INCREASINGLY TO
ILLEGAL MEANS?
THE SOVIETS AND THEIR WARSAW PACT ALLIES HAVE OBTAINED LARGE AMOUNTS
OF MILITARILY SIGNIFICANT WESTERN TECHNOLOGY AND EQUIPMENT THRU LEGAL
AND ILLEGAL MEANS. THEY HAVE USED:
-- THEIR STUDENTS AND THEIR S&T AGREEMENTS WITH THE'WEST TO
FACILITATE ACCESS TO THE NEW TECHNOLOGIES EMERGING FROM OUR
GOVERNMENT AND UNIVERSITY LABS;
-- THEIR SCARCE HARD CURRENCY TO ILLEGALLY PURCHASE CONTROLLED
EQUIPMENT AS WELL AS THAT WHICH IS UNCONTROLLED BUT HAS MILITARY-
INDUSTRIAL APPLICATIONS; AND
-- THEIR INTELLIGENCE SERVICES TO ACQUIRE THOSE WESTERN TECHNOLOGIES
THAT ARE CLASSIFIED AND EXPORT CONTROLLED OR WHICH ARE PROPRIETARY
BUT OUR COMPANIES DO NOT WISH TO SELL.
-- TODAY THIS SOVIET EFFORT IS MASSIVE, WELL PLANNED, AND WELL MANAGED.
IT IS A NATIONAL-LEVEL PROGRAM APPROVED AT THE HIGHEST PARTY AND
GOVERNMENT LEVELS.
-- THIS PROGRAM ACCORDS TOP PRIORITY TO THE MILITARY AND MILITARY-
RELATED INDUSTRY, AND MAJOR ATTENTION IS ALSO GIVEN TO THE
CIVILIAN SECTORS OF SOVIET INDUSTRY THAT SUPPORT MILITARY
PRODUCTION.
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-- WE KNOW FROM OUR INTELLIGENCE THAT WESTERN WEAPONS DESIGNS AND
MILITARY TECHNOLOGIES ARE PRECISELY IDENTIFIED FOR ACQUISITION.
-- SOVIET GOVERNMENT ORGANIZATIONS RESPONSIBLE FOR EAST-WEST TRADE,
DOMESTIC AND INTERNATIONAL SCIENTIFIC ACTIVITIES, AND THEIR
INTELLIGENCE SERVICES ARE APPROPRIATELY TASKED.
-- MANY OF THEIR EAST EUROPEAN COUNTERPARTS ALSO ASSIST THEM IN THESE
ACQUISITION EFFORTS WHICH ARE CONDUCTED ON A WORLDWIDE BASIS.
-- IT IS THE WELL ORGANIZED AND WELL COORDINATED USE OF ALL THESE VARIOUS
ORGANIZATIONS THAT HAS MADE THE SOVIET PROGRAM TO ACQUIRE WESTERN
TECHNOLOGY SO SUCCESSFUL.
THE MOST SIGNIFICANT SOVIET MILITARY TECHNOLOGY ACQUISITIONS HAVE BEEN
IN THE FORM OF WEAPONS DESIGNS, MANUFACTURING BLUEPRINTS AND DRAWINGS,
AND CRITICAL COMPONENTS. THESE ACQUISITIONS HAVE RESULTED MAINLY FROM
TRADITIONAL CLANDESTINE INTELLIGENCE OPERATIONS BOTH IN THE US AND
ABROAD.
-- THEY HAVE ALSO BEEN QUITE SUCCESSFUL IN THE ACQUISITION -- MAINLY
THROUGH ILLEGAL MEANS -- OF ADVANCED MILITARY RELATED PRODUCTION
TECHNOLOGY RANGING FROM MICROELECTRONIC MANUFACTURING, TO MISSILE CASE
FILAMENT WINDING AND HIGH ENERGY LASER MIRRORS.
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FROM THE HUNDREDS OF CASES OF TRANSFERS OF MILITARILY SIGNIFICANT
TECHNOLOGY THAT WE HAVE STUDIED, WE HAVE FOUND THAT SOME 70% ARE THE
RESULT OF SOVIET BLOC INTELLIGENCE EFFORTS, INVOLVING EITHER OVERT OR
CLANDESTINE COLLECTION ACTIVITIES.
THE REMAINING 30% OR SO IS ALSO VERY IMPORTANT BUT IT IS
ACQUIRABLE THRU OPEN AND LEGAL MEANS SUCH AS THE PURCHASE OF
UNCONTROLLED EQUIPMENT, OPEN SOURCE PUBLICATION PROCUREMENT, ANU
STUDENT EXCHANGES.
--- ARE THEY TURNING INCREASINGLY TO ILLEGAL MEANS?
-- YES, AS WE SHUT DOWN SOME OF THE TRANSFER CHANNELS WE ARE SEEING THE
SOVIETS SHIFT FROM OVERT TO ILLEGAL MEANS AND FROM ONE COUNTRY TO
ANOTHER.
-- THE SOVIETS ARE VERY PRACTICAL AND WILL USE THOSE ACQUISITION METHODS
THAT ARE APPROPRIATE AND NECESSARY LEGAL OR ILLEGAL, AND THEY ARE VERY
GOOD AT BOTH.
OUR ANALYSIS OF PAST TRANSFER ACTIVITIES IDENTIFIED SEVERAL TRENDS
DURING THE 197U'S THAT WE BELIEVE HAVE SIGNIFICANT IMPLICATIONS FOR
THE 198OS:
-- FIRST, SINCE THE EARLY 1970S, THE SOVIETS AND THEIR EAST EUROPEAN
ALLIES HAVE BEEN INCREASINGLY USING THEIR NATIONAL INTELLIGENCE
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SERVICES TO ACQUIRE WESTERN CIVILIAN TECHNOLOGIES -- FOR EXAMPLE,
AUTOMOBILE, ENERGY, CHEMICALS AND EVEN CONSUMER ELECTRONICS;
-- SECOND, SINCE THE MID-197US, SOVIET AND EAST EUROPEAN INTELLIGENCE
SERVICES HAVE BEEN EMPHASIZING THE COLLECTION OF MANUFACTURING-
RELATED TECHNOLOGY, IN ADDITION TO WEAPONS TECHNOLOGY; AND
-- THIRD, SINCE THE LATE 19705, THERE HAS BEEN INCREASED EMPHASIS BY
THESE INTELLIGENCE SERVICES ON THE ACQUISITION OF NEW WESTERN
TECHNOLOGIES EMERGING FROM UNIVERSITIES AND RESEARCH CENTERS.
-- THE COMBINED EFFECT OF THESE TRENDS IS A HEAVY FOCUS BY SOVIET BLOC
INTELLIGENCE ON THE COMMERCIAL SECTORS IN THE WEST:
-- SECTORS WHICH ARE NOT NORMALLY PROTECTED FROM HOSTILE INTELLIGENCE
SERVICES;
-- AND WHOSE INDUSTRIAL SECURITY IS NO MATCH FOR HUMAN PENETRATION
OPERATIONS OF HOSTILE SERVICES.
BUT, THE MOST ALARMING ASPECT OF THIS COMMERCIAL FOCUS BY SOVIET
BLOC INTELLIGENCE SERVICES IS THAT AS A RESULT OF THESE OPERATIONS
THE SOVIETS HAVE GAINED, AND CONTINUED TO GAIN, ACCESS TO THOSE
ADVANCED TECHNOLOGIES THAT ARE LIKELY TO BE USED BY THE WEST IN
ITS OWN FUTURE WEAPONS SYSTEMS.
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-- CONSEQUENTLY THE US AND ITS ALLIES WILL NEED TO ORGANIZE BETTER TO
PROTECT NOT ONLY THEIR MILITARY-RELATED TECHNOLOGY CENTERS BUT THEIR
INDUSTRIAL, COMMERCIAL AND SCIENTIFIC COMMUNITIES. AT THE SAME TIME
WE WILL HAVE TO DEVELOP BETTER INDUSTRIAL SECURITY PRACTICES TO COPE
WITH THE SOVIET BLOC INTELLIGENCE THREAT TO OUR COMPANIES, BOTH THOSE
IN THE US AND SUBSIDARIES ABROAD.
-- FURTHERMORE, IT MUST BE RECOGNIZED THAT EXPORT CONTROLS ARE NOT
DESIGNED TO STOP HOSTILE INTELLIGENCE SERVICES OR INDUSTRIAL
ESPIONAGE. THEY ARE INTENDED TO CONTROL THE FLOW OF LEGAL SALES.
-- OUR INTELLIGENCE SHOWS THAT WHEN WE HAVE GOOD ENFORCEMENT, EXPORT
CONTROLS DO WORK: THEY SLOW DOWN AND IN SOME CASES PREVENT THE
ACQUISITION OF DEFENSE-RELATED INDUSTRIAL CAPABILITIES BY, SOVIET
BLOC COUNTRIES.
-- FOR EXAMPLE, IN THE CASE OF COMPUTERS, IT HAS TAKEN THE SOVIETS
MUCH LONGER TO ACHIEVE THE CAPABILITY THEY NOW HAVE. AND, I MIGHT
ADD THAT IF THE US GOVERNMENT HAD HAD A PROGRAM "EXODUS" IN THE
MID-197US I BELIEVE THE SOVIETS WOULD NOT HAVE THE MILTIARY
MICROELECTRONICS CAPABILITY THEY HAVE TODAY,
-- EFFECTIVE EXPORT CONTROL ENFORCEMENT FORCES THE SOVIETS TO USE THEIR
RESOURCES TO STEAL THE TECHNOLOGY, DIVERT IT INTO ILLEGAL TRADE
CHANNELS AND ACQUIRE IT WITHOUT FULL CUSTOMER SUPPORT, THUS MAKING THE
TRANSFER LESS EFFECTIVE.
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-- AS A CONSEQUENCE OF ALL OF THIS WE BELIEVE THE US AND ITS ALLIES ARE
LIKELY TO EXPERIENCE INCREASING COUNTERINTELLIGENCE AND RELATED
INDUSTRIAL SECURITY AND EXPORT CONTROL PROBLEMS DURING THE 1980S.
-- WE AND OUR ALLIES WILL HAVE TO ORGANIZE MORE EFFECTIVELY THAN WE
HAVE IN THE PAST IF WE ARE TO BE SUCCESSFUL IN COMBATTING THE
SOVIET BLOC'S WELL COORDINATED EFFORT TO ACQUIRE OUR TECHNOLOGIES.
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4. HOW GREAT A PRIORITY DOES THIS ACQUISITION APPEAR TO BE FOR THE SOVIETS?
SINCE AT LEAST THE 1930S, THE SOVIET UNION HAS DEVOTED VAST AMOUNTS OF
ITS FINANCIAL AND MANPOWER RESOURCES TO THE ACQUISITION OF WESTERN
TECHNOLOGY THAT WOULD ENHANCE ITS MILITARY POWER AND IMPROVE THE
EFFICIENCY OF ITS MILITARY MANUFACTURING INDUSTRY. TODAY THE
ACQUISITION OF WESTERN TECHNOLOGY IS A VERY HIGH PRIORITY FOR THEM.
-- A FORMER SOVIET INTELLIGENCE OFFICER HAS TOLD US THAT THE ACQUISITION
OF WESTERN TECHNOLOGY FOR THEIR MILITARY INDUSTRY HAD THE HIGHEST
OPERATIONAL PRIORITY. HE FURTHER STATED THAT THE REASON FOR THIS WAS
THAT THE WESTERN TECHNOLOGY SAVED THE SOVIET DEFENSE INDUSTRY 100'S OF
MILLIONS OF RUBLES IN R&D COSTS EACH YEAR.
IN ADDITION TO THESE R&D SAVINGS THIS WESTERN TECHNOLOGY CUTS YEARS
OFF OF THE NORMAL WEAPONS DEVELOPMENT CYCLE. THIS IS A SIGNIFICANT
BENEFIT ITSELF IN THE SOVIET'S EFFORT TO KEEP UP WITH WESTERN MILITARY
CAPABILITIES.
A GOOD EXAMPLE OF THIS IS THE US SIDEWINDER AIR-TO-AIR MISSILE.
STARTING WITH A SET OF WESTERN MANUFACTURING PLANS THE SOVIETS
WERE ABLE TO SAVE SOME 7 YEARS OF R&D THE AND ABOUT $115M IN R&D
COSTS.
THE SOVIETS PRODUCE A NUMBER OF CAPABLE MODERN WEAPONS TODAY,
INCLUDING ICBMS, FIGHTERS, AND TANKS. BUT AS THE WEST CONTINUES TO
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IMPROVE ITS MILITARY CAPABILITIES WITH NEW TECHNOLOGY, THE SOVIET
MILITARY PLANNERS RECOGNIZED THEY NEED HIGHER PERFORMANCE WEAPONS TO.-
COMBAT THE NEW WESTERN SYSTEMS.
-- THEY OFTEN FIND THEY NEED ADVANCED WEAPONS COMPONENTS OR
MATERIALS, SUCH AS MICROPROCESSORS AND CARBON COMPOSITES, TO
ACHIEVE THE WEAPONS PERFORMANCE THEIR MILTIARY PLANNERS DESIRE.
-- BECAUSE THEIR OWN TECHNOLOGY BASE AND INDUSTRIAL CAPABILITIES
CONTINUE TO LAG THOSE OF THE WEST THEY CONSTANTLY FIND THEMSELVES
IN NEED OF EMBARGOED AND PROPRIETARY WESTERN TECHNOLOGY.
TO KEEP UP WITH WESTERN TECHNOLOGY AND WEAPONS PERFORMANCE THEY
HAVE LITTLE CHOICE BUT TO ACQUIRE THEIR TECHNOLOGY BY WHATEVER
MEANS THEY CAN,....... OR
-- OR FALL BEHIND WITH LOWER WEAPONS PERFORMANCE AND CONCOMITANT
DEFENSE PRODUCTION COSTS FOR LARGER NUMBERS OF WEAPONS.
-- FURTHERMORE, WE BELIEVE THE LESSONS LEARNED BY THE SOVIETS IN THE
RECENT MIDDLE-EAST FIGHTING AND FROM THE USE OF ADVANCED WESTERN
WEAPONS IN THE FALKLAND WAR HAVE HEIGHTEN THE PRIORITY THAT THE USSR
PLACES ON THE ACQUISITION OF WESTERN MILITARY TECHNOLOGY.
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5. WHAT ARE WE DOING TO PREVENT (SOVIET ACQUISITIONS OF SENSITIVE
TECHNOLOGY)?
-- THE INTELLIGENCE COMMUNITY'S ROLE IN THE GOVERNMENT-WIDE EFFORT TO
STOP SOVIET ACQUISITION OF SENSITIVE US TECHNOLOGY IS THREE FOLD:
-- FIRST, WE PROVIDE FOREIGN INTELLIGENCE AND ANALYTICAL SUPPORT TO
THE POLICY AND DECISIONMAKING ELEMENTS IN THE GOVERNMENT
RESPONSIBLE FOR TECHNOLOGY TRANSFER MATTERS;
-- SECOND, WE PROVIDE FOREIGN INTELLIGENCE SUPPORT TO THE US EXPORT
CONTROL COMMUNITY AND ITS ENFORCEMENT EFFORTS; AND
THIRD, BECAUSE OF THE HEAVY INVOLVEMENT OF SOVIET BLOC
INTELLIGENCE SERVICES IN THE TECHNOLOGY TRANSFER ARENA, WE ARE
USING OUR COUNTERINTELLIGENCE CAPABILITIES AS A COUNTERMEASURE.
FURTHERMORE, WE HAVE ALERTED OUR ALLIES TO THIS ASPECT OF THE
PROBLEM AND HAVE ENCOURAGED THEM TO TAKE APPROPRIATE
COUNTERINTELLIGENCE ACTIONS AS WELL.
FROM OUR ALL-SOURCE VIEW OF THIS VERY SERIOUS NATIONAL SECURITY
PROBLEM IT IS BECOMING INCREASINGLY CLEAR THAT WE AND OUR ALLIES WILL
HAVE TO ORGANIZE MUCH MORE EFFECTIVELY THAN WE HAVE IN THE PAST TO
COPE WITH THE SOVIET BLOC'S ACQUISITION PROGRAM. IT WILL REQUIRE A
COORDINATED WESTERN COUNTERINTELLIGENCE EFFORT, GREATLY IMPROVED
INDUSTRIAL SECURITY MEASURES, ENHANCED EXPORT CONTROL ENFORCEMENT, AND
PROTECTION OF OUR CIVILIAN INDUSTRIES AND SCIENTIFIC COMMUNITIES FROM
HOSTILE INTELLIGENCE SERVICES.
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