SOVIET ABILITY TO PROGRESS WITHOUT IMPORTS EXCEEDS OTHER INDUSTRIALIZED COUNTRIES

• Document Type: CREST
• Collection: General CIA Records
• Document Number (FOIA) /ESDN (CREST): CIA-RDP85M00364R001101590023-3
• Release Decision: RIFPUB
• Original Classification: K
• Document Page Count: 2
• Document Creation Date: December 20, 2016
• Document Release Date: February 20, 2008
• Sequence Number: 23
• Publication Date: January 8, 1983
• Content Type: OPEN SOURCE

97th Congress
Henry S. Reuss, Wis.
Chairman
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. SOVIET PJ3ILIiY TO PROGRESS tiITHOGT IMPORTS
EXCEEDS OTizs.R INDUSTRIALIZED COUNTRIES
Roger ~N. Jepsen, towa
Vice Chairman
House:
Richard Bolling, Mo.
Les H. Hamilton, Ind.
Gillis W. Long, La.
Parren J. Mitchell, Md.
Augustus F. Hawkins, Calif.
Clarence J. Brown, Ohio
Margaret M. Heckler, Mass.
John H. Rousselot, Calif. '
Chalmers P. Wylie,-Ohio
Senate:
Wittian V. Roth, Jr., Del.
James Abdnor, S. Dak.
Steven Symms, Idaho
Pa~~!a Hawkins, Fla.
Mack Mattingly, Ga.
Lloyd Bentsen, Tex.
V'llliam Proxmire, Wis.
Edward M. Kennedy, Mass.
Paul S. Sarbanes, Md.
Press:
Bill Maddox
224-0363
Economist:
Richard Kaufman
224-0377
1982 - 117
h'ashington, D. C. -- Senator William Proxmire (D-Wis.
today released a previously classified report which shows
"the Soviet Union is perhaps the most self-reliant indus-
trialized nation."
According to a report delivered last month to a
Proxmire subcommittee hearing by ahigh-ranking Central
Intelligence Agency official, "...the ability of the
Soviet economy to re_~ain viable in the absence of imports
is much greater thin that of most, possibly all, other
industrialized economies." - -
The author of the report is Aenry Rowen, Chairman,-
National Intellige~-:ce Council, CIA, who submitted the
report at a closed hearing of the Joint Economic Sub-
coa'rartittee on International Trade, Finance, and Security
;Economics, of which Proxmire is Vice Chairman.
Proxmire said in a statement from his k'ashington,
D. C., office, "Analysts in the West typically have focused
on Soviet economic problems. The Soviet Union is our -
rinci
al
ot
ti
l
d
r
hi
i
,p
p
p
en
a
a
versa
y. T
s
s all the more
reason to have accurate balanced assessments of the state
of i ~-c onnr~n~cs
possesses enormoLS reserves of natural resources, includinc
1
~+~-??~+??~+ +4+7c~ ~. c~.v,av:uY .isa ~~iiu~ vi vavr, ald5 d large ana
~z~?ell-trained labor force, is highly industrialized, anc~
'-developments as the inefficient performance of the farm
,'sector and the heavy burden of defense, it is the world's
while the Soviet Union has been weakened .by such harmful
"One of the worst things we can do is to underestimate
the economic streng ~h of our principal adversary:'
Proxmire continued, "It needs to be understood that
oil and gas and the relatively scarce minerals and
precious metals. -
"It is soberina_ to reflect on the possibility that
Soviet economic trends might improve rather than grow
worse ." .
food. These imports are .intended mainly to prevent a
decline in meat consumption and are not essential to
?C+n Soviet trade, Rowen's report says, "Despite the
large-scale expansion in agricultural imports, the Soviet
Union .remains basically self-sufficient with respect to
maintaining an adequate quantity of food consumption."
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~u4~ l~-~LC~~~~~~c ~.,or~t~t~~ee
E)~iBARGOED FOR RELr.~-SE TO
6;00 P.M.. SATURDAY, 3ANUARY 8, 1983
 "'` "Despite the slowdown of the growth rate," Rowen said, "we do not
~~ consider an economic 'collapse' -- a sudden and sustained decline in
GNP -- even a remote possibility."
The report concludes that the Soviet econo:~y will continue grow-
ing slowly -- at an average rate of 1 to 2 percent for the foreseeable.
future, while per capita consumption could level off or. even fall
slightly .
~Rowen's report says the consequences of the recent slowing of
economic grow~h will have two major effects
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1. Soviet 'leadership will face much harder choices in allocating
resources in consumption, investment, and defense.
2. There could be further invalidation of the USSR's claim
that its economy is an appropriate model for the rest of
the world, particularly the Third World.
I'he report also says, "Despite some experimentation with _
decentralized forms of economic administration, the Soviet Leader-
ship has remained firmly committed to strict central planning and
management of most economic activity. The justification has been that
rigorous centralization is required for fulfillment of national
objectives.
"There are weaknesses in the Soviet economic system,"the
report states, "that even the new Andropov regime is nat likely
to change."
Copies of the report are available from the Publirations
Department, Joint Economic Committee, G-133 Dirksen Bldg., Wash-
ington, DC, 20510, or by calling [phone].
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