OSWR FUTURE SOVIET WEAPONS ASSESSMENT

• Document Type: CREST
• Collection: General CIA Records
• Document Number (FOIA) /ESDN (CREST): CIA-RDP85M00364R001101630001-2
• Release Decision: RIPPUB
• Original Classification: S
• Document Page Count: 3
• Document Creation Date: December 20, 2016
• Document Release Date: February 4, 2008
• Sequence Number: 1
• Publication Date: December 22, 1983
• Content Type: MEMO

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` L SECRET
The Director of Central Intelligence
Washington, D.C. 20505
NIC #9213-83
22 December 1983 TD-1 '5 5
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MEMORANDUM FOR: Director of Central Intelligence
Deputy Director of Central Intelligence
VIA : Chairman, National Intelligence Council
Major General Edward B. Atkeson, USA
National Intelligence Officer for General Purpose Forces
SUBJECT : OSWR Future Soviet Weapons Assessment
1. This is in reply to your note of 6 December 1983 requesting my
opinion of the subject document.
2. I believe that OSWR and SOVA have made a useful contribution to
analytical methodology with the techniques they developed in support of this
paper. Essentially, they suggest that quantification of analysts' judgments
regarding:
-- the degree of change in the severity of threat posed by a
given weapons system,
-- the number of such weapons deployed, and
-- the flexibility of the system design
can yield useful indices regarding the magnitude of future threats posed by
developments in a selected mission area. The proposition is an interesting
one, and one which should be further explored for possible applications and
development. The authors are careful to note that the indices which result
are "only a measure of the threat change from 1985 to 1995," and that "for
weapons with low indices, it is still important to devote significant
intelligence resources to them, either because they present a high absolute
threat (e.g., ICBMs and IRBMs) or because the significance of breakout would
be exceptionally important (e.g., ASW developments)."
3. As potentially useful as the technique may appear for internal
analysis, I do not believe.that it constitutes an approach to program
justification to which we would want to afford great visibility in its current
form. Besides the pitfalls cited in the authors' cautionary note, the
technique gives rise to questions regarding:
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BEG
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SECRET NIC #9213-83
-- the acceptability of the analysts' opinions upon which the
indices depend,
-- the possibility of other factors, not included in the
indices construction, counterbalancing the judgments
(e.g.: the development of counter-technology or new
operational developments mitigating the effectiveness of
weapons posited),
doctrine on the likelihood of deployments.
-- constraints of cost factors and of Soviet operational
4. The effort which OSWR and SOVA have applied to this project can be
put to good use. I recommend that you ask those offices to review their work
and to develop a paper which would cast the mid-1990's threat in terms of
specificity akin to the language you used in your lecture to the Army Command
and General Staff College on 13 December (extract attached).
5. I also recommend that the authors of this paper he asked to
restructure the presentation to make it suitable for publication in Studies in
Intelligence. I believe the concept has merit and should be exposed to an
audience where it is quite likely to give rise to additional ideas of value.
-2-
SECRET
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 Approved For Release 2008/02/04: CIA-RDP85M00364R001101630001-2
SECRET NIC #9213-83
22 December 1983
MEMORANDUM FOR: DCI
DDCI
VIA : C/NIC
FROM : NIO/GPF
SUBJECT : OSWR Future Soviet Weapons Assessment
Distribution:
DCI (w/att)
DDCI (w/att)
Exec. Reg. (w/att)
C/NIC (wo/att)
VC/NIC (wo/att) Meyer
VC/NIC (wo/att) Waterman
A/NIOs/GPF (wo/att)
NIO/GPF File (w/att)
NIO/GPF Chrono (wo/att)
3-
J Lt,. C
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