ISRAELI PEACE PROCESS

• Document Type: CREST
• Collection: General CIA Records
• Document Number (FOIA) /ESDN (CREST): CIA-RDP85M00364R001201880027-6
• Release Decision: RIFPUB
• Original Classification: S
• Document Page Count: 1
• Document Creation Date: December 20, 2016
• Document Release Date: April 1, 2008
• Sequence Number: 27
• Publication Date: May 1, 1983
• Content Type: REPORT

Approved For Release 2008/04/01 :CIA-RDP85M00364R001201880027-6
Arab and Israeli interest in the West Bank/Palestinian issue
has been sidetracked by the Lebanon negotiations and other .
regional developments. Neither side expects any major new
initiatives in the peace. process in the near term.
-- The PLO is currently .embroiled in an internal dispute.
which--while it probably will not threaten Arafat's hold
? on power--will cause the organization to shy sway from
any effort to reconsider President Reagan's peace plan.
,?o~dan is unr:il?.i.ng to enter peace-talks without prior
approval from the PLO. Syria is concerned about its
growing isolation in the Arab world and is focusing its
efforts on Lebanon.
-- The Israelis rejected the President's peace plan
.immediately after it was issued as contradicting the
Camp David accords. Tel Aviv continues to insist that
any negotiations must be based on Camp David, which is
rejected by the Arabs.
-- Both sides expect that the approaching presidential
elections make it unlikely that the U.S. will attempt
any new initiatives in the peace process.
Over the longer run, however, the momentum generated by the
Israeli-Lebanese agreement could revive interest in broader peace
negotiations.
Many moderate Arabs have privately endorsed.-the
Israeli-Lebanese accord and are impressed with U.S.
ability to get concessions from Israel.
There is growing evidence that Syria has concluded that
it cannot sabotage the Lebanon agreerent and is examining
various negotiating options. Damascus .may seek to get
U.S. assurances of support for its position on the Golan
Heights as part of tl~e price for a Syrian withdrawal. from
Lebanon. This could, in turn, lead to expanded
negotiations.
But broader negotiations would be opposed--for different
reasons--by the Israelis and the Soviets, .both of whom would work
to undercut any new initiatives.
The Soviets reject any negotiating process. which does not.
give them a role and would try to use their leverage with
Damascus to block any such effort.
Tel Aviv is apprehensive that new negotiating initiatives
will Lead to U.S. pressure on Israel for concessions and
aggravate U.S.-Israeli relations.
DOI: I?iay 83/I`ESA
Approved For Release 2008/04/01 :CIA-RDP85M00364R001201880027-6