TALKING POINTS ON GRENADA FOR CPPG MEETING

• Document Type: CREST
• Collection: General CIA Records
• Document Number (FOIA) /ESDN (CREST): CIA-RDP85M00364R001502590086-9
• Release Decision: RIPPUB
• Original Classification: S
• Document Page Count: 7
• Document Creation Date: December 20, 2016
• Sequence Number: 86
• Content Type: REPORT

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Talking Points on Grenada
for CPPG,Meeting
1. Possible Cuban Reactions. The range of options open to
Cuba for retaliating against the US for the invasion of Grenada
is very broad, extending from the certainty of a virulent
propaganda offensive to a number of highly unlikely military
actions. Following is a list--not intended to be exhaustive--of
general actions that Havana would be capable of undertaking.
-- Stepping up diplomatic activity--particularly at the UN,
the NAM, and other international organizations and
groupings--designed to embarrass the US by placing it on
the defensive.
HIGHLY LIKELY
-- Increasing anti-US propaganda activity using the Cuban
and foreign media, publications, and demonstrations by
solidarity groups sympathetic to Cuba and other leftist
causes around the world.
HIGHLY LIKELY
-- Organizing massive anti-US demonstrations in Cuba,
possibly focused against the US Interests Section in
Havana.
HIGHLY LIKELY
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Urging leftist guerrillas in Central America to increase
their anti-government activities.
HIGHLY LIKELY
Increasing Cuba's military presence in Nicaragua and
expanding the Cubans' role in counterinsurgency
activities there.
LIKELY
Ordering sabotage against US forces, bases, or embassies
in the Caribbean Basin or elsewhere using Cuban
surrogates or operatives that would give Havana
plausible deniability.
LIKELY
Urging terrorist contacts in the US, such as radical
Puerto Rican nationalists, to carry out bombings and
other activities.
POSSIBLE
Carrying out joint military exercises with Nicaragua,
including the temporary deployment of Cuban Mig aircraft
to that country.
POSSIBLE
Engineering a a mob attack or seizure of the US
Interests Section in Havana.
LIKELY
Interfering with domestic US radio broadcasts.
UNLIKELY (unless Radio Marti begins operating)
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-- Sending Mig or other advanced jet fighter aircraft to
the Nicaraguan Air Force.
UNLIKELY
-- Declaring the US Naval Base at Guantanamo Bay a
safehaven for all Cubans who want to emigrate.
UNLIKELY
-- Disabling the Panama Canal by covert sabotage.
UNLIKELY
-- Launching a military attack against the US Naval Base at
Guantanamo.
HIGHLY UNLIKELY
2. Plans for Returnees. A government communique read over
Havana radio last night said that Cuba had accepted the offer of
Colombia and Spain to help arrange the repatriation of Cubans
captured in Grenada as well as the return of the bodies of the
Cuban dead. The offer also apparently involves "Grenadian
revolutionary fighers" who want to go to Cuba. Judging from past
performance, Castro is likely to use the return of the Cubans as
an excuse for a mass demonstration against the US, lauding the
returnees as national heroes for standing up to the US.
According to the communique, the captured Cubans will be
brought home aboard the Cuban Naval Academy training ship Vietnam
Heroico, which as been in Grenada since before the coup against
Prime Minister Bishop. This means Havana will have ample time to
prime the returnees on what to say to the media to denigrate the
conduct of the US forces during the intervention in Grenada.
Castro's anguished handwringing over Cuban casualties rings
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insisted on prolonging the fighting, presumably until
some suitable revolutionary martyrs had been produced.
Castro stands to gain in several ways from the shedding of
Cuban blood in Grenada.
-- He now has an incident with which to ship up patriotism
and anti-US sentiment at home and shift attention from
domestic economic woes.
-- He needed some martyrs to maintain Cuban credibility in
those other countries where Cuba has a major military
presence.
-- He needed to send a message to Washington that US
intervention anywhere--he is thinking mainly, of course,
about Nicaragua--will be strongly resisted and extract a
price in blood.
-- He must maintain Cuba's revolutionary image and respect.
3. *East Europeans: We have no information to confirm
rumors that East European or Soviet Bloc personnel have been
captured on Grenada.
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unknown number of "Soviet allies" may be among the personnel
captured by US forces.
US forces currently engaged in securing the military barracks at
Calivigny on Grenada have speculated tha some East German and
Libyan personnel may be at this facility.
4. Number of Cubans. In a communique issue early this
morning, Havana informed the Cuban public yesterday that 600
construction workers and "collaborators" had been captured and
were still alive, but the status, of some 100 Cubans was
unknown. The communique said that it was hoped that the number
of dead would be less than 100.
In a press conference yesterday morning, Fidel Castro stated
that there were more than 700 Cubans in Grenada, including some
550 construction workers. The number 700 seems consistent with
this morning's official announcement.
5. We still have no confirmation of former Deputy Prime
Minister Brernard Coard's whereabouts.
and that his only possible actions would be either to
retire or go into exile until the air had cleared.
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reported
According to
Coard
had taken sanctuary in the Soviet Embassy where he has
resided for several days.
Grenadian official believes that Bernard Coard is at the
Calivigny military barracks in Grenada.
We have no information confirm the report that Coard made a
secret visit to Moscow this past July. We believe, however, that
he has made trips to the Soviet Union as well as Eastern Europe
in the past.
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