DESCRIPTION OF ANALYSIS TOPICS

• Document Type: CREST
• Collection: General CIA Records
• Document Number (FOIA) /ESDN (CREST): CIA-RDP85M00366R000200080013-9
• Release Decision: RIFPUB
• Original Classification: S
• Document Page Count: 2
• Document Creation Date: December 20, 2016
• Document Release Date: January 14, 2008
• Sequence Number: 13
• Publication Date: November 12, 1981
• Content Type: MEMO

Approved For Release 2008/01/14: CIA-RDP85M00366R000200080013-9
_~ ? SEGREI
NFAC-7334-81
12 November 1981
MEMORANDUM FOR: Chairman, National Intelligence Council
FROM : National Intelligence Officer for Latin America
SUBJECT : Description of Analysis Topics
Responding to your request, I am providing a brief description of the
topics suggested in my memorandum of 3 November.
-- Implications for Mexico of a Communist Central America by 1982
(currently scheduled as an NIE for 1982)
Will explore the effects of communist success in Central America on
the balance of internal political forces in Mexico including the
cohesion of the governing party, activities of the radical and
communist left and possible use of internal Mexican assets by outside
communist forces.
-- Extreme Left Victory in El Salvador in 1982--Implications for the
Region
Will examine the probability and consequences of a communist El Salvador
cooperating with Nicaragua and Cuba in supporting the revolutionary left
in the rest of Central America and the consequences on the morale,
cohesion, and probabilities of success of the governments of Guatemala
and Honduras.
-- Rightist Disruption of the Constitutional Transition in Brazil and
its Possible Implications
The political parties, labor unions, the Catholic Church, and other
groups look forward to the end of military government. However, events
exist that some right wing groups and officials might intend to prevent
the scheduled return to constitutional government in 1982. Given these
facts, there is a need for a careful examination of the internal and
international impact of any disruption in the scheduled transition
back to an elected government.
-- Successful Democratic Liberation of Nicaragua in 1982; Implications
for the Region and the Cuban Export of Subversion
Moderate forces in Nicaragua have been excluded from power but still
exist. If a combination of political and paramilitary help permitted
the moderates to gain power, what would the effect be in the region
and on Cuban subversive activities abroad?
CL BY SIGNER
SECRET RVW NOVEMBER 1987
Approved For Release 2008/01/14: CIA-RDP85M00366R000200080013-9
 Approved For Release 2008/01/14: CIA-RDP85M00366R000200080013-9
? SECRET
-- Growth within Cuba of a "Solidarity-Type" Movement for Peaceful
and Gradual Liberalization: Probabilities and Impact
The elements of a Cuban solidarity-type movement could include labor,
the churches, and other groups. This analysis would examine whether
there are means to encourage the growth of non-violent opposition to
the Castro regime and whether this could weaken it or reduce its
subversion abroad.
-- Expulsion of Cuba from Angola or Mozambique: Impact on its Export
of Subversion
If Angola and Mozambique expel Cuban troops, would there be internal
political consequences for Cuba and would this produce any effects on
other Cuban subversive activities abroad?
-- Argentine Nuclear Device Impact on the Region
There is some evidence that Argentina intends to develop a nuclear
device. If this occurred, what would the effect be on its relations
with Brazil and Chile and on prospects for improved US relations with
Argentina?
Constantine C. Menges
Distribution:
1 - C/NIC
1 - NFAC Reg
2 - NI0/LA
Approved For Release 2008/01/14: CIA-RDP85M00366R000200080013-9