EAST SIBERIAN PETROLEUM RESOURCES

• Document Type: CREST
• Collection: General CIA Records
• Document Number (FOIA) /ESDN (CREST): CIA-RDP85S00315R000200020002-7
• Release Decision: RIPPUB
• Original Classification: T
• Document Page Count: 20
• Document Creation Date: December 21, 2016
• Document Release Date: December 5, 2008
• Sequence Number: 2
• Publication Date: September 1, 1984
• Content Type: REPORT

East Siberian
Petroleum Resources
Approved For Release 2008/12/05 : CIA-RDP85SO0315R000200020002-7
Top Secret
i 4a X39 25X1
eptem er
Copy 3 7 8
 Approved For Release 2008/12/05 : CIA-RDP85SO0315R000200020002-7
s Intelligence
tl h
East Siberian
Petroleum Resources
Office of Global Issues. Comments and queries are
welcome and may be directed to the Chief,
Strategic Resources Division, OGI,
Top Secret 25X1
GI 84-10139C
 Approved For Release 2008/12/05 : CIA-RDP85S00315R000200020002-7
East Siberian
Petroleum Resources
Key Judgments Reserve limitations in existing oil-producing areas could begin to constrain
Information available Soviet oil production by the early 1990s. To offset this potential problem,
as of 31 July 1984 the Soviets have begun to search for petroleum resources in new areas. In
was used in this report.
the areas being examined, exploration of East Siberia is furthest along.'Li-
mited funding, severe environmental conditions, and a lack of infrastruc-
ture and equipment, however, have slowed the petroleum development
activities in even that area. On the basis of our analysis of the complex ge-
ology of the East Siberian petroleum reservoirs, we believe that the Soviets
have located and drilled reservoirs containing between 500 million and I
billion barrels of proved oil reserves-at most only about 2 percent of the
estimated proved reserves. 25X1
In our judgment, the geology of the region strongly weighs against the
possibility that the Soviets will discover the giant fields necessary to
warrant a major development effort. When arrayed against the distance to
industrialized regions, the complexity of the petroleum reservoirs, and the
quantity of oil, it is doubtful that it would be cost effective in the near term
to concentrate on the development of the petroleum resources of East
Siberia even if substantial oil discoveries were found. In view of this
assessment, we expect:
? Little increase in oil exploration in East Siberia in the near term.
? Stronger Soviet efforts in exploration of offshore areas, especially the
? Development of lower quality oil reservoirs in less remote areas through
the use of enhanced oil recovery techniques 25X1
The poor prospects for major oil discoveries in East Siberia, coupled with
stagnant output in West Siberia, further increase the likelihood of a decline
in Soviet oil production during the 1990s. Given the seven- to 10-year
leadtime involved in bringing new oil deposits into commercial produc-
tion-even in the unlikely event that major discoveries are made in East Si-
beria-the production would not have much impact until the mid-1990s at
the earliest.) 25X1
Top Secret - 25X1
C1 R4-I01 ?QC
 East Siberian
Petroleum Resources
Background
The growth that has characterized Soviet oil produc-
tion since the 1940s has been slowed by production
declines in the European oilfields and diminishing
growth in West Siberia (figure 1). Production pla-
teaued at about 12.4 million barrels per day (b/d) in
October 1982, and in 1983 West Siberia-which
accounts for 60 percent of national oil output-for the
first time failed to meet planned production goals.
Operational problems and adverse weather were
largely responsible for the production shortfall. Unless
new oil discoveries are made, reserve limitations in
West Siberia could increasingly constrain production,
possibly as soon as the early 1990s.
In the past, the Soviets have been able to maintain
growth in oil production by finding and developing
large new oil provinces-Urals-Volga in the 1950s
and West Siberia in the 1960s and 1970s. Spurred by
-expected declines in the West Siberian reserves later
this decade, the Soviets are examining the petroleum
potential of several new areas-the Barents, Kara,
and Sakhalin offshore areas, and onshore in East
Siberia. The exploration in East Siberia is furthest
along. Some Soviet geologists claim the region con- .
tains more oil than West Siberia, but their claim is
not substantiated by geological data. Moreover, devel-
opment of any of these areas would entail an enor-
mous commitment of investment and manpower at a
Geologic and Geographic Setting
The East Siberian platform '-the heart of the re-
gion's petroleum potential-is a vast plateau located
between.the Lena and-Yenisey Rivers (figure 2). At
3.5 million square kilometers, it is one of the largest
platforms in the world and is'mostly unexplored.
Preliminary data indicate that it contains some of the
world's oldest petroleum reservoirs. The oil-bearing
potential of ancient reservoirs is a subject of debate
among petroleum geologists in the USSR and in other
countries where similar reservoirs exist.' Most West-
Figure 1
USSR: Regional Oil Production,
1970-83
25X1
West Siberia
25X1
Other
ern geologists tend to discount their petroleum poten-
tial, but Soviet experience in East Siberia as well as
discoveries in Australia and China indicate that petro-
Exploration and Development
The Soviets have been exploring the petroleum poten-
tial of East Siberia since the early 1900s, when they
drilled four unsuccessful shallow exploration wells on
the shores of Lake Baikal. By the end of the 1930s,
large-scale mapping and shallow drilling were accom-
plished along the periphery of the East Siberian
platform. By the mid-1950s, the first strong flow of
gas and condensate from a well in the Ust-Vilyuy area
established the promise of the lower Vilyuy River
region. The concentration of exploration in that area,
however, caused the Soviets to neglect the rest of East
 Approved For Release 2008/12/05: CIA-RDP85SO0315R000200020002-7
Figure 2
The East Siberian Platform
Me unp.e Stale. the ..'
the ncmp on000n of E.tonl.. Ultra, and o.nu.nu
o the So:>t Union. Other bounty ,.p....nb.bn
~. nou.......ny.uuoro.m..
Irkutsk
China
0 1000
Kilometers
Sea of
Okhotsk
Sea of
Japan r
tapap
Exploration in East Siberia continued in the 1960s
when the Markovo oil and gas field was discovered.
Although four commercial oilfields have since been
developed-Danilov, Verkhnechon, Dulismin, and
Markovo-the success rate, or ratio of drilling to
actual oil finds, has been disappointing, especially
compared with the West Siberian basin. Moreover,
most of the discoveries in East Siberia have been gas
Results from exploration in 1981-82 revived hope for
the development of large-scale production in East
Siberia. Oil flows were obtained from the Tasyur-
yakh, Verkhnevilyuchan, and Vilyuy-Dzherbin fields,
and numerous traces of oil were observed in the Ozern
and Toynokh fields. The Danilov field, discovered in
East Siberian
Platform
Soviet Us ion
1981, yielded 2,450 b/d from three wells, and one
well in the Verkhnechon field produced 2,200 b/d.
The quality of East Siberian oil and condensate is
highly correlated with the age of the reservoirs. Oil in
the older Proterozoic and Cambrian reservoirs is
generally a light crude with a low sulfur content,
comparable to Saudi light oil (tables 1 and 2). Heavier
crudes with higher sulfur, comparable to some Mexi-
can heavy crudes, are generally found in the younger
 About 550 million years ago, a barrier reef covered
by a shallow sea extended across the East Siberian
platform. Petroleum source beds lay below the reef,
and salt and other sediments accumulated in vast
lagoons within the reef area. The salt acts as the
primary seal for the oil and gas pools in the Lena-
Tunguska province in the southwest part of the East
Siberian region. The reservoirs themselves are Cam-
brian limestones and older sandstones (appendix B).
The other petroleum-bearing province in East Siberia
is in the Khatanga-Vilyuy region. The deposits of this
region are much younger than those in the Lena-
Tunguska region, dating from the Paleozoic and
Mesozoic ages. Oil and gas pools in the Khatanga-
Vilyuy region occur as small anticlines (domes)-also
called structural traps formed by the uplift of the
strata. This uplift is probably responsible for the
predominance of gasfields in this region. Such an
uplift reduces the pressure in the reservoir, causing
gas to come outfsolution and rise to the higher part
In contrast to West Siberia, where petroleum traps
are structural and relatively uidaulted, East Siberia
contains mostly stratigraphic traps, complicated by
faulting and a lack of continuity of sedimentation
figure 3). The presence of stratigraphic traps requires
Despite these limited successes, shortages of seismic
and drilling equipment have retarded Soviet drilling
efforts in East Siberia. Drilling density is only one
well per 3,200 square kilometers, compared with one
well per 12 square kilometers in the middle Ob' region
of West Siberia. The distribution of drilling in East
Siberia is uneven and heavily concentrated in areas
near previous discoveries. Extrapolating from past
trends, we project that between 800,000 and 900,000
meters will be drilled in East Siberia between 1980
and 1985, roughly 3 percent of planned drilling
Top
25X1
more intense application of geophysical exploration
techniques and extensive drilling programs usually
not required for delineation of structural traps. At a
minimum, because of its discontinuous shape, far
more drilling should be required to measure the size
of a stratigraphic trap than a structural trap. The
drilling requirements alone would place an added
strain on already taut Soviet investment and man-
power. Moreover, given the complexity ofstratigraph-
ic traps, the Soviets could not be as certain about the
amount of recoverable oil as would be the case when
developing structural traps. 25X1
The platform is some 3,000 kilometers east of Mos-
cow, 25X1
far from the major industrial and population
centers of European Russia. With the possible excep-
tion of Antarctica, the climate of East Siberia is the
worst in the world. The economic activity that does
exist in the region, including oil exploration, is
concentrated alon the rivers, the area's main trans-
portation arteries Population density is 25X1
only one person per square kilometer. Although the
Soviets have emphasized the need to develop the 25X1
natural resources of remote regions of the country,
.including East Siberia, the region has been given only
a small share of total investment allocations. Despi 25X1
a lack of precise data, we can say that, given the
complicated geology, the infrastructure requirements,
and severe climate, costs of petroleum production in
East Siberia probably would be about the highest in
the USSR. 25X1
The Reserve Base
The size and quality of reserves will ultimately deter-
mine Soviet development of the East Siberian plat-
form and its contribution to future Soviet oil produc-
tion 4 The Soviets have already demonstrated in West
Siberia that they will develop remote areas if the
quality and quantity of oil justify the enormous
The term quality as applied to Soviet reserves refers to the
characteristics of the oil-density, viscosity, and chemical composi-
tion-and of the reservoirs-size, depth, porosity, permeability,
temperature, and pressure-which determine the speed, ease, and
cost of oil extraction 25X1 25X1
To See t 1,
25X1
 Figure 3
East Siberia: Types of Oil and Gas Traps
Source: Geology of 0il and Gas in the
Siberian Platform; Kontrovich, Surkova,
and Trafimuk; Moscow, "NEDRA" 1981.
investment. On the basis of our geologic analysis of
East Siberia, we estimate that the Soviets have locat-
ed and drilled wells in reservoirs containing between
500 million and 1 billion barrels of proved oil reserves.
This amount represents at most 2 percent of estimated
Soviet reserves and is sufficient to support only 40 to
80 days of national production at the current rate of
output. Moscow has also delineated areas containing
an estimated 3-11 billion barrels of potential re-
serves-amounts that can be regarded only as specu-
lative at this phase. Of the few estimates available on
the East Siberian petroleum potential, our estimate of
proved and potential reserves is lower than those of
Our geological analysis indicates that the quality of
East Siberian oil reservoirs is much worse than that of
the reservoirs in West Siberia. The reservoirs in East
Siberia are deep, averaging about 2,800 meters (with
some as deep as 4,000 meters), compared with an
average depth of 2,200 meters in West Siberia.
Moreover, the reservoirs are characterized by ex-
tremely low porosity and permeability,' thereby re-
ducing well flow rates and raising drilling require-
ments (table 1)
' We have not made an estimate of natural gas reserves in East
Siberia. Other US agencies place conventionally recoverable gas
resources in a range between 72 and 278 trillion cubic feet (tcf) with
158 tcf as a mean gas reserve base. In addition, gas-hydrate
deposits in the northern permafrost area are estimated to contain
possibly 27 tcf of recoverable gas.
' Porosity is the percentage of rock bulk volume occupied by open or
pore space in which oil can accumulate; Permeabilit is a measure
of ease with which fluids move through pore space. 25X1
 Approved For Release 2008/12/05 : CIA-RDP85SO0315R000200020002-7
op ~wecret
Table I
East Siberia: Physical Characteristics of Proterozoic and Lower
Cambrian Petroleum-Bearing Horizons
Age
Suite
Productive Horizon
(Lithology)
Thickness
(meters)
Porosity
(percent)
Permeability
(millidarcys)
Early Cambrian
Angara
Kelorskiy
(carbonate)
16 to 30
1.4 to 7.0
0 to 185
Bil'chir
(carbonate)
60 to 120
0.5 to 11.0
0 to 24
Bulay
Birkin
(carbonate)
90 to 100
0.06 to 1.0
0 to 253
Bel'ya
Atovo
(carbonate)
60 to 90
0.3 to 16.0
0 to 24
Khristovorova
(carbonate)
50 to 64
0.5 to 1.5
0 to 100
Usol'ye
Balykhtin
(carbonate)
9 to 10
0.6 to 8.0
Fractures up to 10
Osa
(carbonate)
15 to 100
0.1 to 25.0
Up to 163
Ust'-kut
(carbonate)
Up to 90
0.7 to 12.0
0 to 36
Early Cambrian to Vendian
Preobrazhenka
(carbonate)
17
0.3 to 12.0
0 to 8
Verkhnetarsk
(sandstone)
Vendian (Proterozoic)
Parfenovo
(sandstone)
Yaraktin
(sandstone)
Markovo
(sandstone)
Bezymyannyy
(sandstone and
conglomerate)
East Siberia in the Years Ahead
In our judgment, the distance from the economic
heartland and the extreme environment will cause the
Soviets to defer any major exploration of East Siberia
at least through the 1980s. Total drilling in the area
may increase to about I million meters during the
next five-year plan, which would still represent only a
minor increase and a small fraction of the total Soviet
Our geologic evaluation of the areas that the Soviets
are targeting indicates that these reserve additions
will not be large. Most of the petroleum in East
Siberia is in fractured carbonate reservoirs formed by
stratigraphic trapping and faulting, making them very
difficult to locate and requiring the use of sophisticat-
ed geophysical equipment and techniques. Unless the
Soviets acquire such equipment, especially the spe-
cialized seismic gear,' success in locating East Siberi-
an traps is not likely to improve over the currently 25X1
The geology of East Siberia strongly weighs against
the possibility that the Soviets will discover the large
fields necessary to trigger a major development effort.
' The Soviets will need to procure Western seismic equipment that
is capable of delineating complicated stratigraphic traps, such as
common-depth-point reflection seismic gear, computers, and soft-
ware to process the data.
 Table 2
East Siberia: Oil and Condensate Characteristics
Depth Reservoir Choke Oil Condensate Gas Condensate/ Gas/Oil Ratio Specific Gravity Specific Gravity Sulfur Content Formation Pressure Temperature
(meters) (millimeters) (barrels per day) (barrels per day) (million cubic feet Gas Ratio of Oil of Condensate (percent) (kilograms per C)
per day) square centimeter)
Preobrazhenka 1,690 Middle Moty
(Preobrazhenka)
Kuyumba 2,170 Middle Moty 11.3 2,520 70
(dolomite)
 Figure 5
East Siberian Drilling, 1950-90
1,000
r
750 r
500
250
On a worldwide basis, 82 percent of the 300 giant oil
and gas fields discovered has had no major sedimenta-
tion discontinuities or faulting in their cross sections.
The prevalence of such unconformities throughout the
petroleum-bearing areas of East Siberia greatly low-
ers the odds that the Soviets will find fields compara-
ble to Romashkino or Samotlor, which stimulated the
rapid development of the Urals-Volga and West
Siberia, respectively
The low probability of major oil discoveries in East
Siberia is further supported by the low production of
analogous reservoirs in the Amadeus basin in Austra-
lia and the Tientsin area in China. Although oil
discoveries have been reported in these regions, the
reserves are relatively small. In addition, the geologi-
cal similarity between the East Siberian stratigraphic
section and "sub-salt" areas of the Northwest Territo-
ries in Canada suggests that the area is probably gas
prone. Exploration in the Canadian areas has yielded
gas to oil reserves in a ratio of more than 2,000:1.
Even if the Soviets find a giant oil or gas field in East
Siberia, the cost of development of such fields will
Toro ecret
25X1
probably be prohibitive, at least in the near term. We
believe any development of production capacity in this
decade, and probably the next, would be limited to
small amounts for local use- 25X1
Although existing evidence indicates that develop-
ment of the East Siberian reserve base may not be
economical, further exploration could improve the
prospects. According to unclassified Soviet literature,
Moscow has stated its determination to search for new
and larger petroleum deposits in the area. We believe
exploration in East Siberia will be largely driven by
academic and scientific interest in the unique reser-
voirs and reluctance to abandon a virgin area in the
face of declining prospects in older regions. This effort
is likely to result in the addition of increments to the
reserve base into the 1990s. 25X1
Implications for Soviet Oil Production and Western
Imports
The lackluster results of the exploration work in East
Siberia is probably no surprise to the Soviets. Despite
some optimistic remarks in the press and scientific
literature, Soviet long-range planning indicates little
expectation of much production in East Siberia in the
near term. This will force the Soviets to look else-
where to find another petroleum province and to make
greater efforts to hold production as high as possible
in producing regions. To do either, the Soviets will
need to step up imports of Western (largely US)
petroleum production equipment and technology
Geologically, the Barents Sea is the most likely 25X1
candidate for petroleum discoveries, and exploration
suggests that the Soviets have come to the same '
conclusion. Locating and developing these deposits
will increase the need for sophisticated equipment and
know-how, especially as operations move into deeper
waters. Some of this equipment is subject to trade
controls, however, because of its potential military 25X1
 For onshore deposits, the Soviets are counting on
Western enhanced oil recovery (EOR) technology to
increase the recovery from older fields and to produce
underdeveloped fields that contain heavy oil. In the
past six years, the Soviets have spent more than $60
million to acquire FOR equipment, chemicals, and
plants largely from the United States, Italy, and
Japan. We expect that they will continue to purchase
large amounts of FOR technology, much of which will
probably be earmarked for use in West Siberia. We
also anticipate that the Soviets will continue import-
ing other types of Western equipment and technology,
such as submersible pumps, drill pipe, and gaslift
The poor prospects for major oil discoveries in East
Siberia, coupled with stagnant production in West
Siberia, increase the likelihood of a decline in Soviet
oil production during the 1990s. Whether Moscow is
willing to commit the resources required to achieve
any further increase in oil production or to spend hard
currency to import Western technology will depend on
how quickly West Siberian reserves begin to constrain
production. In any event, we expect the Soviets to
push development of lower quality fields and reser-
voirs in less remote areas where infrastructure is
TOP Secret 10
 Appendix B .
East Siberian Platform:
Distribution of Oil and Gas
in Selected Areas
 Figure B-1
Angara-Lenskya, Nepsko-Botuobin, Severa Tunguska,
Bai Kit, Katangska, and Pricyno Enisey
Oil and gas-bearing
Severn Tunguska
Angara-Lenskya
Nepsko-Botuobin
areas
y
m
c
?cv
a
it
g
Y
Fields and
5
e
e
Fields and
Legend
exploration
z
r
Y
a
e
s
exploration
n
areas
Y
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]
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areas
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'L
j
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Era
Formation
Lithologic
E
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0
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,
,
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Y
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umn
m
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Litvintsev
?
0
0
N
~
Litvintsev
Field
?
0
A
^
?
Early Cambrian
Angara
C
11
1
Angara
Commercial flow
.
?
from single wells
?
0
A
C C
?
?
?
?
?
?
?
?
?
^
^
Show ? 0 A ^
C C
~
~
Il
l
Bulay
Bulay
11
11
?
?
?
?
~
~
Limestone
Belaya
?
?
?
?
?
?
~
?
~
~
~I
t?
BelaYa
.
I
Dolomite
?
A
?
?
Clayey dolomite
Use]
C
~
a
a
a
?
_
?
?
?
U
^
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C
C
.
.
E
N
O
.
N
.
.
.
~
C Salt
C
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C
11
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0
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I
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sa
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~
t~
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Iktekh
Sandstone
Alternating sandstone,
0
?
siltstone, and clay
-_____
Basement
0
0
?
-
'?
Vendian
Impermeable rock
0
?
?
?
0
0
^
0
?
?
?M
?
?
?
?
?
?
?
0
0
?
?
Kharistan
ONE Salt seals
?
Source: Geology of Oil and Gas m the
Bochugunor
Siberian Plarl rm; Konunvich. Surkova. and
?
'
?
?
?
1
Verkne
NEDRA
1981.
Tregmuk; Moscow.
?
?
?
Viloshan
Riphean
Ushakov
A
?
25X1
Archean
-
 Figure B-2
Vilyuy and Cis-Verkhoyansk
Era
Fields and
exploration
areas
Formation
~
9
h
O
[-
L
t
O
O
o
rn
t
I?'
Z
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7
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T
cCi
9
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T
v
C
L
Z
Legend
O
0
O
U
0
Pools
0
0
Upper Jurassic
Bergein
?
Shows
IS
0
Marykchan
ON
Nizhnevilyuy
?
?
Source: GeoloKv of Oil and Gas in rh
Plarlonn: Kontrovich, Surko
Siberian
Yakutsk
-
Tralmuk: Moscow,NEDRA1981.
Mid-Jurassic
Suntar
Lower Jurassic
Kyzylsyr
Q0
Q
0
-
0
-
ON
Q
Q
O
Q
Q
Q
Upper Triassic
Begidzhan
Lower Triassic
Monom
Q
Q
Q
QU
Tagandzhin
Q0
Q0
Q
Q
Q
?^
Q
Q
?^
Q
o
Nizhnekelter
Q
Q
?
Q0
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-
Q
?
Upper Permian
Q
Q
Q
Q
Q
Q
Q
Q
Q
?^
Q
Q
0
-
5X1
To See t
25X1
 Figure B-3
Yenisey-Khatanga
Era
Fields and
exploration
areas
Formation
.S
d
o
c
,~,
o
ei
~
N
Z
O
~
v
~
m
j
N
0
U 3
O
Upper
Tanam
^
Cretaceous
Messoyakha
?
Source: Geology of Oil and Gas in the
Nasonov
Siberian Platform: Konirovich, Surkova, and
"
Trafimuk; Moscow, "NEDRA
1981.
Dorozhkov
Dolgan
?
??
Lower
Cretaceous
-
Yakovlev
A
Malokhet
O
O
O
0
0
Sukhodudin
0
0
0
0
0 1
0
^
O
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^
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^
?
?
---
-
---
i
Mid
J
Yanovstanov
rass
u
c
-
Sigov
0
Tochin
Malyshev
Leont'yev
Vym
?
0
Laydin
Lower Jurassic
Dzhangod
Levin
Zimnyaya
0
 Approved For Release 2008/12/05 : CIA-RDP85SO0315R000200020002-7
Top Secret