INTELLIGENCE ADVISORY COMMITTEE PROGRESS REPORT

• Document Type: CREST
• Collection: General CIA Records
• Document Number (FOIA) /ESDN (CREST): CIA-RDP85S00362R000200140020-2
• Release Decision: RIPPUB
• Original Classification: S
• Document Page Count: 6
• Document Creation Date: December 14, 2016
• Document Release Date: December 4, 2002
• Sequence Number: 20
• Publication Date: January 14, 1952
• Content Type: REPORT

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Security Information
IAC-PR-21
14 January 1952
INTELLIGENCE ADVISORY COMMITTEE
PROGRESS REPORT
PROJECTS COMPLETED
1.
SE-20:
The Probable Consequences of Certain Possible US Courses
of Action with Respect to Communist China and Korea
,
published 22 December 1951.
2.
NIE-29/2:
Probable Develo ments in Yugoslavia and the Likelihood of
Attack upon Yugoslavia, through 192, published
Januar
',
y.
3.
NIE-48:
Likelihood of the Deliberate Initiation of Full-Scale
War b the USSR A ainst the US and Its Western Allies
Prior to the End of 1 2, published January.
4.
NIE-55:
Communist Capabilities and Probable Courses of Action in
Korea through Mid-1952, published 7 December 1951.
A. Intelligence Estimates
PROJECTS IN PROCESS
5? 5E-21: Probable Developments in the Republic of Panama through
Mid-1952
Pricey: Urgent
Status: Requested by the Department of State on 10 January.
Requirements have been discussed with OIR, who will submit
a draft to 0/NE about 16 January. It is proposed to
circulate a draft to the IAC for consideration Thursday,
24 January.
6. NIE-35/1: Probable Developments in Indochina
Pri ority: High
Status; G-2 on 18 December requested a revision on NIE-35.
Terms of reference were approved by the IAC agencies on
11 January. Contributions are due on 28 January,
* Priorities used in decreasing order of urgency
are: Crash, Urgent, High, Routine and Deferred.
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7. NIE-40: Potential Military, Economic, and Scientific Accretions
to the USSR Resulting from the Accuisition of Western
Europe before Mid-1952
Priority: Routine
Status: Scheduled by O/NE in late May 1951 (see Item 14,
IAC-D-1, dated 1 November 1950). Awaiting EIC contri-
butions. Receipt of final papers will probably be delayed
until the end of January.
8. NIE-45: Likelihood of a Soviet Attempt to Promote a Broad
Relaxation of Tensions ~-'
Priority: High
Status: Initiated by ONE and authorized by the DCI on
29 August. Awaiting draft of State.
9. NTT,.-46: Probable Developments in Iran
Priority: High
Status: A review of NIE-6 was directed by the IAC on
10 September (see Item 8 of IAC-M-44). A Board draft was
circulated to the IAC representatives on 14 January. A
meeting is scheduled on 21 January to discuss this draft.
10. NIE-47: Communist Intentions and Capabilities in Asia
Priority: Routine
U. NIE-49: Strategic Importance of Sweden
Priority: Routine
12. NIE-50: The Current Situation and Probable Developments in Eastern
Germany through 1952
Priority: Urgent
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13. NIE-52: Probable Future Orientation of Japan
Priority: Routine
Status: Initiated by ONE and authorized by the DCI
on 11 October. Contributions have been received and a
draft is being prepared in ONE. Target date for draft
to Board is 1 February.
14. NIE-56: Likelihood of Loss of Important Economic Resources in
Selected Foreign Areas
Priority: Routine
Status: A series of estimates to cover this subject
authorized by the IAC on 11 October at the request of
G-2. Contributions to Part I (Economic) are being
handled through the EIC. A working group of the EIC
has been appointed and a tentative deadline for contri-
butions on the first two areas set for 30 January. IAC
representatives agreed that Part II (Factors Affecting
Availability) and Part III (Conclusions) would not be
taken up until contributions to Part I had been received.
15. NIE-57: Probable Political Developments in the West German
Situation during 1952
Priority: High
Status: Initiated by O/NE and approved by the DCI on
2b-October. A Board draft was circulated to the IAC
representatives on 15 January. A meeting has been schedule(
for 22 January to discuss this draft.
16. NIE-58: Relations between the Chinese Communist Regime and the
USSR: Their Present Character and Probable Future Courses
Priority: Routine
Status: Approved by the IAC (see Item 1, IAC-D-1) and
scheduled by ONE in early November. Defense agency con-
tributions have been received. State and O/RR contribution.
are now due on 31 January.
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17. NIL-59: Relative Strategic Importance of East-Test Trade to the
Soviet Orbit and to the Rest of the i:orld
Priority: Routine
Status: InitiateCt in response to NSC requirement (see
NSCmemorandum to Special Committee on East-West Trade,
Gated 6 October, enclosing memorandum, dated 4 October
from air. Dulles to Executive Secretary, NSC). On 16 Novem-
ber, the Project was referred to the Economic Intelligence
Committee by the IAC representatives and a tentative dead-
line for completion of its work set for 1 ;March 1952.
1C:. NIL-60 Soviet Air Defense Ca 414t4
~
(Part I):
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Communism in the Period 1952-1953
eri oorrit : Routine
ss o Indian Sub -continent to
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Priority: Routine
Status: Initiated by the Office of Scientific Intelligence,
an pap roved by the IAC on 1 November. The meeting of the
representatives on terms of reference was held on 3 December
Deadline for contributions has been extended from 15 January
to the 25th,
19. NIL-60 Soviet Civil Defense Capabilities
(Part ii):
20. NIL-60
(Part III) :
Priority: Routine
Status: Requested by the Department of State and authorized
by he IAC on 15 November. Awaiting completion of 0/SI
study on this subject. Target date: 15 January. Indi-
cations are that this date will have to be extended.
Soviet Programs to Disperse Industry and Stockpile
Priiorit: Routine
Status: Partially in fulfillment of State Department
request (see Part II). Authorized by the IAC on 15 Novem-
ber. IAC representatives approved terms of reference on
27 December. The Office of Research and Reports, CIS., is
to prepare contribution by 23 February
21. NIE-61: Conseguances of the T-- -P +V1_
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Status: Authorized by the IAC on 20 December at the
request of the Department of State. Terms of reference
are being prepared in O/NE. Target date for craft terms
of reference to Board is 15 January.
22. LIE, -.62: 0 Probable Developments in Guatemala through 1952, and
Possible Conaequenc~ es for U. S. Security Interests
Priority: High
Status: Authorized by the IAC on 20 December in response
to an internal CLi request. .i meeting of the IAC repre-
sentatives to uiscuss terms of reference has been
scheduled for lt' January.
B. Other Items of Concern to the Committee
23. Economic Capabilities for filar of the USSR and. Its Satellites
24. List of Indicators of Soviet Intentions to Initiate General War
IAC-.D.-33, E-33 1, D-33/2, VW-vi-43, iii-50
Scheduled by L:C on 30 August at the request of G-2. Report
of .d Hoc Committee tentatively approved 1 Novea.ber. The views of
each agency resulting from further study were requested 10 December.
These are being reviewed and a report is being prepared for the Il-:C.
Proposed release of list to MUO (L';C-i)?-33 2) to be discussed after
authority is clarified by revision of NSCID-1.
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27. National Intelligence Estimates Su port for NATO
IAC-D-3 , D-3 1, IAC- 1-S3
The G-2 proposal to release to SHA?E RIM-33 "Soviet Control
of the European Satellites and Their Econowic and iIiilitary Contri-
bution to Soviet rower through iiid-1953" has raised the general
question of making NIE's available to the NATO countries. The Irn,C
on 14 December decided to postpone action pending clarification of
the authority to disseminate national intelligence to foreign govern-
ments.
28. Revision of NSCID-1 (IAC-D-40)
Proposed wording has been discussed? among the agencies and
is ready for consideration at the next meeting of the LAX.
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