INTELLIGENCE ADVISORY COMMITTEE PROGRESS REPORT

• Document Type: CREST
• Collection: General CIA Records
• Document Number (FOIA) /ESDN (CREST): CIA-RDP85S00362R000200140022-0
• Release Decision: RIPPUB
• Original Classification: S
• Document Page Count: 18
• Document Creation Date: December 14, 2016
• Document Release Date: December 4, 2002
• Sequence Number: 22
• Publication Date: April 21, 1952
• Content Type: REPORT

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IAC-PR-23
21 April 1952
INTELLIGENCE ADVISORY.COMP-IITTEE
PROGRESS REPORT
PROJECTS COMPLETED
3. NIE-27/l: Chinese Communist Capabilities and Intentions with
Respect to Taiwan, published 1 April 1952.
4. NIE-49: Sweden's Position in the East-West Conflict, published
26 March 1952.
1. SE-23: Prospects for an Inclusive Middle East Defense
Organization, published 17 March 1952
2. SE-24: Communist Charges of US Use of Biological Warfare,
published 25 March 1952.
5. NIE-60: Civil Defense in the USSR, will be published approximately
24 April 1952.
6. Dissemination of National Intelligence to Foreign Governments
7AC-D- 0-F5 2 ? Revision of NSCID 1 clarifying
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the authority for such release was approved by the NSC
on 28 March. The procedures for obtaining IAC approval
have been adopted, and agreement has been reached with
respect to the release of the four cases that were pending
(IAC-D-453).
9. Foreign Intelligence and Related Activities (IAC-D-29/8, M-67)
IAC approved Annex 6 for the revision of NSC 114 series.
S-E-C-R-E-T
IAC-PR-23
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IAC-PR-23
21 April 1952
10. NIE-1+5: Likelihood of a Soviet Attempt to Promote a Broad
Relaxation of Tensions
Status: Initiated by ONE and authorized by the DCI on
29 August. In view of undue delay in preparation of
draft and the workload imposed by the recent scheduling
of NIE-614 (Parts I and II) and NIE-65, the Board of
National Estimates on 14 April cancelled this project sub-
ject to approval of IAC. Should State submit a draft at
a later date, the estimate can be rescheduled.
A. Intelligence Estimates
11. SE-25: Communist Short-Term Intentions in Korea
? Priority: Urgent
Status: Scheduled by the IAC on 114 April. Target date,
2+ 1April. IAC representatives will meet on a draft on
22 April.
12. NIE-140: Potential Military, Economic, and ;Scientific Accretions
to the USSR Resulting from the Acquisition of Western
Europe before Mid-1952
Priority: Routine*
Status: Scheduled by 0/NE in late may (see Item 114, IAC-D-1,
dated 1 November 1950). Referred for action to EIC in June,
1951. Preliminary drafts have now been received. EIC draft
being finalized.
13. NIE-1+7: Communist Intentions and Capabilities in Asia
Priority: Routine
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*Priorities i n - order of urgency
are: Crash, Urgent, High, Routine and Deferred
S-E-C-R-E-T
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21 April 1952
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IAC-PR-23
21 April 1952
14. NIE-52: Probable Future Orientation of Japan
Priority: Routine
Status: Initiated by ONE and authorized by the DCI on
11 October. Contributions have been received and a draft
is being reviewed in ONE.
15. NIE-53/1: Review of "Probable Soviet Courses of Action with Respect
to Germany During 1952" in the Light of Recent Soviet Tactics
Priority: Urgent
Status: ONE draft will be discussed with IAC representatives
on 23 April.
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16. NIE-56: Likelihood of Loss of Important Economic r;e~ es in
Selected Foreign Areas
Priority: Routine
Status: A series of estimates to cover this subject author-
ized by the IAC on 11 October at the request of G-2. Con-
tributions to Part I (Economic) are being handled through
the EIC. Contributions to ONE on the first areas are expected
about 23. April. IAC representatives agreed that Part II
(Factors Affecting Availability) and Part III (Conclusions)
would not be taken up until contributions to Part I had been
received.
17. NIE-58: Relations between the Chinese Communist Regime and the USSR:
Their Present Character and Probable Future Courses
Priority: Routine
Status: Approved by the IAC (see Item 1, IAC-D-1, dated
1 November 1950) and scheduled by ONE in early November
1951. All contributions have been received. A draft is
being prepared in ONE.
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S -E -C -R -E-T
IAC-PR-23
21 April 1952
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IAC-PR-23
21 April 1952
18. NIE-59: Relative Strategic mpd:.-tance of East-West Trade to the
Soviet Orbit and to the Rest of the World
Priority: Routine
Status: Initiated in response to NSC requirement (see
NSC memorandum to Special Committee on East-West Trade,
dated 8 October, enclosing memorandum, dated 4 October
from Mr. Dulles to Executive Secretary, NSC). On 16 Nov-
ember, the Project was referred to the EIC by the IAC
representatives. Deadline for submission of final con-
tribution to the EIC working group is 29 April. Target
date for submission of working group draft to EIC is 29 May.
Target date for review of final paper and presentation to
ONE by EIC is 15 June.
19. NI:D-61: ConseSL~tences of Communist Control over the Indian
Subcontinent
Pri ority: Routine
Status: Authorized by the IAC on 20 December at the re-
quest of the Department of State. IAC representatives
met on terms of reference on 28 March. Contributions are
due on 25 April.
20. NIE-63: Frances's Prospective Ability to Play a Major Role in
the Western Security System
Priority: Routine
Status: Authorized by the IAC on 13 March at the sugges-
tion of the Board of National. Estimates. IAC represen-
tatives met on terms of reference on 7 April. Contributions
are due on 13 June.
21. NIE-6I Soviet Capabilities fo G 1 W
r e
(Part I):
nera aI through 1V11d-1953
Priority: High
Status: Authorized by the IAC on 13 March at the sugges-
tion of the Board of National Estimates. Target date:
15 May. IAC representatives met on terms of reference on
4 April. Contributions are due on 28 April.
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S-E-C-R-E-T
IAC-PR-23
21 April 1952
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IAC-PR-23
21 April 1952
22. NIE-64+
(Part IT):
Probable Soviet Courses of Action, through Mid-1953
Priority: High
Status: Authorized by the IAC on 13 March at the,
suggestion of the Board of National Estimates. Target
date: 15 June. Terms of reference are being prepared
in ONE.
23. NIE-65: Soviet War Potential, ma-1953 Mid-1957
Priority: Routine
Status: Authorized by the IAC on 13 March at the
suggestion of the Board of National Estimates. Terms
of reference are being prepared in ONE.
24. NIE-66: Probable Developments in Argentina
Priority: High
Status: Requested by the Department of State and
authorized by the IAC on 27 March. Target date: 1 May.
IAC representatives met on terms of reference on 7 April.
All contributions received except State Department's,
which is due on 21 April.
25. NIE-67: Prarbable De re l nta in VaneZuela, with Part;, aular
US of Strategic Materials
zbility to the
Priority: Routine
Status: Requested by the Department of State and authorized
by the IAC on 27 March. Target date: 1 July. Terms of
reference will be considered by IAC representatives on
22 April.
26. NIE-68: Probable Developments in Chile with Particular Reference
to the Implications of the Electoral Period -~'
Priority: Routine
Status: Requested by the Department of State and author-
ized by the IAC on 27 March. Target date: 15 July. Terms
of reference are being prepared in ONE.
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IAC-PR-23
21 April 1952
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IAC-PR-23
21 April 1952
Except as otherwise noted, the following
projects were initiated by CIA and approved
by SIC for production.
27. Foreign Activities and Potential in Cloud Explosives
Estimated Date of Publication: May 1952
Status: Initiated by SIC in May 1951. CIA is producing draft with
assistance of SIC agencies.
28. Soviet and Satellite Activities and Potential in the Production and
Use of Catechol
Estimated Date of Publication: 1 May 10.52
Status: Requested by Air Force in May 1951. CIA draft, including
Navy and Air Force contributions, forwarded to SIC agencies for
review and concurrence. Concurred in by SIC agencies on 17 March
1952. Being published.
29. Status of Soviet Medical Research
Estimated Date of Publication: July 1952
Status: First draft under preparation by CIA. Contributions being
received from SIC agencies. Will be coordinated through the JMSIC.
30. Status of Soviet Developments in the Field of Physics
Estimated Date of Publication: May 1952
Status: Contributions have been received from SIC agencies. First
draft will be circulated to SIC members on 2 May.
31. Status of Soviet BW Program
Estimated Date of Publication: May 1952
Status: Prepared by CIA. Contributions have been received from the
SIC agencies. First draft has been reviewed by JBWIC. Final. draft
under preparation by CIA.
32. Status of Soviet CST Program
Estimated Date of Publication: June 1952
? status: Under preparation by CIA with the assistance of SIC agencies
through the JCWIC
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Security Information
IAC -PR -23
21 April 1952
33. Sta
tus of Soviet Metallurgy Program
Est
imated Date of Publication: November 195
2
Sta
tus: Terms of Reference approved by the
ad hoc committee on
1 N
ovember 1951. Contributions from SIC age
ncies are expected by
1
September. (The part of this paper which
covers Powder Metal-
lur
dra
34+. Dev
gy requested by SIC in May 1951 will be a
ft form in May.)
elopment and Utilization of Science in th
vailable separately in
e Soviet Union
Est
imated Date of Publication: September 19
52
Sta
tus: CIA is producing first draft with a
ssistance of SIC agencies
.
B.
Other Items of Concern to the Committee
35. Economic Capabilities for War of the USSR and Its Satellites
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36. List of Indicators of Soviet intentions to Initiate General War
ITC-D-33, D-33 1, D-33 2, IAC-M- r3, M-50
Scheduled by IAC on 30 August at the request of G-2. Report
of ad hoc committee tentatively approved 1 November. The views
of each agency resulting from further study have been received,
and a report prepared for the IAC.
37. Coordination of Intelligence in Panama (IAC-M-61, M-62)
A mutually satisfactory formula is to be worked out by
State Department and the Military Services.
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S -E -C -R -E-T
IAC-PR-23
21 April 1952
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Security Information
IAC-PR-23
21 April 1952
38.
39. Paper Mills and Fabrication (IAC-M-66)
An IAC group, headed by SO, is currently studying the
problems involved in this question.
S -E-C -R-E-T
IAC-PR-23
21 April 1952
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S-E-C??'-E-T
Securi ormation
IAC-PR-2l.
3 June 1952
INTELLIGENCE ADVISORY COMMITTEE
PROGRESS REPORT
PROJECTS COMPLETED
1. SE-25: Military Indications of a Possible Large-Scale Communist
Attack Korea in the Immediate Future
2 April 1952, , published
2. SE-27: Probable Effects of Various Possible Courses with Respect to Communist China, to beof Action
June 952, published about
3. SE-28: Cons
e
quences of the Future Revelation of the Contents of
Certain Government Documents Limited Distribution
Officials Only; published May 1.952. - US
NIE-52: The Probable Future Orientation of Ja an
29 May 1952. , published
5. NIE-531: Review of Probable Soviet Courses of Action with Respect
to Germany During 19 2 in the Li ht of Recent Soviet
Tactics, published 1 May 1952.
6. List of Indicators of Soviet
IAC-D-33 Series Intentions to Initiate General War
, M- 3, M-50, M-70
Approved by the IAC on 15 May. The Watch Commi
arrange for appropriate research to be under akenee will
7. Pa er Mills and Fabrication (IAC-M>66)
An IAC group, headed by SO, has been established to work
on these problems on a continuing basis.
8. Procedures for Reducing Intelligence Deficiencies in National
Intelligence Estimates 1 MAV 7oc, ,._ __
is
Agreed that IAC representatives will produce Jointly
ments of intelligence deficiencies in a estimates
smateand that such statements need not be forrwardeda to tIAC for formal action,
S E C R E T
IACPR-2 r
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PROJECTS IN PROCESS
S-E-C-R-E-T
Security Information
IAC-PR-24
3 June 1952
Intelligence Estimates
10. SE-29: Offensives on
t
s
ies of the Chinese Nationalists,
and. Probable Reactions to a US Decision to Pre re the
Nationalists for Offensive Operations against the Chinese
Communists
Priority: High*
Status: Initiated by ONE on 5 May at the request of the
Steering Committee of the NSC Senior Staff. Target date
for draft to IAC is 5 June. IAC representatives met on
Board draft on 3 June.
11. SE-30: Probable Soviet Courses of Action with Res--- ct to Berlin
Priority: Crash
Status: Scheduled by the IAC on 29 May. Estimate is to
be considered by IAC on 5 June.
12. NIB-40: Potential Military, Economic, and Scientific Accretions
to the USSI? Rest~lti:Zg from the Acquisition of Western
Europe in the Foreseeable future
Priority: Routine
Status: Scheduled by 0/NE in late May 1951 (see Item 14,
IAC 1, dated 1 November 1950). Referred for action to l
in June. EIC contribution has been received; a draft
is being prepared in CANE.
Priorities used in decreasing order of urgency
?re Crash, .Urgent, High.-Routine and Deferred
S-E-C-R-E-T
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Security Information
IAC-PR-24
3 June 1952
13. NIE-45: Probable Attitudes and Policies of the Free World toward
the East-West Conflict
Priority: Routine
Status: At the IAC meetings on 14 and 24 April (IAC-M-67,
para. 6, and IAC-M-68, para. 1), it was agreed that an
estimate on this general subject would replace NIB-45,
cancelled by the IAC. Terms of reference were prepared
by ONI and submitted to 0/NE on 5 May. On 13 May the
Board circulated these with recommendations for modifi-
cations. All agencies have concurred. Revised terms
of reference are being prepared in C/NE.
14. NIE-47: Communist Intentions and Capebilit3.es in Asia
Priority: Routine
?
15. NIE-56: Likelihood of Loss of Important Economic Resources in
Selected Foreign Areas
Priority: Routine
Status: A series of estimates to cover this subject
authorized by the IAC on 11 October at the request of
G-2. Contritu :ions to Part I (Economic) are being handled
through the EIC. EIC contribution on Near, Middle and Far
Eastern and South Asian. areas was received on 24 April.
0%TE is drafting terms of reference on Parts II (Factors
Affecting Availability) and III (Conclusions) for these
areas. RIC contribution on Latin America and Africa is
due 15 July.
16. NIE-58: Relations Between the Chinese Communist Regime and the
USSR: Their Present Character and Probable Future Courses
Priority: Routine
0
Status: Approved by the IAC (see Item 1, IAC-D-l, dated
1 November 1950) and scheduled by 0/NE in early November
1951. All contributions have been received. A draft is
being prepared in 0/NE.
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S -E-C-R-E-T
Security Inform tion
IAC- PR-24
3 June 1952
17. NIE-59: Relative Strategic Importance of East-West Trade to the
Soviet Orbit and to the Rest of the World
Priority: Routine
Status: Initiated in response to NSC requirement (see
NSC memorandum to Special Committee on East-West Trade,
dated 8 October, enclosing memorandum, dated It October
from Mr. Dulles to Executive Secretary, NSC). On
16 November, the Project was referred to the EIC by the
IAC representatives. Target date for EIC review of
final. paper and presentation to ONE has been moved to
31 July.
18. NIE-61: Consequences of Communist Control over the Indian
Subcontinent
Priority: Routine
Status: Authorized by the IAC on 20 December at the
request of State. IAC representatives mer on terms
reference on 28 March, Contributions, due on 25 April,
were all in by 8 May. A draft is being prepared in O/NE
and will be available for Board consideration about
9 June.
19. NIE-63: France's Prospective Ability to Playa Major Role in
the Western Security System
Priority: Routine
Status: Authorized by the IAC on 13 March at the sug-
gestion of the Board of National Estimates. IAC repre-
sentatives met on terms of reference on 7 April. Con-
tributions originally due on 13 June now due 30 June
in view of scheduling of NIE-69.
20. NIE-64
(Part I): Soviet Capabilities for General War, through Mid-1953
Priority: High
Status: Authorized by the IAC on 13 March at the
suggestion of the Board of National Estimates. Target
date was 15 May. IAC representatives approved terms
of reference on It April. All contributions have been
received. A draft is being prepared in O/NE.
a7E -
IAC -PR-2
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Security Information
IAC-PR -24
3.June 1952
21. NIE-64
(Part II): Probable Soviet Bloc Courses of Action, through Mid-1953
Pri ozity: High
Status: Authorized by the IAC on 13 March at the sugges-
tion of the Board of National Estimates. Target date:
15 June. IAC representatives approved terms of reference
on 2 May. Subject to IAC approval for postponement of
deadline to IAC from 15 June to 3 July, the contributions
are due on 2 June. Defense contributions have been
received.
22. NIL-65: Soviet Bloc Ca abilities, through 1957
Priority: rity: Routine
Status: Authorized by the IAC on 13 March at the sugges-
tion of the Board of National Estimates. IAC represen-
tatives will meet on draft terms of reference on 6 June.
0 NIE-66: Probable Developments in Argentina
Priority: High
Status: Requested by State and authorized by the IAC on
27 March. IAC representatives met on a draft estimate on
26 May and on a revised draft on 2 June. On IAC agenda
for 5 June.
24-. NIE-67: Probable Developments in Venezuela
Priority: Routine
Status: Requested by State and authorized by the IAC on
2( March. Target date: 1 July. IAC representatives
approved terms of reference on 22 April. Defense contri-
butions have been received. Awaiting State contribution
which was due on 15 May.
25. NIE-68: Probable Dev
l
e
opments in Chile
Priority: Routine
Status: Requested by State and authorized by the IAC on
27 March. Target date: 15 July. IAC representatives
approved terms of reference on 29 April. Defense contri-
butions have been'received. State contribution is due on
13 June.
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IAC-PR-24
3 June 1952
26. NIE-69: Probable Developments in French North Africa, Spanish
Morocco, and Libya
Priority: High
Status: Initiated by O/NE and authorized by the IAC on
221 AApri1. Target date for completion: 1 July. IAC
representatives approved terms of reference on 1 May.
Defense contribution due 9 June; State contribution due
16 June.
27. NIE-70: Conditions and Trends in Latin America Affecting US
Security
Priority: Routine
Status: Initiated pursuant to paragraph 2f. of Estimates
program of the Board of National Estimates circulated
5 May 1952 and IAC action on ONE memo dated 29 April.
Target date: 1 August. IAC representatives approved
terms of reference on 13 May. Defense contribution due
40 16 June; State contribution due 23 June.
28. NIE-71: Probable Outlook for Italy
Priority: Routine
Status: Initiated pursuant to paragraph 2d. of Board
Program of National Estimates for Remainder of 1952,
dated 5 May 1952. Target date: 1 September. IAC
representatives approved terms of reference on 20 May.
Contributions are due on 20 August.
29. NIE-72: Probable Developments in the Union of South Africa
Priority: Routine
Status: This estimate was projected in the Program of
Estimates for the Remainder of 1952. On 21 May the IAC
concurred in scheduling the estimate. Target date:
1 September. Terms of reference are being prepared
in ONE
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S-E-C-R-E-T
IACPR--2!
3 June 1952
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Security Information
IAC-PR-24
3 June 1952
Except as otherwise noted, the following
projects were initiated by CIA and approved
by SIC for production.
30. Foreign Activities and Potential in Cloud Explosives
Estimated Date of Publication: July 1952
Status: Initiated by SIC in May 1951. CIA draft produced with assis-
tance of SIC agencies will be circulated to SIC members by 15 June for
comment and/or concurrence.
31. Soviet and Satellite Activities and Potential in the Production and
Use of. Catechol CIA,SI 5-52
Estimated Date of Publication: 15 June 1952
Status: Requested by Air Force in May 1951. CIA draft, including
Navy and Air Force contributions, forwarded to SIC agencies for
review and concurrence. Concurred in by SIC agencies on 17 March
1952. Edited;'being published.
32. Status of Soviet Medical Research
Estimated Date of Publication: July 1952
Status: First draft under preparation by CIA. Contributions have
been received from SIC agencies. Will be coordinated through the
JMS IC.
33. Status of Soviet Developments in the Field of Physics
Estimated Date of Publication: July 1952
Status: Contributions have been received from SIC agencies. First
draft will be circulated to SIC members by 15 June.
34. Status of Soviet BW Program
Estimated Date of Publication: July 1952
Status: Prepared in CIA on basis of contributions received from the
SIC agencies. First draft has been reviewed by JBWIC. Revised draft
under preparation in OSI. Publication date extended to incorporate
recently acquired data.
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S -E -C -R -E-T
IAC-PR-22
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 37. Development and Utilization of Science in the Soviet Union
Estimated Date of Publication: November 1952
Status: Upon completion of the foregoing reports, CIA will write
first draft for SIC consideration.
3a. RDB Re uest for Intelligence Estimate of Soviet Scientific and
Technological Capabilities IAC-D-51)
Status: Proposal will be discussed by the IAC June 5.
Other `ems of -)ncern to the Committee
39. Economic Capabilities for War of the USSR and Its Satellites
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IAC-PR-2l
3 June 1952
35. Status of Soviet CW Program
Estimated Date of Publication: July 1952
Status: Under preparation by CIA with the assistance of SIC agencies.
?Jill be coordinated through the JCWIC.
Status of Soviet Metallurgy Program
Estimated Date of Publication: November 1952
Status: Terms of Reference approved by the ad hoc committee on
1 November 1951. Contributions from SIC agencies are expected by
1 September. (The part of this paper which covers Powder Metallurgy
requested by SIC in May 1-051, will be available separately in CIA
draft by 15 June.
36.
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Security Information
IAC-PR-24+
3 June 1952
41. Dissemination of National Intelligence to Foreign Governments
IAC-D- 5 Series
a. In addition to items listed in IAC-D-458, the foliwoing item has
been approved for release:
5X1 42. Critical National Intelligence Objectives with Respect to Communist
China IAC-D-50, ICI-71
S-E-C-R-E-T
IAC-PR-
3 June 1952
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