SOVIET ABILITY TO PROGRESS WITHOUT IMPORTS EXCEEDS OTHER INDUSTRIALIZED COUNTRIES

• Document Type: CREST
• Collection: General CIA Records
• Document Number (FOIA) /ESDN (CREST): CIA-RDP85T00153R000100010021-7
• Release Decision: RIFPUB
• Original Classification: K
• Document Page Count: 2
• Document Creation Date: January 4, 2017
• Document Release Date: April 28, 2008
• Sequence Number: 21
• Publication Date: January 8, 1983
• Content Type: OPEN SOURCE

r ^-1-r" 1 Inited States
...... nnn0/nA/n0 . CIA Rrlr'POGTOO
A
F
Rnn0
0
7
pproved
or Role
153
100
10021
97th Congress
Henry S. Reuss, Wis.
Chairman
Roger W. Jepsen, Iowa
Vice Chairman
House:
Richard Boiling, Mo.
Lee H. Hamilton, Ind.
Gillis W. Long, La.
Parren J. Mitchell, Md.
Augustus F. Hawkins, Calif.
Clarence J. Brown, Ohio
Margaret M. Heckler, Mass.
John H. Rousselot, Calif.
Chalmers P. Wylie,-Ohio
Senate:
Willian V. Roth, Jr., Del.
James Abdnor, S. Dak.
Steven Symms, Idaho
Paula Hawkins, Fla.
Mack Mattingly, Ga.
Lloyd Bentsen, Tex.
William Proxmire, Wis.
Edward M. Kennedy, Mass.
Paul S. Sarbanes, Md.
Economist:
Richard Kaufman
224-0377
Rbint Economit Committee
EMBARGOED FOR RELEASE TO
6:00 P.M.. SATURDAY, JANUARY 8, 1983
SOVIET ABILITY TO PROGRESS WITHOUT IMPORTS
EXCEEDS OTHER INDUSTRIALIZED COUNTRIES
Washington, D.C. -- Senator William Proxmire (D-Wis.)
today released a previously classified report which shows
"the Soviet Union is perhaps the most self-reliant indus-
trialized nation."
According to a report delivered last month to a
Proxmire subcommittee hearing by a high-ranking Central
Intelligence Agency official, "...the ability of the
Soviet economy to remain viable in the absence of imports
is much greater than that of most, possibly all, other
industr;-alized economies."
The author of the report is Henry Rowen, Chairman,-
National Intelligence Council, CIA, who submitted the
report at a closed hearing of the Joint Economic Sub-
committee on International Trade, Finance, and Security
Economics, of which Proxmire is Vice Chairman.
Proxmire said in a statement from his Washington,
D.C., office, "Analysts in the West typically have focused
on Soviet economic problems. The Soviet Union is our
hi
ll
s 1s a
1_11G Vlore
reason to have accurate balanced assessments of the state
its economy. _
11of
"One of the worst things we can do is to underestimate
the economic strength of our principal adversary."
Proxmire continued, "It needs to be understood that,
while the Soviet Union has been weakened by such harmful
developments as the inefficient performance of the farm
isector and the heavy burden of defense, it is the world's
second largest economy in terms of GNP, has a large and
;cell-trained labor force, is highly industrialized, and.
possesses enormous reserves of natural resources, including
oil and gas and the relatively scarce minerals and
precious metals.
"It is sobering to reflect on the possibility that
Soviet economic trends might improve rather than grow
worse."
food. These imports are intended mainly to prevent a
decline in meat consumption and are not essential to
maintaining an adequate quantity of food consumption."
On Soviet trade, Rowen's report says, "Despite the
large-scale expansion in agricultural imports, the Soviet
Union remains basically self-sufficient with respect to
Approved For Release 2008/04/28: CIA-RDP85TO0153R000100010021-7
 Approved For Release 2008/04/28: CIA-RDP85TO0153R000100010021-7
"Despite the slowdown of the growth rate," Rowen said, "we do not
consider an economic 'collapse' -- a sudden and sustained decline in
GNP -- even a remote possibility."
The report concludes that the Soviet economy will continue grow-
ing slowly -- at an average rate of 1 to 2 percent for the foreseeable.
future, while per capita consumption could level off or even fall
slightly.
.Rowen's report says the consequences of the recent slowing of
economic growth will have two major effects:
1. Soviet leadership will face much harder choices in allocating
resources. in consumption, investment, and defense.
2. There could be further invalidation of the USSR's claim
that its economy is an appropriate model for the rest of
the world, particularly'the Third World.
The report also says, "Despite some experimentation with
decentralized forms of economic administration, the Soviet leader-
ship has remained firmly committed to strict central planning and
management of most economic activity. The justification has been that
rigorous centralization is required for fulfillment of national
objectives.
"There are weaknesses in the Soviet economic system,"the
report states, ,that even the new Andropov regime is not likely
to change."
Copies of the report are available from the Publications
Department, Joint Economic Committee, G-133 Dirksen Bldg., Wash-
ington, DC, 20510, or by calling [phone].
f .AA
19 17
Approved For Release 2008/04/28: CIA-RDP85TO0153R000100010021-7