FOIA
LETTER TO RICHARD L. LAWSON FROM HENRY S. ROWEN
Document Type:
Collection:
Document Number (FOIA) /ESDN (CREST):
CIA-RDP85T00153R000100120003-5
Release Decision:
RIFPUB
Original Classification:
K
Document Page Count:
2
Document Creation Date:
December 20, 2016
Document Release Date:
January 10, 2008
Sequence Number:
3
Case Number:
Publication Date:
August 31, 1983
Content Type:
LETTER
File:
| Attachment | Size |
|---|---|
 CIA-RDP85T00153R000100120003-5.pdf | 57.24 KB |
Body:
f Approved For Release 2008/01/10: CIA-RDP85T00153R000100120003-5
The Director of Central Intelligence
Washington, D.C. 20505
National Intelligence Council
Gen. Richard L. Lawson, USAF
Chief of Staff, SHAPE
Stuttgart, West Germany
31 August 1983
I enjoyed meeting you at Ebenhausen and our conversation. I
mentioned an excellent manuscript by an Israeli on surprise attack. A
copy is being sent to you under separate cover. It is quite long
because it is a doctoral dissertation and there are parts I imagine you
will want to scan or skip, but it is very much worth reading.
I also mentioned the National Intelligence Estimate then in
preparation on the reliability of the East European forces. I am also
sending you a copy of that Estimate. Although it doesn't go as far as I
wished in dealing with this subject, at least the principals in the
Intelligence Community have finally addressed this subject. It suggests
that there is much to be done, both on operations aspects and
intelligence ones.
Regards,
VrY
Henry S. Rowen
Chairman
Approved For Release 2008/01/10: CIA-RDP85T00153R000100120003-5
Approved For Release 2008/01/10: CIA-RDP85T00153R000100120003-5 _ __
TH?Y OF SURPRISE ATTACK - 0
Hi~?1oric-.1 Background
Ch rter 1 : S"---.)rise Attack Since 1939
1. rri rro?uction
th, pte= 2: The r ssence and Degree of Surprise Attack
Charter 3: Information and Indicators
Ch?i rter 4: Intentions and Cnpihili.ties
P:irt 2s Judpmentn.l. Rinner, and the Tntct].11rrencu Annlyni?s
The Level or the Ind ividthal Analyst
Charter 51 Concepti.ons and Incoming Information
Chapter 6s Cornitivo Biases and Ovorconfidence
Chapter 71 The Process of,I ntelligence,8nalysis
Part 3s The Environment
Chapter 81 The Close e.nviroliments The Analyst and'his Small Croup
Chapter 9s Or
i
t
p n
ra
ional Oh-,tac:les
( h'i,i,t.rr I ()s Tni.d 1 i i '''nc e n.r d t)r,rl r%i.en...M,.kr.rM
Conclusions
Chapter 1.1: What Can Be Done?
Approved For Release 2008/01/10: CIA-RDP85T00153R000100120003-5
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