SNIE ON PIPELINE ISSUES

• Document Type: CREST
• Collection: General CIA Records
• Document Number (FOIA) /ESDN (CREST): CIA-RDP85T00153R000200030034-0
• Release Decision: RIPPUB
• Original Classification: S
• Document Page Count: 4
• Document Creation Date: December 21, 2016
• Document Release Date: May 14, 2008
• Sequence Number: 34
• Publication Date: September 3, 1982
• Content Type: MEMO

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3 September 1982
MEMORANDUM FOR: C/NIC, NIO/E, NIO/USSR & NIO/WE
SUBJECT : SNIE on Pipeline Issues
1.. In the Executive Session of the 1 September NFIB the DCI noted
the Washington Post article on the DI memorandum on some selected
pipeline issues. He noted that the memo was narrowly focused on some
narrow questions posed by Secretary Buckley. The reaction to the memo,
making reference to the leak, indicates that many policymakers are
unhappy with the answers to their questions. The DCI went on to say
that we had issued other estimative pieces on the pipeline issues and
now have scattered all over town answers to discrete questions without
having the entire subject comprehensively addressed.
2. He then asked for comments on his proposal to issue a SNIE on
the pipeline issues with the purpose of comorehensively addressing all
of the issues to include highlighting the differences of opinion within
the Intelligence Community. The reaction was supportive, but no one was
ready to step forward with drafting assistance. Bill Odom volunteered
to help structure the estimate and then Casey directed the DDI to
provide drafting support to the NIC for this estimate. .
3. Maurice Ernst will be.the action officer on this estimate and
he has already met with Bob Gates to begin the arrangements. Gates,
Ernst and myself agreed that the work will not begin until next week
following the completion of the two memoranda currently being prepared
on the same subject by Maurice Ernst.
4. At the 0900 meeting with the DCI on 3 September I informed him
of the tentative schedule for the preparation.of this SNIE and mentioned
28 September as the NFIB target date. Gates then handed me a copy of a
memorandum from Bill Odom in which he had made his contribution toward
the structure of the estimate. The Odom memorandum is attached. The
subsequent discussion with Gates and Casey worked out additional details
of the schedule. Ernst will meet with Gates on Tuesday
along with drafting support se ec e by Gates. They will develop an
outline by COB Tuesday and strive for a first draft by the end of the
week.
Acting Chairman
SECRET
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DEPARTMENT THE ARMY
OFFICE OF THE A3fISTANT CHI TT*" FOR INTELLIGENCE
WAIHIN@TON. D.C. 10710
Bob,
Attached is the outline I promised for the Siberian
pipeline deal. It is rough, almost "stream of conscious
ness," but I believe it has the key structure for the
case we must make. Let me cite a few points that are no
well understood and which will provoke analyst resistanc
because they are not used to doing such analysis:
1. We must produce as full a record as possible of wh
E-W trade has done for the enormous Soviet military build
up and modernization. While this can't be done with de-
cimal point precision, it can be done in gross cases
with sufficient accuracy to provide an unambiguous answer
to "has it helped a lot? A little? Not at all? th In
what military systems has it helped most?"
2. We must compare reported profits from commercial
deals with what those deals have cost the West in
making the military threat greater. An easy example is
the CENTALIGN case where a forty-sixty million dollar
sale gave us the MX basing problem of 30-40 billion dolla
Many individual cases can be worked up, and they will be
useful far beyond the SNIE, good work to have on the shel
3. An importatn economic concept to introduce is the
European defense of non-competitive technology by exports
to East Europe. The Germans in particular cannot exprot
production technology in a number sectors that will compe
with the US.and Japan. Rather than re-tool and modernize,
they put it off and sell to the USSR. Chemicals, machine
tools, etc.'are cases. An open source book has been
written on the chemical case. Analysis of this practice
can be very useful in "unmasking" the flakey arguments
made in defense of much European E-W trade.
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4. Credits, of course, are fax?ia fairly straight
forward, but we have not put this story together well
yet.
5. Finally, the pipeline case can be reviewed against
this record and analysis of the larger experience
Now, if we make this case cogently, the policy im-
plication is to build some alliancexmxi international
bureaucracy to do this kind of analysis, judging
"alliance interests," not just German or US or French
interests as they are affected by E-W trade. If the
pipeline case catalyzed that kind of action, we could
turn the crisis into a major step forward. N
"Peaceful coexistence" means peaceful competition. Yet
NATO is organized only for miltary competiton. We need
a NATO -like structure for non-military competition.
Oh yes, one more key point: the Europeans cannot
logically asks for freer E-W trade and also expect
progress in arms control. Technology and trade embargos
are our major lever for increasing Soviet incentives to
engage in serious arms control. We must make the Europeans
face the choice: either arms control OR trade, but not
BOTH.
I hope you can use the outline. I'll be glad to
discuss it. I also am putting two peopte on the SNIE
one of whom really knows the tech transfer consequences
in gory detail. He can provide some of the cases for
the second section of the SNIE.
WILLIAM E. ODOM
Major General, USA
ACofS for Intelligence
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