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December 20, 2016
Document Release Date: 
July 24, 2007
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May 6, 1983
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PDF icon CIA-RDP85T00153R000200050048-3.pdf160.69 KB
Approved For Release 2007/07/24: CIA-RDP85T00153R000200050048-3 ? low THE DIRECTOR OF CENTRAL INTELLIGENCE National Intelligence Council NIC# 3367-83 6 May 1983 MEMORANDUM FOR: Director of Central Intelligence Deputy Director of Central Intelligence FROM . Chairman, National Intelligence Council SUBJECT : NIC Activity Report for 2-6 May 1983 I. DCI/DDCI-Assigned Tasks NIO/Near East-South Asia provided talking points to the DDCI on US policy toward Iran in preparation for a SIG meeting -- subsequently postponed -- on NSSD 4-83 (US Security Strategy for Southwest Asia). Chairman, NIC, VC/NIC (H. Meyer), D/NIC/AG (H. Ford) and AG officers met with the DCI on 4 May to discuss the work of the NIC's Analytic Group. NIC officers began drafting briefing materials on global developments and on Central America for the DCI's meeting with PFIAB on 11 May. II. Interagency Papers The draft NIE on the South Pacific, and the draft Terms of Reference for a SNIE on Andropov's approach to US-USSR issues are slated for discussion at NFIB on 10 May. Assistant NIO/Latin America obtained final clearances on a draft interagency assessment on Pinochet's Chile and had it distributed to the requester (Assistant Secretary of State Enders) and the Community. Approved For Release 2007/07/24: CIA-RDP85T00153R000200050048-3 Approved For Release 2007/07/24: CIA-RDP85TO0153R000200050048-3 ? SECRET/ III. Of Special Interest This Week Chairman, NIC, VC/NIC (C. Waterman), NIO/USSR-EE and others attended the first in a series of joing NIC-OSD/Office of Net Assessments seminars on the Soviet perception of world developments. The first speaker whose most noteworthy points were: o The USSR is overextended and would like to pull back, particularly in Afghanistan. o But the Soviets will maintain the pressure through the Cubans in Central America unless there is a large geopolitical deal with the US. o The Soviet defense effort absorbs about 25-30 percent of GNP; Moscow would like to reduce this, but is prepared to raise it to counter the US. o Soviet leaders do not understand the West and genuinely believe that the US intentionally sabotaged detente. C/NIC, together with NIO/East Asia and ~ (DC/TTAC) attended a meeting of the Export Administration Review Board on technology transfer to China. There was no resolution of outstanding differences; two papers are being prepared (by NSC and DoD). C/NIC, together with NIO/EA and others, attended a Rand conference on the Washington-Beijing-Moscow triangle; and together with A/NIO/LA, briefed Senator Bradley (D., NJ) on Central' American issues. VC/NIC (Waterman) discussed Middle East issues with officers of Brookings and Georgetown's CSIS. NIO at Large (L. Gordon) attended a symposium on NATO at the National Defense University; received briefings from DI/OGI on Arctic and Antarctic issues; and met with the director of NDU's Strategic Concepts Development Center on several areas of potential common interest with the NIC. NIO at Large (H. Heymann) met with the editors of the DIA Nuclear Proliferation Watch to review their plans for a change in publication format; and lunched with Don Gregg, the Vice President's national security staff chief, to discuss intelligence-policy interests. NIO/East Asia discussed the 1983 estimates schedule with East Asia Intelligence Community managers; attended an Asia Society meeting on South Korea; and briefed an American Enterprise Institute scholar preparing to visit East Asia. NIO/Economics attended a meeting at Commerce at the invitation of Michael Liikala, Special Assistant to Under Secretary Lionel Olmer, to Approved For Release 2007/07/24: CIA-RDP85TOO153R000200050048-3 25X1_- 25X1 I Approved For Release 2007/07/24: CIA-RDP85TO0153R000200050048-3 11 .1 TO ? discuss the implications of the debt crisis for US companies operating in Latin America. NI0/General Purpose Forces briefed officers of the Army Intelligence Threat Analysis Center (ITAC) on 2 May and the Advanced Intelligence Course at the Army War College on 5 May on the readiness of Soviet forces. He also briefed LTG Thurman, Army Vice Chief of Staff- designate, on the GPF program and current interest in unconventional warfare. NI0/Narcotics exchanged views with the Chairman, Critical Intelligence Problems Committee (CIPC) on avoiding overlap between CIPC and NIO/N activities; and arranged a discussion between Intelligence Community narcotics program managers and the DCI. NIO/Near East-South Asia provided the DCI with some thoughts on the potential pluses and minuses for Syria and Israel resulting from hostilities between them in the near term. NI0/NESA meets today with NSC staffer Geoff K emp and two NIC consultants-- to discuss the full range of NI0/S&T and STAP Chairma met with LTG Paul Gorman tn disci JCS needs for the type of S&T intelligence contained in NIE Gen. Gorman said he thought it could be very valuable in JCS long-range planning efforts and in dealing with policymakers who always ask "where is the US ahead, and where are we behind the Soviets?" NIO/Strategic programs briefed Bill Hoehn, Deputy Assistant Secretary of Defense International Security Policy, on the findings of the Soviet ABM estimate; and met with Q of Rand to discuss the findings of the draft NIE on Soviet space programs. NI0/USSR-East Europe attended an IG meeting on Romania. He also attended a debriefing of just back from the USSR. The main messag is at the Soviets want a Summit, with the only condition being that they set 50 percent of the agenda. A/NI0/USSR attended a conference on Soviet censorship. All participants agreed that repression is currently intensifying, but were encouraged by the continued defiance of the intelligentsia, which includes the dispatch of works for publication abroad. SECRET Approved For Release 2007/07/24: CIA-RDP85TO0153R000200050048-3 Approved For Release 2007/07/24: CIA-RDP85TO0153R000200050048-3 0 ? IV. Future Activities (Nothing of particular significance to report at this time.) -4- SECRET Approved For Release 2007/07/24: CIA-RDP85TO0153R000200050048-3 Approved For Release 2007/07/24: CIA-RDP85TO0153R000200050048-3 ? SUBJECT: NIC Activity Report, 2-6 May 1983 Distribution: 1 - DCI 1 - DDCI 1 - EXDIR 1 - SA/IDA 1 - ER 1 - DDI 1 - C/NIC 1 - VC/NIC 1 - D/AG 1 - Each NIO 1 - NIC/AG 1 - E0/NIC Approved For Release 2007/07/24: CIA-RDP85TO0153R000200050048-3