YUGOSLAVIA

• Document Type: CREST
• Collection: General CIA Records
• Document Number (FOIA) /ESDN (CREST): CIA-RDP85T00153R000300020031-3
• Release Decision: RIPPUB
• Original Classification: S
• Document Page Count: 1
• Document Creation Date: December 20, 2016
• Document Release Date: January 30, 2008
• Sequence Number: 31
• Publication Date: December 3, 1982
• Content Type: MEMO

Approved For Release 2008/01/30: CIA-RDP85T00153R000300020031-3
JCI.KC 1
FROM:
SUBJECT:
Yugoslavia
1. As you know, the Administration is moving at a rapid clip to cobble
together some sort of Western financial relief package for Yugoslavia.
2. Intelligence support for this effort has been of very high quality--
see the attached DDI memorandum--but I think we should push forward with
another piece.
3. It's doubtful that the Soviets will stand idly by while the West
rides in to the rescue. Indeed, the Soviets will have at their disposal a
number of potentially effective responses:
-- As they have in the past, the Soviets could punish Belgrade by
cutting oil shipments.
-- Or they could cut the level of Yugoslavian-Soviet countertrade,
which has I believe doubled in the last few years.
-- Either of these actions, if not countered, would devastate the
Yugoslavian economy.
-- Alternatively, the Soviets could so to speak bid against the West
by boosting oil shipments and enhancing the terms of trade.
-- The Soviets could also offer weapons to the Yugoslavian military
forces on terms the generals couldn't refuse. A strong alliance with the
Yugoslavian army would be immensely valuable to Moscow.
4. Should the Soviets take measures like these, it would be important
for the West to take countermeasures.
-- We might be able to supply some oil.
-- We might be able to supply weapons.
5. A SNIE that deals with these issues would be useful to policymakers
before the action starts. It would be titled something like "Likely Soviet
Responses to Western Initiatives in Yugoslavia," and it could deal with possible
Western countermeasures.
Approved For Release 2008/01/30: CIA-RDP85T00153R000300020031-3