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Document Creation Date: 
December 21, 2016
Document Release Date: 
June 17, 2008
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January 16, 1982
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PDF icon CIA-RDP85T00176R001000150057-8.pdf44.39 KB
Approved For Release 2008/06/17: CIA-RDP85TO01 76RO01 000150057-8 THE DIRECTOR OF CENTRAL INTELLIGENCE National Intelligence Council 16 January 1982 MEMORANDUM FOR: Director of Central Intelligence Deputy Director of Central Intelligence THROUGH Chairman, National Intelligence Council Acting NIO for USSR-EE SUBJECT Community Meeting on Poland 1. On 13 January I convened a 'Community meeting to discuss likely developments in Poland over the near term. Because of the weather, attendance was uneven and I shortened the meeting by concentrating on the most time-sensitive question: Should we anticipate a serious outbreak of violence in the next three months? 2. Participants in the meeting agreed unanimously that a widespread eruption of violence should not be expected within that timeframe, although the possibility could not be altogether ruled out. A major government miscalculation (such as the widespread confiscation of food from peasants or a really intolerable food supply in some city) or a spontaneous massacre by security forces could still trigger mass disorders. 3. While an eventual resurgence of labor unrest was deemed virtually inevitable, the feeling was that in the near term the regime's repressive capabilities, combined with the suppression of existing opposition and appeal for non-violence by the Church, would suffice to keep unrest localized. 4. During the meeting, I alerted the agencies that we shall be doing Distribution: 1 - DCI 2 - DDCI 3 - C/NIC 4 - . -.5 - NIO/USSR-EE File 6 - NIO/USSR-EE Chrono 7-ER Deriv Cl By Signer Revw on Jan 02 Approved For Release 2008/06/17: CIA-RDP85TO01 76RO01 000150057-8 - -~