LDCS: GROWING LABOR SURPLUSES IN THE 1980S

• Document Type: CREST
• Collection: General CIA Records
• Document Number (FOIA) /ESDN (CREST): CIA-RDP85T00283R000300030007-5
• Release Decision: RIPPUB
• Original Classification: C
• Document Page Count: 33
• Document Creation Date: December 21, 2016
• Document Release Date: January 15, 2009
• Sequence Number: 7
• Publication Date: December 1, 1983
• Content Type: REPORT

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Directorate of
Intelligence }
LDCs: Growing Labor
Surpluses in the 1980s
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Confidential
GI 83-10275
December 1983
528
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Directorate o1
Intelligence
LDCs: Growing Labor
Surpluses in the 1980s
This paper was prepared byl
the Office of Global Issues. Comments and queries
are welcome and may be directed to the Chief.
Economics Division, OGI
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Confidential
G! 83-10275
December 1983
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LDCs: Growing Labor
Surpluses in the 1980s
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Key Judgments During the next few years, the LDCs, already beset with the debt crisis,
Information available will face the challenge of finding jobs for a large increase in the number of
as of 5 December 1983 new workers. The high LDC birth rates of the 1960s and 1970s willUlead to
was used in this report.
an addition of 545 million adults to working-age populations in Third
World countries during the 1980s, an increase of 110 million more 'than
were added in the previous decade.
This surge in the work force comes at a time that economic growth and job
expansion rates are likely to be slow. Some forecasters, for example, are
projecting that real growth through the end of the decade will be only
about half as fast as that experienced during the 1970s. If estimates of
growth prospects by region are any guide, Sub-Saharan Africa will be
hardest hit because the adult population is likely to continue to grow nearly
four times as fast as production. The Central American and Caribbean
regions will be close behind. Several of the debt-troubled LDCs, where
austerity-forced slow GNP growth is expected, will also experience rapid or
accelerated growth of the working-age population.
Larger working-age populations combined with reduced real GNP'gains.
will increase the probability of political instability in developing countries:
? Faster rural-to-urban migration to escape the poverty of subsistence
farming will heighten problems of crime, disease, and squalor in the
cities.
? Emigration to developed nations, both legal and illegal, will accell rate to
cause resettlement problems and, in some cases, foster international ill
will.
? Festering tensions between ethnic and religious groups will rise as
competition for scarce jobs and housin intensifies, possibly flaring into
regime-threatening violence 25X1
US interests are likely to suffer as radical opposition groups exploit the
economic hardship; these groups will attempt.to direct blame for domestic
problems to US policies. Additionally, economic and political crises in
Central America and the Caribbean will probably mean growing pressures
on US borders by illegal aliens and will raise calls among developing
nations for increased US financial aid to combat overcrowding, unemploy-
Confidential
GI83-10275
December 1983
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.i
LDCs: Growing Labor
Surpluses in the 1980s
Accelerating Labor Force Growth and Weakening
Economic Performance
Of the 605-million increase in the world's working-
age population in the 1980s, 545 million will be added
in developing countries, 110 million more persons
than were added in the 1970s (figure 1).' According to
UN estimates; more than two-thirds of the increase
will be in Asia, with the.remainder split between
Africa and Latin America. The substantial growth of
working-age population in the developing countries is
largely the result of continued high fertility rates
combined with the rapid decline in mortality rates
that began during the 1950s and`1960s. As a result,
large juvenile populations are now entering LDC work
These trends in working-age populations during the
1980s will be occurring at a time that most forecasters
anticipate slower economic expansion. Real GNP
growth in the LDCs is projected to be well below the
pace 'of the 1970s. Many LDCs are coping with debt
problems, others suffer from the decline in oil reve-
nues; and all face probable slower growth in exports to
developed countries. Wharton Econometric Forecast-
ing Associates (WEFA), for example, projects LDC
growth output at'3.2 percent annually through 1988,
barely half the 6.2-percent yearly pace enjoyed during
the 1970s. The World Bank and the IMF agree that
LDC economic growth will remain below the levels of
the 1976-79 recovery for the next several years.
Consequently, the expansion in employment opportu-
nities will be insufficient to absorb all new labor force
participants.
Africa. Africa will be hardest pressed overall by the
.combination of very high population growth and poor
economic performance. The non-oil-producing coun-
tries in Sub-Saharan Africa, containing. about two-
thirds of Africa's population, will be the most severely
' Population estimates and projections are taken from the medium
scenario of Demographic Indicators of Countries, United Nations,
1982, and we have used UN geographic groupings of countries.
Working-age population includes all persons aged 15 to 64. Appen-
dix B presents detailed country demographic and economic trends.
affected. Kenya, Zimbabwe, Botswana, and Zambia
will experience working-age population growth rates
of 3.3 to 3.9 percent a year in the 1980s; during the
1970s they ranged from 2.4 to 3.3 percent (figure 2).
Prospects for economic expansion are slim; the World
Bank projects only slightly positive GNP growthl over
the medium term for Africa, and WEFA forecasts
1.1-percent annual growth through 1988. High rural
can nations, will get much worse.
Latin America. Parts of Latin America, especially
Central America and the Caribbean, face growing
economic pressure from extremely rapid working-age
population growth. In El Salvador, Honduras, Mexi-
i
co, Nicaragua, Suriname, and Venezuela, working-
age populations will grow by at least 3.5 percent
annually during the 1980s; they will grow nearly, as
fast in Costa Rica, the Dominican Republic, Ecuador,
Guyana, Jamaica, Panama, and Peru. In nearly 'half
of the Latin American countries the pace of working-
age population growth in the 1980s will be at least as
rapid as growth during the 1970s; only in Costa Rica
will it be significantly lower. 25X1
These extremely rapid working-age population growth ,
rates will compound existing labor surplus problems
in this region. We estimate that unemployment al-
ready equals or exceeds 25 percent of the labor forces
in El Salvador and Honduras and 20 percent in
Guatemala and Nicaragua;' unemployment levels in
the Caribbean countries average more than 25 per-
cent. Consequently, many Latin American and Carib-
bean governments have for years tacitly or openly
encouraged emigration as an avenue to relieve unem-
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Figure 1 Figure 2
Increases in Global Working-Age Population' Developing Countries:
Population Growth, 1981-90'
Millions
Africa
60
40
aGeographic divisions conform with United Nations' conventions.
Source: United Nations
eGeographic divisions conform with United Nations' conventions.
Source: United Nations
 On the basis of expectations of slow real GNP
growth-WEFA projects an annual growth rate of
only 2.6 percent in Latin America during 1983-88-
sharp increases in unemployment seem inevitable.
Along with slow job growth in industry and services in
most of Central America and the Caribbean, the
scarcity of arable land in El Salvador and Haiti and
the shortage of capital for land development in other
countries will intensify peasant migration to urban
Middle East-Asia. According to the United Nations,
the most rapidly growing working-age populations
will be in the Middle East, with rates for Persian Gulf
countries ranging from 3.0 to 4.6 percent annually.
These projections, however, incorporate UN assump-
tions that significant immigration continues. To date,
these countries have welcomed the rapid immigration
and working-age population increases to facilitate
ambitious development programs. Thus, by restricting
the inflow of workers they can mitigate any surplus
labor problems that might occur if development slows.
To the extent that restrictions are imposed, however,
the burden will be shifted to the labor-exporting
countries-including Egypt, Syria, Pakistan, and Jor-
Domestic labor-force growth will also be high in
several Asian countries. India has slowed overall
population expansion to an average rate of less than 2
percent through concerted efforts in family planning,
but the adult population will continue to swell by
about 2.5 percent, 11 million persons a year, during
this decade. In Pakistan and Bangladesh adult popu-
lation growth will average 3 percent or more each
year, as it will in Thailand, Malaysia, and the Philip-
pines. Economic growth-forecast at 4 to 7 percent
annually for the whole of Asia and the Middle East-
will ease the consequences of rapid adult population
Strains From Increased Labor Surplus
Labor surpluses in developing countries will leave
governments hard pressed for solutions to such prob-
lems as rapid urbanization. An example of steps that
may be forced on Third World governments is the
recent forcible evacuation to rural areas of 50,000
people from Maputo and other major cities in Mo-
zambique. Rural underemployment, however, will
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continue to drive urban migration in all developing
countries. High urban unemployment is unlikely to
alter this trend significantly because, in our judgment 25X1
th
i
t
ill
ti
t
i
h
h
i
e m
gran
s w
con
nue
o perce
ve t
at t
e
r
chances of improving their living standards are better
In part because of relatively greater economicloppor-
tunities in cities, 37 percent of the population in 25X1
developing countries will be in urban centers gy 1990
as.compared with 26 percent in 1970, according to
UN projections. Infrastructure-transport, electric-
ity, sanitation, and water supply-is likely to be
strained to the breaking point in the fastest growing,
cities such as Mexico City, Karachi, and Jakarta
despite disproportionately high public investment in
urban areas. Increasing numbers of poor and illiterate
rural migrants in slums could, in some countries,
provide fertile ground for opposition to national re-
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Rapid urbanization and overcrowding likely will
heighten tensions between various ethnic and facial
groups competing for scarce jobs, food, and housing.
People with different languages, religions, and ethnic
heritage often are barely tolerant of one anotFier even
Vietnamese. 25X1
? Indonesians and Malays dislike Chinese and
Indians.
? Ethnic and tribal tensions are a major source of
Sudanese unrest.
I
? Burmese are hostile to Indians as are many East
Africans, especially in Uganda.
? Rivalry and conflict mark relations between the
Minangkbau of Sumatra and the Javanese.
These conflicts often spill over into the political arena
and may, at times, escalate to regime-threatening 25X1
International migrant flows are likely to become a
more politically sensitive issue during the next several
years. Problems between receiving and originating
countries will include workers' rights, remittance
flows, and displaced employment of host countries'
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 LDC debtor countries will be caught in a vice between
the ill effects of continued swelling of the labor force
and the need to continue austerity measures. Many of
these countries are already showing economic and
social strains, and the problem of finding jobs will
grow progressively more difficult as ever greater
numbers of young people enter the labor market (see
appendix A table and figure 3):
? More than two-thirds of Mexico's 76 million people
live in metropolitan areas, and nearly one-third of
all urban dwellers live in Mexico City. Unemploy-
ment and crime are becoming a way of life for many
city dwellers. Restrictive policies designed to stabi-
lize the economy will keep economic expansion well
below the norm of the 1970s, aggravating the
impact of continued rapid adult population growth
on surplus labor.
? Joblessness and underemployment already are seri-
ous problems for Nigeria's nearly 45 million adults.
Four fifths of the populace depend on seasonal
agricultural work, and only 20 to 30 percent of
Nigeria's new secondary school graduates report
finding jobs. Nonetheless, Ghanaian migrants are
starting to pour back in because conditions are
worse in their own country. These problems will
worsen over the course of this decade.
? Almost one-third of Pakistan's nearly 95 million
people live in overcrowded cities. Pakistan faces
problems of ethnic, cultural, and linguistic differ-
ences between Pushtuns, Sindhis, Baluchis, and
Punjabis, as well as about .3 million Afghan refu-
gees. Unemployment and underemployment have
made Pakistan a major source of temporary work-
ers throughout the region, but weakening economic
conditions in Gulf countries may shut this safety
valve.
? Underemployment probably will be the worst eco-
nomic problem facing Indonesia's estimated 155
million inhabitants in this decade. Nearly 2.3 mil-
lion juveniles will reach adulthood each year dur-
ing the remainder of the 1980s, and school leavers
face poor job prospects. Adjusted unemployment,
according to World Bank estimates, already ex-
ceeds 40 percent of the labor force and probably
will worsen.
? Even though Brazil's working-age population
growth will slow in this decade, we believe Brasilia
will have to face major labor market problems.
Already the world recession has slashed jobs and
pushed unemployment to record highs (see appen-
dix A).
indigenous workers. Illegal migration, already on the
rise, will be of particular concern as countries act to
control unchecked movements of workers. India, for
example, has announced its intention to fence the
2,300-kilometer border with Bangladesh to control
illegal immigration and to prevent a repeat of the
violence that occurred in Assam earlier this year when
Bangladeshis crossed the border into the Brahmapu-
The ill effects of high unemployment and underem-
ployment will be compounded by the need to support
large numbers of dependents. In Africa, the depend-
ency ratio-numbers of children under 15 and elderly
(over 64) per each working-age person-is above 90
percent and still rising, compared to 50 percent in the
developed countries. Asia and Latin America, further
along in the demographic transition to lower birth
rates, have dependency ratios near 75 percent. High
levels of adult unemployment will impact on these
dependent groups by worsening housing and nutrition
levels and reducing education opportunities for young-
sters. Economic growth and productivity prospects
could, in turn, be lowered in the decades to come.-
The increase. in the working-age population and the
slower economic growth trends we expect in the 1980s
may not cause refugee problems, but they will com-
pound them. Refugees, like migrants, seek work and
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 often dominate local labor markets for low-wage, low-,
skill employment. Additional strain is imposed on
already burdened social services, and friction and
resentment between refugees and native citizens are
inevitable despite official welcomes and widespread
attempts to locate refugees in camps away from
population centers. Moreover, to the extent that rapid
adult population growth strains economic conditions
in poorer countries, it may even create certain refugee
Refugees are already. a pressing concern. At least 11
million people are now seeking refuge outside their
homelands and nearly 8 million require protection and
assistance from the international community. The
struggle in Ethiopia, for example, has sent more than
400,000 Ethiopians and Eritreans?to Sudan and an
equal number of ethnic Somalis to Somalia. Some
3.5-4.5 million Afghans have fled to Pakistan and
Iran. More than 200,000 displaced Khmer nationals
are camped along the Thai border. And more than
180,000 Latin America/Caribbean refugees are re-
ceiving assistance in foreign countriesF_
Implications for the United States
Growth in the Third World labor force during the
1980s could have several adverse consequences for US
interests:
As the Mexican and Central American economies
face increased difficulties in providing employment
opportunities, many workers will view migration to
the United States as the best alternative. We esti-
mate that three-fourths of known US illegal immi-
grants come from Mexico, El Salvador, Guatemala,
and Honduras.
? In many LDCs tensions over stagnant or declining
real incomes could be exploited by radical opposi-
tion groups that could blame the United States for
economic problems and oppose US interests.
? The present international financial crisis could be
prolonged by mounting domestic pressure in debt-
ridden LDCs to provide jobs and increase welfare
expenditures rather than stick to tough austerity
programs.
Problems of political refugees throughout the wbrld,
while not directly affected by rapid population
growth, may worsen if economic or political condi- 25X1
tions deteriorate. The United States may be asked
to shoulder a larger share of the financial burden for
UN refugee programs and may also be asked to
provide more direct assistance, including asylum,
for refugees. 125X1
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Figure 3
Selected Countries:
Age Distribution of Population, 1980
Million persons
United States
12 6 0 6
8o+
75-79
70-74
65-69
60-64
55-59
50-54
45-49
40-44
35-39
30-34
25-29
20-24
15-19
10-14
5-9
0-4
Indonesia
12 6 0 6 12
80+
75-79
70-74
65-69
60-64
55-59
50-54
45-49
40-44
35-39
30-34
25-29
20-24
15-19
10-14
5-9
0-4
Nigeria
12 6 0 6 12
80+
75-79
70-74
65-69
60-64
55-59
50-54
45-49
40-44
35-39
30-34
25-29
20-24
15-19
10-14
5-9
0-4
80+
75-79
70-74
65-69
60-64
55-59
50-54
45-49
40-44
35-39
30-34
25-29
20-24
15-19
10-14
5-9
.0-4
80+
75-79
70-74
65-69
60-64
55-59
50-54
45-49
40-44
35-39
30-34
25-29
20-24
15-19
10-14
5-9
0-4
80+
75-79
70-74
65-69
60=64
55-59
50-54
45-49
40-44
35-39
30-34
25-29
20-24
15-19
10-14
5-9
0-4
Brazil
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I .
Brazil: A Closer Look at
Labor Surpluses
Given historical relationships between real GNP
growth and employment and the dramatic slowdown
in growth expected in this decade, the labor surplus
outlook for Brazil-the most populous country in
Latin America-is at best dismal. Even in the 1970s,
when Brazil's real GNP grew at an 8.8-percent
average rate, employment growth barely held even
with adult population growthF I
The situation turned worse in 1982-83. On the basis
of estimates derived from data on manufacturing
employment in the Sao Paulo area and a World Bank
study, it seems likely that Brazilian employment fell
sharply last year and, at best, will hold its own this
year. Since 1981 more than 2 million jobs have
disappeared while the number of working-age adults
seeking jobs has risen by nearly 4 million persons.
As Brazil's economic trauma ends, the rapid deterio-
ration in the labor situation will bottom out. Unless
growth rebounds far above most expectations, how-
ever, no improvement will occur for the rest of the
25X1
decade, and in all probability there will be some
continued deterioration' 25X1
P
ercent
1982
1983 1984-90 b
Change in working-age population
3.1
2.7
2.7'
2.7' 2.71
Change in employment
4.0
3.8
-5.Od
0.Od 1.6
Change in Real GNP
8.8
0.0
-5.Od 3.5j
Average annual rate.
b Projected, average annual rate.
Projected.
d Estimated.
e Based on an assumption that the relationship between employ-
ment and real GNP growth remains as it was in 1971-80.
t Based on DRI, WEFA, and Chase Econometric projections.
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I I
 f
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Change in population, ages 15-64 f 1.8 2.2 2.4
Argentim
Appen
x
Detailed Country Statistics a
1960
1970
1980
1990b
Afghanistan
.I
Population, total= 8,920
12,342
15,940
20,618 I
Population, ages 15-64 = 5,339
6,622
8,385
10,907 I
Dependency ratio d 0.671
0.864
0.901
0.890
I
Urbanization ratio ? 0.088
0.110
0.154
0.211
2.7 I
Change in real GNP/GDP r 2.0
2.9
2.4
NA
Algeria
Population, total 10,800
13,746
18,919
26,946
Population, ages 15-64 c 5,658
6,531
9,292
13,422
Dependency ratio d 0.909
1.105
1.036
1,008
Urbanization ratioc 0.304
0.456
0.608
0.711
Change in population, ages 15-64 r 1.5
1.4
3.6
3.7
Change in real GNP/GDP r 8.5
3.5
7.6
NA
Angola
Population, total= 4,816
5,588
7,078
9,285
Population, ages 15-64= 2,670
3,033
3,757
4,817
Dependency ratio d 0.804
0.842
0.884
0.928
Urbanization ratioc 0.104
0.150
0.210
0.283 I
Change in population, ages 15-64 f 1.5
1.3
2.2
2.5
Change in real GNP/GDP r 3.3
3.9
-0.2
NA I
I
,
Population, total= 20,611
23,748
27,036
30,277
I
Population, ages 15-64 = 13,125
15,127
17,133
19,091
Dependency ratio d 0.570
0.570
0.578
0.586
Urbanization ratioc 0.736
0.784
0.824
0.855 ' I
.
Change in population, ages 15-64 r 1.6
1.4
1.3
1.1
Change in real GNP/GDP r 3.6
4.4
2.5
NA
Bahamas
Population, total = 156
220
313
410
Population, ages 15-64 = 85
113
179
242
Dependency ratio d 0.835
0.947
0.749
0.694
Urbanization ratio ? 0.788
0.782
0.780
0.795
[
Change in population, ages 15-64 r 3.0
2.9
4.7
3.1
Change in real GNP/GDP r 5.6
5.5
0.3
NA
a From Demographic Indicator o(Counlries, United Nations,
1982, and The Planetary Product in 1980: A Creative Pause?,
Herb Block, 1982.
s Projected.
= Thousands of persons.
d Population under 15 and over 64 relative to population
IS to 64.
c Urban population relative to total population.
f Average annual percent change for preceding decade.
9
Confidential
di
B
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Population, total c
51,446
68,278
88,164
116,164
Population, ages 15-64 c -
27,021
34,882
45,535
61,585
Dependency ratio d
0.904
0.957
0.936
0.886
Urbanization ratio a
0.051
0.076
0.112
0.161
Change in population, ages 15-64 r
1.8
2.6
2.7
3:1
Change in real GNP/GDP t
2.9
4.1
2.9
NA
Bahrain
Population, total c
857
1,045
1,296
1,628
Population, ages 15-64 c
480
576
714
903
Dependency ratio d
0.785
0.814
0.815
0.803
Urbanization ratio
0.025
0.031
0.039
0.053
Change in population, ages 15-64 r
1.2
1.8
2.2
2.4
Change in real GNP/GDP r
7.1
6.9
4.4
NA
Barbados
Population, total
231
239
263
292
Population, ages 15-64 =
127
130
163
189
Dependency ratio d
0.819
0.838
0.613
0.545
Urbanization ratio
0.355
0.372
0.392
0.442
Change in population, ages 15-64 r
-0.2
0.2
2.3
1.5
Change in real GNP/GDP r
3.4
6.1
1:7
NA
Benin
Population, total c
2,050
2,646
3,530
4,861
Population, ages 15-64 c
1,094
1,377
1,803
2,426
Dependency ratio d
0.874
0.922
0.958
1.004
Urbanization ratio
0.095
0.160
0.308
0.453
Change in population, ages 15-64 r
2.0
2.3
2.7
3.0
Change in real GNP/GDP r
2.7
0.7
5.0
NA
Bolivia
Population, ages 15-64 c
1,850
2,323
2,967
3,868
Dependency ratio d
0.853
0.862
0.877
0.891
Urbanization ratio
0.240
0.281
0.329
0.394
Change in population, ages 15-64 r
2.0
2.3
2.5
2.7
Change in real GNP/GDP r
0.3
5.1
4.3
NA
? From Demographic Indicator of Countries, United Nations, 1982,
and The Planetary Product in 1980: A Creative Pause?. Herb
Block, 1982.
b Projected.
c Thousands of persons.
d Population under 15 and over 64 relative to populations 15 to 64.
= Urban population relative to total population.
r Average annual percent change for preceding decade. -
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1960
1970
1980
1990 b
Botswana
Population, total c
507
622
- 807
1,123
Population, ages 15-64 c
260
304
384
535
Dependency ratio d
0.950
1.046
1.102
1.099
Urbanization ratioe
0.018
0.084
0.295
0.528 1.
Change in population, ages 15-64 r
1.2
1.6
2.4
3.4
Change in real GNP/GDP r
2.8
10.3
10.2
NA
Brazil
Population, total c
71,513
95,322
122,320
153,171
Population, ages 15-64 c
38,364
51,319
69,448
90,713
Dependency ratio d
0.864
0.857
0.761
0.689
Urbanization ratio,
0.449
0.558
0.670
0.747 1
Change in population, ages 15-64 r
2.8
3.0
3.1
2.7
Change in real GNP/GDP r
6.8
6.1
8.8
NA
Burma
Population, total'
22,254
27,748
35,289
44,738
Population, ages 15-64c
13,166
15,628
19,418
24,998
Dependency ratio d
0.690
0.776
0.817
0.790 ,
Urbanization ratio c
0.193
0.228
0.272
0.332
Change in population, ages 15-64 r
1.9
1.7
2.2
2.6
Change in real GNP/GDP r
6.3
2.9
4.7
NA
Burundi
Population, total c
2,913
3,485
4,241
5,516
Population, ages 15-64
1,608
1,882
2,324
2,899
Dependency ratio d
0.812
0.852
0.825
0.903
Urbanization ratio a
0.022
.0.022
0.023
0.028
Change in population, ages 15-64 r
1.6
1.6
2.1
2.2
Change in real GNP/GDP r
-1.5
3.2
3.4
NA
Cameroon
Population, total c
5,681
6,781
8,444
10,838
Population, ages 15-64,
3,240
3,761
4,590
5,775
Dependency ratio d
0.753
0.803
0.840
0.877
Urbanization ratioe
0.135
0.203
0.346
0.478
Change in population, ages 15-64 r
1.1
1.5
2.0
2.3
Change in real GNP/GDP r
0.7
5.0
4.4
NA
11
Confidential
 1960
1970
1980
1990b
Population, total a
1,538
1,857
2,294
2,965
Population, ages 15-64
905
1,042
1,243
1,574
Dependency ratio d
0.699
0.782
0.846
0.884
Urbanization ratio=
0.227
0.311
0.408
0.502
Change in population, ages 15-64 r
1.2
1.4
1.8
2.4
Change in real GNP/GDP r
0.8
2.6
2.4
NA
Chad
Population, total c
3,032
3,643
4,455
5,558
Population, ages 15-64 =
1,720
2,007
2,434
3,007
Dependency ratiod
0.763
0.815
0.830
0.848
Urbanization ratio'
0.070
0.114
0.178
0.256
Change in population, ages 15-64 r
1.2
1.6
1.9
2.1
Change in real GNP/GDP r
1.7
0.4
-1.5
NA
Chile
Population, total a
7,686
9,368.
11,104
13,061
Population, ages 15-64 =
4,288
5,354
6,884
8,291
Dependency ratiod
0.792
0.750
0.613
0.575
Urbanization ratio.
0.669
0.752
0.811
0.851
Change in population, ages 15-64 r
2.0
2.2
2.5
1.9
Change in real GNP/GDP r
3.8
4.5
2.6
NA
Colombia
Population, total'
15,538
20,803
25,794
31,820
Population, ages 15-64 ?
7,866
10,748
14,719
19,030
Dependency ratio d
0.975
0.936
0.752.
0.672
Urbanization ratio a
0.482
0.598
0.702
0.771
Change in population, ages 15-64 r
2.5
3.2
3.2
2.6
Change in real GNP/GDP r
4.6
5.2
6.3
NA
Congo
Population, total a
969
1,198
1,537
2,030
Population, ages 15-64a
541
654
819
1,060
Dependency ratiod
0.791
0.832
0.877
0.915
Urbanization ratio
0.330
0.348
0.373
0.423
Change in population, ages 15-64 r
1.7
1.9
2.3
2.6'
Change in real GNP/GDP r
1.3
5.0
2.6
NA
a From Demographic Indicator of Countries, United Nations, 1982,
and The Planetary Product in 1980: A Creative Pause?, Herb
Block, 1982.
b Projected.
Thousands of persons.
Population under 15 and over 64 relative to population 15 to 64.
Urban population relative to total population.
r Average annual percent change for preceding decade.
 II
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I
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1960
1970
1980
1990 b
Costa Rica
Population, total c
1,236
1,732
2,213
2,776
I
Population, ages 15-64=
612
878
1,295
1,712
Dependency ratio d
1.020
0.973
0.709
0.621 {
Urbanization ratio
0.366
0.397
0.434
0.489
Change in population, ages 15-64 r
3.0
3.7
4.0
2.8
Change in real GNP/GDP r
7.4
4.7
5.6
NA
Dominican Republic
Population, total =
3,258
4,523
5,947
7,534
Population, ages 15-64 c
1,606
2,185
3,116
4,367
Dependency ratio d
1.029
1.070
0.909
0.725
Urbanization ratio
0.302
0.403
0.510
0.600.
Change in population, ages 15-64 r
2.7
3.1
3.6
3.4
Change in real GNP/GDP r
5.6
5.2
7.1
NA
Ecuador
Population, total =
4,422
5,958
8,021
10,949
Population, ages 15-64c
2,299
3,029
4,173
5,770
Dependency ratio d
0.923
0.967
0.922
0.898
Urbanization ratio ?
0.344
0.395
0.446
0.510
Change in population, ages 15-64 r
2.4
2.8
3.3
3.3
Change in real GNP/GDP r
3.8
5.6
8.9
NA
Egypt
Population, total=
25,929
32,820
41,963
52,709
Population, ages 15-64 =
14,194
18,034
23,807
30,661.
Dependency ratio d
0.827
0.820
0.763
0.719 I
Urbanization ratioe
0.379
0.422
0.454
- 0.505
Change in population, ages 15-64 r
2.4
2.4
2.8
2.6
Change in real GNP/GDP r
3.0
6.1
4.5
NA 1
El Salvador
Population, total =
2,574
3,582
4,797
6,484
Population, ages 15-64=
987
1,412
1,971
2,954
Dependency ratio d
1.608
1.537
1.434
1.195
Urbanization ratio t
0.383
0.394
0.411
0.456
Change in population, ages 15-64 r
3.4
3.6
3.4
4.1
Change in real GNP/GDP r
3.9
5.7
2.7
NA
13
Confidential
 Approved For Release 2009/01/15 : CIA-RDP85T00283R000300030007-5
t.uvuucuunr
Appendix B
Detailed Country Statistics a (continued)
Population, total =
20,093
25,450
31,468
41,259
Population, ages 15-64'
10,744
13,391
16,471
21,563,
Dependency ratios
0.870
0.901
0.911
0.913
Urbanization ratio'
0.064
0.093
0.145
0.210
Change in population, ages 15-64 r
2.0
2.2
2.1
2.7
Change in real GNP/GDP r
6.6
4.4
2.5
NA
Gabon
Population, total '
472 -
500
548
640
Population, ages 15-64
290
308
335
372
Dependency ratio d
0.628
0.623
0.636
0.720
Urbanization ratio'
0.174
0.256
0.358
0.456
Change in population, ages 15-64 r
0.3
0.6
0.8
1.1
Change in real GNP/GDP t
0.1
7.6
13.4
NA
Gambia, The
Population, total '
327
449
603
788!
Population, ages 15-64
177
238
318
411
Dependency ratio d
0.847
0.887
0.896
0.917 j
Urbanization ratio'
0.125
0.149
0.186
0.237
Change in population, ages 15-64 !
1.8
3.0
2.9
2.6!
Change in real GNP/GDP r
3.2
5.3
4.4
NA
Ghana
Population, total '
6,804
8,614
11,679
16,2141
Population, ages 15-64
3,597
4,443
5,916
8,096
Dependency ratio d
0.892
0.939
0.974
1.003:
Urbanization ratio'
0.233
0.291
0.359
0.435
Change in population, ages 15-64 r
4.4
2.1
2.9
3.2
Change in real GNP/GDP r
7.6
2.6
0.1
NA
Guatemala
!
Population, total'
3,966
5,353
7,262
9,676,
Population, ages 15-64 '
2,026
2,760
3,854
5,325 ;
Dependency ratio d
0.958
0.939
0.884
0.817
Urbanization ratio'
0.330
0.357
0.389
0.443,
Change in population, ages 15-64 r
2.6
3.1
3.4
3.3
Change in real GNP/GDP r -
3.8
5.5
6.2
NA
a From Demographic Indicator of Countries, United Nations, 1982,
and The Planetary Product in 1980: A Creative Pause?, Herb
Block, 1982.
b Projected. -
' Thousands of persons.
d Population under 15 and over 64 relative to population 15 to 64.
Urban population relative to total population.
r Average annual percent change for preceding decade.
 Approved For Release 2009/01/15 : CIA-RDP85T00283R000300030007-5
Appendix B (continued)
1960
1970
1980
1990 n
Guinea
Population, total C
3,213
3,921
5,017
6,609
Population, ages 15-64
1,746
2,143
2,670
3,451 I
Dependency ratio d
0.840
0.830
0.879
0.915
I
Urbanization ratio'
0.099
0.138
0.191
0.256
I
Change in population, ages 15-64 r
1.6
2.1
2.2
2.6
Change in real GNP/GDP r
3.4
3.3
0.2
NA I
'
Guyana
Population, total
538
709
883
1,069 I
Population, ages 15-64'
260
347
494
656
I
Dependency ratio d
1.069
1.043
0.787
0.630
Urbanization ratio'
0.264
0.234
0.219
0.238
Change in population, ages 15-64 f
2.4
2.9
3.6
2.9
Change in real GNP/GDP r
3.9
3.6
2.0
NA
Haiti
Population, total C
3,723
4,605
5,809
7,509
Population, ages 15-64 '
2,053
2,456
3,072
3,986
Dependency ratio d
0.813
0.875
0.891
0.884
Urbanization ratio'
0.156
0.198
0.249
0.315
Change in population, ages 15-64 r
1.6
1.8
2.3
2.6
Change in real GNP/GDP r
1.6
0.8
4.0
NA ,
Honduras
Population, total'
1,942
2,640
3,691
5,105
Population, ages 15-64C
1,015
1,322
1,825
2,642
Dependency ratio d
0.913
0.997
1.022
0.932
Urbanization ratio'
0.228
0.289
0.360
0.439
I
Change in population, ages 15-64 r
3.1
2.7
3.3
3.8
Change in real GNP/GDP r
3.1
4.7
4.2
NA
Hong Kong
Population, total'
3,075
3,942
5,106
6,250
Population, ages 15-64 '
1,731
2,326
3,482
4,170
Dependency ratio d
0.776
0.695
0.466
0.499
Urbanization ratio'
0.891
0.896
0.903
0.914
I
Change in population, ages 15-64 r
2.7
3.0
4.1
1.8
Change in real GNP/GDP r
9.2
10.0
7.9
NA I
15
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 Population, total c
439,441
552,469
684,460
820,860
Population, ages 15-64 C
239,423
299,803
389,378
499,559
Dependency ratio d
0.835
0.843
0.758
0.643
Urbanization ratio
0.180
0.198
0.222
0.268
Change in population, ages 15-64 r
1.7
2.3
2.6
2.5
Change in real GNP/GDP r
3.7
3.8
2.8
NA
Indonesia
Population, total C
97,711
122,211
148,033
173,530
Population, ages 15-64 C
55,837
66,453
85,242
107,788
Dependency ratiod
0.750
0.839
0.737
0.610
Urbanization ratio
0.146
0.171
0.202
0.252
Change in population, ages 15-64 r
1.7
1.8
2.5
2.4
Change in real GNP/GDP r
3.7
10.6
12.9
NA
Iran
Population, total C
21,554
28,359
38,126
51,033
Population, ages 15-64 C
10,997
14,442
19,646
27,097
Dependency ratiod
0.960
0.964 -
0.941
0.883
Urbanization ratio C
0.336
0.409
0.499
0.581
Change in population, ages 15-64 r
1.6
2.8
3.1
3.3,
Change in real GNP/GDP r
6.1
5.6
6.1
NA
Iraq
Population, total C
6,847
9,356
13,072
18,136:
Population, ages 15-64C
3,521
4,767
6,657
9,459,
Dependency ratiod
0.945
0.963
0.964
0.917
Urbanization ratio=
0.429
0.584
0.716
0.795
Change in population, ages 15-64 r
2.8
3.1
3.4
3.6
Change in real GNP/GDP r
6.5
5.4
13.9
NA
Ivory Coast
3,300
5,341
8,034
10,964.
1,770
2,934
4,291
5,743
Dependency ratio d
0.864
0.820
0.872
0.909;
Urbanization ratio
0.193
0.277
0.376
0.473
Change in population, ages 15-64 r
2.0
5.2
3.9
3.0,
Change in real GNP/GDP r
3.7
7.2
6.2
NA'
a From Demographic Indicator ofCountries, United Nations, 1982,
and The Planetary Product in 1980: A Creative Pause?, Herb
Block, 1982.
s Projected.
C Thousands of persons.
d Population under I S and over 64 relative to population 15 to 64.
Urban population relative to total population.
r Average annual percent change for preceding decade.
 Approved For Release 2009/01/15 : CIA-RDP85T00283R000300030007-5 Confidential
For Release 2009/01/15 CIA-RDP85T00283R000300030007-5
Approved
1960
1970
1980
1990^
Jamaica
Population, total =
1,629
1,869
2,188
2,535
Population, ages 15-64
880
887
1,168
1,536
Dependency ratio d
0.851
1.107
0.873
0.650
Urbanization ratio'
0.337
0.372
' 0.413
0.471
Change in population, ages 15-64 r
0.4
0.1
2.8
2.8
Change in real GNP/GDP r
7.9
5.0
-1.3
NA
Jordan
Population, total c
1,695
2,299
3,244
4,657
Population, ages 15-64'
873
1,173
1,615
2,357
Dependency ratio d
0,942
0.960
1.009
0.976
Urbanization ratio
0.427
0.496
0.563
0.628
Change in population, ages 15-64 r
3.6
3.0
3.2
3.9
Change in real GNP/GDP r
10.3
6.5
8.0
NA
Kenya
Population, total'
8,189
11,253
16,466
24,831
Population, ages 15-64 c
4,265
5,520
7,644
11,253
Dependency
ratio d
0.920
1.039
1.154
1.207
Urbanization ratio
'
0.074
0.102
0.142
0.195
Change in population, ages 15-64 r
2.0
2.6
3.3
3.9
GNP/GDP r
Change in real
3.5
5.5
3.6
NA
Kuwait
Population, total
278
744
1,353
2,101
Population, ages 15-64
175
408
704
1,100
Dependency ratio d
0.589
0.824
0.922
0.910
Urbanization ratio'
0.723
0.765
0.883
0.930
Change in population, ages 15-64 r
6.5
8.8
5.6
4.6
Change in real GNP/GDP r
13.1
3.1
10.2
NA
Lebanon
Population, total'
1,857
2,469
2,658
3,301
Population, ages 15-64
992
1,264
1,468
1,991
Dependency ratio d
0.872
0.953
0.811
0.658
Urbanization ratio'
0.444
0.618
0.758
0.833
Change in population, ages 15-64 r
1.6
2.5
1.5
3.1-
Change in real GNP/GDP r
3.3
4.9
-2.5
NA
17
Confidential
 Detailed Country Statistics a (continued)
Population, total =
869
1,061
1,341
1,726
Population, ages 15-64 C
495
591
734
930
Dependency ratio d
0.756
0.795
0.827
0.856
Urbanization ratio.
0.015
0.026
.0.045
0.072
Change in population, ages 15-64 r
1.4
1.8
2.2
2.4
Change in real GNP/GDP f
4.3
6.1
4.8
NA
Liberia .
Population, total '
1,004
1,393
1,976
2,821
Population, ages 15-64 '
514
701
974
1,380
Dependency ratio d
0.953
0.987
1.029
1.044
Urbanization ratio=
0.205
0.262
0.328
0.407
Change in population, ages 15-64 f
2.7
3.2
3.3
3.5
Change in real GNP/GDP f
Libya
Population; total=
1,349
1,982
2,978
4,337
Population, ages 15-64 =
711
1,037
1,521
2,241
Dependency ratiod
0.897 -
0.911
0.958 .
0.934
Urbanization ratio a
0.228
0.343
0.524
0.653
Change in population, ages 15-64 f
2.6
3.8
3.9
4.0
Change in real GNP/GDP r
3.1
29.3
11.2
NA
Madagascar
Dependency ratio d
0.811
0.854
0.883
0.916
Urbanization ratio=
0.106
0.141
0.184
0.242
Change in population, ages 15-64 r
1.6
2.0
2.4
2.6
Change in real GNP/GDP f
1.1
3.3
0.4
Ne
Malaysia
Population, total=
8,170
10,863
14,068
17,689
Population, ages 15-64'
4,160
5,610
7,900
10,566
Dependency ratio d
0.964
0.936
0.781
0.674
Change in population, ages 15-64 f
2.1
3.0
3.5
3.0
Change in real GNP/GDP f .
3.9
6.1
7.3
NA
a From Demographic Indicator of Countries, United Nations, 1982,
and The Planetary Product in 1980: A Creative Pause?, Herb
Block, 1982.
b Projected.
Thousands of persons.
d Population under I S and over 64 relative to population I S to 64.
? Urban population relative to total population.
r Average annual percent change for preceding decade.
Approved For Release 2009/01/15 : CIA-RDP85T00283R000300030007-5
 Approved For Release 2009/01/15 : CIA-RDP85T00283R000300030007-5
I
Approved For Release 2009/01/15 : CIA-RDP85T00283R000300030007-5
Appendix S (continued)
1960
1970
1980
1990^
Mali
Population, total c
4,224
5,362
6,940
9,290
Population, ages 15-64c
2,268
2,820
3,602
4,723
I
Dependency ratio d
0.862
0.901
0.927
0.967
I
Urbanization ratio
0.111
0.149
0.199
0.262
Change in population, ages 15-64 r
2.1
2.2
2.5
2.7 I
Change in real GNP/GDP r
6.2
4.3
5.0
NA
Mauritania
I
Population, total c
970
1,245
1,634
2,207
Population, ages 15-64 c
517
647
838
1,109
Dependency ratio d
0.876
0.924
0.950
0.990
Urbanization ratio
0.034
0.128
0.356
0.570
Change in population, ages 15-64 r
2.0
2.3
2.6
2.8
Change in real GNP/GDP r
3.5
7.3
3.1
NA
Mexico
Population, total =
36,881
51,187
69,752
91,976
, ages 15-64 =
Population,
18,696
25,595
36,170
51,161
I
Dependency ratio d
0.973
1.000
0.928
0.798
ratio
0.507
0.590
0.667
0.728
Change in population, ages 15-64 r
2.6
3.2
3.5
3.5 I
Change in real GNP/GDP r
5.4
6.9
5.6
NA I
Morocco
Population, total c
11,640
15,126
20,296
27,840
Population, ages 15-64=
6,121
7,298
10,340
14,640
Dependency ratio d
0.902
1.073
0.963
0.902
I
Urbanization ratio=
0.293
0.346
0.405
0.475
I
Change in population, ages 15-64 r
2.6
1.8
3.5
3.5
Change in real GNP/GDP r
2.1
3.9
4.3
NA
Mozambique
I
Population, total C
6,546
8,140
10,473
13,895
Population, ages 15-64=
3,677
4,426
5,543
7,219
Dependency ratio d
0.780
0.839
0.889
0.925
Urbanization ratio
0.037
0.057
0.087
0.128 '
I
Change in population, ages 15-64 r
1.4
1.9
2.3
2.7
Change in real GNP/GDP r
7.9
4.7
-1.2
NA
19
Confidential
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Appendix B
Detailed Country Statistics a (continued)
Change in real GNP/GDP r
Nicaragua
Population, total =
1,472
1,970
2,733
3,778
Population, ages 15-64 =
731
966
1,354
1,927
Dependency ratio d
1.014
1.039
1.018
0.961
Urbanization ratio a
0.414
0.472
0.533
0.597
Change in population, ages 15-64 r
2.2
2.8
3.4
3.6
Change in real GNP/GDP r
5.6
6.5
2.6
NA
Population, total=
2,876
4,008
5,318
7,278
Population, ages 15-64=
1,515 -
2,047
2,702
3,609
Dependency ratio d
0.898
0.958
0.968
1.017
Urbanization ratio
0.058
0.084
0.125 -
0.180
Change in population, ages 15-64 r
2.0
3.1.
2.8
2.9
Change in real GNP/GDP t
3.6
4.3
3.4
NA
Nigeria
I
Population, total=-
42,366
56,346
77,082
107,954
Urbanization ratio =
0.131
0.164
0.204
0.261
Change in population, ages 15-64 t
2.5
2.6
3.0
3.3
Change in real GNP/GDP t
7.1
4.0 .
11.0
NA
Population, total=
49,371
65,706
86,899
113,376
Population, ages 15-64
25,593
33,211
45,299
61,865
Dependency ratio d
0.929
0.978
0.918
. 0.833
Urbanization ratio C
0.221
0.249
0.282
0.335
Change in population, ages 15-64 t -
1.7
2.6
3.2
3.2
Change in real GNP/GDP r - -
3.1
6.7
4.5
NA
a From Demographic Indicator of Countries, United Nations, 1982,
and The Planetary Product in 1980: A Creative Pause?, Herb
Block, 1982.
s Projected.
= Thousands of persons.
d Population under 15 and over 64 relative to population 15 to 64.
a Urban population relative to total population.
r Average annual percent change for preceding decade.
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Appendix B (continued)
Confidential
1960
1970
1980
1990 a
Panama
Population, total
1,095
1,464
1,896
2,346
Population, ages 15-64 C
568
775
1,062
1,418
Dependency ratio
0.928
0.889
0.785
0.654
Urbanization ratios
0.413
0.477
0.543
0.610
Change in population, ages 15-64 r
2.7
3.2
3.2
2.9
Change in real GNP/GDP r
5.1
8.0
4.9
NA
Peru
Population, total<
10,181
13,461
17,625
23,355
I
Population, ages 15-64 c
5,372
7,012
9,580
12,937
Dependency ratio d
0.895
0.920
0.840
0.805
Urbanization ratio
0.463
0.574
0.674
0.745
Change in population, ages 15-64 r
2.1
2.7
3.2
3.0
Change in real GNP/GDP r
5.1
5.6
3.6
NA
Philippines
Population, total C
28,098
37,540 -
49,211
62,830
Population, ages 15-64 c
13,906
19,463
27,219
36,651
Dependency ratio d
1.021
0.929
0.808
0.714
Urbanization ratio C
0.303
0.329
0.362
0.416
Change in population, ages 15-64 r
2.4
3.4
3.4
3.0
Change in real GNP/GDP r
6.6
5.1
6.4
NA
Qatar
Population, total c
45
111
237
330
Population, ages 15-64 C
26
69
157
210
Dependency ratio d
0.731
0.609
0.510
0.571
Urbanization ratio=
0.733
0.802
0.861
0.897
Change in population, ages 15-64 r
6.4
10.3
8.6
3.0
Change in real GNP/GDP r
8.0
9.6
10.9
NA
Rwanda
Population, total C
2,762
3,573
4,797
6,660
Population, ages 15-64 c
1,464
1,843
2,428
3,292
Dependency ratio d
0.887
0.939
0.976
1.023
Urbanization ratio
0.024
0.032
0.043
0.060
Change in population, ages 15-64 r
1.9
2.3
2.8
3.1
Change in real GNP/GDP r
0.2
5.1
4.4
NA
21
A
Confidential
 Appendix B
Detailed Country Statistics a (continued)
1960
1970
1980
1990 b
4,075
5,745
8,960
12,908
2,174
3,007
4,765
6,908
Dependency ratio d
0.874
0.911
0.880
0.869
Urbanization ratio =
0.297
0.487
0.668
0.7,73
Change in population, ages 15-64 r
2.2
3.3
4.7
3.8
Change in real GNP/GDP r
11.8
8.7
21.5
NA
Senegal
3,076
4,276
5,661
7,430
Population, ages 15-64 =
1,669
2,270
2,976
3,861
Dependency ratio d
0.843
0.884
0.902
0.924
0.227
1.9
Population, ages 15-64=
1,192
1,447
1,834
2,391
Dependency ratio d -
0.816
0.860
0.894
0.926
Urbanization ratio =
0.130
0.181
0.246
0.322
Change in population, ages 15-64 f
1.6
2.0
2.4
2.7
Change in real GNP/GDP f
4.4
4.6
1.2
NA
Population, ages 15-64 =
894
1,200
1,618
1,902
Dependency ratio d
0.828
0.729
0.477
0.426
Urbanization ratio
0.776
0.753
0.741
0.750
Change in population, ages 15-64 r
4.3
3.
33.0
1.6
Change in real GNP/GDP r
5.5
9.3
9.0
NA
Somalia
Population, total =
2,274
2,789
4,637
5,938
Population, ages 15-64 =
1,261
1,521
2,465
2,947
Dependency ratio d
0.803
0.834
0.881
1.015
Urbanization ratio =
0.173
0.231
0.301
0.381
Change in population, ages 15-64 f
1.7
1.9
4.9
1.8
Change in real GNP/GDP f
2.3
2.5
0.1
NA
? From Demographic Indicator of Countries. United Nations, 1982,
and The Planetary Product in 1980: A Creative Pause?, Herb
Block, 1982.
b Projected.
= Thousands of persons.
d Population under 15 and over 64 relative to population 15 to 64.
. Urban population relative to total population.
f Average annual percent change for preceding decade.
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1960
1970
1980
1990b
South Korea
Population, total
25,003
31,923
38,455
45,022
Population, ages 15-64 =
13,684
17,440
23,911
29,484 I
Dependency ratio d
0.827
0.830
0.608
0.527
I
Urbanization ratio
0.277
0.407
0.548
0.652
I
Change in population, ages 15-64 r
2.0
2.5
3.2
2.1
Change in real GNP/GDP r
4.7
8.4
8.2
NA
SriLanka
Population, total C
9,889
12,514
14,815
18,066
Population, ages 15-64 C
5,372
6,815
8,810
11,242
Dependency ratio d
0.841
0.836
0.682
0.607
Urbanization ratio c
0.179
0.219
0.266
0.329
Change in population, ages 15-64 r
2.4
2.4
2.6
2.5
I
Change in real GNP/GDP r
4.5
4.6
4.1
NA
Sudan
Population, total=
11,256
14,090
18,371
24,491
Population, ages 15-64 =
5,989
7,521
9,734
12,785
Dependency ratio d
0.879
0.873
0.887
0.916
Urbanization ratio
0.103
0.164
0.248
0.340
Change in population, ages 15-64 r
1.9
2.3
2.6
2.8
Change in real GNP/GDP r
4.5
1.4
3.2
NA
Suriname
Population, total =
290
371
388
527
Population, ages 15-64 c
140
169
173
262
Dependency ratio d
1.071
1.195
1.243
1.011
Urbanization ratio
0.472
0.458
0.448
0.474 I
Change in population, ages 15-64 r
1.9
1.9
0.2
4.2
Change in real GNP/GDP r
9.0
7.3
2.0
NA
Swaziland
,
Population, total C
345
430
557
754
Population, ages 15-64=
186
227
288
384
Dependency ratio d
0.855
0.894
0.934
0.964 I
.
Urbanization ratio.
0.038
0.074
0.088
0.115
Change in population, ages 15-64 r
1.9
2.0
2.4
2.9
I
Change in real GNP/GDP r
7.1
9.6
5.1
NA
Confidential
 Population, total '
4,561
6,258
8,977
13,227
Population, ages 15-64
2,363
2,923
4,427 -
6,501
Dependency ratio d
0.930
1.141
1.028
1.035
Urbanization ratio c
0.368
0.433
0.503
0.573
Change in population, ages 15-64 f
2.2
2.1
4.2
3.9
Change in real GNP/GDP f
2.0
6.6
8.3
NA
Tanzania
Population, total '
10,201
13,300
17,934
24,774
Population, ages 15-64
5,539
6,978
9,142
12,474
Dependency ratio d
0.842
0.906
0.962
0.986
Urbanization ratio.
0.048
0.069
0.118
0.181
Change in population, ages 15-64 r
2.1
2.3
2.7
3.2
Change in real GNP/GDP r
Thailand
Population, total '
27,229
36,499
47,063
57,890
Population, ages 15-64
13,901
18,994
26,236
35,605
Dependency ratio d
0.959
0.922
0.794
0.626
Urbanization ratio'
0.125
0.132
0.144
0.175
Change in population, ages 15-64 r -
2.1
3.2
3.3
3.1
Change in real GNP/GDP r
4.4
8.0
7.1
NA
Togo
Population, totals
1,506
2,020
2,625
3,577
Population, ages 15-64C
803
1,051
1,355
1,817
Dependency ratio d
0.875
0.922
0.937
0.969
Urbanization ratio -
0.098
0.131
0.174
0.232
Change in population, ages 15-64 r
2.0
2.7
2.6
3.0
Change in real GNP/GDP r
2.5
7.9
3.4
NA
Trinidad and Tobago
Population, ages 15-64 ' -
447
565
729
894
Dependency ratio d
0.886
0.818
0.602
0.496
Urbanization ratio r
0.222
0.215
0.215
0.245
Change in population, ages 15-64 f
2.4
2.4
2.6
2.1
Change in real GNP/GDP f
11.2
3.5
4.3
NA
From Demographic Indicator of Countries, United Nations. 1982,
and The Planetary Product in 1980: A Creative Pause?, Herb
Black, 1982.
s Projected.
Thousands of persons.
d Population under 15 and over 64 relative to population 15 to 64.
=Urban population relative to total population.
r Average annual percent change for preceding decade.
 -
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Appendix B (continued)
1960
1970
1980
1990^
Tunisia
I
Population, total c
4,221
5,127
6,354
7,989 I
Population, ages 15-64c
2,215
2,563
3,483
4,694 I
Dependency ratio d
0.906
1.000
0.824
0.702
Urbanization ratio
0.360
0.435
0.517
0.594 I
Change in population, ages 15-64 r
1.3
1.5
3.1
3.0
Change in real GNP/GDP r
3.3
7.4
8.6
NA
Uganda
,
Population, total c
6,806
9,806
13,201
18,262
t
Population, ago 15-64c
3,652
5,153
6,822
9,274
Dependency ratio d
0.864
0.903
0.935
0.969
Urbanization ratio a
0.052
0.080
0.119
0.172
Change in population, ages 15-64 r
2.7
3.5
2.8
3.1
Change in real GNP/GDP r
3.2
4.3
-0.1
NA
United Arab Emirates
Population, total c
90
223
726
1,025
Population, ago 15-64 c
48
140
489
660
Dependency ratio d
0.875
0.593
0.485
0.553
Urbanization ratio ?
0.400
0.570
0.719
0.802
Change in population, ages 15-64 r
2.4
11.3
13.3
3.0 I
Change in real GNP/GDP r
7.9
17.6
8.8
NA I
Upper Volta
I
Population, total c
4,354
5,413
6,908
9,067 I
Population, ago 15-64 c
2,363
2,880
3,632
4,711 I
Dependency ratio d
0.843
0.880
0.902
0.925 I
Urbanization ratios
0.047
0.068
0.085
0.113 I
Change in population, ages 15-64 r
1.9
2.0
2.3
2.6
Change in real GNP/GDP r
3.3
2.9
3.6
NA
.
Uruguay
I
Population, total c
2,531
2,824
2,924
3,166 I
Population, ages 15-64 c
1,618
1,785
1,828
1,964 I
Dependency ratio d
0.564
0.582
0.600
0.612
Urbanization ratio c
0.801
0.821
0.840
0.861
Change in population, ages 15-64 r
1.3
1.0
0.2
0.7
Change in real GNP/GDP r
2.9
1.6
2.2
NA
25
Confidential
 Appendix B
Detailed Country Statistics a (continued)
Population, total =
7,550
10,962
15,620
21,284
Population, ages 15-64c
3,876
5,637
8,601
12,104
Dependency ratio d
0.948
0.945
0.816
0.758
Urbanization ratio c
0.666
0.762
0.833
0.875
Change in population, ages 15-64 r
3.3
3.8
4.3
3.5
Change in real GNP/GDP r
6.6
4.5
7.3
NA
Yemen, North
i
Population, total =
4,039
4,835
5,812
7,447
Population, ages 15-64 c
2,197
2,604
2,963
3,869
Dependency ratio d
0.838
0.857
0.962
0.925
Urbanization ratio=
0.034
0.060
0.102
0.159
Change in population, ages 15-64 r
2.0
1.7
1.3
2.7
Change in real GNP/GDP f
2.5
2.5
6.9
NA
Yemen, South
I
Population, total=
1,208
1,497
1,858
2,459
Population, ages 15-64 c
632
777
953
1,298
Dependency ratio d
0.911
0.927
0.950
0.894
Urbanization ratio a
0.280
0.321
0.369
0.433
Change in population, ages 15-64 r
2.0
2.1
2.1
3.1
Change in real GNP/GDP r
2.5
2.4
2.9
NA
Zaire
Population, total c
17,756
21,638
28,291 -
37,692:
Population, ages 15-64 c -
9,383
11,449
14,873
19, 699
Dependency ratio d
0.892
0.890
0.902
0.913:
Urbanization ratio
0.223
0.303
0.395
0.486
Change in population, ages 15-64 r
2.3
2.0
2.7
2.9.
Change in real GNP/GDP f
6.1
5.4
0.6
NA
Zambia
Population, total c
3,207
4,242
5,766
8,079,
Population, ages 15-64 c
1,683
2,178
---i,901
3,996!
Dependency ratio d
0.906
0.948
0.988
1 0221
Urbanization ratio C
0.230
0.300
0.381
0.464
Change in population, ages 15-64 r
2.4
2.6
2.9
3.3
Change in real GNP/GDP r
5.8
4.5
-0.1
NA
a From Demographic Indicator of Countries, United Nations, 1982,
and The Planetary Product in 1980: A Creative Pause?, Herb
Block, 1982.
b Projected.
c Thousands of persons.
d Population under 15 and over 64 relative to population 15 to 64.
Urban population relative to total population.
r Average annual percent change for preceding decade.
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0.230 0.303
3.2 3.5
2.3 NA
25X1
Appendix B (continued)
1960
1970
1980 19906
Zimbabwe
I
Population, total =
3,605
5,309
7,396 10,489
Population, ages 15-64=
1,868
2,695
3,697 5,196
Dependency ratio n
0.930
0.970
1.001 1.019
Urbanization ratio t
0.126
0.169
Change in population, ages 15-64 r
3.9
3.7
Change in real GNP/GDP r
7.2
5.8
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uonI oenual
Confidential