JAPAN: NAKASONE CONTEMPLATES DOUBLE ELECTIONS

• Document Type: CREST
• Collection: General CIA Records
• Document Number (FOIA) /ESDN (CREST): CIA-RDP85T00287R000401000002-7
• Release Decision: RIPPUB
• Original Classification: S
• Document Page Count: 4
• Document Creation Date: December 22, 2016
• Document Release Date: August 9, 2010
• Sequence Number: 2
• Publication Date: April 19, 1983
• Content Type: MEMO

Sanitized Copy Approved for Release 2010/08/09: CIA-RDP85T00287R000401000002-7
G J A 1 I I
DIRECTORATE OF INTELLIGENCE
19 April 1983
Japan: Nakasone Contemplates "Double Elections"
In our judgment, Prime Minister Nakasone probably has not
yet made a decision to dissolve the Lower House and go to the
polls in conjunction with the Upper House elections which must be
held this summer. But he must decide in the near future, and we
believe momentum is building in favor of holding double
elections. A good showing by the ruling LDP in local elections
on 24 April may be the deciding factor.
The Debate
LDP leaders are debating the pros and cons of holding double
elections. Those opposed focus on possible losses of LDP seats
in both the Lower and Upper House. Former Prime Ministers
Fukuda, Miki and faction leader Komoto are in this camp,
They believe Nakasone is too
controversial and that more time is needed to improve his public
image before seeking a public vote of confidence. According to
the press, even some members of Nakasone's faction, including
Deputy Chief Cabinet Secretary Fujinami, have advised Nakasone
that a significant loss of LDP seats is possible. Nonetheless
all faction leaders who are opposing double elections are
reported to have urged their followers to be prepared for them.
This memorandum was prepared byl Japan Branch,
Northeast Asia Division, Office of East Asian Analysis.
Information available as of 19 April 1983 was used in its
preparation. Comments and queries are welcome and may be
directed to the Chief, Japan Branch, Northeast Asia Division,
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Those LDP members who believe elections should be held,
accordin to the press are suggesting 26 June as the most likely
date.
supporters of a double election argue that:
-- Most LDP Lower House candidates have already begun
election campaigns on the assumption that double
elections will be held in June. A significant portion of
their campaign funds has already been spent, and
contributors--especially big business--will be reluctant
to supply funds again next year.
-- Low voter turnout would hurt the LDP, and Upper House
elections alone cannot sustain voter interest.
-- Despite the Nakasone Cabinet's poor showing in public
opinion polls, support for the party itself has changed
little.
The leftist opposition parties are in poor financial
shape to conduct a nationwide campaign. In addition, the
media are giving wide play to Levchenko's charges in his
book that leading Socialist Party members acted as Soviet
agents.
Prime Minister Nakasone could exploit media coverage of
his forthcomin trips to the Williamsburg Economic Summit
and to ASEAN.
demonstration that he is dominated by Tanaka.
because his opponents could charge this action was another
Nakasone's Dilemma
Nakasone probably favors a double election this summer to
consolidate his political base. However, in addition to concern
that the LDP might lose seats, we believe he probably is hesitant
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Outlook
At a 13 April press conference, Nakasone stated that "as a
matter'of principle" the Lower House should serve out its term--
until June 1984--and that he has no plan to hold an early
election. Nonetheless, with Tanaka's strong urging, we believe
Nakasone privately is edging toward holding double elections this
sunrner. According to the Japanese press, Nakasone considers his
low popularity less damaging than the impact of the expected
guilty verdict against Tanaka at the conclusion of the Lockheed
trial this fall.
As a campaign platform he could cite:
-- Successfully getting the budget through the Diet.
-- Implementation of economic stimulative measures in March.
-- His promise to consider a tax cut later in 1983.
A watershed could be the local elections on 24 April.
Although the press played up LDP losses in local voting on 10
April in Fukuoka and Hokkaido, in reality the party scored
impressive gains in most of the 13 prefectures. They gained
seats in many local assemblies and councils. If the party does
well on 24 April, Nakasone may read this as a sign of national
strength and opt for elections this summer.
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SUBJECT: Japan: Nakasone Contemplate
s "Double Elections"
Original
DDI
1
D/OEA
1
C/OEA/NA
1
C/OEA/NA/J
1
C/Production/OEA
1
PDB Staff
1
C/NIC
1
NIO/EA
1
Executive Director
1
DDI Registry
5
CPAS/IMC/CB
1
D/OCR
2
C/OCR/ISG
1
C/PES
1
C/DDO/EA
1
FR/RR
1
NIO/EA
1
James Murphy, USTR
Joseph Massey, USTR
James Jackson, Department
Albert Seligman, Departmen
of State
t of State
Don Westmore, Department of State
David Peterson, Department of Commerce
Defense Intelligence Agency
DDI/OEA/NEA/Japan
(19 April 1983)
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